What will happen if US Dollar Fail or Devalue Greatly? .... Let put on the debate ..

Hi everyone,

It quite sometime now and I hope everyone is well...


As everyone know I am long term bear in Dollar and bond, bullish on precious metal gold and especially silver and emerging market.

So today i would like to come out with a topic " What will happen when dollar devalue or Fail?

This what I think in general.

in stock S&P prospective apparently we are seeing a rally but deep under the market is under correction in term of EURO. this idea is abit extreme but if take Euro back in 2007 and value in S&P back then, You will get what i mean.

So why I am close my short, I believe the dollar is in free fall for now, which is something bigger picture then stock valuation. As long as dollar keep falling the other asset will keep inflated. So it is going to be quit bullish going forward in "very" short term.

As For Gold and silver , a correction is imminent but i suspect that it will not happen soon due to skeptic in the rally like what is happening to me .. alot of people is still waiting in the sideline waiting to buy on dip while the short keep short covering... Something big is coming and it will come sooner then expected....

So i will wait for a dip first before adding to the future.

For Dollar , bond and deficit ..

I having being following the news around the world and it seem like the world keep blaming china for manipulation in the currency

Now it seem like the US is not going to be responsible for the debt and the dollar printing, they is care little for the creditor while keep pumping dollar into world economy , support unemplyment benefit, lower tax for the rich, world wide military invention and politics invention.

So now all the creditor is to be blame for the mass.. to be fair ... the US debt situation is getting out of hand and the problem will have great impact on global scale.

So phyical gold and silver will be your ultimate hedge against this uncertainty. Like i mention above the short covering rally have push the price to all time and it seem like there nothing to stop the rally.

But one thing for sure that a correction is imminent along in the rally, there is also sideline money which waiting anxiety to enter the market so might a higher price but how high the market will go before correction this is the most tricky part, i think as soon as the short have complete flash out and the dollar hit 69.5 or a bit lower then the correct will ignite. we might see a correct toward US$38-US40 but this is my opinion it might not happen.

One interesting move for the past week is the dollar index make new low but the gold and silver is pity stable so it is a bit fishy here.

I am hold back in my precious metal future investment for a while , no matter how high it go, from my experience never chase a bull or a bear market no matter how bullish or bearish you are cause you might be trap in your investment especially in future, and will cause you very misery and you will be induce to make bad decision. As bad decision is alway being make during depress mood.. so it is better to make invest when you have a clear mind.

The important of investment is to make money and stay happy, and not lose money and sad.


I will post my precious metal position once i have made my investment.

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As for oil,

After the nuclear incident in Japan, Japan have problem in keep up with the power supply, and oil is an quick fix to the situation so i think oil will find a lot of support going forward.

The oil market is very strong and it is getting strong as day go by. Coonsumption is raise at rapid in ermerging market , I think we will see oil at 120 -125 nymex soon. Should used any dip as another opportunity add position.

I think we will see another correction at 112 -113 area, so i will cross my finger and wait target correction is 103-106 area.

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As for stock,


The dollar devaluation will be supportive to the stock market for now but that does not mean we should bullish on stock. Inflation with high oil which will creating a lot problem for consumer going forward.

This cost raise will have great problem for company to raise in this unpredictable situation, so i guess the earning for a lot of company is peeking and the bull going forward should not be big move to the upside.

When the stock will correct, i think need to focus on dollar index for the clue here, i suspect the dollar index will fall to 69.5 or lower, if the situation occur, i think it is almost time to short the stock market cause there will be panick in dollar once it breach 70.8

Which the dollar index rebound we will see some serious correct a cross board so for precious metal and stock, so i will brace for this scenario to occur.

Will add most commentary later.

Have a nice day every 1