Hi everyone.
Happy New years
The Chinese raise increase to curb Food inflation, the india have try to control inflation for the past year 2010with rate hike but it seem the inflation cannot be stop and keep charging higher due to commodity supply deficit.. so by raising more rate I think it will do little to stop inflation but will slow down economy.
The raising of agriculture price is also a good things it is like a good way to distribute wealth to farmer which I have see alot of farmer is now getting wealthier which will one way another ... but any too much is not good to little is not good but we will have to leave with high commodities price until the new supply is established.
There is some circulation that the Japaneses debt is getting out of hand and country debt rating is getting cut but it is still class as "rumour" but if there is smoke the fire will follow. With the saving rate decline, this is something to watch out for.. while the rescuer might be the Fed. Cause i think the US need an alliance in asia to contain China influence.
Clearly the china is finding new alliance in the West especially the Europe and central Asia and Africa, like helping funding euro debt backing Spain debt and EURO, this is a strategic political move which will bear fruit once the Europe crisis stabilized in 2012. ( for now the "investor" will focus on the Euro crisis which is relative small when compare with US and Japanese Debt ... so something to look out for.
Australia Flood.
It seem like the the flood in commodities gaint in Austrialia will bring a huge impact to commodities and the situation will get worse before getting better . Like flooding the mine ... it will take month before this mine will be operatable ..
And what will push the oil price up is the the coal, both indonesia and australia is major coal producer..so the bullish in energy is just adding up more chip in this sector.. with the cool weather continue, the natural gas and distaille gasoline will be quicken draw down especially in china.
Soft commodities will too as you guy already know, raising interest rate will not stop any inflation ... this is a classic inflation where demand outpact supply... and not about liquidity.
So long everyone, this should be publish since last week but i was on holiday again..
So cheer everyone..
Please input more comment so I respond more ..
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
China tightening, but the Chinese still need to grow at least 7-9%? so the china bull still on
Hi everyone ,
Hope everyone is well and good health. Just lose some passion is write the blog . But I am back so let go into my thought about things happen around the world.
First I like to spam the inflationary fed keep devalue the dollar purchase power which create a feeling for the world that we are earn more but actual we can buy lesser thing. From the 60 minute show when ben told the show what is in his mind, i start to pile into long in all position stock soft commodity and precious metal and oil.
China is gearing up to fight inflation but will they be able to do that, it is will quit difficult to fight inflation at the same maintaining growth at 8-9%. What china facing is food inflation due to extreme weather happening world and causes supply problem worldwide. We have both the india and china growth at fast rate which mean more middle class is entering the economy... this new working class and middle class will demand better food more meat and good fruit better quality meal better cloth buy more car (by the way with cheap compact car hit the market this will a bullish to oil too) ... With the food constrain with the supply while demand is increase greatly ....
The China is tightening poicy to control but this is not about liquid control , it is about limited supply. People agreedyness will keep push the price to new high.
I bet the commoditity will on the up trend, until new unitl supply is establish.
Oil: bullish possible target US$95.00 - US$ 100 (accumulate at any price US$83.00 - US$89)
GOLD and silver: VERY BULLISH (uptrend with no target insight)
Stock: mild bullish
Soft commodities: VERY BULLISH ( 3- 6 month)
Dollar : BEARISH
Bond: long term bearish
I will add more item in my comment
Hope everyone is well and good health. Just lose some passion is write the blog . But I am back so let go into my thought about things happen around the world.
First I like to spam the inflationary fed keep devalue the dollar purchase power which create a feeling for the world that we are earn more but actual we can buy lesser thing. From the 60 minute show when ben told the show what is in his mind, i start to pile into long in all position stock soft commodity and precious metal and oil.
China is gearing up to fight inflation but will they be able to do that, it is will quit difficult to fight inflation at the same maintaining growth at 8-9%. What china facing is food inflation due to extreme weather happening world and causes supply problem worldwide. We have both the india and china growth at fast rate which mean more middle class is entering the economy... this new working class and middle class will demand better food more meat and good fruit better quality meal better cloth buy more car (by the way with cheap compact car hit the market this will a bullish to oil too) ... With the food constrain with the supply while demand is increase greatly ....
The China is tightening poicy to control but this is not about liquid control , it is about limited supply. People agreedyness will keep push the price to new high.
I bet the commoditity will on the up trend, until new unitl supply is establish.
Oil: bullish possible target US$95.00 - US$ 100 (accumulate at any price US$83.00 - US$89)
GOLD and silver: VERY BULLISH (uptrend with no target insight)
Stock: mild bullish
Soft commodities: VERY BULLISH ( 3- 6 month)
Dollar : BEARISH
Bond: long term bearish
I will add more item in my comment
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Stop Trading Precious metal derivatives ... this is investment trap pit
Hi Everyone,
It is important everyone that there is tendency that the dollar will destablizing soon and alot of currency will be shock from this effect ...
This deficit manged economy is not sustainable and we are getting more and more risk with our way of life with this manipulation..
Derivative like warren buffet said is a weapon of mass destruction and indeed this weapon is getting more destructive then ever . Come to think about it people can buy and sell endless even if there is no physical item left . it is not making any sense .. now the Derivative is the most speculate market .
More and more big institutes expand Derivative trading system, the more people trade via Derivative trading system the more we fall into investment trap without even know the truth fundamental and are at risk making lose in this investment vehicle ...
Althought I like trading Derivative but i am stopping trading Derivative in Preious metal. It getting dangerous and will not get maximize the gain as I would like to and at the same is at risk in making lost. I have start buy silver and gold trust with real physic gold and silver holding which you can redeem .. I think this type of investment vehicle will maximize my saving and profit in long run.
Example Sprott Physical Silver Trust come at a good time when the silver price is under heavy depress or you can buy Everbank gold CD, agorafinanical or invest with Jame turk or caseyresearch ... so I think it one of a vechicle to invest for long term holding, what is best there is on expired like Derivative which the big institue can squeeze in either way. Or best buy physical gold ..
I did not get any advertisment from Sprott and i am not related to Sprott in anyway..
I believe that one day, the gold will shot up in price like no tomorrow once the Derivative collasp ...as there is less gold to delvered .. And when that time come, you will be happy that you did not own your paper gold cause it will default as there is nothing backing it, paper gold is just like IOU gold. Just like dollar where the Fed can print unlimited .
There is a reason which gold survive for the past 5000 years while flat currency will collasp from time to time .every 50 - 100 hundred years
Please pass this link around and protect retail investor from this weapon of destruction. Without prey, the big institues will die so don't let them prey on us.
An elephant can kill an ant but elephant can't kill million ant as long as we know how to defeat the elephant and protect ourself.
Cheer everyone
It is important everyone that there is tendency that the dollar will destablizing soon and alot of currency will be shock from this effect ...
This deficit manged economy is not sustainable and we are getting more and more risk with our way of life with this manipulation..
Derivative like warren buffet said is a weapon of mass destruction and indeed this weapon is getting more destructive then ever . Come to think about it people can buy and sell endless even if there is no physical item left . it is not making any sense .. now the Derivative is the most speculate market .
More and more big institutes expand Derivative trading system, the more people trade via Derivative trading system the more we fall into investment trap without even know the truth fundamental and are at risk making lose in this investment vehicle ...
Althought I like trading Derivative but i am stopping trading Derivative in Preious metal. It getting dangerous and will not get maximize the gain as I would like to and at the same is at risk in making lost. I have start buy silver and gold trust with real physic gold and silver holding which you can redeem .. I think this type of investment vehicle will maximize my saving and profit in long run.
Example Sprott Physical Silver Trust come at a good time when the silver price is under heavy depress or you can buy Everbank gold CD, agorafinanical or invest with Jame turk or caseyresearch ... so I think it one of a vechicle to invest for long term holding, what is best there is on expired like Derivative which the big institue can squeeze in either way. Or best buy physical gold ..
I did not get any advertisment from Sprott and i am not related to Sprott in anyway..
I believe that one day, the gold will shot up in price like no tomorrow once the Derivative collasp ...as there is less gold to delvered .. And when that time come, you will be happy that you did not own your paper gold cause it will default as there is nothing backing it, paper gold is just like IOU gold. Just like dollar where the Fed can print unlimited .
There is a reason which gold survive for the past 5000 years while flat currency will collasp from time to time .every 50 - 100 hundred years
Please pass this link around and protect retail investor from this weapon of destruction. Without prey, the big institues will die so don't let them prey on us.
An elephant can kill an ant but elephant can't kill million ant as long as we know how to defeat the elephant and protect ourself.
Cheer everyone
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Great Revalue of Yuan, and the Great Devalue of Dollar ..
Hi Everyone,
We at another great cross road, where will go from here, recovery or double dip... Alot of bad news start to roll out to the market ...
So are we in correction in the stock market or this is a double dip in the stock market? Only time will have the actual answer.
From my view, I think we are in the proccess of another slow dip in the economy, this dip will not be a fast dip like 2008 but is be a slow and choppy dip and might last until 2012 ... there will be rebound along the waybut the trend will be debt deflation which is quite gloomy when come to consumption in US economy ...
Before going forward, I am not an economist, and my highest education is only high school, so you all in risk in reading my blog , please used your own judgment from here .....
Due to the expansion in credit in government , private sector and the public sector, the current crisis ignite due to over extend of credit expansion and it is coming to end which create asset bubble. The right way to correct this mistake is to wind down credit in all sector, cut spending and repay debt until it come to a sustain level.
Depression is where we fixed problem, that is why we will have deflation during depression. Reducing debt(credit deflation)which will lead to deflation and saving which will automatically make value of money increase in term of value of product.
Anyway, the US government have so far did not fixed any problem in the economy, what they call "remedy" is actually a poison relieve aid which give a false feeling "feel good" but that is not cure it will bring greater problem from time to come ...
The "feel good" pill is waning and look like we might start the double dip sooner then expectation ..
Ok let jump into juice ...
After Trillions of dollar of stimulus , we are on the way back to 2008 but at slow pact. Everyone said the Yuan revalue is the cure the world recovery, how can every economist come this conclusion...what people say is that when yuan gain strength the purchase power for the chinese increase which will result greater consumption... now everyone have to be careful when going forward with this idea.
Yuan revalue, will lead to fast inflation and at the same fast devalue of major currency, the yen,euro and dollar. In this scenario I see the increase purchase of China but at the same time decrease purchase power for major economy.So it is like double edge sword
Inflation together with Higher rate for Bond.
For time to come the Treasury will have to rise and I think the treasury is in it final phrase of it rally cause it is not sustainable cause it just not sustainable for the government to expand deflicit without limit soon all this will have to end.
Starting a Deficit is easy but ending it is like killing you alive it is always a hard choice for government to reduce deficit.
By the year 2011 - 2012, the government will have problem in refinancing the deficit as the treasury will have to raise due to abundant supply treasury and higher risk for accumulating treasury.
It will not be a pretty picture when that time arrive when the government still accumlate deflicit and at the same refinancing their debt which will result more treasury auction.
We will have more and more treasury auction and at rapid pact then 2009. So i am not a bull in treasury no matter what the market say, the higher it go the more i am going short it.
The Dollar will decrease in value at the rapid pact from now on, you can look at dollar when compare to value of Gold and silver, and dollar to oil . IT is getting more expensive to buy gold or oil in dollar or in any currency.
So we have inflation in US in rapid pact from here. The chinese revalue yuan and the raise wages in chinese will have great impact inflation especially the soft commoditites like grain, cotton coffee, etc. They will travel more so the oil consumption will raise.
Why this soft commodities, because the Low wage earner will have more purchasing power, but that does not mean they can effort to buy brand items..this will eventually happen but not at rapid like US would like to see. They will eat better food wear better cloth, drink more expensive drink eat better restaurant.. but that does not mean they can efford to buy house or car with US$200 -250 dollar wages per month, they will from time to come, but the chinese have a habit of saving to buy and not borrow to buy .... so it will alot of frustration to lot of economist.
The Chinese government is trying to control house bubble, I said not it is a bubble, I think the chinese just want to control the speculator so as not to make house unaffordable to raising chinese.. which will be good for the Chjina economy go forward. But for now it will create an hiccup in the economy growth.
At the sametime the consumer in US will have to pay a higher product cost for thing make in china or from other part of the world, but dose not mean it is cheaper to make thing in USA or the jon will start to shift come to USA, it might happen in the distant future but not this year or next years or the next five.. so the consumer in USA will likely to be able to spend lesser and lesser from now on.
The China is changing dollar peg policy to a basket policy,this will not have much impact to Yuan value but it will have greater impact on dollar accumulating pact and they will be more diversify when ome to their reserve.
By buying lesser dollar with Yuan, it will low dollar which in reutn the chinese have less dollar to buy the treasury which will result in raise Treasury yield for time to come.
So it is great likely that this raise yield in treasury, devalue of dollar and faster inflation at the sametime raise tax ... did i say raise tax? YEAH!! raise tax ...Recall bush's tax cut ... yeah this is coming to end, this will have great great impact on consumer althought it will have positive in tax collection and the local government will have to raise tax or collect more fee from US citizen, It will reduce the gobernment pressure and some monthly deflicit but evenrtually the governemnt will find lesser and lesser tax collection as the consumer purchase is greatly reduce from the above event.
which the market in the bullish economist will jump out of all the rabbit to said it is the recovery with the tax collection ... Which I am expecting will have short impact in the market, but I will leave that topic for the future ..
With the dollar devlaue.
I believe every government and central bank around is aware that the dollar is under long term devaluation and I think alot of central bank have and will start to releease more dollar from their collection and this will intensitfy with Yuan win policy ... so I beileve we might witness a fast appreciate of inflation...
Ok, ... will be back for more
We at another great cross road, where will go from here, recovery or double dip... Alot of bad news start to roll out to the market ...
So are we in correction in the stock market or this is a double dip in the stock market? Only time will have the actual answer.
From my view, I think we are in the proccess of another slow dip in the economy, this dip will not be a fast dip like 2008 but is be a slow and choppy dip and might last until 2012 ... there will be rebound along the waybut the trend will be debt deflation which is quite gloomy when come to consumption in US economy ...
Before going forward, I am not an economist, and my highest education is only high school, so you all in risk in reading my blog , please used your own judgment from here .....
Due to the expansion in credit in government , private sector and the public sector, the current crisis ignite due to over extend of credit expansion and it is coming to end which create asset bubble. The right way to correct this mistake is to wind down credit in all sector, cut spending and repay debt until it come to a sustain level.
Depression is where we fixed problem, that is why we will have deflation during depression. Reducing debt(credit deflation)which will lead to deflation and saving which will automatically make value of money increase in term of value of product.
Anyway, the US government have so far did not fixed any problem in the economy, what they call "remedy" is actually a poison relieve aid which give a false feeling "feel good" but that is not cure it will bring greater problem from time to come ...
The "feel good" pill is waning and look like we might start the double dip sooner then expectation ..
Ok let jump into juice ...
After Trillions of dollar of stimulus , we are on the way back to 2008 but at slow pact. Everyone said the Yuan revalue is the cure the world recovery, how can every economist come this conclusion...what people say is that when yuan gain strength the purchase power for the chinese increase which will result greater consumption... now everyone have to be careful when going forward with this idea.
Yuan revalue, will lead to fast inflation and at the same fast devalue of major currency, the yen,euro and dollar. In this scenario I see the increase purchase of China but at the same time decrease purchase power for major economy.So it is like double edge sword
Inflation together with Higher rate for Bond.
For time to come the Treasury will have to rise and I think the treasury is in it final phrase of it rally cause it is not sustainable cause it just not sustainable for the government to expand deflicit without limit soon all this will have to end.
Starting a Deficit is easy but ending it is like killing you alive it is always a hard choice for government to reduce deficit.
By the year 2011 - 2012, the government will have problem in refinancing the deficit as the treasury will have to raise due to abundant supply treasury and higher risk for accumulating treasury.
It will not be a pretty picture when that time arrive when the government still accumlate deflicit and at the same refinancing their debt which will result more treasury auction.
We will have more and more treasury auction and at rapid pact then 2009. So i am not a bull in treasury no matter what the market say, the higher it go the more i am going short it.
The Dollar will decrease in value at the rapid pact from now on, you can look at dollar when compare to value of Gold and silver, and dollar to oil . IT is getting more expensive to buy gold or oil in dollar or in any currency.
So we have inflation in US in rapid pact from here. The chinese revalue yuan and the raise wages in chinese will have great impact inflation especially the soft commoditites like grain, cotton coffee, etc. They will travel more so the oil consumption will raise.
Why this soft commodities, because the Low wage earner will have more purchasing power, but that does not mean they can effort to buy brand items..this will eventually happen but not at rapid like US would like to see. They will eat better food wear better cloth, drink more expensive drink eat better restaurant.. but that does not mean they can efford to buy house or car with US$200 -250 dollar wages per month, they will from time to come, but the chinese have a habit of saving to buy and not borrow to buy .... so it will alot of frustration to lot of economist.
The Chinese government is trying to control house bubble, I said not it is a bubble, I think the chinese just want to control the speculator so as not to make house unaffordable to raising chinese.. which will be good for the Chjina economy go forward. But for now it will create an hiccup in the economy growth.
At the sametime the consumer in US will have to pay a higher product cost for thing make in china or from other part of the world, but dose not mean it is cheaper to make thing in USA or the jon will start to shift come to USA, it might happen in the distant future but not this year or next years or the next five.. so the consumer in USA will likely to be able to spend lesser and lesser from now on.
The China is changing dollar peg policy to a basket policy,this will not have much impact to Yuan value but it will have greater impact on dollar accumulating pact and they will be more diversify when ome to their reserve.
By buying lesser dollar with Yuan, it will low dollar which in reutn the chinese have less dollar to buy the treasury which will result in raise Treasury yield for time to come.
So it is great likely that this raise yield in treasury, devalue of dollar and faster inflation at the sametime raise tax ... did i say raise tax? YEAH!! raise tax ...Recall bush's tax cut ... yeah this is coming to end, this will have great great impact on consumer althought it will have positive in tax collection and the local government will have to raise tax or collect more fee from US citizen, It will reduce the gobernment pressure and some monthly deflicit but evenrtually the governemnt will find lesser and lesser tax collection as the consumer purchase is greatly reduce from the above event.
which the market in the bullish economist will jump out of all the rabbit to said it is the recovery with the tax collection ... Which I am expecting will have short impact in the market, but I will leave that topic for the future ..
With the dollar devlaue.
I believe every government and central bank around is aware that the dollar is under long term devaluation and I think alot of central bank have and will start to releease more dollar from their collection and this will intensitfy with Yuan win policy ... so I beileve we might witness a fast appreciate of inflation...
Ok, ... will be back for more
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Obama and USA hidden fear start to re-emerge... this time is the reverse thrust ...
Hi everyone,
this week I am in writing mood and have a few interesting thought and would like to share with you guy..
The economy as we go from here will choppy down trend .
The Mexico gulf oil spill is the biggest blow to obama simulates planned and thing will get worsae from here after a honey mood rebound in the world market ..
I do understand the economy data from here will be still look ok but I anticipate that thing will start to change from next month onward.
Let jump into my thought on the economy as a big picture.
Why do I start to become bearish from here.
1) The inventories re-stock phrase coming to end.
now the re-stock inventoies is due to previous government sitmulas package on car "cash for Clunk" the housing credit and another sitmulas which result in short term consumption as the result the inventory is quickly depleted. All this program including QE is coming to end or have end, so all the rosy picture is coming home to roast and economy should be back where it right belong which is fixing the problem with a correction.
2)the obama house credit and benefit and job benefit is getting exhuast and coming to end too.. I beleive some of this will become foreclose problem... so the picture in the housing is not looking good.
3) the censure temperoary employment is coming to end too ... this is a short boost to the job market and will have great effect when thisis coming to end ...
4) The whole world is start to rolled back the sitmulas measure to stream down inflation. Europe start, the korea and everyone is starting to rise interest or control groeth... only USA did not have that planned in the mind yet.
5) Mexico oil spill, will be a major and contributor to pr-long trade deficit anf jobless for time to come and I think it will be more serious then everyone anticipated. althought the clean up job also result in some employment but it will not be a quality pay...What I worry is the chain reaction from this event..
6) Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac, this is two insitute is gewtting out of hand with bad debt and will going to cost more problem in the housing market rather then fixed the real problem.now this mortage gaint . I have found this interesting article the link is here http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/business/20foreclose.html?pagewanted=2&src=busln
of all the employment I think both Fannie and Feddie is also another government puppet to create job in maintaining the foreclosure house .. The End result will more tax prayer money and loses. Which no wonder both need a fast injection from the government, cash is running fast ...
============
this week I am in writing mood and have a few interesting thought and would like to share with you guy..
The economy as we go from here will choppy down trend .
The Mexico gulf oil spill is the biggest blow to obama simulates planned and thing will get worsae from here after a honey mood rebound in the world market ..
I do understand the economy data from here will be still look ok but I anticipate that thing will start to change from next month onward.
Let jump into my thought on the economy as a big picture.
Why do I start to become bearish from here.
1) The inventories re-stock phrase coming to end.
now the re-stock inventoies is due to previous government sitmulas package on car "cash for Clunk" the housing credit and another sitmulas which result in short term consumption as the result the inventory is quickly depleted. All this program including QE is coming to end or have end, so all the rosy picture is coming home to roast and economy should be back where it right belong which is fixing the problem with a correction.
2)the obama house credit and benefit and job benefit is getting exhuast and coming to end too.. I beleive some of this will become foreclose problem... so the picture in the housing is not looking good.
3) the censure temperoary employment is coming to end too ... this is a short boost to the job market and will have great effect when thisis coming to end ...
4) The whole world is start to rolled back the sitmulas measure to stream down inflation. Europe start, the korea and everyone is starting to rise interest or control groeth... only USA did not have that planned in the mind yet.
5) Mexico oil spill, will be a major and contributor to pr-long trade deficit anf jobless for time to come and I think it will be more serious then everyone anticipated. althought the clean up job also result in some employment but it will not be a quality pay...What I worry is the chain reaction from this event..
6) Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac, this is two insitute is gewtting out of hand with bad debt and will going to cost more problem in the housing market rather then fixed the real problem.now this mortage gaint . I have found this interesting article the link is here http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/business/20foreclose.html?pagewanted=2&src=busln
of all the employment I think both Fannie and Feddie is also another government puppet to create job in maintaining the foreclosure house .. The End result will more tax prayer money and loses. Which no wonder both need a fast injection from the government, cash is running fast ...
============
Thursday, June 3, 2010
US recovering with oil spill ? huh? eh? Not so fast ...
Hi eveyone one,
I have being travelling and try to take some to update this which I think it is important for everyone to take note of
Bp oil spill is world disaster . It will impact alot of thing job, food and energy.
Obama have freeze all of short drilling. ( This part is already 3 week late but i will put this view for future flash back.)
For job part:
there will alot of people out of job for quite sometime and should not bold well for the job figure in US the next few quater.
(Like the media have reported, business in beach, resturant, hotel and alot of service and oil fishery industry around gulf of mexico will be greatly effect. I think you can name it all there) There will be hang over effect in the economy
For food and fishery
Food chain will be effected and I thik this will also effect the world climate which i think we will extreme weather throught USA or North america in the next few quarter, we will have food supply problem.
And there is Hoof-and-mouth disease out break in Japan...http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/06/10/Hoof-and-mouth-disease-spreads-in-Japan/UPI-15781276222027/
The hog is already in tight supply and I think we should brace for a nice run soon.
About USA recovery, eh?
There is a;ot of noise that the economy is recovering, so it is real? Well i betting the best run US stock market have already done for now , so I will on the short side of the market... Allen but not for Dax, recall the past news letter, which i wrotethat i am very bullish in euro exporting economy like Dax, due to the weakeness in Euro, the weakness in Euro come in a great timing for Europe while the world economy is re-stocking inventories and expanding infastructure . so the dax should be doing good for a while longerbut not for debt ridden economy like PIIGS ... now the Ireland is doing so I think the recovery in ireland will good and sustainable one, everyone should look to invest in this economy for long term play.
But not for USA, what i see the situation getting worse, the economy will immediately collasp without the government life line, and what is making me pessimistic is US consumer having credit expanding, instead of contracting...
So we now have consumer resume consuming credit and the government extending borrowing well.... this is very very bad. and if the corporate bond market revive, I am brace for the Armageddon scenario in US economy in the next 2-4 year from now
In Japan, there is high saving in consumer and japan is still having surplus, while the government borrow heavily from the world so I think overall the economy is still manageable but i did not mean it is good for Japan, I think Japan will soon face greece like crisis but right now the so the debt problem in japan is still manageable.
The us economy is 70% service industries, which mean is realable heavily on consumer service consumption which I see this is evaporating fast which we seeing why the jobless claim is still at this high 450,000 per week .... I don't think i see a recovery here.
Corporation continue to shedded of job while avaibale position is scare. and I don';t think the real umemployment in US is only 9.6% , I have being doing the math, the number don't fit. I think the unemployment should be about 15-20% but anyway, we will use the "official" so the market will " feel good ."
Since 70% of US economy is about service, so i think we will before the sefvice revive, we will need to see, the jobless claim turn negative with continue decline in number and new job added to the economy which i think we will still quite far from that situation. Where we are heading now is quite dangerous ... so I am bracing for a new crisis which should occure in the next 3 quarter from now ....
So how do i planning to manage my port folio.
For Gold, I will be dip buyer, my accumulate target is US$1190 - US$1210, I love all the short seller, they just give me opportunity to buy the gold at cheaper level, which i believe it is cheap when compare the gold price which should at higher level in the time to come, I will take the deliver of the contract I am buying now... paper gold is just fiat currency .
For oil, the price at this level is of courese reason and I think US$70.00 should be a good entry point and 75 - 78 should be a good target for selling short term play.
for longer term play, I think US$68 - 80 should be a good range for 2-3 month holding
For S&P
I think my target of enter short US$1090 - US$1100,
short term play in S&P
Enter short at 1090 - 1100 range (or maybe 1086 if you don't a few point lose) and take profit about 1050 - 1060
for longer target well i think 800 point should be target, souind like impossible but I think this is a conservation target i have in mind.
Soft commoditites.
With so many uncertainty in the environment and climate, and the supply is at a tight range, so I think this a be a dip buy... I am now paying attention to hog,
I am buying into the dip.
That should cover for now.
Have a good trade and good luck everyone
I will be back for more....
I have being travelling and try to take some to update this which I think it is important for everyone to take note of
Bp oil spill is world disaster . It will impact alot of thing job, food and energy.
Obama have freeze all of short drilling. ( This part is already 3 week late but i will put this view for future flash back.)
For job part:
there will alot of people out of job for quite sometime and should not bold well for the job figure in US the next few quater.
(Like the media have reported, business in beach, resturant, hotel and alot of service and oil fishery industry around gulf of mexico will be greatly effect. I think you can name it all there) There will be hang over effect in the economy
For food and fishery
Food chain will be effected and I thik this will also effect the world climate which i think we will extreme weather throught USA or North america in the next few quarter, we will have food supply problem.
And there is Hoof-and-mouth disease out break in Japan...http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/06/10/Hoof-and-mouth-disease-spreads-in-Japan/UPI-15781276222027/
The hog is already in tight supply and I think we should brace for a nice run soon.
About USA recovery, eh?
There is a;ot of noise that the economy is recovering, so it is real? Well i betting the best run US stock market have already done for now , so I will on the short side of the market... Allen but not for Dax, recall the past news letter, which i wrotethat i am very bullish in euro exporting economy like Dax, due to the weakeness in Euro, the weakness in Euro come in a great timing for Europe while the world economy is re-stocking inventories and expanding infastructure . so the dax should be doing good for a while longerbut not for debt ridden economy like PIIGS ... now the Ireland is doing so I think the recovery in ireland will good and sustainable one, everyone should look to invest in this economy for long term play.
But not for USA, what i see the situation getting worse, the economy will immediately collasp without the government life line, and what is making me pessimistic is US consumer having credit expanding, instead of contracting...
So we now have consumer resume consuming credit and the government extending borrowing well.... this is very very bad. and if the corporate bond market revive, I am brace for the Armageddon scenario in US economy in the next 2-4 year from now
In Japan, there is high saving in consumer and japan is still having surplus, while the government borrow heavily from the world so I think overall the economy is still manageable but i did not mean it is good for Japan, I think Japan will soon face greece like crisis but right now the so the debt problem in japan is still manageable.
The us economy is 70% service industries, which mean is realable heavily on consumer service consumption which I see this is evaporating fast which we seeing why the jobless claim is still at this high 450,000 per week .... I don't think i see a recovery here.
Corporation continue to shedded of job while avaibale position is scare. and I don';t think the real umemployment in US is only 9.6% , I have being doing the math, the number don't fit. I think the unemployment should be about 15-20% but anyway, we will use the "official" so the market will " feel good ."
Since 70% of US economy is about service, so i think we will before the sefvice revive, we will need to see, the jobless claim turn negative with continue decline in number and new job added to the economy which i think we will still quite far from that situation. Where we are heading now is quite dangerous ... so I am bracing for a new crisis which should occure in the next 3 quarter from now ....
So how do i planning to manage my port folio.
For Gold, I will be dip buyer, my accumulate target is US$1190 - US$1210, I love all the short seller, they just give me opportunity to buy the gold at cheaper level, which i believe it is cheap when compare the gold price which should at higher level in the time to come, I will take the deliver of the contract I am buying now... paper gold is just fiat currency .
For oil, the price at this level is of courese reason and I think US$70.00 should be a good entry point and 75 - 78 should be a good target for selling short term play.
for longer term play, I think US$68 - 80 should be a good range for 2-3 month holding
For S&P
I think my target of enter short US$1090 - US$1100,
short term play in S&P
Enter short at 1090 - 1100 range (or maybe 1086 if you don't a few point lose) and take profit about 1050 - 1060
for longer target well i think 800 point should be target, souind like impossible but I think this is a conservation target i have in mind.
Soft commoditites.
With so many uncertainty in the environment and climate, and the supply is at a tight range, so I think this a be a dip buy... I am now paying attention to hog,
I am buying into the dip.
That should cover for now.
Have a good trade and good luck everyone
I will be back for more....
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Sad Thing in Thailand ... Red shirt protest is not about democracy
I am closely link to thailand and i have relative living there ...
Thailand is in grieved, the poor have bad understand of true democarcy ... Democracy is not system which is created to benefit people who have money and power but to benefit the society as general ... but for the past 20 years the democracy system have lose it original objective and it now is evolving and become a tool of the rich and the power ..
Now vote buying is rampaging the rural part of Thailand and the vote buying making developing country become more and more unstablized ... People are will to paid to join the "red- shirt" protest I did not mean all the people in the red camp but alot of people there accept money and join the "red shirt" rally ..
Here is one of the example caught on tape when the rally beginning, which you guy can watch from youtube..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU-l0Q7zP2s
Why Red shirt and Thaksin camp want want an immediate election it is because the knew they can buy the vote from the poor ... with the economy is still in uncertainty veto buying will more cheap then before and if we allow that to happen before restoring peace and law in the Thailand. I think Thailand will be on the edge of civil disorder and unlaw bandit will start causing violent in the sociaty... hope you guy and help to reduce this and pass around the message around ... The red shirt protester is not about democracy it about power, greed and manipulation
Thaksin is employ lobbist around the world to help him and red shirt camp PR in foreign media which is every dangerous... anyway we should stop legalize this lobbist company it only make problem for the poeple in general. The media only put 30% of the story.....
http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml
Here is some of the good explaination of what is happen
You can go to the link here http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/37395/put-an-end-to-this-rebellion
or read from below message:
Put an end to this rebellion
* Published: 16/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: News
I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear: It's a rebellion, so put an end to it _ with swiftness, severity and certainty.
The military coup in 2006 wrongly overthrew the then democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. That was no democracy.
The coup council handed the power back to the people in 2007. The People Power Party (PPP) won the following election. That was democracy.
The PPP was banned by the Constitution Court for electoral irregularities and the parliament _ the democratically elected representatives of Thailand _ voted the Democrats into power. That was democracy.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) argue against the Democrat-led coalition government's legitimacy and protest for the government to step down and call a general election.
That was democracy.
And the UDD had won.
The goals of the UDD from the very start: They wanted a House dissolution. They will have one in September. They wanted a general election. They will have one on Nov 14. All within seven months and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's term actually ends in January 2012, a year and a half from now.
They should be dancing in the streets, celebrating victory. Then we can all go to the voting booth in November. Peace and democracy. But no.
The truth has revealed itself. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is simply using democracy as a front in the interests of dictatorship.
Refusing the peaceful compromise, forsaking the democratic process, continuing to harm the country for the interests of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, fighting against security forces of the rightful democratic government of Thailand _ that's an uprising, it's a rebellion.
It's criminal. That is not democracy.
If you disagree with me and think the UDD is in the right, then let me simplify it: The next time you're pulled over by the law in a traffic stop, you should just burn tyres, shoot slingshots at the cop and call him a dictator.
Anyone with an arrest warrant? No need to surrender. Barricade and fortify your home, fire slingshots and fire-crackers and call the law tyrannical.
Buy a lifetime membership to the Association of Anarchists. You don't belong in a civilisation.
The UDD leaders agreed to the prime minister's terms. But instead, Thaksin Shinawatra ordered Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol to step on the brake. Because in his mind, he's screaming: ''What about me!'' ''What do I get out of this entire peace and democracy shenanigans!''
Here's Thaksin's dilemma. Peace and the democratic process don't guarantee his return to power. Someone in Montenegro is kicking and screaming on the floor: ''Me! Me! Me! What about me!''
Accepting the compromise is a loss of face and may even make PM Abhisit look good in the eyes of the people, for biting the bullet and extending his hand. Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer rely on the voting booths. He can no longer rely on the democratic process.
The UDD has used democracy as a tool _ manipulated and exploited it to return Thaksin to power. Now that they are no longer confident that the democratic process will serve their interests, the UDD has transformed itself from a democratic movement into an uprising, a rebellion, a criminal organisation.
It's worth repeating: They wanted a House dissolution. They have one in September. They wanted a general election. They have one on Nov 14. That's democracy. Instead, they flushed democracy down the toilet.
So there's no negotiation other than the complete and total capitulation by the government to the UDD's every will and every whim. It's a total victory that will embarrass the government in the eyes of the Kingdom and of the world and may possibly bury the Democrat party. That's the game.
To Thaksin and the UDD, returning Thaksin to power is worth the 50-odd lives already lost. And that figure is bound to rise. More than 1,000 have been injured and that figure will rise. The billions of baht in economic damage. And that figure will rise.
It's an uprising. It's a rebellion. It's criminal.
The UDD is screaming: ''Now! Now! Now! Prime Minister resign now!'' Thaksin Shinawatra is crying: ''Me! Me! Me! I want my power back!'' That's not democracy. That's a child that needs to be put across the lap for a good spanking.
Let me repeat it again: They wanted democracy. They had democracy. We can all go to the voting booth on Nov 14. But they flushed democracy down the toilet and chose instead, a rebellion.
And when there's a rebellion, the government must put down the rebellion. Otherwise, we have anarchy. The law must be swift, severe and certain _ any student of criminology can tell you that.
I've watched television and read newspapers all this weekend. Most so-called intellectuals, academics and media talk about reconciliation. Well, that's easy and safe _ using a thousand flowery words without saying anything worthwhile.
We reap what we sow. Again, I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear _ it's a rebellion. To preserve civilisation, the government must put down the rebellion _ swift, severe and certain.
UDD members have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible. But they've died in a rebellion against the rightful, democratic government of Thailand.
The security forces that have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.
Journalists and other innocent bystanders have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.
It didn't have to come to this. It shouldn't have come to this. But here we are on the brink of anarchy because of the pride, greed and vengefulness of one man, and of the indecisiveness, uncertainty and lack of leadership of another.
Let me repeat: We reap what we sow. It's a rebellion. Put an end to it, swift, severe and certain. Or step down and let the rebels take over. The longer this crisis drags on, the closer we are and the deeper we will be in a state of anarchy
Thailand is in grieved, the poor have bad understand of true democarcy ... Democracy is not system which is created to benefit people who have money and power but to benefit the society as general ... but for the past 20 years the democracy system have lose it original objective and it now is evolving and become a tool of the rich and the power ..
Now vote buying is rampaging the rural part of Thailand and the vote buying making developing country become more and more unstablized ... People are will to paid to join the "red- shirt" protest I did not mean all the people in the red camp but alot of people there accept money and join the "red shirt" rally ..
Here is one of the example caught on tape when the rally beginning, which you guy can watch from youtube..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU-l0Q7zP2s
Why Red shirt and Thaksin camp want want an immediate election it is because the knew they can buy the vote from the poor ... with the economy is still in uncertainty veto buying will more cheap then before and if we allow that to happen before restoring peace and law in the Thailand. I think Thailand will be on the edge of civil disorder and unlaw bandit will start causing violent in the sociaty... hope you guy and help to reduce this and pass around the message around ... The red shirt protester is not about democracy it about power, greed and manipulation
Thaksin is employ lobbist around the world to help him and red shirt camp PR in foreign media which is every dangerous... anyway we should stop legalize this lobbist company it only make problem for the poeple in general. The media only put 30% of the story.....
http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml
Here is some of the good explaination of what is happen
You can go to the link here http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/37395/put-an-end-to-this-rebellion
or read from below message:
Put an end to this rebellion
* Published: 16/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: News
I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear: It's a rebellion, so put an end to it _ with swiftness, severity and certainty.
The military coup in 2006 wrongly overthrew the then democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. That was no democracy.
The coup council handed the power back to the people in 2007. The People Power Party (PPP) won the following election. That was democracy.
The PPP was banned by the Constitution Court for electoral irregularities and the parliament _ the democratically elected representatives of Thailand _ voted the Democrats into power. That was democracy.
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) argue against the Democrat-led coalition government's legitimacy and protest for the government to step down and call a general election.
That was democracy.
And the UDD had won.
The goals of the UDD from the very start: They wanted a House dissolution. They will have one in September. They wanted a general election. They will have one on Nov 14. All within seven months and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's term actually ends in January 2012, a year and a half from now.
They should be dancing in the streets, celebrating victory. Then we can all go to the voting booth in November. Peace and democracy. But no.
The truth has revealed itself. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is simply using democracy as a front in the interests of dictatorship.
Refusing the peaceful compromise, forsaking the democratic process, continuing to harm the country for the interests of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, fighting against security forces of the rightful democratic government of Thailand _ that's an uprising, it's a rebellion.
It's criminal. That is not democracy.
If you disagree with me and think the UDD is in the right, then let me simplify it: The next time you're pulled over by the law in a traffic stop, you should just burn tyres, shoot slingshots at the cop and call him a dictator.
Anyone with an arrest warrant? No need to surrender. Barricade and fortify your home, fire slingshots and fire-crackers and call the law tyrannical.
Buy a lifetime membership to the Association of Anarchists. You don't belong in a civilisation.
The UDD leaders agreed to the prime minister's terms. But instead, Thaksin Shinawatra ordered Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol to step on the brake. Because in his mind, he's screaming: ''What about me!'' ''What do I get out of this entire peace and democracy shenanigans!''
Here's Thaksin's dilemma. Peace and the democratic process don't guarantee his return to power. Someone in Montenegro is kicking and screaming on the floor: ''Me! Me! Me! What about me!''
Accepting the compromise is a loss of face and may even make PM Abhisit look good in the eyes of the people, for biting the bullet and extending his hand. Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer rely on the voting booths. He can no longer rely on the democratic process.
The UDD has used democracy as a tool _ manipulated and exploited it to return Thaksin to power. Now that they are no longer confident that the democratic process will serve their interests, the UDD has transformed itself from a democratic movement into an uprising, a rebellion, a criminal organisation.
It's worth repeating: They wanted a House dissolution. They have one in September. They wanted a general election. They have one on Nov 14. That's democracy. Instead, they flushed democracy down the toilet.
So there's no negotiation other than the complete and total capitulation by the government to the UDD's every will and every whim. It's a total victory that will embarrass the government in the eyes of the Kingdom and of the world and may possibly bury the Democrat party. That's the game.
To Thaksin and the UDD, returning Thaksin to power is worth the 50-odd lives already lost. And that figure is bound to rise. More than 1,000 have been injured and that figure will rise. The billions of baht in economic damage. And that figure will rise.
It's an uprising. It's a rebellion. It's criminal.
The UDD is screaming: ''Now! Now! Now! Prime Minister resign now!'' Thaksin Shinawatra is crying: ''Me! Me! Me! I want my power back!'' That's not democracy. That's a child that needs to be put across the lap for a good spanking.
Let me repeat it again: They wanted democracy. They had democracy. We can all go to the voting booth on Nov 14. But they flushed democracy down the toilet and chose instead, a rebellion.
And when there's a rebellion, the government must put down the rebellion. Otherwise, we have anarchy. The law must be swift, severe and certain _ any student of criminology can tell you that.
I've watched television and read newspapers all this weekend. Most so-called intellectuals, academics and media talk about reconciliation. Well, that's easy and safe _ using a thousand flowery words without saying anything worthwhile.
We reap what we sow. Again, I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear _ it's a rebellion. To preserve civilisation, the government must put down the rebellion _ swift, severe and certain.
UDD members have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible. But they've died in a rebellion against the rightful, democratic government of Thailand.
The security forces that have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.
Journalists and other innocent bystanders have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.
It didn't have to come to this. It shouldn't have come to this. But here we are on the brink of anarchy because of the pride, greed and vengefulness of one man, and of the indecisiveness, uncertainty and lack of leadership of another.
Let me repeat: We reap what we sow. It's a rebellion. Put an end to it, swift, severe and certain. Or step down and let the rebels take over. The longer this crisis drags on, the closer we are and the deeper we will be in a state of anarchy
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Greatest Fund shifting... Environment and climate changing.
Hi everyone.
It is being a while since I wrote my thought and it seem like my blog will be monthly update with daily commentary update to my blog. The way I wrote here it trying to make everyone who come to the blog to follow throught all the monthly thought and it good to go over what we wrote and feel on the daily movement.
Ok now back to market.
After I took most of my profitfour week ago,
this is my update position : I only have some position left before I left the market.
Current position
Long position in (this a short term play)
Treasury @ 96.80
Short S&P @ 1190
Short euro /dollar between 1.36 - 137
Sell most of my position in commoditites include gold and silver (which seem like a bad move)
All my oil position @ 86.60.
Sell my gold position@ 1150 and silver @ 18.00
So now i am holding 80% of my cash.... looking for opportunity to enter new long position.
========
Currency View.
Still maintain bearish stand on Euro. Look like the euro credit rating start to spread like i have anticipated . Euro will now start the final pharse of decline... cross my finger waiting to close my short and enter long in Euro .
Now the Japanese is getting my attention, it seem like the government debt is exploding while the market is keeping this under the radar, this will somehow starting to have effect on Yen and the situation will be getting deteriorate for the Yen, so everyone who start to pile long in Yen, might need to do more research. Yen is now tight to carry trade so thing will be abit complicate..
Dollar will gain short term wind but should use this wonderful opportunity to exit dollar . i am long term bearish on dollar and most flat currency like i wrote before so alternative long term currency holding will be gold and preious metal.
There is a few good currency which link to commoditites like canada, australia etc ...you can check out everbank, they good at currency view.
==========
Big Picture view.
US Economy and the world is still in re-stocking pharse , so there should more feel good story for time to come but, once this short term phenomenon end which i suspect will have another quarter to run ... so there will jigsaw move in the world market but the trend should be down ... this is something which you need to take note of.
Greek crisis and Portugal look like the next time bomb ... which bold well for my short in Euro, hope to hit my mark @ 124- 126 which I have start to take some profit from my short.
Seem like the Germany would like the Euro to be weaken which should bold for Germany and a few Euro zone economy in the next quarter like i have wrote in my previous letter.
But with the credit crisis start to spread fast, Germany better start to do demage control before the crisis spread like the 1998 south east asia financial crisis which start from Thailand and quickly spread to south east aisia country.
============
Commodities outlook.
ok let talk about climate changing it is seem like the world is having a great shift is weather which could impact in global commodities supply and demand.
With raising Chinese and India medium class, i betting the commodities will have more run, weather and climatic have serious impact on the supply side while the demand keep rasing, any short term disruption in output will have serious impact in the commodities price.This is a thing which you guy need to take note of
http://www.almanac.com/forum/weather-forum/theos-astromet-forecast-el-nino-2010
Oil
After taking my profit in oil i am look to enter oil again but probably at lower range like US$72-73 range..now close my finger waiting for opportunity to go long.
the BP oil in the cost of US deep water drilling this will effect seafood and live stock which have unexpected out come of the price of seafood food item.. which should find some seafood stock in asia pacific region company to go long or comnpany which have right to fish in this region ..
This BP oil spill, just make me think how dangerous the deep sea drill is and will have huge impact on the oil price and environment for time to come. The world still have oil reserve, the only problem it is in far reach and dangerous area..
Commentary on oil market:
It is time for oil to face liquidation so i think the price could drove in deep a bit... but please beware this is only short term ... should look for opportunity to go long.
=============
Stock
After take my profit in S&P index, well at the time it look like well ahead but this is all about tricking the market. which i have fortunate to being able to add more short before the market clash.
I have not yet close my short position, i have a feeling this will be quite a severe correction... better go short or keep cash in hand if you are afraid to extend your short...
I think it is possible the correction to reach 1000 - 1050 range point in the s&P index, so it should be quite a run i think.
Please note that this is my personnel feeling , and just a prediction base on my crazy calculation ... please use your own gut and feeling when doing the investment ....
=============
Gold and precious metal.
it seem the bad move i make is in gold ( which i did not why i hit the sell button) but look ok in my silver position.
Althought the gold is looking bullish, but i still recluntant to add my gold position at this level, there is treasury auction going on so i think the "big boy" will have something up in their mind"beware".
I am bracing for the final rally and will sell my treasury @ 103.5 and will start to pull short ... but i will see again ..
=========
China outlook..
It seem like a lot of investor is betting China will belly up, betting against is worst then betting against USA ... We will see some slow down in the property activity, i did not see clashed, the debt per houshold in Chinese is still low so i will leave" the chinese will belly up thoery " for the next two years... but now let enjoy the growth.
Althought the chinese is curbing lending in the property market, in shanhai and big city, but the world expo will generate alot of income for chinese and which will result in stability in preperty market in Chinese market. Which i did not see the chinese preperty market will pop but i think we will see slower growth wh9ich is good for long run.
===========
===========
Investment strategy:
Currency:
Prepare to go long euro when the 1.20 - 1.24 range
prepare to short Euro/Yen
Bond/
Prepare to short bond @ 103.50 - 105 range on ward.
Gold and precious,
I have a feeling there might be some force liquidation in the precious market... I will look for a good opportunity to long when the gold touch US$1100 - 1110 range .. cross my finger ...
Oil
I same like gold my target to go long is about US72 -73 range or lower ..
S&P/stock,
I see further pressure in the stock market, still keeping my short the selling should last quite a while.
I am do not have mood to write for the past day but yestersday activity good me a boost and morale ...so happy trading everyone.
Good trade every one
It is being a while since I wrote my thought and it seem like my blog will be monthly update with daily commentary update to my blog. The way I wrote here it trying to make everyone who come to the blog to follow throught all the monthly thought and it good to go over what we wrote and feel on the daily movement.
Ok now back to market.
After I took most of my profitfour week ago,
this is my update position : I only have some position left before I left the market.
Current position
Long position in (this a short term play)
Treasury @ 96.80
Short S&P @ 1190
Short euro /dollar between 1.36 - 137
Sell most of my position in commoditites include gold and silver (which seem like a bad move)
All my oil position @ 86.60.
Sell my gold position@ 1150 and silver @ 18.00
So now i am holding 80% of my cash.... looking for opportunity to enter new long position.
========
Currency View.
Still maintain bearish stand on Euro. Look like the euro credit rating start to spread like i have anticipated . Euro will now start the final pharse of decline... cross my finger waiting to close my short and enter long in Euro .
Now the Japanese is getting my attention, it seem like the government debt is exploding while the market is keeping this under the radar, this will somehow starting to have effect on Yen and the situation will be getting deteriorate for the Yen, so everyone who start to pile long in Yen, might need to do more research. Yen is now tight to carry trade so thing will be abit complicate..
Dollar will gain short term wind but should use this wonderful opportunity to exit dollar . i am long term bearish on dollar and most flat currency like i wrote before so alternative long term currency holding will be gold and preious metal.
There is a few good currency which link to commoditites like canada, australia etc ...you can check out everbank, they good at currency view.
==========
Big Picture view.
US Economy and the world is still in re-stocking pharse , so there should more feel good story for time to come but, once this short term phenomenon end which i suspect will have another quarter to run ... so there will jigsaw move in the world market but the trend should be down ... this is something which you need to take note of.
Greek crisis and Portugal look like the next time bomb ... which bold well for my short in Euro, hope to hit my mark @ 124- 126 which I have start to take some profit from my short.
Seem like the Germany would like the Euro to be weaken which should bold for Germany and a few Euro zone economy in the next quarter like i have wrote in my previous letter.
But with the credit crisis start to spread fast, Germany better start to do demage control before the crisis spread like the 1998 south east asia financial crisis which start from Thailand and quickly spread to south east aisia country.
============
Commodities outlook.
ok let talk about climate changing it is seem like the world is having a great shift is weather which could impact in global commodities supply and demand.
With raising Chinese and India medium class, i betting the commodities will have more run, weather and climatic have serious impact on the supply side while the demand keep rasing, any short term disruption in output will have serious impact in the commodities price.This is a thing which you guy need to take note of
http://www.almanac.com/forum/weather-forum/theos-astromet-forecast-el-nino-2010
Oil
After taking my profit in oil i am look to enter oil again but probably at lower range like US$72-73 range..now close my finger waiting for opportunity to go long.
the BP oil in the cost of US deep water drilling this will effect seafood and live stock which have unexpected out come of the price of seafood food item.. which should find some seafood stock in asia pacific region company to go long or comnpany which have right to fish in this region ..
This BP oil spill, just make me think how dangerous the deep sea drill is and will have huge impact on the oil price and environment for time to come. The world still have oil reserve, the only problem it is in far reach and dangerous area..
Commentary on oil market:
It is time for oil to face liquidation so i think the price could drove in deep a bit... but please beware this is only short term ... should look for opportunity to go long.
=============
Stock
After take my profit in S&P index, well at the time it look like well ahead but this is all about tricking the market. which i have fortunate to being able to add more short before the market clash.
I have not yet close my short position, i have a feeling this will be quite a severe correction... better go short or keep cash in hand if you are afraid to extend your short...
I think it is possible the correction to reach 1000 - 1050 range point in the s&P index, so it should be quite a run i think.
Please note that this is my personnel feeling , and just a prediction base on my crazy calculation ... please use your own gut and feeling when doing the investment ....
=============
Gold and precious metal.
it seem the bad move i make is in gold ( which i did not why i hit the sell button) but look ok in my silver position.
Althought the gold is looking bullish, but i still recluntant to add my gold position at this level, there is treasury auction going on so i think the "big boy" will have something up in their mind"beware".
I am bracing for the final rally and will sell my treasury @ 103.5 and will start to pull short ... but i will see again ..
=========
China outlook..
It seem like a lot of investor is betting China will belly up, betting against is worst then betting against USA ... We will see some slow down in the property activity, i did not see clashed, the debt per houshold in Chinese is still low so i will leave" the chinese will belly up thoery " for the next two years... but now let enjoy the growth.
Althought the chinese is curbing lending in the property market, in shanhai and big city, but the world expo will generate alot of income for chinese and which will result in stability in preperty market in Chinese market. Which i did not see the chinese preperty market will pop but i think we will see slower growth wh9ich is good for long run.
===========
===========
Investment strategy:
Currency:
Prepare to go long euro when the 1.20 - 1.24 range
prepare to short Euro/Yen
Bond/
Prepare to short bond @ 103.50 - 105 range on ward.
Gold and precious,
I have a feeling there might be some force liquidation in the precious market... I will look for a good opportunity to long when the gold touch US$1100 - 1110 range .. cross my finger ...
Oil
I same like gold my target to go long is about US72 -73 range or lower ..
S&P/stock,
I see further pressure in the stock market, still keeping my short the selling should last quite a while.
I am do not have mood to write for the past day but yestersday activity good me a boost and morale ...so happy trading everyone.
Good trade every one
Monday, March 29, 2010
Rally puzzel start to fit.... brace for finally and prepare to take profit..
Hi Everyone,
I have wrote since last 2 week that the stock rally rally will start to make sense in 2-3 weeks from now ... it seem like the rally support new is starting to hit the market ...
Recall when i wrote month ago about US is in re-stock mode not only US but technically the who;e world is re-stock...with US government job stimulas hitting the market starting next month .. I guese the market rally will extended ...
US outlook for the next two quarter the job situation in USA will start show strong sign of rebound but should be a temporary one ...rally is sweet but becareful once the news is too good to be true ... sell into the rally and start pile short .. from now the new rolling will be fundamental supported news .
the recent strong dollar might not be conincident, if dollar strength during inventories re-stock it mean that US is paying cheaper for good in exchange for dollar which be good for consumer as they will pay cheaper .... it is another way of stimulus spending while keep the inflation in check which will support bond.
However it sad that the job creation from export sector might have the side effect from the dollarstrength, if the dollar continues to march toward 85 (when compare with major currency) which i see there is some chance but still conservative.. then i think the trade deficit for US and trade partner will be widen which should not be good for dollar in long run but for short run it is like heroine (too good to be true)as matter of fact i believe the coming trade report should show huge increase in deficit .... which mean the government will need to auction more treasury... this is not going to look good my friend ..
====
EURO
The recent Greek and Portugal problem is still weight some pressure on EURO with Spain, italy is on the list of joining the list ...EURO dollar stll look bearsh for now
The way EURO handle greek for me i think it really fixed long term deficit problem for EURO zone economy, not only Greek but all member in EURO zone but there will short term plain for economy ...but good for long run ...
In short term the Euro will still be under pressure but it will help the EURO fixed the trade deficit faster ....well maybe the Greek and Protugal will export more in the next quarter same for another Euro zone member.some their number is expect to be good or very good .
Depend on how weak is the EURO...
I am turning bullish on Euro zone economy except UK and Ireland.
Euro equites should continues side way momentum so i am happy for you if you still ply on the long side.. when to start selling stock in EURO economy ... my play is when the EUro start gaining strength, i mean real strength like 1.45 mark ..
Euro dollar:
Short term bearish 1-2 month.
Long term bullish.
Will start to place long position @ 1.25 ... now cross my finger ...
Strategy:
Short term strategy short EURO on strength like 1.35 -1.37 take profit every 1-2 precent. becarful don;t let the greediness get hold of you..
===============
Oil and Nagas.
I am still bullish on Oil bearish on Natgas....two week ago i wrote some commentary on oil and Natgas in http://seekingalpha.com/ section"commoditites today" you can detect my commentary as "predictor1976"
I wrote about Natgas as bearish since the price is about US$5.36...this is the link which post my commentary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192214-today-in-commodities-march-madness?source=commenter
Please on the thought here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192779-today-in-commodities-a-year-later-are-we-any-better-off?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/193992-today-in-commodities-a-delusional-fed?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195828-today-in-commodities-keeping-the-faith?source=commenter
I think maintaining my first target for oil is US$85.00, if this mark touch then we will see US$90 - 95 mark.
Strategy= Long position , hold
Now i am waiting for short squeeze senario to happen in oil, which only U$90- 95 will effect force lot of short to cover this is the area where i will start to pile my short ....
=============
For gold and other commodites i will try to updatew again later ... will extend commentary
============
I have wrote since last 2 week that the stock rally rally will start to make sense in 2-3 weeks from now ... it seem like the rally support new is starting to hit the market ...
Recall when i wrote month ago about US is in re-stock mode not only US but technically the who;e world is re-stock...with US government job stimulas hitting the market starting next month .. I guese the market rally will extended ...
US outlook for the next two quarter the job situation in USA will start show strong sign of rebound but should be a temporary one ...rally is sweet but becareful once the news is too good to be true ... sell into the rally and start pile short .. from now the new rolling will be fundamental supported news .
the recent strong dollar might not be conincident, if dollar strength during inventories re-stock it mean that US is paying cheaper for good in exchange for dollar which be good for consumer as they will pay cheaper .... it is another way of stimulus spending while keep the inflation in check which will support bond.
However it sad that the job creation from export sector might have the side effect from the dollarstrength, if the dollar continues to march toward 85 (when compare with major currency) which i see there is some chance but still conservative.. then i think the trade deficit for US and trade partner will be widen which should not be good for dollar in long run but for short run it is like heroine (too good to be true)as matter of fact i believe the coming trade report should show huge increase in deficit .... which mean the government will need to auction more treasury... this is not going to look good my friend ..
====
EURO
The recent Greek and Portugal problem is still weight some pressure on EURO with Spain, italy is on the list of joining the list ...EURO dollar stll look bearsh for now
The way EURO handle greek for me i think it really fixed long term deficit problem for EURO zone economy, not only Greek but all member in EURO zone but there will short term plain for economy ...but good for long run ...
In short term the Euro will still be under pressure but it will help the EURO fixed the trade deficit faster ....well maybe the Greek and Protugal will export more in the next quarter same for another Euro zone member.some their number is expect to be good or very good .
Depend on how weak is the EURO...
I am turning bullish on Euro zone economy except UK and Ireland.
Euro equites should continues side way momentum so i am happy for you if you still ply on the long side.. when to start selling stock in EURO economy ... my play is when the EUro start gaining strength, i mean real strength like 1.45 mark ..
Euro dollar:
Short term bearish 1-2 month.
Long term bullish.
Will start to place long position @ 1.25 ... now cross my finger ...
Strategy:
Short term strategy short EURO on strength like 1.35 -1.37 take profit every 1-2 precent. becarful don;t let the greediness get hold of you..
===============
Oil and Nagas.
I am still bullish on Oil bearish on Natgas....two week ago i wrote some commentary on oil and Natgas in http://seekingalpha.com/ section"commoditites today" you can detect my commentary as "predictor1976"
I wrote about Natgas as bearish since the price is about US$5.36...this is the link which post my commentary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192214-today-in-commodities-march-madness?source=commenter
Please on the thought here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192779-today-in-commodities-a-year-later-are-we-any-better-off?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/193992-today-in-commodities-a-delusional-fed?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195828-today-in-commodities-keeping-the-faith?source=commenter
I think maintaining my first target for oil is US$85.00, if this mark touch then we will see US$90 - 95 mark.
Strategy= Long position , hold
Now i am waiting for short squeeze senario to happen in oil, which only U$90- 95 will effect force lot of short to cover this is the area where i will start to pile my short ....
=============
For gold and other commodites i will try to updatew again later ... will extend commentary
============
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Flat currency and it own debtness... Buy gold or commoditites is the best for your safety
Hi Everyone.
It is quite sometime since I last update my Blog ...
There is afew thing have unfolded for the past few week which is quite spooky for flat currency , and debt market...
For all the bull and bear ... currency it is getting more bearish as it go forward ..
1)First the Greek hidden.
2)China start selling US Security,
3)tresury bond auction almost fail ...
This is something and we investor need to beware of the changes of this magnitube ..
Yestersday is a show of force of what is to come in the near future, question is : is the currency you are hold is up to it value even with debt/deficit ?..
Currency need to be able to store value but not accumulate debt ..
Gold have being used as mediem of exchange for the past 5000 years and still able to store value til date, history have taught about debt, inflation and economice collasp due to currency problem ..
Ok let jump into my view and trend ..
Let talk about debt in Greek and Fed , They somehow is it is as spook as it get
The deficit of Greek should not actual so much impact in EUR zone economice but what really shock me is the hidden debt which have being accumulate for the past years and ECB is not being able to audit the debt. Sound familar ... I think the Fed is also have ton of hidden debt and the big problem they are refusing congress to audit, this is someting which is more spooky then Greek's hidden debt.
From the treasury auction result, I feared that we might have a currency crsis which i really hope it will not happen, but if it happen well you guy better buy lot of commodities and precious metal in your portfolio... buy some real gold... paper gold is as good as Flat currency...
And china have being selling US security for the past month, well this is a change of trend, so i will not going to be a bull dollar from here on ..
=================
Why there is a big bang on market yestersday.
I smell sense of fear in debt market and currency, as investor shifting fund out to hold commoditites ...
Yestersday have caught alot of investor off guard but predictable is you knew what behind the move ..
==========
Any dip in commoditites is a BUY from here, timing wise will depend of your gust...I can tell you this , it is will nervous and depress on the dip ..
will be back for more ..
It is quite sometime since I last update my Blog ...
There is afew thing have unfolded for the past few week which is quite spooky for flat currency , and debt market...
For all the bull and bear ... currency it is getting more bearish as it go forward ..
1)First the Greek hidden.
2)China start selling US Security,
3)tresury bond auction almost fail ...
This is something and we investor need to beware of the changes of this magnitube ..
Yestersday is a show of force of what is to come in the near future, question is : is the currency you are hold is up to it value even with debt/deficit ?..
Currency need to be able to store value but not accumulate debt ..
Gold have being used as mediem of exchange for the past 5000 years and still able to store value til date, history have taught about debt, inflation and economice collasp due to currency problem ..
Ok let jump into my view and trend ..
Let talk about debt in Greek and Fed , They somehow is it is as spook as it get
The deficit of Greek should not actual so much impact in EUR zone economice but what really shock me is the hidden debt which have being accumulate for the past years and ECB is not being able to audit the debt. Sound familar ... I think the Fed is also have ton of hidden debt and the big problem they are refusing congress to audit, this is someting which is more spooky then Greek's hidden debt.
From the treasury auction result, I feared that we might have a currency crsis which i really hope it will not happen, but if it happen well you guy better buy lot of commodities and precious metal in your portfolio... buy some real gold... paper gold is as good as Flat currency...
And china have being selling US security for the past month, well this is a change of trend, so i will not going to be a bull dollar from here on ..
=================
Why there is a big bang on market yestersday.
I smell sense of fear in debt market and currency, as investor shifting fund out to hold commoditites ...
Yestersday have caught alot of investor off guard but predictable is you knew what behind the move ..
==========
Any dip in commoditites is a BUY from here, timing wise will depend of your gust...I can tell you this , it is will nervous and depress on the dip ..
will be back for more ..
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Happy New year . What to invest , the best hedge for your money and value.
Hi everyone,
It was quite sometime since my last newsletter which sometime some misfortunate event will sudden strike without notice.. it was lucky for me to have tradegy pass by .. I realised one thing which we should not forget .. your real life , family, and what we want to do together with our family ....
should treasure every moment. After this event, i will spent more time with family and friend, enjoy every moment of out life till it last ... ok some long for the soap story let jump in to the letter.
While look like the dollar is gaining real momentum on it strength which should last for a while but not a trend which there is line draw between .
The main reason 1) the short are taking profit, USA oversea company is bring profit back to USA.
The weak dollar is still intact so take note of this ..
China send a message to the world that they will NOT yield world presuure of revalue yuan, this is another factor which will support dollar in short to medium as yuan is tight to dollar.
what is this imply, well, the other central will be force to support dollar in order to support yuan in order to reduce yuan competitive edge in export market. Which mean that they will too buy more dollar to do that . which will cool down short term inflation in dollar.
That is why gold and silver see a short term pressure in price and should under some more pressure. Should accumulate when price is depressed.
I still see some presuure in the gold and silver price..
Gold Strong support line US$1070.00 and silver US$16.45 .
Gold and precious metal is still upward trend should accumulate on weakness...
============
Prepare to short equities market ...
After a strong run in 2009, will expect some meaningful correction in the market which is long due ... I will start put short in S&P targeting 1280 - 1300 range.
But i anticipate the market will try to confuse the trend with strong dollar and strong equities at the same time ... have to cautious if you are adding equities at this point .
================
Oil and Nat gas
For oil and Nat gas, i would like to talk oil first, the cheap oil field is depleting and it is only going to cost us much cost to produce a barrel of oil the it used to ..
So the the oil is going to get expensive in regardless to the strength of dollar. we will see some up and down but this is the trend i see.
Nat Gas, cheap oil field depletine and seem like the world is turning to Nat Gas for the source of energy and this is the trend ... technically world is going to consume more energy then ever.
Well , we might see Nat gas gain some stength from here but any going to play or buy should be short term holding as the price have jump more then 40% from US$4.36 ...
Oil target need to do catch up so i believe US$85.00 should touch this time.
===================
Soft commodities
It is the investment of 2010, El niyo weather will surely pressure to soft commoditites output, i expect soft coommoditites to make a good run and make huge profit from these investment.
China and india, will consume more then ever at the same the bad weather will cause problem to the commoditites out in the homeland.. I will prepare for the rally in soft commoditites.
Hope everyone will have a fantastic hoilday and a every happy news years.
see you on Monday ..
It was quite sometime since my last newsletter which sometime some misfortunate event will sudden strike without notice.. it was lucky for me to have tradegy pass by .. I realised one thing which we should not forget .. your real life , family, and what we want to do together with our family ....
should treasure every moment. After this event, i will spent more time with family and friend, enjoy every moment of out life till it last ... ok some long for the soap story let jump in to the letter.
While look like the dollar is gaining real momentum on it strength which should last for a while but not a trend which there is line draw between .
The main reason 1) the short are taking profit, USA oversea company is bring profit back to USA.
The weak dollar is still intact so take note of this ..
China send a message to the world that they will NOT yield world presuure of revalue yuan, this is another factor which will support dollar in short to medium as yuan is tight to dollar.
what is this imply, well, the other central will be force to support dollar in order to support yuan in order to reduce yuan competitive edge in export market. Which mean that they will too buy more dollar to do that . which will cool down short term inflation in dollar.
That is why gold and silver see a short term pressure in price and should under some more pressure. Should accumulate when price is depressed.
I still see some presuure in the gold and silver price..
Gold Strong support line US$1070.00 and silver US$16.45 .
Gold and precious metal is still upward trend should accumulate on weakness...
============
Prepare to short equities market ...
After a strong run in 2009, will expect some meaningful correction in the market which is long due ... I will start put short in S&P targeting 1280 - 1300 range.
But i anticipate the market will try to confuse the trend with strong dollar and strong equities at the same time ... have to cautious if you are adding equities at this point .
================
Oil and Nat gas
For oil and Nat gas, i would like to talk oil first, the cheap oil field is depleting and it is only going to cost us much cost to produce a barrel of oil the it used to ..
So the the oil is going to get expensive in regardless to the strength of dollar. we will see some up and down but this is the trend i see.
Nat Gas, cheap oil field depletine and seem like the world is turning to Nat Gas for the source of energy and this is the trend ... technically world is going to consume more energy then ever.
Well , we might see Nat gas gain some stength from here but any going to play or buy should be short term holding as the price have jump more then 40% from US$4.36 ...
Oil target need to do catch up so i believe US$85.00 should touch this time.
===================
Soft commodities
It is the investment of 2010, El niyo weather will surely pressure to soft commoditites output, i expect soft coommoditites to make a good run and make huge profit from these investment.
China and india, will consume more then ever at the same the bad weather will cause problem to the commoditites out in the homeland.. I will prepare for the rally in soft commoditites.
Hope everyone will have a fantastic hoilday and a every happy news years.
see you on Monday ..
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