Rally puzzel start to fit.... brace for finally and prepare to take profit..

Hi Everyone,

I have wrote since last 2 week that the stock rally rally will start to make sense in 2-3 weeks from now ... it seem like the rally support new is starting to hit the market ...

Recall when i wrote month ago about US is in re-stock mode not only US but technically the who;e world is re-stock...with US government job stimulas hitting the market starting next month .. I guese the market rally will extended ...

US outlook for the next two quarter the job situation in USA will start show strong sign of rebound but should be a temporary one ...rally is sweet but becareful once the news is too good to be true ... sell into the rally and start pile short .. from now the new rolling will be fundamental supported news .

the recent strong dollar might not be conincident, if dollar strength during inventories re-stock it mean that US is paying cheaper for good in exchange for dollar which be good for consumer as they will pay cheaper .... it is another way of stimulus spending while keep the inflation in check which will support bond.

However it sad that the job creation from export sector might have the side effect from the dollarstrength, if the dollar continues to march toward 85 (when compare with major currency) which i see there is some chance but still conservative.. then i think the trade deficit for US and trade partner will be widen which should not be good for dollar in long run but for short run it is like heroine (too good to be true)as matter of fact i believe the coming trade report should show huge increase in deficit .... which mean the government will need to auction more treasury... this is not going to look good my friend ..

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EURO

The recent Greek and Portugal problem is still weight some pressure on EURO with Spain, italy is on the list of joining the list ...EURO dollar stll look bearsh for now


The way EURO handle greek for me i think it really fixed long term deficit problem for EURO zone economy, not only Greek but all member in EURO zone but there will short term plain for economy ...but good for long run ...

In short term the Euro will still be under pressure but it will help the EURO fixed the trade deficit faster ....well maybe the Greek and Protugal will export more in the next quarter same for another Euro zone member.some their number is expect to be good or very good .

Depend on how weak is the EURO...

I am turning bullish on Euro zone economy except UK and Ireland.

Euro equites should continues side way momentum so i am happy for you if you still ply on the long side.. when to start selling stock in EURO economy ... my play is when the EUro start gaining strength, i mean real strength like 1.45 mark ..

Euro dollar:

Short term bearish 1-2 month.
Long term bullish.

Will start to place long position @ 1.25 ... now cross my finger ...
Strategy:
Short term strategy short EURO on strength like 1.35 -1.37 take profit every 1-2 precent. becarful don;t let the greediness get hold of you..

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Oil and Nagas.

I am still bullish on Oil bearish on Natgas....two week ago i wrote some commentary on oil and Natgas in http://seekingalpha.com/ section"commoditites today" you can detect my commentary as "predictor1976"

I wrote about Natgas as bearish since the price is about US$5.36...this is the link which post my commentary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192214-today-in-commodities-march-madness?source=commenter

Please on the thought here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192779-today-in-commodities-a-year-later-are-we-any-better-off?source=commenter

http://seekingalpha.com/article/193992-today-in-commodities-a-delusional-fed?source=commenter

http://seekingalpha.com/article/195828-today-in-commodities-keeping-the-faith?source=commenter

I think maintaining my first target for oil is US$85.00, if this mark touch then we will see US$90 - 95 mark.

Strategy= Long position , hold

Now i am waiting for short squeeze senario to happen in oil, which only U$90- 95 will effect force lot of short to cover this is the area where i will start to pile my short ....


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For gold and other commodites i will try to updatew again later ... will extend commentary


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