Oil , Gold Sell off & Treasury rally - what is the hidden agenda

From Thursday - Friday there is a sell off in gold and most of the hard asset and equity ... Like have aniticpated however, the bear extend longer then I have predicted ...

So I try to think hard what is the reason behind the dollar strength , bond rally and Gold, silver and oil short term price depression.

I try to gather my idea and concluded this letter.


Why foreigner will buy less bond?
1) bond is now in huge bubble and this bubble will continue to grow due to poorer then expect economy recovery.

2)In the past, foreign willing to to extend support in US because US consumer is willing in consume product from foreign( Creditor country ) and willing to add more debt to consume ..For the past one Years this have change. e US consumer does not consume like they used, and their habit will change forever, not only they are unwilling to continue to add debt but they will become a saver which is good for the US long term economy look but bad not good if the government continue to have deficit ...

As US consumer spend lesser so the Creditor will get less dollar which will result in foreign inability buy while the Tresury is selling Bond like no tomorrow to finance the US trade deficit while the Fed keep printing press on to reflate the economy .. So this not bold well for the future auction and dollar ....


3) legendary investor like Jim Roger say that there will be world currency crisis, And I think it is beacuse of dollar pound sterling and possible the swiss franc in the distance future which I 100% percent agree with him .. no doubt about it ..

Conclude dollar will resume weakness and bond will fall in value ..

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Gold depression ?

I was quite surprise that gold did not hold up @ 1008 range which I believe it will hold .. Anyway ... I think there is a link with the bond run up and the gold sell off ...

Which I think someone is trying to sell bond @ high price and someone wanted to buy gold at low price .. And I believe this entity is Bric country ....

Now .. just read the news on the "China launches probe into imports of US chicken" this will not be a dollar as alot of Couintry will stand against USA on these protectionist policy .... and will not be good for US Dollar for week to come ...

After G-20 meeting, while this is not going to be dollar froendly, like I have being say in the past that the world economy structure is changing, alot of things will not be the same including dollar (USED to be store value ) and bond ( which is hype bubble mode) ...


I don't think this coincidence, but it is another well planned ..... Monday will be the turning for both bond and dollar to the down side ..

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Let talk about oil selling off ...

If you go back three - 4 month ago when oil start to rally Goldman sach predict that the oil will touch US$85.00 in the third - fourth quarter. Afew event did not turn out as planned , like driving season and hurrican and economy did not recovery come as planned and today goldman sach oil price to rise in future http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_3_MOLT/idUSTRE58O24S20090925 .. and Saudi Arabia say that the fair value for oil is US$75.00 http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093273068 .

and there is afew news which will support oil to news high, like iran test missle and the the acciddent in the oil refinaery...

Well ..... this is a new play on Monday .... so I still hold short term bullish on oil...

I have wrote in other blog, the problem in oil in short term is storage but not the commodities itself ... so why there is a huge selling off ... well someone would like to buy oil at cheaper price ...

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On Friday, I have buying alot of stuff and I have committed 95% of my fund ...

I have short treasury @ 102.52

Total in gold and silver is 45% of my fund

Buy mining stock GG @ 38.49 and HL @ 4.00
Silver @ 15.88
Gold @ 983

Oil @ average 66.45 ( 15% of the fund)
Long S&P @ average 1045 (10% of the fund)

Wheat and corn 25% of

Wheat
Decem contract @averge 459 ( 463 & 452)
March Contract @ average 482 ( 493 & 472)

Corn
@December average @ 330 ( 345 & 315)
@March average @ 346 ( 358 & 334)

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Market outlook for Gold, silver, oil stock, dollar , bond ...

Gold , silver, oil and mining stock will rebound on monday.

Dollar and bond will resume weakness starting next weeks ...

For stock, it is quite bearish signal in US stock but I think the dollar and bond weakness should outcome the bearish signal in equity ... so the stock will side way up for the time being ...

Hope everyone will have a good trade and best luck

P.S "Always take profit when you see one"















I have take a lot of long position on Friday ...