The falling knife and the next dead cat bound....

Hi everyone...

Thing is getting nasty nowsday...so let jump in.


For the past week it seem like the market is making new low every week but don't get carry away with the bearish sentiment cause market is getting complicated due to constant intervention. special toward the end of the month where alot of option future expired.

The data for the past two week is getting to spooky which look like we are heading to more problem ... QE ..... which in my book it is quantity error ....if QE did not born we will hit bottom by now... but quantity error will lead to more error and currency devalue...


world current status: overconsuming, overdebt and over print and finally over intervention which does not bode well to mid - long term. I have a feeling by end of 2012 there will be another crisis and will have serious impact to all of us so it is something to look out for.

China is show in sign of slowing down same as for india, I guess the mood of the market is not bode well,so the trend will continues to be bearish... but beware of intervention which obama and the Fed is showing sign of nervous...


For the economy to go forward, the soft commoditiy need to comedown, but the supply is a great issue due to bad weather so I did not see much price presuure going forward, Oil need to come down but the libya is causing serious supply issue in the world oil output, so a serious correction is in doubt in mid to long term but anything can happen in short term so be cautious.. Interest rate need to come down which I did not see that will happen at least in the next 3 month ... so after combine all this factor it is really difficult to put a bull flag.

China main problem will be water which had post a serious tread since begin of this years , but it is getting some relief for the past week due to rain.. at least the short - mid term is getting relief so I will give a small bull flag in here which should stimulate so manufacturing activity.. but raising commoditity price and oil is still posting tread here so I will put few bear flag here ... so is the interest rate ..

Japan is problem is the energy with the shifting of energy structure in Japan from nuclear to greener energy which natural gas is the most best alternative but in short term Japan will face energy problem due to shift in energy policy... the machinery order which come down and cause surprise but i guess it is due to nuclear crisis and will certain cause great delay in rebuilding plus uncerttianty in power supply this should come in no surprise for the machinery order fell in japan ....

Trading strategy : -

Stock Market Bearish ... be cautious when appoarching end of the month... I am suspecting a short squeeze ... so it is wise to take profit of 30-40 % from your short position one week before the end of the month and short on strength onmce the short squeeze is done.

Precious Metal . Long term, bullish but anything can happen in short term.. from the silver chart , I can see the 200 days moving average is creeping up ... so I think there is a great chance the silver will make more correction toward 33-34 ... so I might be a bit fast hand when eneter the position but I am long term bullish so I guess there will be some short term pain in my precious metal position ...

As for oil, if by this Wednesday the price do not breach US$96, I will start to add long position to oil..

For bond ... the price is getting nice to short, but patient always win... i will be a bit patientbefore going to short .


I will extend my commentary later on..

God be with you everyone..