Greatest Fund shifting... Environment and climate changing.

Hi everyone.

It is being a while since I wrote my thought and it seem like my blog will be monthly update with daily commentary update to my blog. The way I wrote here it trying to make everyone who come to the blog to follow throught all the monthly thought and it good to go over what we wrote and feel on the daily movement.

Ok now back to market.

After I took most of my profitfour week ago,

this is my update position : I only have some position left before I left the market.

Current position
Long position in (this a short term play)
Treasury @ 96.80
Short S&P @ 1190
Short euro /dollar between 1.36 - 137

Sell most of my position in commoditites include gold and silver (which seem like a bad move)

All my oil position @ 86.60.
Sell my gold position@ 1150 and silver @ 18.00

So now i am holding 80% of my cash.... looking for opportunity to enter new long position.


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Currency View.
Still maintain bearish stand on Euro. Look like the euro credit rating start to spread like i have anticipated . Euro will now start the final pharse of decline... cross my finger waiting to close my short and enter long in Euro .

Now the Japanese is getting my attention, it seem like the government debt is exploding while the market is keeping this under the radar, this will somehow starting to have effect on Yen and the situation will be getting deteriorate for the Yen, so everyone who start to pile long in Yen, might need to do more research. Yen is now tight to carry trade so thing will be abit complicate..

Dollar will gain short term wind but should use this wonderful opportunity to exit dollar . i am long term bearish on dollar and most flat currency like i wrote before so alternative long term currency holding will be gold and preious metal.

There is a few good currency which link to commoditites like canada, australia etc ...you can check out everbank, they good at currency view.
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Big Picture view.

US Economy and the world is still in re-stocking pharse , so there should more feel good story for time to come but, once this short term phenomenon end which i suspect will have another quarter to run ... so there will jigsaw move in the world market but the trend should be down ... this is something which you need to take note of.

Greek crisis and Portugal look like the next time bomb ... which bold well for my short in Euro, hope to hit my mark @ 124- 126 which I have start to take some profit from my short.

Seem like the Germany would like the Euro to be weaken which should bold for Germany and a few Euro zone economy in the next quarter like i have wrote in my previous letter.

But with the credit crisis start to spread fast, Germany better start to do demage control before the crisis spread like the 1998 south east asia financial crisis which start from Thailand and quickly spread to south east aisia country.


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Commodities outlook.

ok let talk about climate changing it is seem like the world is having a great shift is weather which could impact in global commodities supply and demand.


With raising Chinese and India medium class, i betting the commodities will have more run, weather and climatic have serious impact on the supply side while the demand keep rasing, any short term disruption in output will have serious impact in the commodities price.This is a thing which you guy need to take note of

http://www.almanac.com/forum/weather-forum/theos-astromet-forecast-el-nino-2010


Oil

After taking my profit in oil i am look to enter oil again but probably at lower range like US$72-73 range..now close my finger waiting for opportunity to go long.

the BP oil in the cost of US deep water drilling this will effect seafood and live stock which have unexpected out come of the price of seafood food item.. which should find some seafood stock in asia pacific region company to go long or comnpany which have right to fish in this region ..

This BP oil spill, just make me think how dangerous the deep sea drill is and will have huge impact on the oil price and environment for time to come. The world still have oil reserve, the only problem it is in far reach and dangerous area..

Commentary on oil market:
It is time for oil to face liquidation so i think the price could drove in deep a bit... but please beware this is only short term ... should look for opportunity to go long.


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Stock

After take my profit in S&P index, well at the time it look like well ahead but this is all about tricking the market. which i have fortunate to being able to add more short before the market clash.

I have not yet close my short position, i have a feeling this will be quite a severe correction... better go short or keep cash in hand if you are afraid to extend your short...

I think it is possible the correction to reach 1000 - 1050 range point in the s&P index, so it should be quite a run i think.

Please note that this is my personnel feeling , and just a prediction base on my crazy calculation ... please use your own gut and feeling when doing the investment ....

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Gold and precious metal.

it seem the bad move i make is in gold ( which i did not why i hit the sell button) but look ok in my silver position.

Althought the gold is looking bullish, but i still recluntant to add my gold position at this level, there is treasury auction going on so i think the "big boy" will have something up in their mind"beware".


I am bracing for the final rally and will sell my treasury @ 103.5 and will start to pull short ... but i will see again ..


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China outlook..

It seem like a lot of investor is betting China will belly up, betting against is worst then betting against USA ... We will see some slow down in the property activity, i did not see clashed, the debt per houshold in Chinese is still low so i will leave" the chinese will belly up thoery " for the next two years... but now let enjoy the growth.


Althought the chinese is curbing lending in the property market, in shanhai and big city, but the world expo will generate alot of income for chinese and which will result in stability in preperty market in Chinese market. Which i did not see the chinese preperty market will pop but i think we will see slower growth wh9ich is good for long run.

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Investment strategy:

Currency:
Prepare to go long euro when the 1.20 - 1.24 range
prepare to short Euro/Yen

Bond/
Prepare to short bond @ 103.50 - 105 range on ward.


Gold and precious,
I have a feeling there might be some force liquidation in the precious market... I will look for a good opportunity to long when the gold touch US$1100 - 1110 range .. cross my finger ...


Oil
I same like gold my target to go long is about US72 -73 range or lower ..

S&P/stock,

I see further pressure in the stock market, still keeping my short the selling should last quite a while.

I am do not have mood to write for the past day but yestersday activity good me a boost and morale ...so happy trading everyone.

Good trade every one