Bear market Hallowing ..Still Hoiding to my commodity ... Correction done .. look for the next upleg ..

On friday, the market the market go against my reading which I am quite lucky that I am no longer interesed in equity bull, if not I will struck big time ..

I think I forget about is the QE ended last week which it was my mistake to forget thought of this in my anaylsis last week..

anyway, I think the market is overdone, looking for a bound this weekend. The biggest rally will come somewhere on between Tuesday and Thursday, if I still have money I will buy but all my fund is full invested in commoditiy gold, silver , oil wheat and corn. Position still safe

As you all have take note I have shift my investment to commodities now 100% in commodity ... I still quite confident in my position even with the Friday sell off ...

Soft commodity next upleg?
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS199272+30-Oct-2009+PRN20091030

Today commoditiy probably going to retest my confident if not then we will see rebound which I will hold on tight for now .

Oil I think I will turn on the bearish sigh for oil soon ... but for now still hoilding long waiting to close out position in a rebound ..

From 66 to 78 - ?I think oil have increase my wealth alot for the past three week .. sometime we need to know the party wouldn't last forever ..

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With bond market become valuerable due to bond pruchase program ended, with the bearish sentitment in the overall market, mortage rise ... this will be a concern to Fed . And I am betting the bond purchasing program will be extended just like the BOE.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/29/AR2009102905090.html

I will be expecting light bound or small down in equity and all assest price in early of the week and strong rally after Wednesday.

Dollar should resume weekness ...

Be fearless when everyone is feared and be feared when everyone is fearless.

=============

Lastly, I come to think why the treasury purchasing will be extended ..

This is how I see, first the US economuy is still not out of the wood yet so there is alot of concern in the strength of the rebound ... now the Fed would not want to see investment sink, secondary the US would like to see weaker Dollar
1)so to inflated away some of the debt,
2) to increase manufacturing for exporting which will create more job in USA ..
3) Chinese would like to see yuan strength too fast but the Fed also does not want the dollar to regain stength so we have conflict issue here ... So I believe the Fed will injet more dollar into the economy via treasury auction to lower the dollar value and to finanace deficit..

As tricky as it get .... just be prepared for a "surprise" trading trend today or tomorrow ..

Sorry if my anylsis have cause some poeple to struck in the market last , which I believe that the trading trend will reverse sooner then anyone expected ..

Will extend commentary later today , should be very interesting week ...

Keeping to my original strategy ... I will buy big time into soft commodity

Hi everyone ,,

Yestersday the sentiment was very very bad which I expecting to last for the other 1 to 2 session ... if my thoery is right we should see a strong rebound soon if not today then tomorrow ...

US want china to balance trade, we can only balance trade with weak dollar, I expecting a second wave of housing problem for US$ somewhere next years, so the dollar will lost it shine ...

I am not dollar bull .... so I will play with my trend ...

Today I will buy hard into soft commoditiy and will add silver too , planning to short bond in today or tomorrow ,,, looking for the right timing ... oil is rebounding and I will keep the oil and wait and see until Monday session ..

Hope everyone trade will be grand today ...

Shopping day ....today and tomoorrow is what I call buy on dip ..

Hi all those who are new in my blog, before jump into my daily conclusion, it will be great to follow up my reading at least 2 week back ..


Anyway, I think I might start to buy some oil and gold in today trading session, silver and might add more soft commodity.

Will update in my blog ..

Should be interesting day

Extended Commentary later today

Good trade everyone

"Treasury Auction " opportunity to buy commodity on dip. What next for equity?

On th Wednesday, I have wrote something ( link to the http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/10/running-late-today-but-hope-to-squeeze.html ) commentary on treasury auction here is the quote"please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip." After this commentary post, the next next day the treasury auction announce ...


I like use this as main indicator for my invest, so the coming next will be a slight bumpy week. I am expecting some short term pressure on All asset class but it should not be a "big pressure " anticioate a mild correction in commodity and asset class and dollar should regain some strength..

Russia gold sales ...this is a story should be follow. But I still doubt the source of this NEWS .

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/10/23/2009-10-23T134018Z_01_LN274842_RTRIDST_0_GOLD-RUSSIA-UPDATE-3.html

Why is Treasury Auction is always have impact on equity or asset class price...

The auction usually will pull short term fund out of market, so you will always see a short pull back before or during treasury auction period with dollar regain some strength.

I expect the pull back and dollar strength will be very short live so any dip from now should be a buy.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jMxes7aV1luYaSoMiV7nrcefUB9wD9BH1Q684
...

Today snapshot:

South Korea’s GDP Expands at Fastest Pace in 7 Years ...and indicator of Global economy is recovering, while the US is still stop bleeding . Look like the korea will have to raise interest faster then anticipate, and there will be a few asia economy will follow suit in raising rate while the Fed have no target when to raise the rate... Like one of the Fed officer said"as long is it take".
For me it is another sigh of Dollar weakeness.

So Global equity is now in Bull market where USA will follow the trend... what the different?
the different is the percenyage increase in equity should slower then asia equity ..As you might have not notice, this time the Global economy is recovering without the support from US consumer ... interesting to take note ...

Well, my bet is now in commodity I expect a price breakout very soon ... sit on tight to soft commodity , oil and gold ...

Might be thinking of shift some investment from Gold to oil or soft commodity ... I will update in the blog.

If there is any dip in oil or commodity should use opportunity to buy if there in any dip.

will also look to short treasury this week..

Hope all will have a good trading week

Conclusion:

dollar might regain some strength early in the week, and resume weakness trend once he treasury auction end.

Equity should be on upward momentun might have meet some pressure during the week.

Commodity will do every well for week to come ....

is Oil over price.. I afraid to predict that we will move higher US$85.00US$90.00 is on card ...

Running late today but hope to squeeze some juice out ..

It seem like the Global recover is real and the dollar will fail to rebound . Even with joined" statement " from central bank around the world to pop the dollar but the dollar get hit to the new low again ...

Anyway, the equity will be on the upward moment , please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip.

Today the Europe broke a hard to barrier 1.50 to a dollar, do not bobe well for the dollar ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aZe662Jvrd_s

The world is recovering while the US economy is try to stop the bleeding...investor have to decided if they would like to invest in economy which is recovering or invest in low yield investment like bond and dollar with bubble risk .. For me I will hold less of dollar and buy commodities cause the initial stage of the recover will push the commoditity to all time high...

I recalled yestersday come across a news regarding obama said on the news" he will do what ever it take to revivie growth" I could not locate the news anymore, but it seem more dollar will pump into economy with more treasury auction down the road.

I am still look to short treasury, still weight for right timing ..

I have being busy with my business for the pass few day and schedule will be is quite tight, please pardon me if I run a bit late

I will extend commentary later

Dollar weakeness worry ? Gobal economy recovering ? What next .... ?

Will be back to update

Entering the next bull .. Dollar will continues it weak trend.

With the dollar weak trend intact, it seem the equity market will enter the next bull faster then anticipated ...

On Friday I thought the dollar will gain short term momentum with equity in short term pressure for the a few trading session ...

Today the equity should be in consoildation period, recommend to wait for another trading session to buy on dip ...

Oil and nat gas might high then current price, I suspect the oil and nat gas rally come with hidden agenda, which i have make some research on this ...

Please don't short the precious metal oil and commoditites market as this might be the begining of the upleg I suspect this will go wild before the settle down ..

Will be back for extended commentary

World economy is recovering but USA try to stop bleeding...

Yestersday made good call but bad decision was made during the day ..

Which result some short term lose today .... so just miss opportunity for dip buying althought yestersday was not big position entry ...

Anyway, I will start accumulate gold and will look for opportunity today or next trading session on Monday..

After, a run up in-stock it should be in condoildation period for the next three session with mild correction ...

dollar should be get some rebound ... but this should be short leaves...

Might re-enter short on treasury short again ... looking for the right timing ..

I will be back to extend commentary

Trichet say " euro wasn’t created to become the world’s primary reserve currency"

Today trichet pour some cool water on EURO, euro do not want to get strong and the Dollar does not want to gain in strength too ...

Everyone want currency to weak ... so the country can increase the export ... It seem like everyone want to export problem to other country .. :)

Today, I was abit nervous when trichet said the unfriendly for euro , I got some spook ... so I try to sell all my position ... but after deep condiferation.. I might be over excited ... anyway position have being made for oil and gold .. still have some mining stock will see ... what to do after the opening ..

Covered short @ 101.43, might re-enter short again.

If everyone want weak currency .. then something must get stronger ... while could be gold , silver and oil ? it great possible ... I will renter gold silverand oil on weakness or when signal to bullish on gold ..

Will post new position upon purchase ..

Good trade everyone

Sell everything close all position ...

Today will selling all long position and cover treasury short ...


I will still hold commoditie like wheat and corn ... don't long gold yet ...

Waiting to re-enter the market

Debt Deflation and dollar inflation .... Don't be confuse

Today , I wake up ... it is one of the day which I my brain could not think of anything ... but then .. there is always something to write .... I go over my previous newsletter ...


I think I will like to start issue on dollar inflation and debt deflation ...

The news are say we are in deflation yes I have no doubt tha USA economy is on deflation but I think it is in debt deflation which will automatically deflation the economy like situation in USA ..

But why the cost of living is getting more expensive then is should be, food and gas have being increasing for the pass few month ...

This will come from the dollar devaluation or I call dollar inflation .... This ill be coming for the losing value of the dollar ...

I will complete this later on ...

What to expect? will dollar continue to depress or short term rebound. Commodities and El nino

Today the equity should be in the short pressure or consolidation so it is not be a bad to take some profit after a 4 day run up.

But the bond sell off and the dollar get some strength .... hmmm ... well this is very tricky ...

Base on dollar strength , bond should be rally and equity and all asset class should be underpressure .. I see a mix up ... something is not right here .. Dollar should resume downtrend in the next two trading session.

I think someone might think of moving fund out of treasury and dollar .. ...

==========
Equity

I am expecting a new high in the S&P soon and the next trading session the equity should be in consolidation mode ... should to load some stock which will show good earnning at the dip if there is some correction


Will continue to hold gold and oil, still shorting treasury ..

Should it be a buy or sell in commodities , gold and silver silver ...

It is not bad idea to buy on dip as i think gold still have upside potential same as for oil and silver ... Gold will try to establish a new base @ 1050 - 1060 from my reading ..

Commodities and El Nino..


I have being doing some research on soft commodities and whether ..

Look like we are likely to have some food problem in 2010 beacause of El nino so I will expect a big rally in all commoditites as wheather changes will have great effect on soft commodities out put ... so I have to be patient on soft commodities trading ...

sorry for the late today ....


Good trade everyone

Will take some profit today.....what to expect next week?

I am a bit late today... I will be back to update today

Should I be a dollar bull or wait to be a bull.

For me , I am bear for dollar in short term and long term but I will changes my short term trend once the dollar make new low or go down abit more from this level ...

I was doing research , I come across this new at bloomberg below is the link ... this does not look good for dollar ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar.LHONg7awQ ...

I will be back for more update

Australia unexpect interest rate hike ....... this one of the market mover news and what does it mean ?

This mean ...

Australia are preparing for inflation country are preparing for inflation from dollar ... And there should be more country follow suite ... be prepare ...

From this dollar weakeness trend .. I think

Dollar will resume weaken
Commodies should continues it strength
Stock should be in green ...

I will be back for more update early in the trading session

Dollar Bubble Era ....Getting ready for dollar inflation ?

What is the dollar bubble and dollar inflation era?

It is a period of all the accumulated dollar in the past 30 years begining to unwind + unlimited dollar supply added to the economy byUS Central government. This will be the world greatest economy structural change and will change what we have learned in the past as the past is always link to dollar, the alot of things will slow break away from dollar domination. The proccess had already began and will be more aggressive for time to come so be prepare to defy what you have learn and how trading used to be ..

How will the dollar get bubble and the dollar unwinding will impact market generally ..

Let talk way of winding dollar.

Like China and Brazi buy imf bond, China spend US$50 billion dollar to buy IMF which mean the accumulated dollar have being inject to the economy, then come the Brazil which announce to purchase US$10 Billion worth of US dollar so the past two weeks 60 billion us dollar being inject, the result more dollar in the economy.

To make thing worse we have Fed keep printing money to spur the economy..

I will try to cover more on this in my future article.


On Friday, the market preparing for some correction as we are entering the treasury auction period which usually the dollar will strength as fund are prepare to do auction and bond will again strength.... Now the Friday data, if jobless is it is positive or meet expectation , I believe the market will also go down ... but it miss expectation great time and I believe the real unemployment will be more then reported ... Fund which prepare to do the auction got spook, that why we see the bond and dollar get unwind .... so this is how we got rebound equity worldwide.

So this week, will be something difference, the equity will be in smooth sail rally throught the weekend .. Aloca will beat expectation as I have go over the economy data for the past two month, we do have good number in housing in July and August plus short term spur in car sales from the cash for clunker program , so there should not be a problem for aloca to make news high which will set mood for the the equity market.

This is what I will likely to occurs in short term may will last throughout next week ... have to see hot the market movement before my next investment mood.

1) we will see the a price spike in all asset class and equity we make see all this asset class and equity make new high .. This will fast and furious so got to hold tight..
2)Dollar got sold compare to other currency

The rebound will continue at least the next 2 - 3 trading session if of course the aloca do the trick ..

Please feel free to post your inquiry or would like exchange idea ... Hope to create a great learning center for everyone .. not technical analysis but the real market mover idea ..

Good trade every one

What to expect this week ... Buy or Sell ?

Today is quite difficult analysis as this week is at a greatroad cross for currency, comodities and equity.

The currency market is at a crossroad quite difficult to make call base on News . The Japan want weak Yen, so there will be a short - medium term pressure on Yen .. To complicate the issue the dollar should be againing strength on Friday but it reverse course due to bad data on job...

This issue will put bond underpressure for sure . If bond is under pressure, which will result in bond sell off + dollar low value = exccess liquiditity in the market ... well the liquidity will need to find a place to park ... The Euro did not want euro to again the japan do not want yen to strength, and people get spook for holding dollar and bond ...

Conclusion there will excess liquidity will find the way to the market, I think alot of equity market have make some correction since last week and should be able to made rebound ... if the exccess liquidity decide to enter equity and commodities which I see a great chance ... then I think we will see....

Yen and dollar move in the same direct sideway down
Gold and silver, oil and some commodities will rebound or rally ( it is not a bad idea to accumlate some gold and silver at this low price)
Equity or stock market rebound...

Stock to watch for comodities related stock and Aloca

I am buying nikkei @ 9742 and 9,675 today

Hope today your trade will grand

NewTrend is estsablishing ... everything is US dollar got selling off

The next two trading session will be my shopping day again .. will update my new position

Today data ready bad which did bode well for the bull for the next 2-3 trading session... And there will be another Treasury Auction next week another US$78 billion, so there another US$78.00 will be pull out of the market.

Anticipate short term pressure in equity and all asset class ...

however Gold is holding out well same for oil in the even of dollar strengthing.. may be I will reenter my long gold and silver earlier tomorrow is I see signal change in Gold.

Quite bullish going forward for gold and oiol including silver ....

Ok will be back for more update

Equity is setting up for the next big rally ...

Good day everyone ...

The market end slightly lower then my expectation but it did hold out well. From the past two day trading activity, I think the market prepare for the next big leg, so be prepare if you have the juice to buy the stock from this level. Three day of bad news did not bring the market down much so someone is supporting the market at these level.


Althought the bull signal is on, be cautious while trading this bull cause you might the trick to sell early then your target . Recommending miner stock and oil stock as I think the commodities related company will be the main engine to push Equity to new High ..

Same as oil and precious metal gold and silver will touch new high by this weekend .... if not then prepare to cut lose... Please take note the risk is here. Please do not trade in these rally if you are not ready or do not have the juice ..


The is market outlook for the next 3-4 trading session ...


You will test in this rally .... make sure your heart and mind are ready . S&P target 1125 range this is the first range .


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Why I do Think the rally will still be on ....

One of the main reason which I think is that ........

This all about economy sentiment, someone in the high place would like to have the positive economy environment so stock market dressing will be the fastest way ...

there is afew more logic I will update more in the future newsletter ..


Good trade everyone