Bond, gold, dollar, stock ? Bond rally

Getting busy with business and thank you for very input in this blog... hope this blog will develop knowledge investment based blog...

there is alot of thing to cover let jump to anylsis ..


The pass week there a change in trading fundamental model which I have suspected that more fund will be shift into precious metal and commoditites. The precious metal have consolidate last week as i have anticipated and expect a hard rally this week and will make high every week throught the end of year 2009 ..


Dollar and Bond ?

There is bond auction annoucement of 112 billion dollar ... i believe this time is the same drill like I used to write ... so we have see some short term pressure as hot money will pulll outof the market and will used this opport to relocate the investment and this time, I believe it will in commodities and precious including Oil and Nat Gas..

I have a reader who ask me to read an interesting blog regard inflation fear and unexpect rate hike and acticle is trying to link bond movement with stock market in 2008 ....There some different between the 2008 and 2009.

1) That was 2008 but the now is 2009 so the time line is different.
2) 2008 we nearly have system collasp 2009 we have fundmental structure change in the world economy.
3)2008 crsis is new to world economy but the crisis have now become a new normal for the world economy.
4) Like a say a few time, US do not want a strong dollar same as for Yuan .. so we will have some swinging in currency trading but eventually chinese will allow Yuan to gain strength when dollar inflation became dangerous which i think somewhere next years we will a strong Yuan ... when this occured I hope you have already some gold in your profolio for long term play or saving ..

Now why I think the US want a weaker currency and do not expect rate hike

1) Weaker dollar will allow fed to inflate some debt away.
2) Improve export and bring back job from over sea .
3) US government is trying to stablized house which i expect a new problem in real estate somewhere so low rate is needed to cusion the impact ... technical there is no anitdote for US economy the old power still want the system alive so we will leave life line for a time being or as long as it take the the Fed Chair say in interview sometime ago .

Prepare for Yuan strength in the future which will fuel demand for yuan and yuan demoinated bond which result more dollar unwinding ..

Economy is in deflation and but not dollar. Assest which demoninated when compare to dollar will be inflation ... I call dollar inflation

Conclusion:
Dollar will resume weakness and bond should be resume ... just waste a few opport unity to short due to away from trading desk ... still look for opportunity to short bnd.


Bond ?
Well technically i am not a bull in bond some time in the future we will have bond unwinding ..
This time will we see the short term maturity bond sale @ record as the overnment is trying to row over the debt but the market is over supply with 10 years note and we will see more short term bond sale more in the distant future ...

Wrap up

Gold and Precious will make new high very week from now through out 2009 at least.

Soft commoditites will rally will rally just like sugar in the past month

Nat gas and oil is a bit lag but should close up the gap and expect strong rebound in this week trading session

Equity have already made some correct in last week session so I expect consolidation and will ended higher by this weekend ended.

Will extend commentary during the trading session .

hope everyone have a great trading day

Obama desperate call with US Desperate meadure? China is under pressure ? The trade conflict ?

Hi everyone don't really time, business and family time ..so I guess have to divide time...

In today issue. I would like focus my thought on trade protection this is serious and create unnesccesary inflation to economy and apply faster change trade structure.

what the USA government is trying to do bring the job back to USA but by doing this will only accelerate the inflation in Dollar economy. Which is more dangerous then jobless in USA .

The amount of dollar in the world economy have increase a a tremendous rate to make the situation worse, central bank around the world start to diversify away from dollar which result in additional dollar in the world economy

If US is planning to buy less from the world and do trade protection so other country will invest lesser in us bond and accumulate lesser dollar .... this dollar with low rate will then be inflate to commoditiy and stock and all assest class ... Technically there is just too much flat currency in the world economy to chase fewer goods...

A lot of county is watching the trade war between and this is not bode well for dollar ..

US cannot just increase tax because another country are willing to sell to US @ cheaper rate that is not how capitalise work ...

I heard alot of talk how stock and assest is overbrought and need correction ..but lot of people forget to realise that dollar is over printed.. there is just too much dollar ... be my guese if you think the dollar will rallly hard and all assest class will have hard correction. We will have one but the time is not now .. I think we have just enter a new inflation bull phrase.

I just forget my thought on one issue which is quite important ...... will be back ...

Ok got that thought back ...

Well , if the obama and US government will do what ever is take to stimulus the economy so I think if there is bad news on economy well... I think is buy that is because the government will inject more dollar into economy the we will see dollar inflation ... Election is coming so ... politician will do crazy suff to please and keep citizen happy ...

When is the best time to hit sell button .... when real good new emerge in the economy, the government start to raise interest rate ...

A thought before you hit your sell or short button, is selling equity and asset class holding for dollars really the best move at current cross road ?


For me any dollar rebound is a short opportunity and any dip in asset is a buy.

This week treasury auction will be different, this time equity and assest class will move up, dollar should be on weakness trend same as for the treasure bond
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What to expect this week ...

Well, Gold will establish 1100 - 1120 mark and Silver will Touch US$18.00..

Oil will Touch at least US$80.00 before this weekend. Althought there is significant weakness in Friday trading ..

Soft commoditity .... I suspect soft commodity just hit bottom in last week trading and should rally or rebound .. the world is not oversupply so I will not worry so much on the price.. will contines soft commoditiy ..

Still looking to short treasury .... maybe this week ...

I will extend commentary in the trading session.

Hope everyone trade will be grand this week ..