Bond, gold, dollar, stock ? Bond rally

Getting busy with business and thank you for very input in this blog... hope this blog will develop knowledge investment based blog...

there is alot of thing to cover let jump to anylsis ..


The pass week there a change in trading fundamental model which I have suspected that more fund will be shift into precious metal and commoditites. The precious metal have consolidate last week as i have anticipated and expect a hard rally this week and will make high every week throught the end of year 2009 ..


Dollar and Bond ?

There is bond auction annoucement of 112 billion dollar ... i believe this time is the same drill like I used to write ... so we have see some short term pressure as hot money will pulll outof the market and will used this opport to relocate the investment and this time, I believe it will in commodities and precious including Oil and Nat Gas..

I have a reader who ask me to read an interesting blog regard inflation fear and unexpect rate hike and acticle is trying to link bond movement with stock market in 2008 ....There some different between the 2008 and 2009.

1) That was 2008 but the now is 2009 so the time line is different.
2) 2008 we nearly have system collasp 2009 we have fundmental structure change in the world economy.
3)2008 crsis is new to world economy but the crisis have now become a new normal for the world economy.
4) Like a say a few time, US do not want a strong dollar same as for Yuan .. so we will have some swinging in currency trading but eventually chinese will allow Yuan to gain strength when dollar inflation became dangerous which i think somewhere next years we will a strong Yuan ... when this occured I hope you have already some gold in your profolio for long term play or saving ..

Now why I think the US want a weaker currency and do not expect rate hike

1) Weaker dollar will allow fed to inflate some debt away.
2) Improve export and bring back job from over sea .
3) US government is trying to stablized house which i expect a new problem in real estate somewhere so low rate is needed to cusion the impact ... technical there is no anitdote for US economy the old power still want the system alive so we will leave life line for a time being or as long as it take the the Fed Chair say in interview sometime ago .

Prepare for Yuan strength in the future which will fuel demand for yuan and yuan demoinated bond which result more dollar unwinding ..

Economy is in deflation and but not dollar. Assest which demoninated when compare to dollar will be inflation ... I call dollar inflation

Conclusion:
Dollar will resume weakness and bond should be resume ... just waste a few opport unity to short due to away from trading desk ... still look for opportunity to short bnd.


Bond ?
Well technically i am not a bull in bond some time in the future we will have bond unwinding ..
This time will we see the short term maturity bond sale @ record as the overnment is trying to row over the debt but the market is over supply with 10 years note and we will see more short term bond sale more in the distant future ...

Wrap up

Gold and Precious will make new high very week from now through out 2009 at least.

Soft commoditites will rally will rally just like sugar in the past month

Nat gas and oil is a bit lag but should close up the gap and expect strong rebound in this week trading session

Equity have already made some correct in last week session so I expect consolidation and will ended higher by this weekend ended.

Will extend commentary during the trading session .

hope everyone have a great trading day

Obama desperate call with US Desperate meadure? China is under pressure ? The trade conflict ?

Hi everyone don't really time, business and family time ..so I guess have to divide time...

In today issue. I would like focus my thought on trade protection this is serious and create unnesccesary inflation to economy and apply faster change trade structure.

what the USA government is trying to do bring the job back to USA but by doing this will only accelerate the inflation in Dollar economy. Which is more dangerous then jobless in USA .

The amount of dollar in the world economy have increase a a tremendous rate to make the situation worse, central bank around the world start to diversify away from dollar which result in additional dollar in the world economy

If US is planning to buy less from the world and do trade protection so other country will invest lesser in us bond and accumulate lesser dollar .... this dollar with low rate will then be inflate to commoditiy and stock and all assest class ... Technically there is just too much flat currency in the world economy to chase fewer goods...

A lot of county is watching the trade war between and this is not bode well for dollar ..

US cannot just increase tax because another country are willing to sell to US @ cheaper rate that is not how capitalise work ...

I heard alot of talk how stock and assest is overbrought and need correction ..but lot of people forget to realise that dollar is over printed.. there is just too much dollar ... be my guese if you think the dollar will rallly hard and all assest class will have hard correction. We will have one but the time is not now .. I think we have just enter a new inflation bull phrase.

I just forget my thought on one issue which is quite important ...... will be back ...

Ok got that thought back ...

Well , if the obama and US government will do what ever is take to stimulus the economy so I think if there is bad news on economy well... I think is buy that is because the government will inject more dollar into economy the we will see dollar inflation ... Election is coming so ... politician will do crazy suff to please and keep citizen happy ...

When is the best time to hit sell button .... when real good new emerge in the economy, the government start to raise interest rate ...

A thought before you hit your sell or short button, is selling equity and asset class holding for dollars really the best move at current cross road ?


For me any dollar rebound is a short opportunity and any dip in asset is a buy.

This week treasury auction will be different, this time equity and assest class will move up, dollar should be on weakness trend same as for the treasure bond
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What to expect this week ...

Well, Gold will establish 1100 - 1120 mark and Silver will Touch US$18.00..

Oil will Touch at least US$80.00 before this weekend. Althought there is significant weakness in Friday trading ..

Soft commoditity .... I suspect soft commodity just hit bottom in last week trading and should rally or rebound .. the world is not oversupply so I will not worry so much on the price.. will contines soft commoditiy ..

Still looking to short treasury .... maybe this week ...

I will extend commentary in the trading session.

Hope everyone trade will be grand this week ..

Bear market Hallowing ..Still Hoiding to my commodity ... Correction done .. look for the next upleg ..

On friday, the market the market go against my reading which I am quite lucky that I am no longer interesed in equity bull, if not I will struck big time ..

I think I forget about is the QE ended last week which it was my mistake to forget thought of this in my anaylsis last week..

anyway, I think the market is overdone, looking for a bound this weekend. The biggest rally will come somewhere on between Tuesday and Thursday, if I still have money I will buy but all my fund is full invested in commoditiy gold, silver , oil wheat and corn. Position still safe

As you all have take note I have shift my investment to commodities now 100% in commodity ... I still quite confident in my position even with the Friday sell off ...

Soft commodity next upleg?
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS199272+30-Oct-2009+PRN20091030

Today commoditiy probably going to retest my confident if not then we will see rebound which I will hold on tight for now .

Oil I think I will turn on the bearish sigh for oil soon ... but for now still hoilding long waiting to close out position in a rebound ..

From 66 to 78 - ?I think oil have increase my wealth alot for the past three week .. sometime we need to know the party wouldn't last forever ..

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With bond market become valuerable due to bond pruchase program ended, with the bearish sentitment in the overall market, mortage rise ... this will be a concern to Fed . And I am betting the bond purchasing program will be extended just like the BOE.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/29/AR2009102905090.html

I will be expecting light bound or small down in equity and all assest price in early of the week and strong rally after Wednesday.

Dollar should resume weekness ...

Be fearless when everyone is feared and be feared when everyone is fearless.

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Lastly, I come to think why the treasury purchasing will be extended ..

This is how I see, first the US economuy is still not out of the wood yet so there is alot of concern in the strength of the rebound ... now the Fed would not want to see investment sink, secondary the US would like to see weaker Dollar
1)so to inflated away some of the debt,
2) to increase manufacturing for exporting which will create more job in USA ..
3) Chinese would like to see yuan strength too fast but the Fed also does not want the dollar to regain stength so we have conflict issue here ... So I believe the Fed will injet more dollar into the economy via treasury auction to lower the dollar value and to finanace deficit..

As tricky as it get .... just be prepared for a "surprise" trading trend today or tomorrow ..

Sorry if my anylsis have cause some poeple to struck in the market last , which I believe that the trading trend will reverse sooner then anyone expected ..

Will extend commentary later today , should be very interesting week ...

Keeping to my original strategy ... I will buy big time into soft commodity

Hi everyone ,,

Yestersday the sentiment was very very bad which I expecting to last for the other 1 to 2 session ... if my thoery is right we should see a strong rebound soon if not today then tomorrow ...

US want china to balance trade, we can only balance trade with weak dollar, I expecting a second wave of housing problem for US$ somewhere next years, so the dollar will lost it shine ...

I am not dollar bull .... so I will play with my trend ...

Today I will buy hard into soft commoditiy and will add silver too , planning to short bond in today or tomorrow ,,, looking for the right timing ... oil is rebounding and I will keep the oil and wait and see until Monday session ..

Hope everyone trade will be grand today ...

Shopping day ....today and tomoorrow is what I call buy on dip ..

Hi all those who are new in my blog, before jump into my daily conclusion, it will be great to follow up my reading at least 2 week back ..


Anyway, I think I might start to buy some oil and gold in today trading session, silver and might add more soft commodity.

Will update in my blog ..

Should be interesting day

Extended Commentary later today

Good trade everyone

"Treasury Auction " opportunity to buy commodity on dip. What next for equity?

On th Wednesday, I have wrote something ( link to the http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/10/running-late-today-but-hope-to-squeeze.html ) commentary on treasury auction here is the quote"please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip." After this commentary post, the next next day the treasury auction announce ...


I like use this as main indicator for my invest, so the coming next will be a slight bumpy week. I am expecting some short term pressure on All asset class but it should not be a "big pressure " anticioate a mild correction in commodity and asset class and dollar should regain some strength..

Russia gold sales ...this is a story should be follow. But I still doubt the source of this NEWS .

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/10/23/2009-10-23T134018Z_01_LN274842_RTRIDST_0_GOLD-RUSSIA-UPDATE-3.html

Why is Treasury Auction is always have impact on equity or asset class price...

The auction usually will pull short term fund out of market, so you will always see a short pull back before or during treasury auction period with dollar regain some strength.

I expect the pull back and dollar strength will be very short live so any dip from now should be a buy.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jMxes7aV1luYaSoMiV7nrcefUB9wD9BH1Q684
...

Today snapshot:

South Korea’s GDP Expands at Fastest Pace in 7 Years ...and indicator of Global economy is recovering, while the US is still stop bleeding . Look like the korea will have to raise interest faster then anticipate, and there will be a few asia economy will follow suit in raising rate while the Fed have no target when to raise the rate... Like one of the Fed officer said"as long is it take".
For me it is another sigh of Dollar weakeness.

So Global equity is now in Bull market where USA will follow the trend... what the different?
the different is the percenyage increase in equity should slower then asia equity ..As you might have not notice, this time the Global economy is recovering without the support from US consumer ... interesting to take note ...

Well, my bet is now in commodity I expect a price breakout very soon ... sit on tight to soft commodity , oil and gold ...

Might be thinking of shift some investment from Gold to oil or soft commodity ... I will update in the blog.

If there is any dip in oil or commodity should use opportunity to buy if there in any dip.

will also look to short treasury this week..

Hope all will have a good trading week

Conclusion:

dollar might regain some strength early in the week, and resume weakness trend once he treasury auction end.

Equity should be on upward momentun might have meet some pressure during the week.

Commodity will do every well for week to come ....

is Oil over price.. I afraid to predict that we will move higher US$85.00US$90.00 is on card ...

Running late today but hope to squeeze some juice out ..

It seem like the Global recover is real and the dollar will fail to rebound . Even with joined" statement " from central bank around the world to pop the dollar but the dollar get hit to the new low again ...

Anyway, the equity will be on the upward moment , please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip.

Today the Europe broke a hard to barrier 1.50 to a dollar, do not bobe well for the dollar ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aZe662Jvrd_s

The world is recovering while the US economy is try to stop the bleeding...investor have to decided if they would like to invest in economy which is recovering or invest in low yield investment like bond and dollar with bubble risk .. For me I will hold less of dollar and buy commodities cause the initial stage of the recover will push the commoditity to all time high...

I recalled yestersday come across a news regarding obama said on the news" he will do what ever it take to revivie growth" I could not locate the news anymore, but it seem more dollar will pump into economy with more treasury auction down the road.

I am still look to short treasury, still weight for right timing ..

I have being busy with my business for the pass few day and schedule will be is quite tight, please pardon me if I run a bit late

I will extend commentary later

Dollar weakeness worry ? Gobal economy recovering ? What next .... ?

Will be back to update

Entering the next bull .. Dollar will continues it weak trend.

With the dollar weak trend intact, it seem the equity market will enter the next bull faster then anticipated ...

On Friday I thought the dollar will gain short term momentum with equity in short term pressure for the a few trading session ...

Today the equity should be in consoildation period, recommend to wait for another trading session to buy on dip ...

Oil and nat gas might high then current price, I suspect the oil and nat gas rally come with hidden agenda, which i have make some research on this ...

Please don't short the precious metal oil and commoditites market as this might be the begining of the upleg I suspect this will go wild before the settle down ..

Will be back for extended commentary

World economy is recovering but USA try to stop bleeding...

Yestersday made good call but bad decision was made during the day ..

Which result some short term lose today .... so just miss opportunity for dip buying althought yestersday was not big position entry ...

Anyway, I will start accumulate gold and will look for opportunity today or next trading session on Monday..

After, a run up in-stock it should be in condoildation period for the next three session with mild correction ...

dollar should be get some rebound ... but this should be short leaves...

Might re-enter short on treasury short again ... looking for the right timing ..

I will be back to extend commentary

Trichet say " euro wasn’t created to become the world’s primary reserve currency"

Today trichet pour some cool water on EURO, euro do not want to get strong and the Dollar does not want to gain in strength too ...

Everyone want currency to weak ... so the country can increase the export ... It seem like everyone want to export problem to other country .. :)

Today, I was abit nervous when trichet said the unfriendly for euro , I got some spook ... so I try to sell all my position ... but after deep condiferation.. I might be over excited ... anyway position have being made for oil and gold .. still have some mining stock will see ... what to do after the opening ..

Covered short @ 101.43, might re-enter short again.

If everyone want weak currency .. then something must get stronger ... while could be gold , silver and oil ? it great possible ... I will renter gold silverand oil on weakness or when signal to bullish on gold ..

Will post new position upon purchase ..

Good trade everyone

Sell everything close all position ...

Today will selling all long position and cover treasury short ...


I will still hold commoditie like wheat and corn ... don't long gold yet ...

Waiting to re-enter the market

Debt Deflation and dollar inflation .... Don't be confuse

Today , I wake up ... it is one of the day which I my brain could not think of anything ... but then .. there is always something to write .... I go over my previous newsletter ...


I think I will like to start issue on dollar inflation and debt deflation ...

The news are say we are in deflation yes I have no doubt tha USA economy is on deflation but I think it is in debt deflation which will automatically deflation the economy like situation in USA ..

But why the cost of living is getting more expensive then is should be, food and gas have being increasing for the pass few month ...

This will come from the dollar devaluation or I call dollar inflation .... This ill be coming for the losing value of the dollar ...

I will complete this later on ...

What to expect? will dollar continue to depress or short term rebound. Commodities and El nino

Today the equity should be in the short pressure or consolidation so it is not be a bad to take some profit after a 4 day run up.

But the bond sell off and the dollar get some strength .... hmmm ... well this is very tricky ...

Base on dollar strength , bond should be rally and equity and all asset class should be underpressure .. I see a mix up ... something is not right here .. Dollar should resume downtrend in the next two trading session.

I think someone might think of moving fund out of treasury and dollar .. ...

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Equity

I am expecting a new high in the S&P soon and the next trading session the equity should be in consolidation mode ... should to load some stock which will show good earnning at the dip if there is some correction


Will continue to hold gold and oil, still shorting treasury ..

Should it be a buy or sell in commodities , gold and silver silver ...

It is not bad idea to buy on dip as i think gold still have upside potential same as for oil and silver ... Gold will try to establish a new base @ 1050 - 1060 from my reading ..

Commodities and El Nino..


I have being doing some research on soft commodities and whether ..

Look like we are likely to have some food problem in 2010 beacause of El nino so I will expect a big rally in all commoditites as wheather changes will have great effect on soft commodities out put ... so I have to be patient on soft commodities trading ...

sorry for the late today ....


Good trade everyone

Will take some profit today.....what to expect next week?

I am a bit late today... I will be back to update today

Should I be a dollar bull or wait to be a bull.

For me , I am bear for dollar in short term and long term but I will changes my short term trend once the dollar make new low or go down abit more from this level ...

I was doing research , I come across this new at bloomberg below is the link ... this does not look good for dollar ..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar.LHONg7awQ ...

I will be back for more update

Australia unexpect interest rate hike ....... this one of the market mover news and what does it mean ?

This mean ...

Australia are preparing for inflation country are preparing for inflation from dollar ... And there should be more country follow suite ... be prepare ...

From this dollar weakeness trend .. I think

Dollar will resume weaken
Commodies should continues it strength
Stock should be in green ...

I will be back for more update early in the trading session

Dollar Bubble Era ....Getting ready for dollar inflation ?

What is the dollar bubble and dollar inflation era?

It is a period of all the accumulated dollar in the past 30 years begining to unwind + unlimited dollar supply added to the economy byUS Central government. This will be the world greatest economy structural change and will change what we have learned in the past as the past is always link to dollar, the alot of things will slow break away from dollar domination. The proccess had already began and will be more aggressive for time to come so be prepare to defy what you have learn and how trading used to be ..

How will the dollar get bubble and the dollar unwinding will impact market generally ..

Let talk way of winding dollar.

Like China and Brazi buy imf bond, China spend US$50 billion dollar to buy IMF which mean the accumulated dollar have being inject to the economy, then come the Brazil which announce to purchase US$10 Billion worth of US dollar so the past two weeks 60 billion us dollar being inject, the result more dollar in the economy.

To make thing worse we have Fed keep printing money to spur the economy..

I will try to cover more on this in my future article.


On Friday, the market preparing for some correction as we are entering the treasury auction period which usually the dollar will strength as fund are prepare to do auction and bond will again strength.... Now the Friday data, if jobless is it is positive or meet expectation , I believe the market will also go down ... but it miss expectation great time and I believe the real unemployment will be more then reported ... Fund which prepare to do the auction got spook, that why we see the bond and dollar get unwind .... so this is how we got rebound equity worldwide.

So this week, will be something difference, the equity will be in smooth sail rally throught the weekend .. Aloca will beat expectation as I have go over the economy data for the past two month, we do have good number in housing in July and August plus short term spur in car sales from the cash for clunker program , so there should not be a problem for aloca to make news high which will set mood for the the equity market.

This is what I will likely to occurs in short term may will last throughout next week ... have to see hot the market movement before my next investment mood.

1) we will see the a price spike in all asset class and equity we make see all this asset class and equity make new high .. This will fast and furious so got to hold tight..
2)Dollar got sold compare to other currency

The rebound will continue at least the next 2 - 3 trading session if of course the aloca do the trick ..

Please feel free to post your inquiry or would like exchange idea ... Hope to create a great learning center for everyone .. not technical analysis but the real market mover idea ..

Good trade every one

What to expect this week ... Buy or Sell ?

Today is quite difficult analysis as this week is at a greatroad cross for currency, comodities and equity.

The currency market is at a crossroad quite difficult to make call base on News . The Japan want weak Yen, so there will be a short - medium term pressure on Yen .. To complicate the issue the dollar should be againing strength on Friday but it reverse course due to bad data on job...

This issue will put bond underpressure for sure . If bond is under pressure, which will result in bond sell off + dollar low value = exccess liquiditity in the market ... well the liquidity will need to find a place to park ... The Euro did not want euro to again the japan do not want yen to strength, and people get spook for holding dollar and bond ...

Conclusion there will excess liquidity will find the way to the market, I think alot of equity market have make some correction since last week and should be able to made rebound ... if the exccess liquidity decide to enter equity and commodities which I see a great chance ... then I think we will see....

Yen and dollar move in the same direct sideway down
Gold and silver, oil and some commodities will rebound or rally ( it is not a bad idea to accumlate some gold and silver at this low price)
Equity or stock market rebound...

Stock to watch for comodities related stock and Aloca

I am buying nikkei @ 9742 and 9,675 today

Hope today your trade will grand

NewTrend is estsablishing ... everything is US dollar got selling off

The next two trading session will be my shopping day again .. will update my new position

Today data ready bad which did bode well for the bull for the next 2-3 trading session... And there will be another Treasury Auction next week another US$78 billion, so there another US$78.00 will be pull out of the market.

Anticipate short term pressure in equity and all asset class ...

however Gold is holding out well same for oil in the even of dollar strengthing.. may be I will reenter my long gold and silver earlier tomorrow is I see signal change in Gold.

Quite bullish going forward for gold and oiol including silver ....

Ok will be back for more update

Equity is setting up for the next big rally ...

Good day everyone ...

The market end slightly lower then my expectation but it did hold out well. From the past two day trading activity, I think the market prepare for the next big leg, so be prepare if you have the juice to buy the stock from this level. Three day of bad news did not bring the market down much so someone is supporting the market at these level.


Althought the bull signal is on, be cautious while trading this bull cause you might the trick to sell early then your target . Recommending miner stock and oil stock as I think the commodities related company will be the main engine to push Equity to new High ..

Same as oil and precious metal gold and silver will touch new high by this weekend .... if not then prepare to cut lose... Please take note the risk is here. Please do not trade in these rally if you are not ready or do not have the juice ..


The is market outlook for the next 3-4 trading session ...


You will test in this rally .... make sure your heart and mind are ready . S&P target 1125 range this is the first range .


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Why I do Think the rally will still be on ....

One of the main reason which I think is that ........

This all about economy sentiment, someone in the high place would like to have the positive economy environment so stock market dressing will be the fastest way ...

there is afew more logic I will update more in the future newsletter ..


Good trade everyone

S&P is at final stage of the rally ... any bull from need to alert .. Commodities will be the next rally... you will be surprised

Today was signal turn very bearish for the market, which the bear will be in full swing in the first half trading session...

However, due to this bearish data it will hit dollar and bond more in the later trading session, there might be a swift rebound in the second trading session ...

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Gold, recalled 2 years when IMF first announce that they planned to sell there gold that news easily sent gold down by 10% in 3 - 4 session .... The weird thing today is when IMF is starting to sell Gold the Gold market hold UP very well .... hmmmm tricky huh...

When the stock rally end, soft comodittes like wheat corn cattle livestock , precious like gold and silver, will be the next big run ...

Dollar will on the devalue stage when compare to gold and slower rate of decline when compare to other currency ....

So many conflict news and signal ... what do we need to focus in this hostile environment.

First, you need to know what are you buy and why do you buy it.

Seconday, Compare what have happen in the past and compare with present environment... the important of this it that you need to identify the difference ... this is the import and will lay the foundation of the trend.

Third, Identify the new changes or future changes .... try to stick with the trend and you will be 80-90% correct ...

===============

Today data is very bearish, but should we be buying bond or dollar ... well there will be alot of supply from time to come so I think you will got your pieces sometime in the future.. so I am notgoing to be a bull on this one ..


Althought consumer confident is down but it did not take down the equity much as I think it would be .... stock still want to rally , so I think by end of today trading session the market, the S&P will be up.. stay tune for this

Still maintaining my long on S&P, will reduce position when opportunity araise or signal changes

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Oil is in bearish market since last week but it still hold out well @ 65, if this a real bear I think the oil will $60 by now..

Will still hold on to long hope will go as planned...


I don't jump a round trading cause I ended earnning notthing, I always plan my investment and pick my selection carefully... I alway fail when i jump my ship too early ...

Daily market is very massy nowsady got to becareful when handling it...

Hope every trade will grand today..

Trade war and Nikkei

Today, I have turn into full bull for Nikkei which I will buy be buying the nikkei future ...

The trade dispute between China and USA, will benefit Japan Greatly ...

Cheer everyone

Oil , Gold Sell off & Treasury rally - what is the hidden agenda

From Thursday - Friday there is a sell off in gold and most of the hard asset and equity ... Like have aniticpated however, the bear extend longer then I have predicted ...

So I try to think hard what is the reason behind the dollar strength , bond rally and Gold, silver and oil short term price depression.

I try to gather my idea and concluded this letter.


Why foreigner will buy less bond?
1) bond is now in huge bubble and this bubble will continue to grow due to poorer then expect economy recovery.

2)In the past, foreign willing to to extend support in US because US consumer is willing in consume product from foreign( Creditor country ) and willing to add more debt to consume ..For the past one Years this have change. e US consumer does not consume like they used, and their habit will change forever, not only they are unwilling to continue to add debt but they will become a saver which is good for the US long term economy look but bad not good if the government continue to have deficit ...

As US consumer spend lesser so the Creditor will get less dollar which will result in foreign inability buy while the Tresury is selling Bond like no tomorrow to finance the US trade deficit while the Fed keep printing press on to reflate the economy .. So this not bold well for the future auction and dollar ....


3) legendary investor like Jim Roger say that there will be world currency crisis, And I think it is beacuse of dollar pound sterling and possible the swiss franc in the distance future which I 100% percent agree with him .. no doubt about it ..

Conclude dollar will resume weakness and bond will fall in value ..

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Gold depression ?

I was quite surprise that gold did not hold up @ 1008 range which I believe it will hold .. Anyway ... I think there is a link with the bond run up and the gold sell off ...

Which I think someone is trying to sell bond @ high price and someone wanted to buy gold at low price .. And I believe this entity is Bric country ....

Now .. just read the news on the "China launches probe into imports of US chicken" this will not be a dollar as alot of Couintry will stand against USA on these protectionist policy .... and will not be good for US Dollar for week to come ...

After G-20 meeting, while this is not going to be dollar froendly, like I have being say in the past that the world economy structure is changing, alot of things will not be the same including dollar (USED to be store value ) and bond ( which is hype bubble mode) ...


I don't think this coincidence, but it is another well planned ..... Monday will be the turning for both bond and dollar to the down side ..

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Let talk about oil selling off ...

If you go back three - 4 month ago when oil start to rally Goldman sach predict that the oil will touch US$85.00 in the third - fourth quarter. Afew event did not turn out as planned , like driving season and hurrican and economy did not recovery come as planned and today goldman sach oil price to rise in future http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_3_MOLT/idUSTRE58O24S20090925 .. and Saudi Arabia say that the fair value for oil is US$75.00 http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093273068 .

and there is afew news which will support oil to news high, like iran test missle and the the acciddent in the oil refinaery...

Well ..... this is a new play on Monday .... so I still hold short term bullish on oil...

I have wrote in other blog, the problem in oil in short term is storage but not the commodities itself ... so why there is a huge selling off ... well someone would like to buy oil at cheaper price ...

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On Friday, I have buying alot of stuff and I have committed 95% of my fund ...

I have short treasury @ 102.52

Total in gold and silver is 45% of my fund

Buy mining stock GG @ 38.49 and HL @ 4.00
Silver @ 15.88
Gold @ 983

Oil @ average 66.45 ( 15% of the fund)
Long S&P @ average 1045 (10% of the fund)

Wheat and corn 25% of

Wheat
Decem contract @averge 459 ( 463 & 452)
March Contract @ average 482 ( 493 & 472)

Corn
@December average @ 330 ( 345 & 315)
@March average @ 346 ( 358 & 334)

==============
Market outlook for Gold, silver, oil stock, dollar , bond ...

Gold , silver, oil and mining stock will rebound on monday.

Dollar and bond will resume weakness starting next weeks ...

For stock, it is quite bearish signal in US stock but I think the dollar and bond weakness should outcome the bearish signal in equity ... so the stock will side way up for the time being ...

Hope everyone will have a good trade and best luck

P.S "Always take profit when you see one"















I have take a lot of long position on Friday ...

Bear market or bear Trap ? Load up time .. Short treasury...

From my reading Three day ago I anticipate a selling off since Tuesday and all asset class will be underpresure for the next few trading session...

I made a right to decision selling alot of my position since Tuesday and Wednesday as I anticipating sell off in the market Anyway today load up time...

This sell off just give an opportunity to enter long position in all asset class like silver @ lower position .... @ very bargain price ... @ 15.88, .oil not so sure so add only ... medium postion 65.50 and @ small position 66.3 and 69.02.. total 10% I invest more or gold and silver like 45% ...

Gold @ 983 ...

Long S@P @ small line cause to bull from here will have to be caution ... S&P Position @ 1051 , 1048 and 1045 and 1042 (bigger line here) 10%

Might be time to load mining stock .... I already pick some @ current low price

Recommending GG gain @ 38.49 which is the price brought this time ..


Anyway I quited load up today busy buying things at low price in my point of view.....

There is great shift in carried trade currency Yen and I think US dollar, pound sterling and swiss franc too ...will be replacing Yen as major carry trade currency soon ... the market will take time to adjust to this trade trend..

wheat and corn will be my long term investment ...

I have being reading news on the cattle slaugthering due to low price this will be a good be play soon ...

Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying .....


Short treasury @ 102.52

Hope everything will go according to my reading if not .... I will have to eat wheat and corn @_@

Time will telling if the S&Pis bear trap or bear Market .... if this is bear trap it will a good one ...

Any I still fate that there is room to move to new height just be patient ..

Risk will be rewarding .....

Good trade everyone ... will stop position in other blog ......

Treasury Sell like hot cake or it is a hoax? Gold and Government

Greeting everyone. it quite sometime since I update my blog which I must admit I was quite Lazy ...

Today I come across new on bloomberg subject " China Can’t Buy Enough Treasuries as Dollar Drop No Deterrent " This a hi-light from this new which caught my attention , which make me to think.. hey someone is trying to convince investor to buy the treasury.. First the dollar gain some ground, stock become underpressure ... if you take note of this timeline during the past treasury auction this has being always the case ...

The first hilight which I would to comment is "

China, the biggest foreign owner of Treasuries, added $24.1 billion in July after net sales of $25.1 billion in June, raising its stake in U.S. government debt 3.1 percent to $800.5 billion, Treasury data showed on Sept. 16. The country’s holdings have risen 10 percent this year, after a 52 percent gain in 2008 amid the surge in demand for the safety of U.S. government debt as global credit markets froze."

There one thing you have to take note ... the china is actually decrease the holding of treasury by 1 billion ...

US treasury has being selling almost trillion dollar to fund stimulus, and will be selling more trillion to fund the economy expension...

I have a feeling the QE might be extended, as the US will have to to spend more stimulus then orignally planned due to US consumer save more then spend and alot of bank and business in US economy will be underpressure for the next few quarter ...

Don't Short Gold this time, if you are comfortable to short based on history movement, always put a tight stop or covered when you see profit .

Be warn this is just begining of the new bull in Gold ...

A few big of central have being buying gold for the past five and will be adding aggressively in the furture to exchange dollar for gold and alot of central will follow suit due to dollar and treasury bubble ... Instant dollar will be carry trade currency like yen for time to come ...

This term is still new which I call "Dollar bubble"

For the past 20 years dollar have enjoy as world reserved currency and have being circulate in the world trade for the past, this circulation have increase in such a magnitude for the past five year.

20- 30 years The world is is accumluting the dollar as reserve which result giant pool of dollar and this reserve had began to unwind as the world try stimulus their economy and will use dollar and at the same will start to increase other country reserve and gold reserve to hedge again dollar devaluation in time to come. Fed unfortunately did not do much to save dollar and print more dollar to buy up treasury both direct and indirect way. This result in adding more dollar supply to the world while the the world demand for dollar is decreasing ...

Gold and commodities and asset will face some pressure for the next 3-4 trading session ..,, hold on tight this will get bumpy ...

Intra day - or short term trading is sutiable for this type market. Sell on trength buy on weakness.

Good Trade everyone

Silver going to US$22.00 Gold US$ 1300 ? Signal turning bearish for S & P.

since Thursday stock signal according to my reading is starting to turn bearish and I am changing my trading startegy to short term or quick style trading style...

I have started to turn my attention to commodities trading since last week , I am sensing a very strong signal is about to explode in commodities.

I have made Recommendation in Gold mine company Like GG on Thursday (other blog website) which made in strong rebound, I have some position in GG @ 39.50 and sell 30% of the holding to play short term trade but like I sold the 30% of the holding @ 40.00 too early ... Anyway the 70% is still bring in profit which I will hold on to GG for the time being untill further notice.

Crude oil is sending a mix signal on friday and it seem like the crude and stock is try to break away from each other trend, which I believe new trend for the crude and stock will established soon. I will still long Crude oil for the time I have add small position @ 69.10 on Friday which bring my average price up to US$68.3 from US$67.50 ... dollar inflation or devaluation will made commodities including precious metal and oil look good in mid - long term.

Wheat and corn, it a good time to buy/

On thursday I have add some position in wheat which the price of wheat exploded . I have put on commentary on wheat and corn on other blog

Updating trading status.

Long S&P @ 1041 8% of my port
Long oil @ average 68.10 15% of port
Long silver @ average 16.05 45% of port
Long GG @ 40.50 5% of port
Long Wheat and corn (10%) will add more if the price fall again

Wheat
Decem contract @averge 463
March Contract @ 493

Corn
@march 345
@december 358

Will cash out my S&P @ 1065

Short treasury @ 102.4

The stock market is in bullish sentiment so the S&P will be a upward momentum but I will start to reduce my position in the S&P and prepare to short market in the distant future..


I have not complete the commentary on gold and central government ... I try to complete soon..

Yestersday I force my cut my long position at 1000 ,Time to change strategy

Yestersday my investment model have quite burn in my portflio which it is time to replay back some of my huge profit since March .... Yestersday I was really frustrated as it wasn't my days all position was crush badly...


Anyway, I will still think this correction will be short life as the sell off is not due to worse world wide structural problem but is just a set back for correction..

Yestersday I have add medium S&P long @ 999 and some oil @ average 69.00, I will add more is the price fell below 68.00

I am also in FAS @ 70.00 and willm @ more if there is weakness in today weakness long target @ 65 and major position @ 60.00 but will see today momentum before making more move


For S&P, I think I will buy more @ 995 and all in @ 990 but will today momentum before making move....


Adding some sugar to proflio still new @ this just follow jim roger ...


Hope today your trade will be a great one

New Trend Established ? .... Dollar lose value and wall on the leg down ....

The market make a late rebound but did not rally like I planned..

So the S&P is under pressure, if this is a bear trap this will a good one . I bet this is will really hurt the bear as I see the bear confident is gaining .... I might be wong...

From speculative view, this is what I would like to see.... the stock market is in the unpredictable zone where bull are limited, bull are afraid to extend the rally which we see the bull got kill faster Like the index hammer down fast then the bear is harder to kill due to more retailer try to short the market that is why the rebound take longer time to recovered. This is my understanding and if my undertsand is correct then we will see a rally within the next two tradeing session to a new high will be established...

1060 or 1080 this range will next target ? great possible...

Commentary on the market

Why I anticipated a late rally or rebound , from speculative view good news and sentiment in the open market is to lured the bull into the market , then Bull squeeze process begin, once the boy got enough victim like what I see now..they got the bull ... then the second part will be bear squeeze proccess .

Current sentiment will try to lure the bear out now... so I will not be surprise to see the S&P under pressure the in medium trading seesion

You can try to check past trading session this is always the case...

.. which is why I anticipate a rebound or rally later today... anyway the whole proccess will depend if they got enough victim ... might take another trading session if the process is not complete...

I might be wrong ... I will keep my position for now ...

I am a speculative now, I don;t buy or sell on daily news instead I planned my trading which is good for speculative market environment ..

I don't try to know the market, I try to understand their strategy .....

Why I think the rally will continues this is inside my thought , the boy got better profit when trader is in unpredictable market which create nervous mood like what we experience, because nervous create a sensitive mood, for the bull and the bears which is good to lay trap for both...but as investor we will would like to profit from market and will be lured to daily trading ...


Ok I might be wrong but I will still keep this trend for the time being.


Like a said early, if this is a bear trap and this will be a big one... as bear is gaining confident because they are make to believe even good news cannot make the market rally (good news is a bears market and bad is the bull market sound tricky )


From today trading, I feel something big is going to happen or change, the stock went down as the dollar... something fishy? I have a feeling that the dollar will be beaten down in the nears future. But for the stock I am not sure.

If we are going to see recovery in the next 3 - 6 month and the stock will be in higher position today then it make no sense to me that the big boy will let the market go down and let the retailer scope up the cheap stock ... This might be a one shoot rally but this rally will be full of trap.

So how about treasury, with continues trade deficit and budget deficit .... well ,, I will keep my short for now and I see what will unfold next weeks.

I am turning my attention to gold and crude oil, planning to accumulate some position.. Next week will be a start of the new month and I believe something big is going to happen and unexpected .... Just keep a big eye ...

Sentiment look bearish to me from the last week market movement but I will keep all my long in S&P @ 1019 and short trasury @ average 101 .86

It is more difficult to be a speculative then be a fundamentist as to be a speculative I have to defy all the logic and my feeling and focus on trading strategy..

Hope this new week will be grand to everyone...

Keep all my position carry overnight... Anticipal a rally today?

What a ride today, add a a quit a big position Long in the S$P @ 1016, some @ 1017, 1021, 1023 average S&P @ 1019..

Long oil some @ 71 twice big position @ 70 average at 70.40.

Short treasury @ 102 , 101.87 and 101.71

Natgas not looking good.... planning to add oct contract ...

I anticipate a late rally in today trading session look out for a tricky start...

Good trade every one

Short Treasury .... Should go long in S&P ?

I have re- adjustment to my position before market close... Close all my short @ 1025 and made 9 posint again and put long position @ 1025 and will add more if the S&P is in downward pressure today session..

Start short Treasury @ 102 and will start short aggressive for day to come...

Got a tired day so try to update my position again ...

Good trade every one

Carry my short overnight...Should we short the treasury?

Today, the market did not went as my plan which my a sharp bound in the early session but end with a small gain at the end of the market which is not impress with a "feel good " news..

I will carry all my short overnight and see what tomorrow will be ... (extended comment on stock after my commentary on treasury)

Talking about treasury... manage close my short on treasury @ good timing and made a made 3% gain I see the treasury is raising which is not a good sigh for stock tomorrow Wednesday so might see a short term pressure in the S&P the next few session .... hanging tight to the short for a while....

Today I got one news which really got my attention on the bloomberg .. which the Goldman senior chief economist said that the Fed might expand it balance sheet to 4 trillion . I try to find the news on the bloomberg but it got removed. and the project for governement deficit is 7-9 trillion (I believe the figure will go higher ) http://www.examiner.com/x-21433-Middlesex-County-Libertarian-Examiner~y2009m8d25-9-Trillion-deficit-No-7-Trillion--Bad-either-way .. it is time to short the Treasury ?? The Fed is planning to end bond buying at the end of october ..... will they extend?? First I think might I short focus on shorting treasury..... Waiting for clear signal... the time is soon...

Hanging tight ..... good profit is a round the coner ...


Good trade everyone

Hitting range in S&P , make some profit in Treasury, some loss in the Nat Gas future...What next ... ?

I have being quite busy did not have time to update my blog which I will be busy for next 10 day to manage my business,, which is not fair to post my daily trading at the end of the day.

The market went as I have anticipated which you can refer back my planned trading range.... which result in good a very good trading session for me...

Sell my long at 1031 , 1032 and 1033, play a few short @ 1034 ..... Planning to covered short start of today (Tuesday ) trading session which my target 1015 - 1020 will place a large long position @ 1012, start to accumulate long at 1015 downward

What is next ... Anticipated early downward momentum in the S&P will use this opportunity to cover the short and wait for opportunity to go long.

For treasury shorting on Monday was a good play and make some short covering and will short more later Maybe on Wednesday will also look for opportunity later today Tuesday..

Nat Gas... I will roller over my Nat Gas contract to october may add more october contract...


The Oil and nat gas ratio is at 19 years high .... I see two trading option for Nat Gas play... Either Short oil or Long Nat Gas in the future or UNG.... which by consideration the short term will be long Nat Gas which I think the Nat gas make some rebounding after contract september expired and will look to short oil start @ US$78 - US$80.00 .... (Pateint with the short) Don;t have much luck on the energy sector so I start to do in small invest like 15% of my fund until I comfortable before adding more of my fund ...

Good trade every one ...

Becareful of Bull and trap..

Market seem to moving into my favourite position... And it seem to me like two way trap is forming... bull and bear trap... Like I said thing will get very tricky from here on....

Planning to sell long @ 1026 - 1030 range might have to adjust trading range if the bull is strong then anticipated...


Make some short on treasury yesterday... might add more short...

Good trade every one

Just Back from Business Trip... What a hell of the weeks ....

I miss my prediction by almost 12 point I only anticipated the correction at 990 but it seem like it look pretty bad and the index dig down ... No one the 100% accurate but missing too much will cause to miss huge opportunity..

Preparing for the next short ...

What to expect, why there is a sell off , bear taking control? Let analyst

This week will make a very interesting weekly commentary which I would like to share some of my thought .Today market get ready bad in the begining (we just touch a few high) but fail to break the Tuesday Low which is 992 and close above Tuesday high...

From Speculative View:

During intraday trading make a "U" rebound and "w" up closing ... Look like testing the bear and bull trading pattern.


What about Monday ... Monday might make another test at 992 area and might end @ 1006 high the end of the day.


From Fundamental view,
Look like a strong bear is forming like I wrote in my blog on 7 of August http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/08/from-bull-turning-to-bear-when-will-be.html .

From this level there will be a lot of bear which will short most of the stock at this level and bull reluctant to go long which I believe that to ignite a short covering the S&P will go to a new high which my first target is 1020 - 1030 area.. and planning to start major short at this position.

Next week will be very trick cause all news pointing S&P downward but will there be any "unexpected surprise" ...

Talking treasury Auction and linking to stock selling... I think should find opportunity to short bond and long emerging market.


Good trading every one

Chart and technical, it is safe to analysis ?

Chart, technical or trading average can be manipulated, With big wars chest in Hand, G.s and gang easily manipulate trading number.. I have long throw those (Chart, technical or trading average) out of my trading strategy unless the SEC regulate or overhaul the trading platform which should be quite sometime to change I will not complicate my trade strategy with unreliable statistic ..

Like I said, QE is on, interest rate at near zero, there is still room for the stock to run .... just beware of the bear trap on the way...


Be patient there will be big money to be earn in short.... timing is important....

Talking of the news from Germany and French really surprise the market which come just in time to counter bad news from U.S will this be the trend where a good new from one economy counter bad from other economy? Time will tell.

Long S&P at 1005 before Yestersday closing?

From yestersday Fed statement, QE is on , no interest raise on card.... So Everything will go up ... only dollar will go down...

When will this end ? Maybe in about a month.

Also beware of a few bear trap on the ways up ... like I said thing will get trickier from here..

Yesterday load a few long contract at 1005 ... may be adding more at the opening... Today will be interesting

Have accumulate a quit a position in Nat Gas @ 3.52 and 3.50 which bring down my averge price to 3.65... hope everything go well... My Nat gas is long term play .. looking to accumulate more on the way..

Good Trade every one.

Short or Long ...

For the next two trading will be treacherous and tricky, but intra day trading should be very rewarding.

I anticipated a fast recovery in this correction... probably by this Thursday....

Looking to long S&P at 990 (major position) which should be a strong hold for this sell off , 988, 986 respectively if it touch .....

Today trading will be monitor closely still bullish on the Market... I might be wrong .

My reason is that the QE will be on for quite some time, and the major bank like GS is still holding on to cash rather lend out to real economy, some this money is believe to be in the market and will be in the market until real sector start picking up...

I bet is that the market might rally to a new high soon probably 1060 or 1080 or 1100, before a real correction start and I bet that the correction might take us down about 20-25% before a new strong bull rally beginning...

Keep an big eye on the market... as I expect to make big profit if my bet is right....


Finally I come a cross a report on the VIX report on bloomberg the link is here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anWx7LRgrFtc which really caught my attention which make me believe the rally will be extended and if there is a selloff in the S&P will really caught the market off guard just like this rally caught a lot of investor off... G.s and Gang they have very very bigh war chest and they will bet against market just to trap investor.

They have the most sophicated trading system... so beware thing will get more and more tricky
from here on


Good trade every one

S&P side way ? Today Trading

Anticipating a rebounding in the early trading session and close flat or small loss at market closing...My take is sell S&P @ 1012 in the early trading and buy back at 1005.... Will update gain in pre market opening...

Good trade every one

Today Bull or Bear...?

Anticipating some correction early in the trading session with late small gain in the S&Pat the end of the market...

If there a huge pull back in the the S&P I planning to add more position....

Currently I do not have any stock pick as most of the company stock are in overbrought and there not much valuation left to buy..

As S&P it is easier to predict due to speculative index.

Looking for opportunity to accumulate Nat Gas @ good position will update the detail in my blog.

Good trade every one


Planning to turn bear sometime in the distant future

From a Bull turning to Bear when will be the best timing?

For a million dollar question... who have the accurate timing will be a millionaire ....

I think the market is forming a strong bear which I use to add some small short position in the S&P ... but 1020 anticipating will be another bear trap, which I will try to short small position at 1022 , 1024 ,1026 and 1030 respectively and buy back at 1010, 1012, 1014 and decending order.

From above range S&P Long at average 1012 to 1040 ..... anticipating major resistance at 1040 ... so might be shorting at this level but I have to see how the market forming in week to come ...

As for Nat Gas 3.55 will be secondary target .... things will be choppy... so have to see how market forming....

Good trading on Monday everyone..

A thought for investment (Credit expansion it is good for economy)

As the stock market rally around the world, it give me feeling that the end of recession is near and we will be approaching a strong rebound at the year end. However , after a deep thought, I think this will be a new beginning for the next sell off in stock Market. when is the sell off will come around maybe in 3 months - 1 years month from now.Economy rebound is merely a illusion just like the world economy is expand due to credit expansion.

A economy created by credit expansion is borrow the future to build the present this can't last ... because it is out of reality...

My short term strategy for August to long in S&P , maybe 1-2 week from now will start shorting aain.. Stay tune for the target and timing. I am Accumulating Nat Gas @ 3.83 planning to add more stay tune for update ..