New Trend Established ? .... Dollar lose value and wall on the leg down ....

The market make a late rebound but did not rally like I planned..

So the S&P is under pressure, if this is a bear trap this will a good one . I bet this is will really hurt the bear as I see the bear confident is gaining .... I might be wong...

From speculative view, this is what I would like to see.... the stock market is in the unpredictable zone where bull are limited, bull are afraid to extend the rally which we see the bull got kill faster Like the index hammer down fast then the bear is harder to kill due to more retailer try to short the market that is why the rebound take longer time to recovered. This is my understanding and if my undertsand is correct then we will see a rally within the next two tradeing session to a new high will be established...

1060 or 1080 this range will next target ? great possible...

Commentary on the market

Why I anticipated a late rally or rebound , from speculative view good news and sentiment in the open market is to lured the bull into the market , then Bull squeeze process begin, once the boy got enough victim like what I see now..they got the bull ... then the second part will be bear squeeze proccess .

Current sentiment will try to lure the bear out now... so I will not be surprise to see the S&P under pressure the in medium trading seesion

You can try to check past trading session this is always the case...

.. which is why I anticipate a rebound or rally later today... anyway the whole proccess will depend if they got enough victim ... might take another trading session if the process is not complete...

I might be wrong ... I will keep my position for now ...

I am a speculative now, I don;t buy or sell on daily news instead I planned my trading which is good for speculative market environment ..

I don't try to know the market, I try to understand their strategy .....

Why I think the rally will continues this is inside my thought , the boy got better profit when trader is in unpredictable market which create nervous mood like what we experience, because nervous create a sensitive mood, for the bull and the bears which is good to lay trap for both...but as investor we will would like to profit from market and will be lured to daily trading ...


Ok I might be wrong but I will still keep this trend for the time being.


Like a said early, if this is a bear trap and this will be a big one... as bear is gaining confident because they are make to believe even good news cannot make the market rally (good news is a bears market and bad is the bull market sound tricky )


From today trading, I feel something big is going to happen or change, the stock went down as the dollar... something fishy? I have a feeling that the dollar will be beaten down in the nears future. But for the stock I am not sure.

If we are going to see recovery in the next 3 - 6 month and the stock will be in higher position today then it make no sense to me that the big boy will let the market go down and let the retailer scope up the cheap stock ... This might be a one shoot rally but this rally will be full of trap.

So how about treasury, with continues trade deficit and budget deficit .... well ,, I will keep my short for now and I see what will unfold next weeks.

I am turning my attention to gold and crude oil, planning to accumulate some position.. Next week will be a start of the new month and I believe something big is going to happen and unexpected .... Just keep a big eye ...

Sentiment look bearish to me from the last week market movement but I will keep all my long in S&P @ 1019 and short trasury @ average 101 .86

It is more difficult to be a speculative then be a fundamentist as to be a speculative I have to defy all the logic and my feeling and focus on trading strategy..

Hope this new week will be grand to everyone...

Keep all my position carry overnight... Anticipal a rally today?

What a ride today, add a a quit a big position Long in the S$P @ 1016, some @ 1017, 1021, 1023 average S&P @ 1019..

Long oil some @ 71 twice big position @ 70 average at 70.40.

Short treasury @ 102 , 101.87 and 101.71

Natgas not looking good.... planning to add oct contract ...

I anticipate a late rally in today trading session look out for a tricky start...

Good trade every one

Short Treasury .... Should go long in S&P ?

I have re- adjustment to my position before market close... Close all my short @ 1025 and made 9 posint again and put long position @ 1025 and will add more if the S&P is in downward pressure today session..

Start short Treasury @ 102 and will start short aggressive for day to come...

Got a tired day so try to update my position again ...

Good trade every one

Carry my short overnight...Should we short the treasury?

Today, the market did not went as my plan which my a sharp bound in the early session but end with a small gain at the end of the market which is not impress with a "feel good " news..

I will carry all my short overnight and see what tomorrow will be ... (extended comment on stock after my commentary on treasury)

Talking about treasury... manage close my short on treasury @ good timing and made a made 3% gain I see the treasury is raising which is not a good sigh for stock tomorrow Wednesday so might see a short term pressure in the S&P the next few session .... hanging tight to the short for a while....

Today I got one news which really got my attention on the bloomberg .. which the Goldman senior chief economist said that the Fed might expand it balance sheet to 4 trillion . I try to find the news on the bloomberg but it got removed. and the project for governement deficit is 7-9 trillion (I believe the figure will go higher ) http://www.examiner.com/x-21433-Middlesex-County-Libertarian-Examiner~y2009m8d25-9-Trillion-deficit-No-7-Trillion--Bad-either-way .. it is time to short the Treasury ?? The Fed is planning to end bond buying at the end of october ..... will they extend?? First I think might I short focus on shorting treasury..... Waiting for clear signal... the time is soon...

Hanging tight ..... good profit is a round the coner ...


Good trade everyone

Hitting range in S&P , make some profit in Treasury, some loss in the Nat Gas future...What next ... ?

I have being quite busy did not have time to update my blog which I will be busy for next 10 day to manage my business,, which is not fair to post my daily trading at the end of the day.

The market went as I have anticipated which you can refer back my planned trading range.... which result in good a very good trading session for me...

Sell my long at 1031 , 1032 and 1033, play a few short @ 1034 ..... Planning to covered short start of today (Tuesday ) trading session which my target 1015 - 1020 will place a large long position @ 1012, start to accumulate long at 1015 downward

What is next ... Anticipated early downward momentum in the S&P will use this opportunity to cover the short and wait for opportunity to go long.

For treasury shorting on Monday was a good play and make some short covering and will short more later Maybe on Wednesday will also look for opportunity later today Tuesday..

Nat Gas... I will roller over my Nat Gas contract to october may add more october contract...


The Oil and nat gas ratio is at 19 years high .... I see two trading option for Nat Gas play... Either Short oil or Long Nat Gas in the future or UNG.... which by consideration the short term will be long Nat Gas which I think the Nat gas make some rebounding after contract september expired and will look to short oil start @ US$78 - US$80.00 .... (Pateint with the short) Don;t have much luck on the energy sector so I start to do in small invest like 15% of my fund until I comfortable before adding more of my fund ...

Good trade every one ...

Becareful of Bull and trap..

Market seem to moving into my favourite position... And it seem to me like two way trap is forming... bull and bear trap... Like I said thing will get very tricky from here on....

Planning to sell long @ 1026 - 1030 range might have to adjust trading range if the bull is strong then anticipated...


Make some short on treasury yesterday... might add more short...

Good trade every one

Just Back from Business Trip... What a hell of the weeks ....

I miss my prediction by almost 12 point I only anticipated the correction at 990 but it seem like it look pretty bad and the index dig down ... No one the 100% accurate but missing too much will cause to miss huge opportunity..

Preparing for the next short ...

What to expect, why there is a sell off , bear taking control? Let analyst

This week will make a very interesting weekly commentary which I would like to share some of my thought .Today market get ready bad in the begining (we just touch a few high) but fail to break the Tuesday Low which is 992 and close above Tuesday high...

From Speculative View:

During intraday trading make a "U" rebound and "w" up closing ... Look like testing the bear and bull trading pattern.


What about Monday ... Monday might make another test at 992 area and might end @ 1006 high the end of the day.


From Fundamental view,
Look like a strong bear is forming like I wrote in my blog on 7 of August http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/08/from-bull-turning-to-bear-when-will-be.html .

From this level there will be a lot of bear which will short most of the stock at this level and bull reluctant to go long which I believe that to ignite a short covering the S&P will go to a new high which my first target is 1020 - 1030 area.. and planning to start major short at this position.

Next week will be very trick cause all news pointing S&P downward but will there be any "unexpected surprise" ...

Talking treasury Auction and linking to stock selling... I think should find opportunity to short bond and long emerging market.


Good trading every one

Chart and technical, it is safe to analysis ?

Chart, technical or trading average can be manipulated, With big wars chest in Hand, G.s and gang easily manipulate trading number.. I have long throw those (Chart, technical or trading average) out of my trading strategy unless the SEC regulate or overhaul the trading platform which should be quite sometime to change I will not complicate my trade strategy with unreliable statistic ..

Like I said, QE is on, interest rate at near zero, there is still room for the stock to run .... just beware of the bear trap on the way...


Be patient there will be big money to be earn in short.... timing is important....

Talking of the news from Germany and French really surprise the market which come just in time to counter bad news from U.S will this be the trend where a good new from one economy counter bad from other economy? Time will tell.

Long S&P at 1005 before Yestersday closing?

From yestersday Fed statement, QE is on , no interest raise on card.... So Everything will go up ... only dollar will go down...

When will this end ? Maybe in about a month.

Also beware of a few bear trap on the ways up ... like I said thing will get trickier from here..

Yesterday load a few long contract at 1005 ... may be adding more at the opening... Today will be interesting

Have accumulate a quit a position in Nat Gas @ 3.52 and 3.50 which bring down my averge price to 3.65... hope everything go well... My Nat gas is long term play .. looking to accumulate more on the way..

Good Trade every one.

Short or Long ...

For the next two trading will be treacherous and tricky, but intra day trading should be very rewarding.

I anticipated a fast recovery in this correction... probably by this Thursday....

Looking to long S&P at 990 (major position) which should be a strong hold for this sell off , 988, 986 respectively if it touch .....

Today trading will be monitor closely still bullish on the Market... I might be wrong .

My reason is that the QE will be on for quite some time, and the major bank like GS is still holding on to cash rather lend out to real economy, some this money is believe to be in the market and will be in the market until real sector start picking up...

I bet is that the market might rally to a new high soon probably 1060 or 1080 or 1100, before a real correction start and I bet that the correction might take us down about 20-25% before a new strong bull rally beginning...

Keep an big eye on the market... as I expect to make big profit if my bet is right....


Finally I come a cross a report on the VIX report on bloomberg the link is here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anWx7LRgrFtc which really caught my attention which make me believe the rally will be extended and if there is a selloff in the S&P will really caught the market off guard just like this rally caught a lot of investor off... G.s and Gang they have very very bigh war chest and they will bet against market just to trap investor.

They have the most sophicated trading system... so beware thing will get more and more tricky
from here on


Good trade every one

S&P side way ? Today Trading

Anticipating a rebounding in the early trading session and close flat or small loss at market closing...My take is sell S&P @ 1012 in the early trading and buy back at 1005.... Will update gain in pre market opening...

Good trade every one

Today Bull or Bear...?

Anticipating some correction early in the trading session with late small gain in the S&Pat the end of the market...

If there a huge pull back in the the S&P I planning to add more position....

Currently I do not have any stock pick as most of the company stock are in overbrought and there not much valuation left to buy..

As S&P it is easier to predict due to speculative index.

Looking for opportunity to accumulate Nat Gas @ good position will update the detail in my blog.

Good trade every one


Planning to turn bear sometime in the distant future

From a Bull turning to Bear when will be the best timing?

For a million dollar question... who have the accurate timing will be a millionaire ....

I think the market is forming a strong bear which I use to add some small short position in the S&P ... but 1020 anticipating will be another bear trap, which I will try to short small position at 1022 , 1024 ,1026 and 1030 respectively and buy back at 1010, 1012, 1014 and decending order.

From above range S&P Long at average 1012 to 1040 ..... anticipating major resistance at 1040 ... so might be shorting at this level but I have to see how the market forming in week to come ...

As for Nat Gas 3.55 will be secondary target .... things will be choppy... so have to see how market forming....

Good trading on Monday everyone..