S&P is at final stage of the rally ... any bull from need to alert .. Commodities will be the next rally... you will be surprised

Today was signal turn very bearish for the market, which the bear will be in full swing in the first half trading session...

However, due to this bearish data it will hit dollar and bond more in the later trading session, there might be a swift rebound in the second trading session ...

=============

Gold, recalled 2 years when IMF first announce that they planned to sell there gold that news easily sent gold down by 10% in 3 - 4 session .... The weird thing today is when IMF is starting to sell Gold the Gold market hold UP very well .... hmmmm tricky huh...

When the stock rally end, soft comodittes like wheat corn cattle livestock , precious like gold and silver, will be the next big run ...

Dollar will on the devalue stage when compare to gold and slower rate of decline when compare to other currency ....

So many conflict news and signal ... what do we need to focus in this hostile environment.

First, you need to know what are you buy and why do you buy it.

Seconday, Compare what have happen in the past and compare with present environment... the important of this it that you need to identify the difference ... this is the import and will lay the foundation of the trend.

Third, Identify the new changes or future changes .... try to stick with the trend and you will be 80-90% correct ...

===============

Today data is very bearish, but should we be buying bond or dollar ... well there will be alot of supply from time to come so I think you will got your pieces sometime in the future.. so I am notgoing to be a bull on this one ..


Althought consumer confident is down but it did not take down the equity much as I think it would be .... stock still want to rally , so I think by end of today trading session the market, the S&P will be up.. stay tune for this

Still maintaining my long on S&P, will reduce position when opportunity araise or signal changes

=============

Oil is in bearish market since last week but it still hold out well @ 65, if this a real bear I think the oil will $60 by now..

Will still hold on to long hope will go as planned...


I don't jump a round trading cause I ended earnning notthing, I always plan my investment and pick my selection carefully... I alway fail when i jump my ship too early ...

Daily market is very massy nowsady got to becareful when handling it...

Hope every trade will grand today..

Trade war and Nikkei

Today, I have turn into full bull for Nikkei which I will buy be buying the nikkei future ...

The trade dispute between China and USA, will benefit Japan Greatly ...

Cheer everyone

Oil , Gold Sell off & Treasury rally - what is the hidden agenda

From Thursday - Friday there is a sell off in gold and most of the hard asset and equity ... Like have aniticpated however, the bear extend longer then I have predicted ...

So I try to think hard what is the reason behind the dollar strength , bond rally and Gold, silver and oil short term price depression.

I try to gather my idea and concluded this letter.


Why foreigner will buy less bond?
1) bond is now in huge bubble and this bubble will continue to grow due to poorer then expect economy recovery.

2)In the past, foreign willing to to extend support in US because US consumer is willing in consume product from foreign( Creditor country ) and willing to add more debt to consume ..For the past one Years this have change. e US consumer does not consume like they used, and their habit will change forever, not only they are unwilling to continue to add debt but they will become a saver which is good for the US long term economy look but bad not good if the government continue to have deficit ...

As US consumer spend lesser so the Creditor will get less dollar which will result in foreign inability buy while the Tresury is selling Bond like no tomorrow to finance the US trade deficit while the Fed keep printing press on to reflate the economy .. So this not bold well for the future auction and dollar ....


3) legendary investor like Jim Roger say that there will be world currency crisis, And I think it is beacuse of dollar pound sterling and possible the swiss franc in the distance future which I 100% percent agree with him .. no doubt about it ..

Conclude dollar will resume weakness and bond will fall in value ..

==================

Gold depression ?

I was quite surprise that gold did not hold up @ 1008 range which I believe it will hold .. Anyway ... I think there is a link with the bond run up and the gold sell off ...

Which I think someone is trying to sell bond @ high price and someone wanted to buy gold at low price .. And I believe this entity is Bric country ....

Now .. just read the news on the "China launches probe into imports of US chicken" this will not be a dollar as alot of Couintry will stand against USA on these protectionist policy .... and will not be good for US Dollar for week to come ...

After G-20 meeting, while this is not going to be dollar froendly, like I have being say in the past that the world economy structure is changing, alot of things will not be the same including dollar (USED to be store value ) and bond ( which is hype bubble mode) ...


I don't think this coincidence, but it is another well planned ..... Monday will be the turning for both bond and dollar to the down side ..

=============

Let talk about oil selling off ...

If you go back three - 4 month ago when oil start to rally Goldman sach predict that the oil will touch US$85.00 in the third - fourth quarter. Afew event did not turn out as planned , like driving season and hurrican and economy did not recovery come as planned and today goldman sach oil price to rise in future http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_3_MOLT/idUSTRE58O24S20090925 .. and Saudi Arabia say that the fair value for oil is US$75.00 http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093273068 .

and there is afew news which will support oil to news high, like iran test missle and the the acciddent in the oil refinaery...

Well ..... this is a new play on Monday .... so I still hold short term bullish on oil...

I have wrote in other blog, the problem in oil in short term is storage but not the commodities itself ... so why there is a huge selling off ... well someone would like to buy oil at cheaper price ...

==============

On Friday, I have buying alot of stuff and I have committed 95% of my fund ...

I have short treasury @ 102.52

Total in gold and silver is 45% of my fund

Buy mining stock GG @ 38.49 and HL @ 4.00
Silver @ 15.88
Gold @ 983

Oil @ average 66.45 ( 15% of the fund)
Long S&P @ average 1045 (10% of the fund)

Wheat and corn 25% of

Wheat
Decem contract @averge 459 ( 463 & 452)
March Contract @ average 482 ( 493 & 472)

Corn
@December average @ 330 ( 345 & 315)
@March average @ 346 ( 358 & 334)

==============
Market outlook for Gold, silver, oil stock, dollar , bond ...

Gold , silver, oil and mining stock will rebound on monday.

Dollar and bond will resume weakness starting next weeks ...

For stock, it is quite bearish signal in US stock but I think the dollar and bond weakness should outcome the bearish signal in equity ... so the stock will side way up for the time being ...

Hope everyone will have a good trade and best luck

P.S "Always take profit when you see one"















I have take a lot of long position on Friday ...

Bear market or bear Trap ? Load up time .. Short treasury...

From my reading Three day ago I anticipate a selling off since Tuesday and all asset class will be underpresure for the next few trading session...

I made a right to decision selling alot of my position since Tuesday and Wednesday as I anticipating sell off in the market Anyway today load up time...

This sell off just give an opportunity to enter long position in all asset class like silver @ lower position .... @ very bargain price ... @ 15.88, .oil not so sure so add only ... medium postion 65.50 and @ small position 66.3 and 69.02.. total 10% I invest more or gold and silver like 45% ...

Gold @ 983 ...

Long S@P @ small line cause to bull from here will have to be caution ... S&P Position @ 1051 , 1048 and 1045 and 1042 (bigger line here) 10%

Might be time to load mining stock .... I already pick some @ current low price

Recommending GG gain @ 38.49 which is the price brought this time ..


Anyway I quited load up today busy buying things at low price in my point of view.....

There is great shift in carried trade currency Yen and I think US dollar, pound sterling and swiss franc too ...will be replacing Yen as major carry trade currency soon ... the market will take time to adjust to this trade trend..

wheat and corn will be my long term investment ...

I have being reading news on the cattle slaugthering due to low price this will be a good be play soon ...

Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying .....


Short treasury @ 102.52

Hope everything will go according to my reading if not .... I will have to eat wheat and corn @_@

Time will telling if the S&Pis bear trap or bear Market .... if this is bear trap it will a good one ...

Any I still fate that there is room to move to new height just be patient ..

Risk will be rewarding .....

Good trade everyone ... will stop position in other blog ......

Treasury Sell like hot cake or it is a hoax? Gold and Government

Greeting everyone. it quite sometime since I update my blog which I must admit I was quite Lazy ...

Today I come across new on bloomberg subject " China Can’t Buy Enough Treasuries as Dollar Drop No Deterrent " This a hi-light from this new which caught my attention , which make me to think.. hey someone is trying to convince investor to buy the treasury.. First the dollar gain some ground, stock become underpressure ... if you take note of this timeline during the past treasury auction this has being always the case ...

The first hilight which I would to comment is "

China, the biggest foreign owner of Treasuries, added $24.1 billion in July after net sales of $25.1 billion in June, raising its stake in U.S. government debt 3.1 percent to $800.5 billion, Treasury data showed on Sept. 16. The country’s holdings have risen 10 percent this year, after a 52 percent gain in 2008 amid the surge in demand for the safety of U.S. government debt as global credit markets froze."

There one thing you have to take note ... the china is actually decrease the holding of treasury by 1 billion ...

US treasury has being selling almost trillion dollar to fund stimulus, and will be selling more trillion to fund the economy expension...

I have a feeling the QE might be extended, as the US will have to to spend more stimulus then orignally planned due to US consumer save more then spend and alot of bank and business in US economy will be underpressure for the next few quarter ...

Don't Short Gold this time, if you are comfortable to short based on history movement, always put a tight stop or covered when you see profit .

Be warn this is just begining of the new bull in Gold ...

A few big of central have being buying gold for the past five and will be adding aggressively in the furture to exchange dollar for gold and alot of central will follow suit due to dollar and treasury bubble ... Instant dollar will be carry trade currency like yen for time to come ...

This term is still new which I call "Dollar bubble"

For the past 20 years dollar have enjoy as world reserved currency and have being circulate in the world trade for the past, this circulation have increase in such a magnitude for the past five year.

20- 30 years The world is is accumluting the dollar as reserve which result giant pool of dollar and this reserve had began to unwind as the world try stimulus their economy and will use dollar and at the same will start to increase other country reserve and gold reserve to hedge again dollar devaluation in time to come. Fed unfortunately did not do much to save dollar and print more dollar to buy up treasury both direct and indirect way. This result in adding more dollar supply to the world while the the world demand for dollar is decreasing ...

Gold and commodities and asset will face some pressure for the next 3-4 trading session ..,, hold on tight this will get bumpy ...

Intra day - or short term trading is sutiable for this type market. Sell on trength buy on weakness.

Good Trade everyone

Silver going to US$22.00 Gold US$ 1300 ? Signal turning bearish for S & P.

since Thursday stock signal according to my reading is starting to turn bearish and I am changing my trading startegy to short term or quick style trading style...

I have started to turn my attention to commodities trading since last week , I am sensing a very strong signal is about to explode in commodities.

I have made Recommendation in Gold mine company Like GG on Thursday (other blog website) which made in strong rebound, I have some position in GG @ 39.50 and sell 30% of the holding to play short term trade but like I sold the 30% of the holding @ 40.00 too early ... Anyway the 70% is still bring in profit which I will hold on to GG for the time being untill further notice.

Crude oil is sending a mix signal on friday and it seem like the crude and stock is try to break away from each other trend, which I believe new trend for the crude and stock will established soon. I will still long Crude oil for the time I have add small position @ 69.10 on Friday which bring my average price up to US$68.3 from US$67.50 ... dollar inflation or devaluation will made commodities including precious metal and oil look good in mid - long term.

Wheat and corn, it a good time to buy/

On thursday I have add some position in wheat which the price of wheat exploded . I have put on commentary on wheat and corn on other blog

Updating trading status.

Long S&P @ 1041 8% of my port
Long oil @ average 68.10 15% of port
Long silver @ average 16.05 45% of port
Long GG @ 40.50 5% of port
Long Wheat and corn (10%) will add more if the price fall again

Wheat
Decem contract @averge 463
March Contract @ 493

Corn
@march 345
@december 358

Will cash out my S&P @ 1065

Short treasury @ 102.4

The stock market is in bullish sentiment so the S&P will be a upward momentum but I will start to reduce my position in the S&P and prepare to short market in the distant future..


I have not complete the commentary on gold and central government ... I try to complete soon..

Yestersday I force my cut my long position at 1000 ,Time to change strategy

Yestersday my investment model have quite burn in my portflio which it is time to replay back some of my huge profit since March .... Yestersday I was really frustrated as it wasn't my days all position was crush badly...


Anyway, I will still think this correction will be short life as the sell off is not due to worse world wide structural problem but is just a set back for correction..

Yestersday I have add medium S&P long @ 999 and some oil @ average 69.00, I will add more is the price fell below 68.00

I am also in FAS @ 70.00 and willm @ more if there is weakness in today weakness long target @ 65 and major position @ 60.00 but will see today momentum before making more move


For S&P, I think I will buy more @ 995 and all in @ 990 but will today momentum before making move....


Adding some sugar to proflio still new @ this just follow jim roger ...


Hope today your trade will be a great one