QE mania!! Where is all the Excess liquadity go?

Hi Guy,



With all the QE  and stimulus going worldwide.. where is the excess fund go?

Oil did not doing as well as it should, should it be quite bullish for oil with middle east problem hmm...!!! but oild still continuously in correcting mode , do not be surprise if it correct more to about 80... stay tune. 






It seem like the gold is getting stall big time... it is a bullish or bearish.

after analyst the situation it seem like the gold might need to rest another years.

there will be argument on this from the bull side. Gold it good when there is a system risk in US dollar but it seem like the crisis will be further delay.

Oil production is rising and oil and gas in US soil is adding value to the US dollar. which I see the strength of the dollar going forward.

This situation does not bode well for gold holder for a while to come.



Althought there is alot of liquidaity pump ito the market but people right be is more focus of tracking trade stock like future and EFT.

Which is not link to the individual stock or commodity it is just a follow trade . (i am referring to majority future and eft worldwide not only in USA)

Come to think carefully unlike in the past where excess liquidity have limited place to invest right now we have lot of investment vechicle to absorb the excess liquditiy.

The reboom of US housing market, will be another strong force behind the foreseenable future . which the cycle is already start to spin.

US economy is looking good going forward. so i see lower risk in holding us asset.

 ==============

Trading outlook.

Oil short on strength
Gold short on strength

Stock should be in correction mode but it seem like there is still alot of bear who waiting to take advantage of the correct  but Stay on short side of the trade is better ...

it will be a frustration bear market, so drink lot of kool aid and sleeping pill if you want to enter the short... be confident in the trade before take one, and waiting until the situation change into your favour.

Patient is the key to future and derivative success.


Cheer Guy

The Down Fall of Yen and Japan

Greeting !!!!

it is quite sometime.... blame this on my laziness ...

Alot of thing have being happen ...... EURO QE, JAPAN QE and EnglishQE and US infinite QE.

So we are living in reflation or de-leverge world?

 This issue i will focus on the down fall of Japanese Yen.. After Japanese economy will start to fall and i will bet it in deep trouble soon.

The strength of Yen is too strong for the Japan economy to grow.

 Japan is now facing both problem at home and exterior fact.
 - trade deficit looming due to higher import fuel bill
- production cost disadvantage
- High Yen value for too extend period of time
- Dangerously high budget deficit when compare to GDP
- The high saving rate which used to be golden egg of japan economy is dwindling
 - Aging population

All this point to downward trend of Yen. The fundamental of Yen is very distort from real economy which is not sustainable.

 I will cover more on the QE it is very intersting

 For now... short Yen as many as possible I think the the reward will be very high.

 Possible long term buy back target for Yen is 125 yen.

 Long gold in term on Yen ( wait for gold correction before taking this play) good luck with your trade

A thought of good employment report . If alien do invade earth what would they take, Gold or Dollar...thing to look out for.

Hi everyone ,

Hope everyone is well... it is quite time ...

This year i would like to start with theme"if Alien earth what would they take, gold or dollar?" I guess you guy knew the answer.

--- News Flash -----

There is a report that the alien is planning a massive invasion in europe and usa with their most advance technology and weapon for our gold . . .

------------------------


Anyway ... we are all caught by surprising strong job report and europe business confident strength which after a deep though and thinking , and then realised what do i missing to mistake calcalate about the rally...


Early last year Japan face tsunami which wipe out production base for lot of product, as the result of this , the manufacturing is moving to uneffect country like usa or europe, hundred of thousand worker immediatelt out of job in japan, i suspect this job is moving back to usa and europe, and finally flood in thailand which paralysis major manufacturing in thailand estimate 300 -400 thousand people out of job, these job is move out of thailand to find temperary place in europe and USA ..

so we see a unique situatyion where the strength in dollar does not effect the manufacturing job in USA or europe... so what the catch here.


From what i last check both Japan and Thailand which was effect by the natural diaster is gearing for a come back.

Like japan, with the yen and manufacturing is gearing up for the recovering and same for Thailand which I think the job data in USA for time to should get a bit weaker then anticipated

With Europe debt is far from over and china still refrain from huge stimulus for economy. I bet the best part is over.


Al thought I still make lose in my s&p short and I still gear more fund to massive short the s&p from here , this is one of the huge investment position I ever accumulate .

I add more comment later on cheer everyone