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Friday, May 13, 2011

The Money Game!

hi everyone,

It seem like the blogger having problem which i have problem updating the blog.

The precious metal market is setting in a bearish trend, but one thing to take note this time is the silver is holding up well while the gold is still in correction.

I have think the silver might be in consolidating mode due to on going bearish sentiment in the market.


It is hard to tell when the correction will end .. what we can do is be patient for the right timing to enter this long term bull market.

I think we can use the dollar index and gold price as indication , I am looking for the gold price to correct to 1400 - 1420 range while the silver is in consolidation mode.

Now there is alot of sideline money waiting to enter gold and silver market especially those who missed the rally. so not sure how deep the big boy going to play this market.

My outlook is that like the silver price will be in consolidation mode at around US$ 28 - US$30.00 there might be a long liquidating toward 25 - 28 area but it just money game to squeeze out the short .while the gold will be in correcting mode, this is to give conflict signal to the bull and at same time use this opportunity to cover short in silver.

For the dollar index made a surprise move which i hit the right timing to sell my EURO bet ... as for the dollar.

I think it will move to 76-77 range to squeeze out all the short.. before consolidation to toward downward trend.

The bearish trend is starting to build up in gold and silver with the strength of dollar (which is no reason to be bullish about) the next great move in dollar will be the raise debt ceiling. which should spark a sharp rally in precious metal.
Everyone should pay very close attention to this event.

The best way to play silver market is to accumulate physical silver on dip cause physical is where the big boy cannot force you into liquidation like paper silver.

Never act smart by over leverage in future market, long term play in physical gold and silver will be a better play.
And most importantly it is better to hold physical metal instead paying ETF.

there is a reason to create a panic selling at this point when the Fed is speculate to unwind QE2 end of june so by the time, alot of people will call for further gold correction but i think before that happen the gold and silver might already prepare to rally again.. so sound as tricky as it is.

As for Oil, I think the demand is there and we are going to depend on oil more then due to nuclear crisis. This is long term outlook.

For next week, I see a great chance of relief rally in commodities before another sell off.. so we will be run in the trading range style for the next few session same as for precious metal.

So my trading will short style down = buy , up = sell..

Last Thursday, I manage to buy oil at 93.5 and silver at 33.2 start closing long position next week.

as for the s&p , i will play short on strength from here onward...



hope everyone goodluck and have a good trade

98 comments:

  1. Preditor, thanks for your update! I wonder if Silver will reach $40 next week. It is very volatile! How low do you think SnP can reach?

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  2. OG said...

    Hi there...looks like there were some comments here earlier that got deleted due to a problem with blogspot. Anyways, I'm seeing a shift in the markets as well. Looks like the dollar has made a bottom and is about to turn higher, putting pressure on commodities. I've initiated a short in Wheat from 800, adding some more on the way down. I missed the euro short (good job on that one pred) and I think that there might be other currency short plays that are good. I want to short Euro but not sure if I should initiate here at 1.41, or wait for retrace. Tough call. However, Aussie looks better short to me. It ran straight up to 1.10 and now has fallen to 1.06. I have a target of .89 (the September 2010 break low). What do you guys think, any other suggestions for dollar bull plays at this moment? On the other hand, I agree that gold and silver are down for a while. Could be several months before it looks good to buy, we will see. But I do not think gold will go below 1400. I'm of the belief that we will have a chance to buy it again between 1400-1430 or so which will be a great opportunity. Hard to say when, but my guess would be end of summer. Thus, my theory is that commodities will fall into the summer, bottom, and once again rise into year end. Anyone care to clarify these thoughts? Pred, what do you think?
    May 14, 2011 8:43 AM

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  3. OG said...

    I had a quick follow up. It seems like the euro fell so fast from 1.49 to 1.41 where it is now. My feeling is that we might get some retrace; the liquidity party of Bernanke might not be over so suddenly...we could well have a few more weeks of it! How does a euro short at 1.45 sound? I'm feeling pretty good about this idea and the chance it will get there.
    May 14, 2011 9:15 AM

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  4. Hi Og and Aseng,

    the volatile is to expect when the short term trend is changing which will act a good trap for both bull and bear especailly in the future market...

    From this point on ward , everyone need to becareful, do not over agreedy, it is better to earn a few less buck then to be greedy for a few more buck.

    From what I see, anything which move in one direction at a fast track, it is liquidating and not trend. So it is not sustainable over the mid to long term. Once the liqudating is complete then trend will re establish ... Like the dollar and gold, So it is money game.

    For S&P, I thjink it is possible to see correction of 15-20% from top so it should be about 1100-1150.

    For precious metal, the bearish sentiment is now establish so it will represent a new buying opportunity.

    For precious metal. gold will still be in correction mode while the silver should be in consolidating at around US$ 28 - 32 range.. which I have crystal ball to give a more closer range. haha

    It will be a slow dip to the down side with some bear raid due to too many investment are on the short so the strategy should be range trade to the down side.

    For the dollar, if you short euro then it is wise to take profit at 1.38 - 1.40 range cause I think the dollar strength is not a very long term trend .

    the QE2 is ending but , beware of the debt ceiling raise event.. so it is kind of tricky.

    ======

    Short term outlook.

    S&P should make some rebound next week to about 1342 - 1348 area

    same as for oil and precious metal.

    If you are fear to buy on dip then try to short from strength.

    cheer every one

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  5. hi Everyone,

    just want to know if Shirley,alan, Chris, CBS, Daniel, Andrea, Bob,OG still visit my blog and anyone who is visit I really hope to hear from all of you just check once in a while.

    Thanx..

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  6. Hi Preditor, thanks. I will look to use the SnP rebound opportunity next week to unload, and keep cash. Thanks for your update! Aseng

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  7. Hi Pred

    Yes I`m here I sent you an e-mail some days ago.

    I agree with Aseng, this days Y think cash is king.

    Cheers

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  8. Hey man, i still sneak a peek from time to time. Though we don't always agree, I still think your a market wizard. Historically Interesting times lay ahead and we all have front row seats to the show. Very exciting! Good luck and good trading.

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  9. Hi Preditor,

    I usu read your blog each day. Thanks for your thoughts on gold and silver.

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  10. Hi every one,


    Good to see all your comment.

    Yestersday was a bang down day..

    Silver is trying to make a new low , so the target $ 28-32 should realized.

    For oil it is let see if we will see a rebound today to $99 or above , i am looking for 102-104 to close my long but if today don't happen . I will take the profit of table

    Let see how thing going today

    Hi Chris,

    Disagreement is good and look forward to know your point of view.
    Each view will sharpen our brain and idea..

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  11. Hi Predictor, I read the blog often but don't always have much to add. Just checking in....i'm basically short here.

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  12. hi everyone,

    check this out http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/17/chinas-energy-crisis/

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  13. Hi greg and everyone,


    The weather is getting crazy and agriculture comoditity will surely get hit for time to come.

    Which i think shorting the soft commoditity should not be a good idea.

    So I think it is not a bad idea to start accunulate on the dip...

    Silver is holding up very well...

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  14. Are you in favor of buying the grains on dip? I was listening to this money manager who said that they will go down with everything else like the s and p this summer. Regardless of the weather and so on.

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  15. Hi Greg,

    The grain supply is still at not very well secure and it seem this Year the weather will more crazy then last years so it will not be wise to short something which is not certain .

    Look at the soya bean it is holding up very well it us well bid at 1320 area.. Which do not look like correction but look like long term accumulate .

    I think it is better to used this dip to add no to the long side, but be patient right timing . Always use a sell off to accumulate

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  16. The oil is ready for the next march...

    So this time my target is 105 like see how the market will work out today.

    The silver price have somehow start to stablized at 32 - 34 with well bid around this area

    If this area is not breach by this weekend, i guess the silver correction should be already done.

    I have also request delivery of silver @ 33..

    Let see how the market , should be an interesting day...

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  17. Don't put any short in silver or gold, only accumulate on dip, it is the best to protect yourself.

    The world is full problem and one of most problematic will be the currency crisis.

    So eventually the gold and silver wil be your ultimate hedge , don't forget to buy physical metal for your real protection.

    Although the dollar is gaining strength in short term don't buy at this price, but look to short the dollar on strength..

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  18. I see that you guys mostly look for bigger trades. I like trades that move at least 100 points or more in futures. That said, i'm waiting to enter S & P from a little higher for a short play. Looking for 10% on the down side. The bounce in oil and metals you might get this week is temporary, right? Good trades to all.

    -Seth

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  19. Hmm yeah I guess the grains are not looking so hot as a short as I had thought before. Pred, looks like you have a target from S and P, about 1340 - 1150 (or so). I hope that plays out!

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  20. Hi Seth and og,

    I am mid - long term investor and short speculator on some occasion so it will adjust my investment according to the situation.

    For metal I think we are almost done with the correction . As for oil it will I am on short term play(speculation)

    Fir s n p will short from strength

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  21. Nice, please advise as to when you buy metals if you would. Its food for thought for me. I'll let you know when I short S and P...

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  22. hi Og,

    I have start taking long position in silver last thursday, about 40% of my silver fund.

    And look forward to accumulate more once the trend is establised.

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  23. I'm wondering how you think the S & P can go down, while commodities go up. They have been moving in tandem for the most part. How do you resolve this conflict? Do you think the relationship ends, with metals up and stocks down?

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  24. Hi Seth,

    The commodity and stock tend to move in same direction but there is different between both of them. Stock is about profit and potential earning and company valuation but soft commodity is greatly depend on demand and supply. If the supply is having problem or facing potential supply disruption then the price will go up which will have negative effect on stock due to raising cost. But if there is no supply problem , both of them should be moving on the same trend.

    While metal will be link greatly to currency especially dollar. If there is more risk to value of dollar in long run then metal will benefit fro
    The devalue of currency... Etc...

    There more thing which will have impact on gild and silver like interest rate etc

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  25. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704904604576332883930405192.html

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  26. Thank you for posting your trades. If you can post them in real-time I think it would really benefit the blog. I will try to do the same. On another note, looks like the S and P is grinding higher right now. I'm looking to re-enter the silver trade at some point, not really sure where but 33 looks like a good number.

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  27. Mr. Predictor, are you still long oil here? Looks like a decent setup for that move back to 105. I read that wsj article you posted about oil supply issues. I'm pretty sure the Saudis are not going to increase output. They are angry at the US for causing these revolutions around them and it makes them nervous. Restricting oil supply is their only weapon, plus they can finance the new handouts (concessions) they have their public in order to calm things down.

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  28. I agree with Greg. If we all post our trades in real time, as well as exit points this blog could take off and grow. I'm still waiting to initiate some shorts in stocks. I agree with OG about oil..I initiated a small position today at the low near 99. Same target of 104-105 or so. I'm from the UK btw.

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  29. Hey Seth & others - It appears to me that the market could reach the recent high of 1375 if it can break convincingly through 1350. That would be a nice place to short if it can get there. On a technical level, there is a bull flag formed and market leaders are performing well. Is the market consolidating for another (brief) push higher before possibly correcting more. If you think about it, those recent highs are only 30 points away. Markets been consolidating for the recent time between 1320-1350 waiting for the next break either up or down...

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  30. Hi Everyone.

    Posting real time , it not wise move especially when come to future market due to high yield return.. and it is a dangerous as my investment is quite high in value post realtime position in open like my blog .

    What I can do it post nice target and timing to accumulate, decision will be your to take the risk suit your need.

    -----


    Greg,

    for SnP, i don't think will gp that far, but I think 1348 - 52 should be a nice place to squeeze the short so .... the bearish so it will be wise to short from strength.

    --------

    Og.

    With the unrest in middel and war in Libyan show no sigh of abate, plus nulcear crisis in Japan, china power shortage this will only lead to higher oil price...

    but for short term play US$105 - 108 should be a nice target to take my profit .

    for Silver if you don't mind a few buck , 34 shou;ld be a nice and accumulate more on depress.

    Good trade everyone

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  31. The gold go wild...

    Loading up silver now..

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  32. Yeah Predictor I agree - its too hard to post them that quickly, but we can only try to use entry points and targets as a reference. I initiated silver (small position) on the lows of the day at 34.30. Also added to my oil at 97 after getting stopped out this morning. This is all I have open. Still waiting for entry point to short S & P. We shall see if I get it around 1350..

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  33. I actually went long S & P near the lows with a target of the recent highs. Lets see if this pans out. I'm bearish on stocks when QE2 is very close to ending; we still have 6 weeks...

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  34. Bought some copper today for a short term swing. nothing serious, but the chart is looking resilient..

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  35. Food for thought - here is what Mad Hedge Fund trader says today in his letter about oil. Is this scenario unlikely in the next few months (even though oil may rise short term). Is his idea to short oil pretty nuts? He has a mixed track record but is often right too. Opinions are welcome:


    3) The Bear Case for Oil.

    Let’s do some out of the box thinking here. Let’s say that the global economy is really slowing down. The demand for oil will fall. Let’s say that China continues to raise interest rates, slowing its economy further. Then Chinese oil demand starts to wane.

    Then we bring on stream new US onshore supplies opened up by advanced technologies in places like the Bakken field in North Dakota. Then current high prices at the pump deliver a summer driving season that is a shadow of its former self. Next, the exchanges get religion and decide to damp down speculation in earnest by raising margin requirements on oil.

    Now, let’s thrown in an outlier. Muammar Khadafi chokes to death on a bad falafel, bringing the Libyan civil war to an immediate end, and unleashing 1.2 million barrels a day of light crude on the European market.

    What I have just outlined here is a perfect storm for oil prices. It’s not that these are low probability events. They are in fact the most likely scenario that will unfold over the next three months. And they are all likely to hit at the same time, taking crude down to the bottom of the last year’s range of $84/barrel.

    So I think that it is prudent here to start adding some short exposure for oil. Selling short the US Oil Fund (USO) might be a good idea, which has one of the worst tracking errors in the ETF world, and never fails to rob investors blind. Play this from the short side, and these gross inefficiencies work in your favor. When I employed this strategy through the put options in March, I scored a near double in just five days.

    Just to add a little kicker to your short oil play, you might buy the (DUG), a -2X inverse short ETF on the oil majors now trading at $29.25. Falling oil prices will lead to plunging oil company profitability, shrinking PE multiples, and sharply declining stock prices, all of which work in favor of (DUG). Throw in a broader global risk off trade, and this thing works with a turbocharger.

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  36. Hi og,

    He fail to analysis the nuclear crisis. second the Liyan oil production is greatly demaged which it will take a while for the 100% production at least 3-6 month after peace establish.

    Cheap oil is getting less while the dollar is getting weaker.

    Oil is mid to long term bearish soon we will get used to US$100.00 oil price.

    Don't forget dollar value have drop more then 15% before the crisis unfold when oil touch US$145.

    If you used the dollar devalue precentage to minus the current price of at US$96.00 which will result oil @US$82.00...

    Once thing to note oil will not go up 1 straight. so correction will be along the way.

    Any way I think he scenario will be achieve in short term but I am quite bullish in mid - - long term propective.

    =======

    Silver lag behind gold today while gold advance with dollar ...

    =======

    Keep pile short in S&P on any rebound.

    Thing is getting shaky.

    =======

    If oil don't breach 102 by next week , i will sell my long .




    Cheer every one

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  37. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/05/20/bloomberg1376-LLGXWU0UQVI901-7MKUKCM9B0J88R28ROLAAHOIS9.DTL

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  38. I'm buying some gold today at the Comex open. Silver looked tentative friday so im not sure what to make of that. Maybe it will follw gold up?

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  39. Strange price action in oil today. Not sure what to make of that, but still holding my long.

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  40. Anyone else on here making any moves today? I actually got stopped out of copper. Btw, seems like there are smart traders on this board. @OG, yeah gold looks solid to me too. @Pred, nice one with your S & P short!

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  41. I'm sort of new to this. Do you guys trade the futures or stocks?

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  42. dumped my silver/gold/oil. I'm bear now, at least for short term into end of June. I shorted S & P today (wish I got it higher but oh well), went long 30 year treasury, and have order to short wheat for tomorrow.

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  43. Hi everyone,

    The market is indeed in bearish mode , however, the market will still be on range trade to the downside.

    I have close my short in S&Pin yesterday session and look to add more short from strength.


    For oil, I think 105 is possible however, will take start take profit on this rebound .

    For Gold and silver Silver, which move in term of Dollar , which kind of weird but anything could happen.

    I am more bullish on precious metal then dollar so i feel more secure in holding metal in long term then dollar ..

    I think the silver is now in consolidation which i expect a nice rally soon.

    hold tight for now ... let see how thing going from here ..

    Looking for to go long in euro, I think of 1.28 - 1.30 area ... look see how thing move..

    Patient always win out ..

    Now playing future, never short in depress market always short from strength. long from depress market ...

    The market will not be a one way move ... so be careful ..

    Today should be an interesting day

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  44. Hi Pedro

    I am trade more to the commodities future and s&P index trader.

    I do buy stock, but do not post so much on the blog.

    I usually post oil and precious metal and S&P index in this blog.

    Nice meeting you here...

    Chat later

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  45. I closed my short in s and p. Waiting for some strength too. So pred, you said before that you thought euro would not fall below 138. Is your new target 128 or so? What is your new short zone for s and p? Im thinking 1330

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  46. Hi og ...

    The market will need to squeeze the short so I guess the few session should rebounding ..


    My target is about 1330- 1340.00.

    Let see how market go..

    good trade every one

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  47. Thank you senor preditor. Nice to meet you too, nice blog! I went through some old posts too. Where are you looking to sell your oil? I'm thinking of shorting it soon with puts.

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  48. Hi everyone.

    Be patient for while longer... don't short anything...

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  49. hi og,

    I think make some error in typing target is 1.30 - 1.38

    I will make closer target once i see thing more clearly

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  50. Good deal, fellas. I moved to cash for now and i'm waiting to pile on some shorts. I changed my timeframe, because even though QE2 is ending in weeks, the hot money is about to leave the system before that. The 600 billion that went in will be moving out and into bonds too. I might buy some 30 year US treasury on any pullback. Right now its at 125 or so. Maybe when the market hits that 1330-1340 area would be a good time to give this a try along with shorting the S and P.

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  51. Looks like things are unfolding to your plan. I saw that overnight the ES futures fell to 1305 before rebounding nicely. We could get an end of month upswing to short into later! The gold and the silver doing well.

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  52. Here are my orders set for profit (and yes, I had bought these for quick trades). Always can adjust this of course -

    Oil - 103.75, Gold - 1338, and Silver 38.85

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  53. Any other targets on this little run? I have orders to short the S and P at 1337 (descending trendline), with a stop around 1347. Lets see if this unfolds my way. Pred, nice call on this small commodity rally. I heard some people say that they want to be out of these trades by the end of the month, since money managers are simply doing some end of the month "window dressing." I wonder how close silver can get to 40.

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  54. Hi everyone,

    OG,

    For S&P, if it is in a down trend. it better to hold your breath instead of putting the stop. if you short at 1337, then do it at 30% of budget, if there is a squeeze hold on to the short term lost and add more short on strength.

    For silver , if the silver US$40.00 is breach then I think the silver will try to consoldiate at 38 - 40 range

    For oil.US$107 - 110 should be a nice target.. but I ready to ran at any time and any price if i see fit .. so, good luck everyone..

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  55. OG,

    one more thing, if you are not confidence in your position it is wise you don't the position and wait for a clearer trend ...

    Good trade everyone ..

    Finally I could have peace of mind sleep .... it is a depress market ... every move is spooky ...

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  56. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/well-was-quick-goldman-goes-long-crude-raises-12-month-brent-forecast-130bbl

    Did you see this? They have a short term target of 108.

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  57. Hi seth,

    My investment is in safe zone, so i will seat back and enjoy this short term ride.

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  58. Hi everyone,

    For oil , I think i will start taking my profit from here onward...



    For s&p thing will not be so rosy, will start to place some short from here onward....

    Cheer every 1

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  59. Nice Predictor. Based on today's action I closed all longs....oil couldn't really get above 101.50 which is what I was watching. You are right, the S and P looks ready to roll over. Lets see how it goes.

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  60. Looks like silver ran into some pretty serious resistance at 38.50. Are you gonna hold your long and sit back? Looks shaky here...

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  61. Hi og,


    I will keep my silver position and will add if it dip further .

    Good trade every one

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  62. Hey guys, dollar is getting ready for next leg down add to your gold and silver position, leveraged positioning would be best. Ease into your longs and hold on tight for some time. Good trading.

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  63. So Chris, you think the S and P moves higher than 1340? Its highly correlated to the dollar right now. A lot of people are talking about a turbulent June. I'm not sure what will happen, but I think we are looking at a sharp move in June. The question for me is whether risk is positioned in such a fashion because it is end of month and money managers want to show some longs on their client statements. Or, whether commodities in general are about to rally, which coincides with Goldman's call (to a degree)

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  64. Buying some copper here for a short term trade. Half position at 4.11

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  65. just my own personal opinion, everything from this point on has there eyes on the 800lb gorrilla in the room.... QE3. Goldman call is where there is an appetite demand for the actual commoditiy being the users and not for the trader, therefore commodities will stop going down. This will especially ring true with the earth changes that are taking place. Think about it..we have had disaster after disaster. And its only going to get worse. The japan earthquake, middle east woes(high energy prices), along with asian growth. This means higher commodity prices.

    Now back to S & P I believe due to anemic GDP report, that this will be a sign of things to come, QE3 is on the table and that means weak dollar and higher commodity prices. S&P could go to 2000 and will if QE3 happens. The only safe play in my opinion if we are talking about medium term plays are the precious metals. therefore i believe most of the smart money managers are currently positioning themselves into precious metals. Trust me, we havent seen anything yet. Inflation hasn't been a huge factor yet because velocity has been slow. Lower credit scores for houses, cars, furniture, applicances etc are now being accepted. Banks seem to be loosening credit barriers due to anemic economic growth and this will ignite inflation problem.

    So OG, What is your take on stocks and commodity price action?

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  66. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/us-dollar-running-into-some-selling.html

    Hey Chris, check out Trader Dan's Wednesday comments. They are pretty much in line with what you were saying. I believe that the Fed will continue to weaken the dollar which puts 'risk on' back on. I changed my mind once again early this week and am long gold, silver and a bit of copper. But sometime in June I'll take a careful look at shorting the market with the understanding that it may well test the previous high of 1370. I don't want to get burned shorting a bull market, but the Euro could weaken down to 1.30 this summer at some point which equals a stock correction. So this is my basic roadmap. I have more conviction being long in June but will be watching how the market views Europe and the U.S economic data in deciding whether I have the balls to short this thing.

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. Hi everyone,

    First soft commodity, will be on the uptrend but for stock i don't 2000 is possible due to I expected the on going problem for soft commodity which will strengthen further down road, it is quite complicated issue as high commoditity
    Price will surely put more pressure to the consumer and at the same time pressure to stock price. Even with qe 3 into the equation I due it will have much impact to the market go back to qe 1 the market raise from 760 to 1200. Then the market correction. From then the market rebound toward 1200 with qe 2 help. So I am not sure how much qe3 will not push the stock much this time but instead I think it will push more inflation then stock should give stock much boost from here.

    Further more I think the interest rate will raise more so it should not be good for business and consumer.

    Oil is holding up well , I took some profit off the table yestersday and sell more of the position on the strength.

    For precious metal I am on the same boat with Chris.

    We are living in complicated world.

    Qe1 (low interest rate world) mega boost stock world wide .
    Qe2 ( interest rate tick higher and push inflation higher) give stock smaller push)

    For the qe 3,

    The effect will be different from qe 1 and qe2.

    The world is full of weather problem which will sure cost huge increase food and soft commodity . So soft commodity will make new high for time to come.

    Which will result further increase interest rate world wide.

    All this effect will dampen economy grow even qe3 going to take effect.

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  69. What are you guys' 1 month targets on gold and silver, bu end of June? I would say 40 and 1560. Just a guess of course. Pred, what do you think? By the way, my year end target (or at least high for) gold is 1700. I think it can reach there, then 2000 by end of 2012.

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  70. My copper is doing well for now. I'm gonna hang on for a bit. I think it'll trade in the same direction as gold, silver and oil for a bit.

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  71. Looking for 1600 in gold sometime in June. resistance at 1550 though. As for ES, could get choppy but will melt up at some point. Looking for more correction there later in the summer.

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  72. Hi everyone,

    The hurricance is appoaching , this might be another bull for oil .


    have a great weekend

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  73. Looks like oil is moving up. The US government just voted to keep the debt ceiling limits intact at least temporarily, and it looks like precious metals are consolidating here for a minute. I think that gold and silver will begin to move higher again soon. I'm looking to buy any dip in silver towards 37.50..

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  74. Any thoughts on today's selloff? Looks like gold caught a bid which is weird. But oil silver and stocks fell. Could be a bearish sign for risk.

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  75. Hi greg.im still holding some longs but a little nervous right now. Im trading with tight stops..gold and oil. Let's see what happens. Apparently there has been some bad economic data out there which is making investors nervous.

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  76. So predictor, what are your thoughts on todays action? Looked pretty ugly across the board! Still long

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  77. Hi every 1,

    Don't worry in precious metal, I think us debt and dollar is more bearish then before. But I am not bullish too on euro... So the precious metal is a better hedge.

    I think the stock will start it correction so any rebound is a sell.

    For oil. I think have some position signal is quite conflict but will sell all position on strength.

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  78. I feel that there is strong support in silver at 35 and gold at 1520. But I think they won't be heading higher too quickly (as last time) but that they will creep upwards this sumer unlike last year. 50 is a reasonable target for silver, maybe towards the end of the fall. Lets see how this plays out. Furthermore, I don't see the S&P dropping too much further from here. The dollar index looks headed towards 70 and this is good for stocks and commodities regardless of the deteriorating economic conditions in the US and Europe. I set some orders for silver in the 35's; I hope they get filled.

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  79. is anyone else on here much? I have a target for 40 in the silver market by end of month. I bought the etf. Still have copper.

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  80. Hi Greg, I'm still around :) I'm having a look at the oil market, apparently opec is meeting Wednesday which is putting some pressure on prices. Oil looks range-bound between 95-105 for now. But it hasn't fallen below 100 for too long.

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  81. Hi everyone,

    Now this is what i think, the market will be entering the great correction soon.

    So i think i am closing my long in oil soon , for S&P, will be on the next leg down...

    It is wise to add more short to any rebound.


    good trade everyone

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  82. The newsletter writer Dennis Gartman doesn't like the metals here and thinks that gold will go down as will other p.ms in a risk off trade along with stocks. Looks to me like gold is holding up pretty well though.

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  83. Dennis Gartman has been wrong everytime he's opened his mouth. I have no respect for this guy. Gold is getting ready to explode.

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  84. Hi chris,

    Long ago, i used to follow his trade but it seem like not very profitable trade ... mistake learn in the hard way ... so I think i am much better off with my own trading.


    good trade everyone

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  85. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-07/bernanke-says-accommodative-policy-needed-for-uneven-economic-recovery.html

    check this one...

    So i bet more QE 3 down the road but when ..... I putting my bet on S&P about 1210 - 1230 range ...

    Good trade everyone

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  86. Good bet. Do you have a full position in short S and P or looking to add more shorts on strength in the S and P? If so, from where? 1300 or less?

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  87. Hi og,

    My S7P short is almost full ... so i will not add more short but will look to close my short on weakness

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  88. Hi Preditor, congratulations on your short SnP trip! Thanks for your updates. I too have been shorting US banks via SKF. Do you see 1210/30 as the SnP's final correction for this year? Aseng

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  89. Hi Aseng,

    it is hard to tell from here as thing is getting complicated due to intervention , the best is adjust strategy as we move into an new environment.

    I think it is about time make another short in treasury bond... start to look good to short ..

    I will keep you all post on the bond..

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  90. Hi everyone,

    Beware of short squeeze, possible target rebound 1300

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  91. Thank you Preditor. Aseng

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  92. Hello all. I'm in cash at the moment looking to buy a dip in commodities if it materializes. Looking to get long of gold from slightly lower levels. Interesting idea on the treasury short; it will probably be best to do that at the bottom of this correction in the market, wherever that may be.

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  93. hi every 1


    I am buying precious metal on this dip and i have complete used up all my precious....

    now i will sit back and cross my finger...


    Still stand by to short the bond

    Good luck every 1

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  94. http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-ratings-house-says-us-defaulting-report-054309883.html

    A very interesting article out today that deals with the US default potential. Chinese rating agency basically saying the US is defaulting by intentionally weakening its currency and screwing bondholders. Nothing new here, but what I take from it is that the Chinese are now aggressively criticizing the US rather than sitting idly by. The short treasury / long metals thesis ties nicely to this article.

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  95. hi every 1,

    if the oil would break below US$96 below next wednesday,


    I think i will start to load up oil, cause it will look accumulate strategy and not long trap strategy to me ...


    will keep posted

    cheer everyone

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