Today the equity should be in the short pressure or consolidation so it is not be a bad to take some profit after a 4 day run up.
But the bond sell off and the dollar get some strength .... hmmm ... well this is very tricky ...
Base on dollar strength , bond should be rally and equity and all asset class should be underpressure .. I see a mix up ... something is not right here .. Dollar should resume downtrend in the next two trading session.
I think someone might think of moving fund out of treasury and dollar .. ...
==========
Equity
I am expecting a new high in the S&P soon and the next trading session the equity should be in consolidation mode ... should to load some stock which will show good earnning at the dip if there is some correction
Will continue to hold gold and oil, still shorting treasury ..
Should it be a buy or sell in commodities , gold and silver silver ...
It is not bad idea to buy on dip as i think gold still have upside potential same as for oil and silver ... Gold will try to establish a new base @ 1050 - 1060 from my reading ..
Commodities and El Nino..
I have being doing some research on soft commodities and whether ..
Look like we are likely to have some food problem in 2010 beacause of El nino so I will expect a big rally in all commoditites as wheather changes will have great effect on soft commodities out put ... so I have to be patient on soft commodities trading ...
sorry for the late today ....
Good trade everyone
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I think The S&P will be heading up.. think going to long in S&P again
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeletehow about the big GAP up on GOLD & Silver's breakout on 10/06? Are we going to close this gap? Sure we will, but when? Daily stoch is way overbot... don't add anymore gold here. I agree with elnino & soft comm.
Anthony
I think the dollar is in serious trouble ... from the bond sell off today ... dollar does not look good ...
ReplyDeleteI think it not bad idea to add some gold on dip today
ReplyDeleteS&P is going up .. Adding 68.00
ReplyDeleteI mean 1068
ReplyDeletewhat you mean dollar is bad trouble?
ReplyDeletehow about big gap on gold? not close next week?
Anthony
10yr note has NOT -- break its lower uptrend channel, yet. This bond market v often do this kind of move, very volatile. by monday, it may go back up again. I got series of losses last time trading bond, too jumpy markets, my stops always got hit. I no short bond.. I wait
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Usually, bond and dollar should move in same way .. but not today ...
ReplyDeleteI think it is something to do with the trade deficit report which come in less then anticipated ..
the foreign government will said "you buy less from me why should loan you more money?"
I think this one of the reason the bond got sell off today ... will this will have effect on the dollar for sure
u saying, if 10&30yr bond go down, then dollar melt down too? If you take the mid point of high and low of 10yr & 30yr bond, draw the chart, draw the lower trend line, then, we have a breakdown today, breakout on mid point line, not on closing price line. Does it mean gold will run up again next week? Damn, it's way overbot, you know... who the hell want to buy gold at this price now, may be 2 weeks from now, but not today or next week? Gold's stochastic is overbot, almost pop out from my chart! I forgot to put a buy stop order for OJ.. damn, man; elnino makes everyone go crazy
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteCrude oil trades very volatile today, all over the place, from "-200" to "+300" points. It has breakout though, very weak breakout, almost no follow up. Soybeans & Coffee's breakout is better, much stronger.
Anthony
Anthony,,
ReplyDeleteI don't play with chart and technical because it will confuse the trend... I play with trend it work well for me ..
Gold .... for some people past 995 is already overbrought but look where we are now 1050 ..
And oil 68 people people said it is overbrought and look here we are @ 71 range ...
There is so many overbrought which not sure how overbrought thoery work ..I know it is like price going too fast at a short time ... if there is fundamental support .. dollar weak will continues to support gold ..
Pred,
ReplyDeletei confuse here... Hey, 10yr note breaking down, does that mean dollar need to go down too? How come we have Treasury down, but dollar goes up today?????? ? Can u explain briefly?
Anthony
I think someone is planning to move fund out of dollar big time ...
ReplyDeleteNeed to becareful if you planning to go long on dollar from here
Ok. Go long Dollar? You must be joking.. nobody wants to buy dollar. It may bounce up, but that's for us to short it later. Gold breakdown, may be go to close gap at $1020 next week? So, Pred, we have conflicting signal today. Therefore, EITHER (a) the Bond mkt correct to continue down & dollar down more, -- OR-- (b) bond go back up, and Dollar go up too. Which one you think will be likely event next week?
ReplyDeleteAnthony
If I am not wrong we will see dollar weaken later today or next trading session ...
ReplyDeleteToday very confusing...
the trendline around euro dollar 1,4640 must hold...
ReplyDeletethink ur right better wait and see..pound still weak
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteWith such a sell off in bond .. there be a small technical rebound in the next two trading session, but after that I expect the bond and dollar to resume weakness ..
For gold , I think will see rebound at the end of today 1040 - 1045 should be able to hold
I will be out of computer for a while ...
ReplyDeleteI will be back to update the posting ...
Good trade everyone
Pred,
ReplyDeletebond up, dollar up, gold down; bond down, dollar down, gold up. What we have now is gold down, bond down, dollar up. One of them is very wrong... I think, Gold will close its gap toward $1020/oz in near future. So, it means: {gold down, dollar up, bonds up...} Dollar up may not be dramatically up. Today we have a very strong USD.JPY upward move, looks like we have a breakout ?? Check..
Anthony
@anthony
ReplyDeleteyes looks like big squeeze lots of people shorting dollar with yen..
I wouldn't go long in dollar ... i think dollar should resume weakness today or next trading session .and gold should have some bound before end of the trading .
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteBond mkt is breaking down NOW... This is SERIOUS. Is this real or not ?? How come dollar still so high ? How come Oil doesn't rally, how come Gold still stuck in the mud?? I confuse.. repeat, Dollar still so high now.
shoot.
Anthony
Like I saying some one is planning to shift out of dollar big time ... so today dollar strength .. which I think ...
ReplyDeleteTo squeeze the short to cover so "someone can start moving out of the dollar ..
Don't the graph .. see the trend
I mean don't see the graph but see the trend ..
ReplyDeleteperfect time to short USD.JPY ?
ReplyDeleteAnthony
hm i dont buy a new short on dollar, almost got stoped out on the old one(euro)..
ReplyDeletehave a free game in short pound vs euro running..just want to see a retest of breakout..than i buy more
hm have i seen right dollar yen broke out of trendchannel..maybe im to big chicken, but if i would watch it closely enter again channel and only buy if it moves in my direction..
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletehow about Copper ? Do you think Dollar is rising in few weeks, thus pushing down all metals, including copper ?
Anthony
No.
ReplyDeletethe dollar upside will be limited .. I will bet more to the downside
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI am back from trip to North Carolina. Great time.
Hope your trading has been good. I did well not to sell any more stocks as they did well Thurs. and Friday.
I am still looking for an entry for gold and silver. Is there any hope of that under 1050 for gold?
Good luck out there!
Shirley
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteSound good to your position :)
On Friday I recommend to buy Gold on dip ...
I think the gold and silver will try to condolidate first before the next upleg ..
Let seehow it is going first .... buy start purchase gold
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI mean Let see today and tomorrow trading first before purchase gold ..
hi all,
ReplyDeletereally incredibel, seems we get another one of this rare moments in futures(s&pmini) where the entire short side is held buy small traders..large are big time long.. comercials are about to go long..in next few days i didnt want to own a short..
Looks like gold will go back down in next 2 weeks time because dollar moves counter seasonal now. there's still a big gap on $1020, don't know when it will get close. I also looking for entering gold less than $1030
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Technically don;t short the market ...
ReplyDeleteAlot of thing will go wild...like two week ago I said Oil will touch at least 72.00 and speculative fund will push it to 75.00 at that time it was 66 . ...I lot people disbelieves and today oil touches 73.50 ..
HL was downgraded. That is one of the stocks I had planned to purchase. Also, RBY and COLUF are my picks for gold.
ReplyDeleteI think HL is still a good stock but are there other silver stocks anyone likes?
Also Soros is buying green according to Blumberg. Does anyone know any good green stocks. I looked briefly at YGE since that goes with my theme of concentrating on Asian stocks.
Also, battery stocks have been doing very well and am thinking of purchasing more CMTP on a dip since that is kinda a green stock (batteries for cars, etc.).
CDE & HL are good silver stock. Also AGQ.
ReplyDeletein next 2 weeks will be a dangerous time to add long on gold, imo.
Anthony
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think gold need to consildate @ 1050.00 with strong footing before procceed .. wait for 2 more trading session to go long and see how it is going .
Quote of the day: "be fearful when everybody is agreedy" and "be greedy when everyone is fearful"
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI agreed with you, cause last time 1080 is the point where sell off begining ... but I think it will go to at least 1100 this time before make correction ..
Preditor1976:
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on FXI for the next 6 months? I would like to start a long position (>12 months) but think that in general there may be a meaningfull correction comming for FXI, possibly to below the 50dMA. The CSI 300 is retesting 3000, while FXI is moving mostly sideways.
Thanks for any help you can provide.
Bob G
Hey Pred and Anthony,
ReplyDeleteGreat advise. I'm researching today and learning to wait.
I will also look at cde and agq :)
Another thing that I have been noticing is that memory chip semiconductor stocks seem to be a good sector to look into, ie., ramtron, ramblus etc.
Bob,
ReplyDeleteI have not being following FXI... can you give me a brieft trading background for FXI
So I can make some research on this
Bob,
ReplyDeleteThere are three profitable Chinese otc stocks who are trying to get on the NASDAJ OR AMEX - whenever a stock moves to these boards they have gone much higher. Those stocks may be a good long term play, but of course they are riskier. Their symbols are CHBT, CMTP AND CHNR. (I own all of them as they are profitable and have good bal sheets).
Preditor1976:
ReplyDeleteIn my mind DJIA(usa) = FXI(china). That is to say that ticker FXI is a etf (ishares) with the 25 (about) largest chineese companies, most of which are joined at the hip with the Chineese goverment and will not fail. The attached web site gives the current holdings.
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/holdings/FXI.htm
In a nut shell, FXI is a safe way to go long china (>12 months), if it is at good price and the near term (>6 to 18 months) market is a bull.
As always, great blog!
Bob G.
PS: Was long DXO from 2.5 until CFTC forced me out at 4.20. Wasn't interested in UCO at that time, so went long DIA because this market isn't trading on fundimentals. This market appears to be focused on FED QE and Nov 2010 midterm elections, the Democrates will be reelected at any cost to america. Am thinking that at SML = 345 to 360 and RUT = 650 to 675 to start taking profits in DIA.
Eveyone,
ReplyDeleteThis one look like a problem to US equity market
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/KB-Home-shares-fall-on-SEC-rb-2570350263.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
Check out ...
Will have to evaluation the impact on dollar and equity again .. I will try to complete tomorrow in a new tread
Don't short the market first ...
ReplyDeletehm alot of possibel black swans out there, on german boards they are concerned about cit group think 29.10.2009 is their deadline..
ReplyDeleteHi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI read the article about KB homes. Do you think other home builders are going to have trouble with the SEC too?
I learned from my realtor that Fannie and banks are starting to rent houses rather than sell them. It makes me think we really might be at a bottom since they are keeping the houses for a while. Still, the risk is there to go lower because the banks could flood the markets with houses if they foreclosed on everyone with late payments and put houses on the market. My realtor said the banks were not going to flood the markets but add to inventory gradually??? I'm still very cautious tho and will not buy houses even tho I have tracked one investor who got houses at very low prices and flipped the houses making in my estimate about $50k per house. I do not want to get stuck if the banks flood the markets. That's why I'm learning about stocks.
Hi shirley ,
ReplyDeleteI just open a new tread...