It seem like the Global recover is real and the dollar will fail to rebound . Even with joined" statement " from central bank around the world to pop the dollar but the dollar get hit to the new low again ...
Anyway, the equity will be on the upward moment , please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip.
Today the Europe broke a hard to barrier 1.50 to a dollar, do not bobe well for the dollar ..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aZe662Jvrd_s
The world is recovering while the US economy is try to stop the bleeding...investor have to decided if they would like to invest in economy which is recovering or invest in low yield investment like bond and dollar with bubble risk .. For me I will hold less of dollar and buy commodities cause the initial stage of the recover will push the commoditity to all time high...
I recalled yestersday come across a news regarding obama said on the news" he will do what ever it take to revivie growth" I could not locate the news anymore, but it seem more dollar will pump into economy with more treasury auction down the road.
I am still look to short treasury, still weight for right timing ..
I have being busy with my business for the pass few day and schedule will be is quite tight, please pardon me if I run a bit late
I will extend commentary later
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Today take profit from oil position
ReplyDeleteselling @ 79.85 buy @ 76.80, might try to re-enter,
Euro break, 1.50 barrier might take a few days to consolidation, you market will be bumpy ..
Hi Allen and CBS,
ReplyDeleteYou have brought up a point I have been thinking about for some time and that is stop loss orders.
When I put them on, they get triggered and then the stock makes a recovery and I'm having to buy back at a higher price. It seems like "they" do that and the stock recovers almost immediately. Still, I know all traders use stop loss orders and it would have been wise to have had one for YONG as it has gone down quite a bit in the last few trading sessions. May I ask what stop loss orders all of you use.
I put my stop loss quite deep , as sometime the market will try to trigger some stop before rebound, got to becareful because when put on the stop loss during this speculative market..
ReplyDeletehm a difficould question there is no rule how to do it best, i can only give u an example how i manage it with corn..
ReplyDeletei bought first position corn at retest of 200mva, if such a important levl beakes i know chances are high that price goes down very fast..so a stop under 200mva
try to built your positions carefully, never just jump in with all u want to put in the position at one time,buy a little wait price reaction, if it moves in your direction buy more..maybe raise some stops protect profit..if it moves against u never buy more, thers something wrong, try to cut position half, if its easyier for u than selling all, but u must prevent that u carry ur loosers with u around to long ..and sell ur winners to fast..i have still shares form dot com bubble hehe
2nd part of position bought today with stopmarket order a little above breakoutlevl..
stop still placed at same point..if market moves against me i would about 1-2% of my totalmoney..
It seem like every investor will have to learn to make mistake before success... :)
ReplyDeleteTodAy I thought the oil will other pull before a rally . Seem like I have to chase oil again. Anyway position is takes , looking for opportunity to buy oil on dip
ReplyDeleteStock to watch
ReplyDeletemacdonald have some bad new over the bloom
berg , any idea?
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI think the nat gas should have upward momentum from today action
hehe oil is driving me crazy too, earlier was happy that i sold it now also thinking hard..
ReplyDeletehave the dot coms in other depot, hope the are bust now, is horribel selling is more expensive than what the are worth..team comunication next emtv hehe
Thanks for the help. I think scaling in is a good idea. Sometimes I do and sometimes I don't. I think it should be a hard and fast rule for me. Also, I am going to set deep stop loss orders.
ReplyDeleteToday is a good example of why I was reluctant to set stop losses. I had bought CHNR early last month at 10.69 - it went below 10.00 and now today, for the first time it is over 12.00.
I can't find a blessed thing wrong with YONG. They completed a manufacturing reorganization which to my mind is a good thing. Having a vertical organization at times of inflation sounds good to me. I will ponder what to do.
Pred, I am amazed at how right you have been about oil. So many 'oil traders' have shorted it. Myself, I don't want to touch it either way.
Also, good trade on corn, wheat for all.
Allen ,
ReplyDeleteit is the way of investment, you never what will happen next . It is not a bad to take some profit . Any good dinner to night ;)
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI trade oil and all my investment ebase on dollar fundamental , i have say for quite time it just that people only believe it whenthe time pass and the position prove to be right. But it will then be too late.
The next run up will be soft commodity I think. With oil price plus the el niño whether I bet the soft commodity just start it next leg.
Gold have being lag for the past few week but should well too
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWow, what happened? I leave for an hour and look at stocks. Could Bove downgrade of WF cause this?
I have some soft commodities but I think I will add to that soon. May be tomorrow.
Hope all of you have good trade.
BTW, MDM had new price target put on it by some analyst - changed from 2.70 to 3.40. This stock is very steady in its uptrend. We'll see.....
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteyeah NGas is doing fine. I think you take your crude oil profit a bit too early. It may go dip down a bit, but it looks like still have more upside, i hope.. ? Anyone bot Soybeans yesterday i suggested? It broke out today.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletemy Coffee also doing fine, thinking to short it later on the way up.
Anthony
Hi Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI am abit busy so always put me uncomfortable for some position which do not have confident which oil have made me quite uncomfortable in term of price movement deep problem in crude oil...
Anyway, the postion is taken should have waiting abit more ...
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteTight stop loss is good for daily trade.
If your posiiton mean for daily, tight stop loss is a must ...cause sometime the trading will be wild which you might be able to get a better enter durin the day if you made wrong move early in the trading ...
=====
Wheat and corn is doing well so far ... as expected ... let hope the rally will last till next year.
I have brought Dec and march contract back two month ago...
All position look good
I will update my position soon ...
Average, this month another 25% gain .. :)
bought carefully into wheat today.. at the retest of 200mva, my best trades in past were around this moving mva, not much leverage this time..selloff yesterday made me little concerned..
ReplyDeletereally stupid as it was cheap i argued with preditor about wheat, now its expensive i buy it...also hoping for that magic crossing in timingcharts..large traders cover shorts now..
comercials reduce long..
Thank you Pred and everyone for your help with stop loss orders. For daily trade, would 2% trailing stop be good? And for a longer position, 10%?
ReplyDeleteVery happy for you Pred on your profits this month. That's an amazing figure. :)
Good luck to all.
Hi everyone, running abit later again today ...
ReplyDeleteShirley,
ReplyDeleteFor daily trading the stop should be around 0.8%- 1.3% ... don't to too far out cause it will mean nothing for daily as 2% is almost the bottom of the daily trading range ... it will alos have to depend on the daily swing of the stock too ...
Yestersday for the past two days I think the stock need to condoilidate first, so two ago I recommend to wait and buy on dip ...
Yestersday the signal not so clear did not make any reccommed on equity
Thank you Pred.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I tell you what I am doing is so you can correct me. I don't know people personally who trade regularly so its much appreciated.
And you were right about not buying a few days ago. I sold YONG. A painful lesson.
I still would like to hear from you and others about a good stop for long term trades.
I have to go for the day.
Let see... if there is anything to buy ...today
ReplyDeleteStill waiting for clearer signal
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteCorn, Soybeans, Wheat, Coffee are okay. No selling, yet. Today not much action. I think, the next mover may be the Bond markets will start to go down?? Oil still go up. Today not much to do. I bot more Soybeans.
Anthony
is it a good day to buy dag or dba today?
ReplyDeleteAdding some oil today .. @ 80.70
ReplyDeletehm think preditor only bought oil,because watching his grains rise every day is kind of boring..*g*
ReplyDeleteallen ,
ReplyDeletesorry to be bore here,
manage to add more oil @ 80.20 and up swing we go ..
Look like the Euro is stablizing @ 1.50 area...
if the condoildation period is done ... prepare for the next upleg ..
Hi mambo ...
ReplyDeleteI have track DAG and DBA, what commoditity does this two EFT covered?
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI am now focusing on commoidity trade ...
so we are still long way to go ..
hm today some of the soft comos managed to rise eaven bevor dollar weakend..
ReplyDeletethey also yesterday didnt react much to the selloff in stocks..
hm just raising some stops
staying in game with wheat and corn too..bought otc my oil stock back..try to sell them tomorror
my sell signal will be a day when dollar manages to strengthen more than 1%
was just fun with crude watching this charts going up and down,thats reason that scares me away from playing crude leverged with derivates..
finally the long waited reversal took position short gbp/euro target 0,94..
ReplyDeletebought more weath hope that i have read euro/dollar chart right 1,4990 holds..
ReplyDeleteSorry ... Business getting busy, runing late agaiin ..
ReplyDeleteOpening a news tread
so iam off
ReplyDeletereally interesting day..
overpaid for weath..*G*
keeping my short pound..
sold 50% corn..
hm bernanke speaking later, i better not listen always want to buy lots of gold after his speaks...
time for lots of beer *G*
Pred,
ReplyDeletewe have a big drop on Crude Oil yeterday. Do you think this rally is over??? Gold may go down to less than $1000/oz ? Dollar really go up, looks strong bounce ? So, what to do with Oil, Wheat, Corn, Silver ? I am confuse looking at US Dollar's direction. How come it looks like go up but fundamental so weak?
Anthony
hi pred,
ReplyDeletedba is deutche's etf on their agri index that tracks wheat, corn, soybean and sugar with 25% weighting each. dag is a 2x note on dba.
i dun play futures, so this 2 etf/n are my best instruments.
I'm a agriculture bull and own some POT, sitting on some 10% paper profit. So now, I'm just waiting a right time to go into the etf/etn directly.
I missed the breakout that happened past 2 weeks, so now I'm not sure if i should buy on pullback or wait a while as the general short term trend in s&p is downward....
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletei cut down my Crude Oil positions, take half positions profit out. Still have half intact. We may have correction? Anybody buy Soybeans, Soymeal, SoyOil? They're going up more. Watch USD.JPY to breakdown. Still waiting to buy more gold, correction is coming?? Hey do you heard twin car bombs in Baghdad in the weekend? The US soldiers won't leave Iraq, thus Dollar should go down more, gold more or less flat here? I wish to go down more so i can buy.
Anthony
Hey, anyone buys Rice? Typhooon in the Philippine destroyed many paddy fields, shortage of rice now
ReplyDeleteAnthony
hi mambo and everyone ...
ReplyDeleteI have open a new tread ... and will post extended commentary in new blog,