Today , I wake up ... it is one of the day which I my brain could not think of anything ... but then .. there is always something to write .... I go over my previous newsletter ...
I think I will like to start issue on dollar inflation and debt deflation ...
The news are say we are in deflation yes I have no doubt tha USA economy is on deflation but I think it is in debt deflation which will automatically deflation the economy like situation in USA ..
But why the cost of living is getting more expensive then is should be, food and gas have being increasing for the pass few month ...
This will come from the dollar devaluation or I call dollar inflation .... This ill be coming for the losing value of the dollar ...
I will complete this later on ...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
Shirley said...
ReplyDeleteHi Pred,
I read the article about KB homes. Do you think other home builders are going to have trouble with the SEC too?
I learned from my realtor that Fannie and banks are starting to rent houses rather than sell them. It makes me think we really might be at a bottom since they are keeping the houses for a while. Still, the risk is there to go lower because the banks could flood the markets with houses if they foreclosed on everyone with late payments and put houses on the market. My realtor said the banks were not going to flood the markets but add to inventory gradually??? I'm still very cautious tho and will not buy houses even tho I have tracked one investor who got houses at very low prices and flipped the houses making in my estimate about $50k per house. I do not want to get stuck if the banks flood the markets. That's why I'm learning about stocks.
============
Hi Shirley,
I think alot of company is in trouble more then the market see them ...
So I would not be surprise to see more of this in the future ...
Hi everyone, how is your day oday
ReplyDeleteGold touch new high ... I think if gold still hold out well in tomorrow trading should be good time to buy gold
Alhought the equity look weak today but think it is not a good to add short from here ...
ReplyDeleteHave to be cautious on short from here cause dollar will be more problem then fundamental...
Equity should rebound soon i I am not wrong
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
ReplyDeletei have Long Oil; i know you're long Crude Oil too. Want to ask, do you think this Crude Oil can reach to $80/bbl anytime this month?
Where is your selling target ? Do you have interest on Copper ? Copper plunged big today, i have not bot any yet, still waiting. Do you think today is a good buy? Bonds go back up as i suspected. Appreciate your reply
Anthony
Hi Antony,
ReplyDeleteI not interest in copper ... all my fund is invested so just waiting to cash out my position
For oil I will let the profit run .... if 75 is possible why not 80 :)
Anohiny, the bond rebound will be short live same as for dollar . ...
ReplyDeleteBoth should resume weakness
Gold is holding out well ... If anyone have add on friday ... like I have recommended ... should do well ...
ReplyDeleteI think 1050 is established so if gold a dip to 1050 - 1055 range should be a buy ... you can use as a guild line to buy silver ...silver should have more upside potential ...
Pred,
ReplyDeletegold a buy at 1050$ ? Hey, how about the seasonal? have you seen the chart? Oh man, it looks like we can have a mama size correction on gold soon ?? http://www.futuresbuzz.com/gold.html
are you sure these mkt just keep moving up?
I bot March Soybeans at 989.10, not sure if can continue to go upward. Coffee is in correction today, still holding. Hey, i am watching Copper.. looks like goin uptrend.
Correction seasonal on gold, Pred? What da yu think????? You think, they can keep going up? Sure or not??
Anthony
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI do not know,but I think it that dollar is more trouble then the other asset class fundamental.
For Example, S&P it should be correction since it touch 780 and look where we are now . 1065 ..
So I think the Gold will touch 1100 sooner then expect
In order to rebalance the world economy, dollar need to be devalue and bond need to be sold out ... I believe this will be the trend ..
The bond sold out is because i need to rebalance the yeild so the government could scale down the deficit.
Ok, i know what you mean. Dollar sucks. I think you're right, gold's on the way to $1100 soon. I'm ready to short 10yr Note & 30yr bond. No,haven't short them yet, will let you know when i will do so. You short them already? May be they soon fall down?
ReplyDeleteAnthony
hi preditor,
ReplyDeleteif u have a hour u could listen into this one,great discussion inflation vs deflation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eksf2ScG6yU&feature=fvst
Pred,
ReplyDeletelook at Crude Oil at 74+, soon go to $80? Man, this is inflation. They want to whack Iran by early 2010? They must be joking; how high can it go? do you know what's going on, why it gets so high, almost no retracement???
Anthony
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteJim Rogers was interviewed in NY recently. He discussed inflation, commodities, gold, etc.
Here is the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
He said that a lot of other commodities were cheaper than gold right now.
Wow, were you right about oil!!
Good trading out there to all.
Preditor,
ReplyDeleteIf you think more companies are in trouble like KB Homes, what are your plans regarding playing this out.
For myself, I generally do not want to invest in US stocks unless they are commodities.
Your thoughts as always are appreciated :)
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteYou are right, Long Emerging market will be better choice ..
========
Hi Allen,
I will catch the conversation you post... Thnx ..
======
Anthony,
I do not play investment by look at the chart and graph, I invest by trend and new reality ....
For gold, If you look at the chart @ 1020, the chart will tell you to sell your position ...so this is only cloud your judge on your investment
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteBond, alway put some short on strength ....
I put medium position shorting treasury last week when everyone is buying ....
Be greedy when everyone is fear and be fear when every is greedy ... I forget who write this , I think is warren buffet
Hi everyone ..
ReplyDeletehi preditor..
ReplyDeleteall playing out quite well..oil trying its breakout..
maybe euro/dollar has run to fast to far should retrace somewhat..
pound made a big rally..seems noone cares in brittain the have not the bonus of reserve currency..
Hi Allen
ReplyDeleteMay be next week we will some reverse in the market ... if S&P touch 1100 , it should be a good to take some profit ...
I think gold will have the next upleg next week ... any weakenness below 1055 is a buy ...
hm yes will give gold another try if trendline next week doesnt beak, euro/dollar around 1,4680 now..
ReplyDeletenext jear summer, hope nobody talking about gold anymore, than my plan is to put 1/3 into gold,goldstocks miners all without counterpartyrisk.. cannot find deflation around(i dont count the housing market in amerika,in eu falling 15% in some parts of asia still rising) ... everywhere i look inflation is coming..
And all this philips kurve stuff, high unemployment equals low inflation..we had times in europe when inflation and unemployment both where high..
This is a small thing, but I have noticed that some packages of cookies in supermarkets have fewer oz. of cookies. Are food companies getting ready for food inflation?
ReplyDeleteI looked more into diamond co., MDM. They claim to have the largest undeveloped diamond mine in the world with estimate of 61m carats in the ground. They are doing a feasibility study and plan be in production in 2012 or 2013. Also, they said no other big diamond mine has been found in the last 15 years and it takes about 15 years from discovery to production. I am going to try to verify these claims made on their website. (The CEO was talking on some business networks that I didn't recognize and they posted to their website).
we only see debt deflation for US economy, but asia we will credit grow for the time to come
ReplyDeleteHi shirley,
ReplyDeleteIn regard to the subject on sec probe into US company like KB, I would like to extend my commentary on this subject ...
Not all company is bad, ... there will a few stock with strong brand in gobal will do every well for time to come ...
Intel, IBM, HP, Macdonald , apple etc this are some of the company will benefit greatly for the weaken dollar which will create great earning profit from oversea from dollar devaluation ...
Thanks Preditor, for your reply.
ReplyDeleteHey, do you know anything about Vietnam infrastructure co., CAVO?
Any opinion?
Good trading to all!!!
Pred,
ReplyDeletewhat do you think about Nat.Gas today?
a Sell or a Buy?
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletemarket correction now, Wheat, Corn, Gold, Soybeans, Silver, etc., only Oil stay up. Crude Oil has a very bearish seasonal chart. October always bearish seasonal on Crude OIL. What are you going to do tomorrow or next week? Gold may correct everyone is waiting for it, and dollar hits support line today.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteyour thought on Nat.Gas ?
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteI'm shorting Nov. Nat.Gas at $4.530
Anthony