Gold and silver ... the short term faling knife ... possible world wide physical gold and silver liquidation

Hi Everyone ..

It is quite sometime since i wrote my last letter...


First i would like to said ouch!!! that hurts ... it is the first in many years that my gold and silver future got liquidated ....

I believe this will serious liquidation and the main target not only the future market and i think it will soon hit the physical market which should not bode well for gold and silver price going forward in short term about 3-4 month.

I think the gold price might hit Us$ 1300 - US$1350, before we hit the bottom for this run... and silver i think it is the same as gold but since the silver got mass liquidation twice this time, i think US22-23 shhould a nice target for long term accumulate.


Without expansion of QE3 , and worldwide inflation control target, i think we will be in short term deflationary pressure for the next quarter which , i believed there will a great sell off soon.

Don't buy anything yet, hold on to all short, thing will gettng more nasty from here on.


I think oil we will likely see US$65 - 70 which i look forward to to take the profit on my short for oil at this level.


For the gold and silver, this is the first time, i sold 60% of my phyiscal gold and silver in this rebound.. i should have seen this coming but it seem like got carry away by this rally... come to think about it, gold have a great run without any real correction, i think this time we will see a serious correction before the gold procceed with it don't look back kind of rally ....


For S&P, short on an rally, but you guy better don't get to carried away by the sell off, as i think 950 is a target which must take profit from any sell off. Now we see lot of commodities is going down in price, i think the company should have more profit due to cut reduce, mortage rate in historical low, price of commoditites decrease and dollar is raising in which should be bullish for stock in mid to long term. but in short it s be liquidation from the weak hand in regardless to the fundamental.


don't long any thing yet ..


Hope everyone have a great day and good luck in all your trade






The new high for gold

The falling knife and the next dead cat bound....

Hi everyone...

Thing is getting nasty nowsday...so let jump in.


For the past week it seem like the market is making new low every week but don't get carry away with the bearish sentiment cause market is getting complicated due to constant intervention. special toward the end of the month where alot of option future expired.

The data for the past two week is getting to spooky which look like we are heading to more problem ... QE ..... which in my book it is quantity error ....if QE did not born we will hit bottom by now... but quantity error will lead to more error and currency devalue...


world current status: overconsuming, overdebt and over print and finally over intervention which does not bode well to mid - long term. I have a feeling by end of 2012 there will be another crisis and will have serious impact to all of us so it is something to look out for.

China is show in sign of slowing down same as for india, I guess the mood of the market is not bode well,so the trend will continues to be bearish... but beware of intervention which obama and the Fed is showing sign of nervous...


For the economy to go forward, the soft commoditiy need to comedown, but the supply is a great issue due to bad weather so I did not see much price presuure going forward, Oil need to come down but the libya is causing serious supply issue in the world oil output, so a serious correction is in doubt in mid to long term but anything can happen in short term so be cautious.. Interest rate need to come down which I did not see that will happen at least in the next 3 month ... so after combine all this factor it is really difficult to put a bull flag.

China main problem will be water which had post a serious tread since begin of this years , but it is getting some relief for the past week due to rain.. at least the short - mid term is getting relief so I will give a small bull flag in here which should stimulate so manufacturing activity.. but raising commoditity price and oil is still posting tread here so I will put few bear flag here ... so is the interest rate ..

Japan is problem is the energy with the shifting of energy structure in Japan from nuclear to greener energy which natural gas is the most best alternative but in short term Japan will face energy problem due to shift in energy policy... the machinery order which come down and cause surprise but i guess it is due to nuclear crisis and will certain cause great delay in rebuilding plus uncerttianty in power supply this should come in no surprise for the machinery order fell in japan ....

Trading strategy : -

Stock Market Bearish ... be cautious when appoarching end of the month... I am suspecting a short squeeze ... so it is wise to take profit of 30-40 % from your short position one week before the end of the month and short on strength onmce the short squeeze is done.

Precious Metal . Long term, bullish but anything can happen in short term.. from the silver chart , I can see the 200 days moving average is creeping up ... so I think there is a great chance the silver will make more correction toward 33-34 ... so I might be a bit fast hand when eneter the position but I am long term bullish so I guess there will be some short term pain in my precious metal position ...

As for oil, if by this Wednesday the price do not breach US$96, I will start to add long position to oil..

For bond ... the price is getting nice to short, but patient always win... i will be a bit patientbefore going to short .


I will extend my commentary later on..

God be with you everyone..

The Money Game!

hi everyone,

It seem like the blogger having problem which i have problem updating the blog.

The precious metal market is setting in a bearish trend, but one thing to take note this time is the silver is holding up well while the gold is still in correction.

I have think the silver might be in consolidating mode due to on going bearish sentiment in the market.


It is hard to tell when the correction will end .. what we can do is be patient for the right timing to enter this long term bull market.

I think we can use the dollar index and gold price as indication , I am looking for the gold price to correct to 1400 - 1420 range while the silver is in consolidation mode.

Now there is alot of sideline money waiting to enter gold and silver market especially those who missed the rally. so not sure how deep the big boy going to play this market.

My outlook is that like the silver price will be in consolidation mode at around US$ 28 - US$30.00 there might be a long liquidating toward 25 - 28 area but it just money game to squeeze out the short .while the gold will be in correcting mode, this is to give conflict signal to the bull and at same time use this opportunity to cover short in silver.

For the dollar index made a surprise move which i hit the right timing to sell my EURO bet ... as for the dollar.

I think it will move to 76-77 range to squeeze out all the short.. before consolidation to toward downward trend.

The bearish trend is starting to build up in gold and silver with the strength of dollar (which is no reason to be bullish about) the next great move in dollar will be the raise debt ceiling. which should spark a sharp rally in precious metal.
Everyone should pay very close attention to this event.

The best way to play silver market is to accumulate physical silver on dip cause physical is where the big boy cannot force you into liquidation like paper silver.

Never act smart by over leverage in future market, long term play in physical gold and silver will be a better play.
And most importantly it is better to hold physical metal instead paying ETF.

there is a reason to create a panic selling at this point when the Fed is speculate to unwind QE2 end of june so by the time, alot of people will call for further gold correction but i think before that happen the gold and silver might already prepare to rally again.. so sound as tricky as it is.

As for Oil, I think the demand is there and we are going to depend on oil more then due to nuclear crisis. This is long term outlook.

For next week, I see a great chance of relief rally in commodities before another sell off.. so we will be run in the trading range style for the next few session same as for precious metal.

So my trading will short style down = buy , up = sell..

Last Thursday, I manage to buy oil at 93.5 and silver at 33.2 start closing long position next week.

as for the s&p , i will play short on strength from here onward...



hope everyone goodluck and have a good trade

Invitation blog.

Hi everyone,

I going to turn this blog to invitation blog only.

Which would like to know how many people is viewing my blog... hope to see show of hand by post comment in my blog.

If you are unable to view in the distant future, please send an email to abzeno@gmail.com

Take care and hope to see your comment soon.

Bye for now.

What will happen if US Dollar Fail or Devalue Greatly? .... Let put on the debate ..

Hi everyone,

It quite sometime now and I hope everyone is well...


As everyone know I am long term bear in Dollar and bond, bullish on precious metal gold and especially silver and emerging market.

So today i would like to come out with a topic " What will happen when dollar devalue or Fail?

This what I think in general.

in stock S&P prospective apparently we are seeing a rally but deep under the market is under correction in term of EURO. this idea is abit extreme but if take Euro back in 2007 and value in S&P back then, You will get what i mean.

So why I am close my short, I believe the dollar is in free fall for now, which is something bigger picture then stock valuation. As long as dollar keep falling the other asset will keep inflated. So it is going to be quit bullish going forward in "very" short term.

As For Gold and silver , a correction is imminent but i suspect that it will not happen soon due to skeptic in the rally like what is happening to me .. alot of people is still waiting in the sideline waiting to buy on dip while the short keep short covering... Something big is coming and it will come sooner then expected....

So i will wait for a dip first before adding to the future.

For Dollar , bond and deficit ..

I having being following the news around the world and it seem like the world keep blaming china for manipulation in the currency

Now it seem like the US is not going to be responsible for the debt and the dollar printing, they is care little for the creditor while keep pumping dollar into world economy , support unemplyment benefit, lower tax for the rich, world wide military invention and politics invention.

So now all the creditor is to be blame for the mass.. to be fair ... the US debt situation is getting out of hand and the problem will have great impact on global scale.

So phyical gold and silver will be your ultimate hedge against this uncertainty. Like i mention above the short covering rally have push the price to all time and it seem like there nothing to stop the rally.

But one thing for sure that a correction is imminent along in the rally, there is also sideline money which waiting anxiety to enter the market so might a higher price but how high the market will go before correction this is the most tricky part, i think as soon as the short have complete flash out and the dollar hit 69.5 or a bit lower then the correct will ignite. we might see a correct toward US$38-US40 but this is my opinion it might not happen.

One interesting move for the past week is the dollar index make new low but the gold and silver is pity stable so it is a bit fishy here.

I am hold back in my precious metal future investment for a while , no matter how high it go, from my experience never chase a bull or a bear market no matter how bullish or bearish you are cause you might be trap in your investment especially in future, and will cause you very misery and you will be induce to make bad decision. As bad decision is alway being make during depress mood.. so it is better to make invest when you have a clear mind.

The important of investment is to make money and stay happy, and not lose money and sad.


I will post my precious metal position once i have made my investment.

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As for oil,

After the nuclear incident in Japan, Japan have problem in keep up with the power supply, and oil is an quick fix to the situation so i think oil will find a lot of support going forward.

The oil market is very strong and it is getting strong as day go by. Coonsumption is raise at rapid in ermerging market , I think we will see oil at 120 -125 nymex soon. Should used any dip as another opportunity add position.

I think we will see another correction at 112 -113 area, so i will cross my finger and wait target correction is 103-106 area.

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As for stock,


The dollar devaluation will be supportive to the stock market for now but that does not mean we should bullish on stock. Inflation with high oil which will creating a lot problem for consumer going forward.

This cost raise will have great problem for company to raise in this unpredictable situation, so i guess the earning for a lot of company is peeking and the bull going forward should not be big move to the upside.

When the stock will correct, i think need to focus on dollar index for the clue here, i suspect the dollar index will fall to 69.5 or lower, if the situation occur, i think it is almost time to short the stock market cause there will be panick in dollar once it breach 70.8

Which the dollar index rebound we will see some serious correct a cross board so for precious metal and stock, so i will brace for this scenario to occur.

Will add most commentary later.

Have a nice day every 1

WARNING!! Inflation .... Get Ready for the big show down.

Hi Everyone.

I am now on traveling in Chiang Rai to one of the most poor village and writing from the one of the rural part of Thailand.
Internet access is very difficult. I have to travel at least 5 km to find the nearest mobile phone receiption which lucky come with Edge internet connecttion..

So the real inflation is starting to kick into the world and further chaos start to develop in the world market.

When i travel to rural part, I heard the villager around talking about bad government which result high food cost. It seem like political game and rumour spreading in rural which create discontent the rural or the low income with the government. I think the trend already start to develop world.

So to prevent the chaos, a lot government will start to pump in more fund to keep up the inflation which will lead higher inflation.


Anyway, the end result will be the crash of the stock market world wide which i preparing to short market big time.

If the US economy GDP growth by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, we got to be very worried cause the real inflation growth in US in the forth quarter should be no less then 4% so in real term we got negative growth in real gowth in the economy.

With inflation is in hot pursue, I am not going to be a bull in the stock market. Bull commodities will a better bet from here on.


So the Gold is close to all time high SILVER MAKE THE ALL TIME HIGH. It this the end of the precious bull market? Hardlly and I think the silver might touch US$40.00 before going into side way mode or correction.


Precious metal:

Dude to droping of silver - gold ratio, there is a great chance that at some point in the furture, the gold will start to out perform silver, but now the silver will be the start of the stage.


Silver Target will be US$40-US$42

Gold target will US$1520

These two target should be a good place to take your profit in my opinion.

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Oil.

After a small pull back at US$101.00 which is the place i take 90% of my profit but did not post on re-position at 95 - 96 area but anyway...

With so many uncertainty in middle east, the oil might be raise to US$110 - 112. nymex.

And i hope the oil will not touch US$125, if this the case, the world will be in deep trouble, with raise food and oil, I think the consumer will be strong enough to handling both at the same time.

So the bull in equitie should move very cautiously from here.


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Soft commoditites

With the stockpile at record low, price should easily hit all time high..Food security will be government top priority which will bode well for the soft commoditites price OG make a great call which I managment to make big position in soyabean at 1310, before the rally begin...

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Stock ..


I will be recommending to find a good position to short the market, which i think S&P 1330 - 1340 should a good short position then 1350-1360 and all in if the index at US$1380 on ward.


Short this market should be in cautious way, be prepare margin for any short squeeze cause there will distraction to mislead you.

Ok hope everyone have a great trading and will try to up my comment when ever i have a chance.