Getting busy with business and thank you for very input in this blog... hope this blog will develop knowledge investment based blog...
there is alot of thing to cover let jump to anylsis ..
The pass week there a change in trading fundamental model which I have suspected that more fund will be shift into precious metal and commoditites. The precious metal have consolidate last week as i have anticipated and expect a hard rally this week and will make high every week throught the end of year 2009 ..
Dollar and Bond ?
There is bond auction annoucement of 112 billion dollar ... i believe this time is the same drill like I used to write ... so we have see some short term pressure as hot money will pulll outof the market and will used this opport to relocate the investment and this time, I believe it will in commodities and precious including Oil and Nat Gas..
I have a reader who ask me to read an interesting blog regard inflation fear and unexpect rate hike and acticle is trying to link bond movement with stock market in 2008 ....There some different between the 2008 and 2009.
1) That was 2008 but the now is 2009 so the time line is different.
2) 2008 we nearly have system collasp 2009 we have fundmental structure change in the world economy.
3)2008 crsis is new to world economy but the crisis have now become a new normal for the world economy.
4) Like a say a few time, US do not want a strong dollar same as for Yuan .. so we will have some swinging in currency trading but eventually chinese will allow Yuan to gain strength when dollar inflation became dangerous which i think somewhere next years we will a strong Yuan ... when this occured I hope you have already some gold in your profolio for long term play or saving ..
Now why I think the US want a weaker currency and do not expect rate hike
1) Weaker dollar will allow fed to inflate some debt away.
2) Improve export and bring back job from over sea .
3) US government is trying to stablized house which i expect a new problem in real estate somewhere so low rate is needed to cusion the impact ... technical there is no anitdote for US economy the old power still want the system alive so we will leave life line for a time being or as long as it take the the Fed Chair say in interview sometime ago .
Prepare for Yuan strength in the future which will fuel demand for yuan and yuan demoinated bond which result more dollar unwinding ..
Economy is in deflation and but not dollar. Assest which demoninated when compare to dollar will be inflation ... I call dollar inflation
Conclusion:
Dollar will resume weakness and bond should be resume ... just waste a few opport unity to short due to away from trading desk ... still look for opportunity to short bnd.
Bond ?
Well technically i am not a bull in bond some time in the future we will have bond unwinding ..
This time will we see the short term maturity bond sale @ record as the overnment is trying to row over the debt but the market is over supply with 10 years note and we will see more short term bond sale more in the distant future ...
Wrap up
Gold and Precious will make new high very week from now through out 2009 at least.
Soft commoditites will rally will rally just like sugar in the past month
Nat gas and oil is a bit lag but should close up the gap and expect strong rebound in this week trading session
Equity have already made some correct in last week session so I expect consolidation and will ended higher by this weekend ended.
Will extend commentary during the trading session .
hope everyone have a great trading day
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Preditor, once again very good analysis. i agree, and you were right last week. On this blog we should be less concerned with the stocks and more with oil, softs, grains, and metals b/c that is where the trades are right now. There are so many people afraid when stocks lose for a few sessions in a row. They keep talking about a 10-15 percent correction in equities but i dont see that happening with rates this low. If anythiing, the markets moevments ARE correlated to a degree with capital flows in and out of bond markets. Thus the auctions do have some impact, and the dollar rises in the days before they have to make a sale. Anyways, fear not the risk trade; i am not taking profits on metals unless dollar rallies over 76.50, gonna let it ride for a little while.
ReplyDeleteI have been doing reading about the nature of the commercial short positions in the silver market. JPM and one other bank hold the vast majority of commercial shorts in comex silver. JPM inherited these position from Bear when they took them over, and still kept them through the crisis maybe as a favor to the government while the bailout happened. They are already unwinding those 40000 shorts...silver can really move once they beat a retreat. It is happening as we speak.
ReplyDeletehi pred...
ReplyDeletesomehow u seem imune to the market noise thats going on and seeing the bigger picture...
after having some big bookprofits i usually get owned from fear..start calculating..thinking about all they things u can buy with it and faster than u can look have sold it and spend my time watching it move hiher hehe
sold gold fooled from currency movment at 1100..now iam the one that bought that gap today 70 dollar later hehe..
og also spotet the chance in gold earlier i hope iam not a latecomer..
also long dax now leveraged knockout 5600..
maybe og is right currencys are somehow manipulated.. they try to keep a tradingrange..but gold and commos showing that something is wrong
Comment by Fresbee,
ReplyDeleteThis could be more than a rumour as its coming from some of friends in funds....not just trading desks.......Gold ripaway from mainstream is also indicative of that......
I think FED will be forced to do rate cut given the bank failure facing them.....
I will be not surprised if the final crash in currencies worldwide will be early next year probably Jan, if the given rate cut happens.
Same time EU new president term starts..
I notieed that on HMS' blog (which I enjoy reading daily). I wonder if he means that rates will have to go negative b/c of the commercial real estate problems. After all, aren't rates at 0%-.25% right now?? Have rates ever gone negative in the past?
ReplyDeleteAlso, what effect will the extension of the purchase of mortgage backed securities, which is set to end in Q1, have on the price of gold and silver. I think we will see 1300 in gold and 25 in silver by march expiration, as QE round 2 further erodes the dollar.
ReplyDeleteHi every one,
ReplyDeleteAllen , it look all my position just explode, and I lot of people just realize that we are going to have inflation. But fortuately people still did not Get it that it not about rate hike or not but it is of yuan thAt is tight with USA dollar. I have being saying this for sometime now of the fed is going to lower the rate then the Chinese is going to be under alot of pressure
The Chinese will be under pressure to revalue yuan then we are going to have the greatest dollar unwind in the history of human mankind. I would like everyone who are new to this blog review my past blog to catch my previous thinking so understand more clearly what is going to happen
ReplyDeleteallen,
ReplyDeleteI think you are doing fine with your trading. You are careful in your trading which is good. The most important in trading is not to make lose Money search for the trend think deep for the possibility when you read news.
Og
ReplyDeleteI think the dollar I inflation is still new, dollar inflation will technically inflation everything that is not the dollar itself. I have being stick to this trend for the past 8 month and it it doing well for me
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteregarding freebee it is great possible. This is one of the us can force chinese to revalue yuan
Everyone, if Chinese yuan is going to revalue somewhere in the future, it is not a bad have some yuan in your correction or buy emerging market equity eft
ReplyDeleteHello Preditor. Finally maybe I will get it and not persist with my "not so clever" tries to short this market. I do not know what flies into my sometimes. I appreciate your devoted answers. Thank you
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Anyone else notice silver is lagging gold even tho it is a better buy? Even Jim Rogers makes a case for silver and not gold today.
ReplyDeleteIn looking for an answer regarding lag in silver, I found an article about food shortages in India. tohttp://www.commodityindia.com/news/news1.asp?fn=Agrioutput110609
ReplyDeletehey shirley, my guess is that the performance of silver has much to do with the massive short positions that have yet to be unwound. Once the dxy breaks the 75 handle for a couple of consecutive sessions, silver should break through. This is my take, and i think it applies to grains/softs too. I think we can have $24 silver by march.
ReplyDeletehi preditor..
ReplyDeletehm seems dollar weakness really continues..hope manages to stay above 1,50 for some time..
gold like always one record high after another hehe..just small pos in gold at 1170 im happy both ways goes up or correction to buy more dream would be 1100..
corn/wheat sufferd yesterday but today dollar weakness again preventing maybe some correction..
i have a eye on nikkei around 9000 will start buying first pos in an etf
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIt looks pretty good for grains today - corn, wheat and soybeans.
@OG, Silver is still holding back.
@Allen, I'm dreaming with you on gold.
Hey Pred and everyone,
ReplyDeleteMany are calling for Geithner to resign. What effect will this have on markets? I think gold may temporarily retreat. What are you thoughts everyone?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1B7Cs1f.TO8
hm geithner for me its just a pawnsacrifice, under obama u have seen his desicions he wants to please everyone..u need some ronald regan kind of politicans to end this bull market in gold..with keynes chances are high u end up having stagflation economy..in us i think
ReplyDeletehmpf heard rogers talking about coffee now i dont get my prices for some time i think shirley ur lucky
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeletesilver might be a lag ... I might starting to sell some gold and switch to silver ... silver should close up the gap ...
IF geitner got fire .. I think i might shorting equiy index...
I will think the commoditites is starting to move one by one , generally the whole soift commoditites is starting and we will see the commoditites move after the gold and silver make some puase ...
Let me put this way ... we have seen nothing yet in the commodities rally .... hold on tight ... there good profit ahead .. :)
The food supply is quite don;t be lure to short the market ...
Daily trading is getting dangerious the swing is too great....
I mean the food supply is quite tight..
ReplyDelete@Allen,
ReplyDeleteYes today was a good day for me. I sold coffee and sugar today tho, because I wanted to commit more to silver. (25% of portfolio) Might be sorry later as silver is lagging but I think sooner or later silver will break out to match or exceed gold.
Also, yesterday I bought a little oil at 76.08. Won't hold it very long. (It would have been better to buy nat gas).
Today was good for corn and wheat too. :)
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteWell , i miss a few time on the oil which really testing my patient and i miss out a few to take a profit which I thought it will be a one run rally toward 85 -90 range... I think oil will resume it momentum soon ... the linkage with Nat Gas , the more nat gas is moving higher , I no doubt that will follow suit, just i inform this blog Nat Gas is a buy since US$4.42 but they, the market, make it difficult for you to detect the trend.
So conclusion : I think the Oil will hit a new high for the years soon or later ...
Oil at this price a a bargain ... might start to short equity index .soon ....
hm thuersday running against trend was expected but that was really heavy today..gold impressive lost not that much every dip ist bought very fast so far..
ReplyDeletehm soros boom/bust pattern
An yet unrecongniced trend
The beginning of a self reinforcing process
A succesfull testing of the market direction
An increasing conviction
A divergence between reality and perception
The climax
Ultimatly the start of a mirror image self reinforcing sequenze in opposite direction
hm i think we are somewhere between stage 2 or 3 in gold/silver
Dubai causing lots of upheaval in markets. Mobius, on Bloomberg, says this may start a correction in emerging markets.
ReplyDeletehm yes things getting hot..dont know if iam today beeing a buyer in cloase..lot of fear in market
ReplyDeleteDubai story is a headfake in my opinion. I sold all my holdings on wed. (before the holiday), then did some research in the dubai story today. it seems all the biggest players knew about this story for a long time; the way it was released in the news was the reason its caused so much fuss. I bought back into silver and gold this morning in the american session. silver at 18.12, gold at 1163. I know have a 60/40 allocation of silver to gold. Maybe I am wrong, but I have a feeling that the decision to buy back in was a good one. If you did not sell, I would hang on rather than cover you position. I think the risk asset chase will resume, and metals will benefit. the real concerns arise next year when the fed must give us new guidance. Ignore the noise for now!
ReplyDelete@OG, Props to you for taking profits. I didn't but I agree with you about hanging in for now. One thing that surprised me was that the commodities reacted so negatively to the equities. I thought they might be decoupling somewhat, but I guess not. I think a correction is coming in equities sooner rather than later, and my question is what will commodities do then?
ReplyDeletehm og really has balls of steal buying at last friday morning i didnt managed..
ReplyDeletebookprofits on small leveraged gold position are almost 0 now..
my biggest swing position corn doing not that bad..
but still with more than 90% cash in euro on sideline waiting..some technicals keeping me away from buying big time now..
hm hoping for some end of month profit taking..watching orko to play silver..nikkei coming cloaser to my buying levls but drops like stone incredibel fast hm
but like always u think alot during weekend make ur plans than markets open and all is different again hehe
Hi everyone.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out - not sure if that important, but it makes me hopeful for next week.
Silver/Gold surge in India http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Silver-gold-prices-surge-after-slump-in-India-13067.html
a wiser move would have been to stay in cash. however, i noticed that europe turned green the day after the dubai story, leading me to think it may be more of a buying opportunity. i bought in the a.m., and created a small profit cushion on the re-investment. however, I may want to turn to cash again, my idea may have been ill thought. I am looking for a retrace in gold to 1150 to forge a larger position in futures, buying contracts all the way up to the 1230 point. We shall see what lies in store. My march targets are still 1350-1400 and 23-24 in silver. I agree with jim sinclair that we could see 1650 by 2010 end, but I think we will have a 10-20% correction in gold at some point (everything will be hit at some pt next year) and I want to lock in profits by spring. I think now is best time to be super bullish on metals as far as risk tolerance goes.
ReplyDeleteGood morning..What d`you think about natural gas ? I`m holding some UNG. Don`t you think it may be going higher from this levels? ... Don`t you think a little correction in gold may be coming soon?
ReplyDeleteAndrès
hey pred, do you still see a new high every week in gold?
ReplyDeletechris
hi everyone ,
ReplyDeletegone for some nice rest, switch off my computer out of the world to enjoy a life for the past week ...
hope trading grant for everyone ....
A short note ...the dubai treat is real so ... but back to my comment in my previous blog the more bad news we have in the market, the more we should add position in commoditites ...
I still keep to my predicting trend, i see the gold making new everyweek from throught at least the end of the years ...
Don't forget soft commodities...it is still a lag .... the next exposion rally will in soft commodities
@Pred,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear you had a great rest. Yesterday was grand as I am mostly in silver and agriculture. Gold still is outperforming silver and I hope that will change. I assume you also mean silver will continue to make new highs as well.
Hope you have a super week.
hi preditor
ReplyDeletehm last week grant i would not say but atleast no losses *G*
"any man can earn a dollar but it takes a wise man to keep it.."
tomorror ezb meeting but trichet starts getting unsound dont know.. his last interviews that reached me a lot of talk removing liquidity without raising rates ..is he wizard of oz hehe..
Hi Shirley and Allen,
ReplyDeletethank you, I really enjoy the trip with my family.
Still trying o catch up with the news, what i see we will have hidden bomb like dubai case, and i think no central will not dare to pull out the liquid too fast including ECB .... and I will expect extended QE just like the japan ...
We are not out the wood ... and easy money will be push the sepculation to new high ...
Atleast all my position still safe .... althought i was out of my computer ...
Silver is still new born and should do well soon like shooting star... but oil ....hmmm .... technically and trend this oil shoul make new high ... but oil really dissapointing ....
Look out for soft commoditity , I think soft will be the new raising star for next years trading.
hm
ReplyDeletecorn iam still in..think we need oil abouve 80 that corn makes his move..large traders didnt sell but didnt bought that much what i have seen are still long..
wheat
with no commo i was so often wrong than with wheat.. i planned buying first pos around 540 thers a gap and a strong trendline..playing it with dangerous leveraged minifutures so really need a good price..large traders coverd lots of shorts..but chances are high i end up watching it again moving higher hehe
gold
dont know no technicals seems working have small pos startet again at 1170 planned buying tomorror if pattern continues thuersday against weekly trend or friday cloase buying more
oil
if euro dollar manages to stay abouve 1,50 for some time than no inventory number can prevent oil from catching up to its fair value..but just playing it with oil stocks again
@Pred and Allen,
ReplyDeleteAlthough I don't like oil very much, at least the Iranian dispute could help move oil - a lot, if Israel comes calling.....
Marc Faber wrote a lot about PM. Will summarize tomorrow as I had a late day today and going out early tomorrow.
From dailyfutures.com
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. Treasury said that next week, it will auction $40 billion of 3-year T-notes, $21 billion of 10-year T-notes, and $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds.
Shirley...so, should we expect a pullback..??
ReplyDeletehi all..
ReplyDeleteso thuersday after bad week was a dream in dax gap up opening and crashed down..could catch move to gap is like picking money from floor hehe and iam not the best skalper..
starting accumulation oil shares..theirs a big gap between euro/dollar chart and oil chart oil almost always cloases that gap..oil chart also looks like a big bullflag target around 90..
cloased the minifuture pos in gold and put money back in miners(i know are not cheap anymore if they go down big time i buy more)..this minifuture staff is like smoking u know it will kill u at some point in future but u cannot stop hehe
if orders get filled than 30% invested long in gold,silver,corn,oil and some small caps..
Hi Allen (Chartman),
ReplyDeleteWhat does your technical analysis seem to indicate for silver? Seems like 19.00 is hard to go over.
Thanks.
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteThis article on palm oil and el nino also referred to soybeans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aPnYvaaElyaM
hi sherly..
ReplyDeletehm technical analysis cannot predict future, its more a what if game.. if this supportline or trendline is broken chances are high price wants to test next one and so on...
like seen in nikkei 9000 was holding and one week later above 10000..
more improtant is always what preditor does fundamental and macroeconomic analysis..buisness cycle hot money movement and so on...
back to silver hm if dollar doesnt stop we could see a retest of support and trendline around 17,80 there should be alot of buyers
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
if u look euro/dollar was a dream to trade last half jear..reacting to ema52(24h chart)no cloase under ema52 since april..on friday euro buyers again could fight back there..thats the levl iam watching as long as it holds i have no panic
bought alot on friday more than i wanted gold and silver hm gold on avrg 1170..hm if turns out that iam wrong have 50% cash left for puts..
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou r right. It is all about the dollar strength. Short term $ seems like it will get a little stronger, but not for very long. Too much money printing, spending on health care, war, wall street friends, etc.
BTW, I have been reading the book you recommended on Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. It's boring! But I am trying to stick with it.
@shirley
ReplyDeletehehe i know its no indian love story..
read from chapter 13 on there is the most interesting stuff basics of support and resistance..
u need to get every edge that u can get.. never forget u are playing against goldman..at some point the put out there wrong analysis to get rid of some to expensive stocks..
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot!!!! I've already read Ch. 1-13. It's not only not a love story, it's written in old 1940's grammar. Yawn.
But, to the point of GS, I think there are many more than just Goldman who try to confuse and mislead the ordinary investor. If Bloomberg and FoxBusiness say one thing, you can almost take to the bank the opposite will happen.
Anyway, I am trying to learn how to time investments and I thought chart patterns might help.
Also, I am beginning to think that the market is topping very soon, and that commodities will go with it, at least temporarily. I havn't seen very much decoupling between equities and commos. We'll see in a few hours how the dollar is doing and that should give at least an indication.
Good trading to you and everyone.
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about gold?
I`d like to know your opinion.
Thank you.
Andres
hi all
ReplyDeletehm my timing for the last swing was not perfekt hehe..could reduce damage alittle intraday with shorts..my euro/dollar levls broke down..
planning cutting lots of longs at half but waiting for some bounce up this week to sell..
hm chances are high euro dollar wants to test next support around 1,4600..
the picture is really good maybe some high volatile sideways movement ahead..
http://weygandcapital.com/2009/12/08/grosere-volatile-seitwartsphase-voraus/
anyone have comment on jjg?
ReplyDeleteCBS
ReplyDeleteHere is an article written on 12-6-09.
So far they are right.
http://thegraintrader.com/thegraintraderupdateblog/
Thanks Shirly :>)
ReplyDeleteWe´re missing you Pred! It would be nice to have your opinion about market. US DOLLAR, GOLD..etc.
ReplyDeleteThanks
hi all..
ReplyDeletepreditor were really missing u ,hope u find some time for updates..
thuersday and friday gave me chance to cut long pos at half..iam really happy to have stoped shorting dollar some weaks ago and to have rolled a dangerous minifutre pos in gold over to miners..ok more smart would have been staying in cash but have a foot in the door..
sold silver game with orko to my surprise 10% profit..i bought it last friday silver trading a dollar higher wired..i mean frankfurt exchange..
keeping oil game with omv 2% down at moment
cut corn pos on friday at half..panning buying back if dollar shortcovering rally continues at 370..
think markets are in some kind of sidewaystrading range at moment at the upper boundarys of that range (sorry bad english) ..last weak it was much better watching yen crossings to get market direction than euro/us..
at moment 25% long gold(miners),oil,corn,some smallcaps 75% cash euro..
Hi Allen, Andres and CBS,
ReplyDeleteWill add that I miss Pred analysis too. Hope things are okay with him.
I have also lighten up on my positions. Sold silver early in the week and JJG on Friday. Will enter again later. It seems that the dollar is strengthening and at the same time, the market still went up last week. But I'm not sure where this dollar trade is taking the markets. As Allen has said before, the air is getting thin. (Btw, I like that saying).
I have dipped my toes in some of the refineries like VLO and TES, but I'm not planning to do much more buying of anything for now.
I have considered going long in oil too as I think Israel will attack Iran sooner rather than later to keep them from getting nukes.
Have a great trading week.
hi sherly
ReplyDeleteso many mixed signals but whats really concerns me is if u look at cot report dollar index..
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
large traders (smart money) are incredible long in dollar index and increase pos..
while u can look at smp minis smart money reduced little long pos but commercials buying big time hm
corn also smart money reduced some of pos, one thing u should know about corn theres some sort of natural limit how much prices could go down...what i mean is that at 3dollar goverment steps in and pays the farmers money to keep their corn..so my minifutures are with knockout under that levl..to let me sleep good *G*
oil is difficould have decided give pos another weak if not starting to work cuting at half..
like i sayed once iam really bad at taking a loss but i can fool myself if something concerns me i cut things in half not matters if i take loss or profit if iam wrong and position moves up than this small los doesnt matters if iam right and pos drops like stone i buy back at cheaper price..
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteThe timing chart you referenced is an SP 500 mini.
I did not see a COT chart for large traders on the dollar but I would like to see one. However, another thing that is concerning me is the very low trading volume and the fact that we have been in a trading range for over 5 weeks. If traders are going long on the dollar and we are in this range, it is starting to look like we might be near a correction?
What do you see in all this market activity?
hi shirly
ReplyDeletesomehow cannot link the picture but u can switch from smpmini to dollar index in the upper left corner..
they managed again to win with their long dollar trade and with their longs in stocks..
its not perfekt just weekly update but u can get an idea what smart money is doing and u can look back smart money was short in front of crash last jear so its always good to know but they can turn positions fast around during weak u cannot see there..
thats the wired thing that confusing me too dollar strenght and stocks make new highs..dax new high as long as he can keep over 5850 is incredibel bullish..like u read in the book the line changes now from resistance to supportlevl a trendchannel is broken to the upside..so markets tell u they want go up eaven with some dollar strenght.. iam only watching important levls hourly charts if this levl gets broken i consider shorts not sooner..
i know was not much of a help but not much trading days left thuersday will be a first test if it was a false breakout..end of month and year is near so lots to consider but there will always at some point a correction come to buy in again..
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteI found the $dollar Index and if I read the bottom of the chart showing commitment of traders, it showed commercial COT at 0%. Then, large traders COT @ 100%. Perhaps, I was reading the chart incorrectly. It doesn't seem right for ALL commercials to be short and ALL traders to be long. There must be a chart error????
@ Allen,
ReplyDeleteAlso, I must be crazy because I thought gold and silver would stay below $17.50 for a while, but now its getting some steam and I'm thinking of buying back again. Just like equities, the dollar and silver/gold are going up together. This is just crazy.
Maybe, all the other currencies are just weaker than the $.
@Pred,
I hope all is ok and you are just busy with work.
hi shirley..
ReplyDeletehm dont know where u looking
Large Traders 14063 net long
Commercials -15081 net short
Small speculators 1018
under the big chart should be a smaller onewhere u see the position changing of the 3 groups, it means adding up positions of large traders sure some have shorts but if u add up all positions than they have more longs in dollar index at moment than shorts..
take corn as an exampel commercials are hedgers they own that stuff or will own it..they go short when they think prices are high they will add to shorts to hedge against falling prices...look what happend during aug,sep commercials went long they dont wantet to hedge against falling prices ore eaven sell their stuff at that price..
so u find good chances to buy at cheap prices like preditor did he bought lot of dec corn at lowest price..
its getting dangerous when commercials start to go short to extreme points they thinking can only go down than and want to protect demself..
try to study some of this charts and u will always find some good chances is 100times more worth than listening to analysts ore reading reports i want to see where the money is hehe
when large traders turn around pos in dollar index i will also short dollar again not sooner..so if have found some of my best games in past..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteNow I see where you were looking. Do you use these charts more than any other thing in order to decide what to buy? Just follow the smart money?
It seems the correction might be here. Glad I didn't have chance to buy PMs yesterday. Perhaps the lesson is if indicators are mixed, choose the dollar index over any other. Perhaps it is time to short?
Looking at spot gold 2hr chart indicates a downward channel with a breakout of 1142ish, but now back to the bottom of the channel. Good time to buy gold?
ReplyDeletechris
ps what happend to pred
@allen where do you get those position charts?
ReplyDeletechris
@shirly
ReplyDeletehm smart money is your opponent can only make money if u or iam loosing money so i want to know what they are doing..yes i scan all commo markets after some pattern..but every market is different in some like silver gold commercials never go long..
hm short u mean smp iam not trading that was so a laag..but after quick view i would trade the breaking of the channel..my style is more waiting until 1092 breaks ,on daily or houly chart, than take aktion short always with stop loss some points abouve 1092 after breaking of such an important levl often a retest follows..
interresting will be the new report but market are full of trendfollowing crowd so would be no suprise if we see much more long dollar pos from small traders more important will be if large traders increase again..
@chris
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
hm at gold i have bought some but iam prepared to cut pos at half if trendline 1100 breaks on daily
@Allen
ReplyDeleteYou really have a good link to the dollar and sp index. Your charts indicated that equities and dollar would go up since that is where smart money had been. (I wonder if they changed their position yesterday).
But I have a question. Who are the commercials? Are they the ETF/fund managers holding small investors' money? And large traders are the smart money - using their own money to make money? I think I may keep a journal of changes in smart money.
BTW, oil is up today. Another crisis in the middle east. I thought it would be Israel attacking Iran, but instead I read that Iran had surrounded an Iraqi oil field.
Gold and silver is getting interesting.
hi sherly
ReplyDeleteu misanderstand..commercials dont trade to make money sounds stupid but the just hedje but they are no hedge funds..they are most of the time against trend in currencys as exampel..can also be a big sovereign fond whose role is to protect capital put aside for future development in countries..ore the provide some hedging for us companies operating in eu or japan if they have to exchange large amounts of dollar..when they need to exchange large amounts of us dollar to yen they go to their hedging department they dont want to pay market price in half a jear..
large traders are not just traders with lot of money *G* thats the group thats trading to make money also hedge funds and so on
but its not working 100% sometimes eaven smart money is loosing
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteWhere do all of you guys learn all of this stuff? I feel stupid sometimes but I am going to ask you what all this means from the post at HMS site. I'm also posting it so you can read it for yourself if you didn't see. (I thought a VIX of 12 would be low and that the market would go up). They seem to be talking about a market crash so I'm confused.
HMS said...
Fresbee said...
by the way GS has a black swan event for 2010. They believe VIX will crash to 12 while markets are expecting an uptick.....unbelieveable how their views coincide with those of many of the smarter fund managaers like Paulson.
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Hey Fresbee,
Excellent contributions today
You are the Man Of The Match :)
@Allen, Teddy also said VIX would go to 8-12 in 2010.
I forgot to thank you for the response.:)
ReplyDeleteHey Allen,
ReplyDeleteI found out about black swan event - link
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp
Is it possible to find out what stocks the specialist is accumulating?
hi shirley
ReplyDeletehm i read from time to time hms block, some are very contrarian there..they like the old saying if the vix is low its time to go..ore something like that..
i know what blackswan means, have read the famous book *G*, but nature of a blackswan event is u dont see it coming, it will hit u buy suprise..only good hedge against such an event is having always some cash that u can profit from the cheap prices after..but guessing when it comes will not help u, u cannot stay 100% in cash all the time, and just wait..some said the event would come in may..than it was june..then the said in august and so on..they have missed a big ralley and some went short and got destroyed..
the one writing about is fresbee, i like his writing about dollar he makes alot of good points, his fundamental style iam sure works great for him in em markets with his high yield stocks.. but the way he trades currencys is very dangerous..without stops often high leverage he is the one in danger getting killed buy such an event in eu zone..he bought euros all the way down from 1,48..
hm u dont need to feel stupid hehe, u try to improve,stupid are the ones thinking watching a hour cnbc is enough, u made alot of money on the longs this year where lots of small traders got destroyed on there shorts..no need to stay 100% investet now.. take out some cash ur dollar winning at moment almost every day purchasing power ,i have more trouble with my euros now and considering taking shorts on euros next week after some bounce..hm u can look at some internet sites the positioning of hedge founds what the are buying..the must report their big positions..
hi all
ReplyDeletetook some profit on oil game..was lucky with this, the setup why i bought oil, dollar weakness not exists anymore..rest of pos i let run but will cloase it when reach buying levl
bought carfully first euro shorts,want to have some profit on this pos than starting to increase ..expectet more of a bounce from euro but trendfollowing crowd hammer euro down every sign he shows of a bounce ..if its really dollar strenght or euro weakness will gold show..
gold im in that game and doing nothing as long it can defend 1100
20% investet at mom long gold,corn,oil,long usd/euro,some small caps..
It seems the 2009 model of dollar weakness and equities strength is getting readjusted here. Now, equities and $ go together lately. Very strange.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part I am going to stay out of markets and wait to see what Faber writes at the end of the month altho I bought a stock called LTON that is selling for less than the cash on its books and very little debt - if books aren't cooked.
yes really strange..in past dollar/equi could decouple for 2 or 3 weaks..question is who will catch up is dollar bouncing back and equi go eaven more up or dollar stays strong and equi start to fade away..cannot find answer in my charts..
ReplyDeletehm silber broke 17 level when it cannot win back fast, was big support and trendline looks like sks with target 15 now u should see after reading the book *G*
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteYes, silver is been weak. I havn't owned it for a while. Hope you are out of gold too as it is weak.
This market is difficult to interpret for me too. I'm not going to trade this week and just see what happens. I am about 50% in cash and I will sell other stock in Jan. if this pattern continues as it makes me uncomfortable.
Would really like to know Pred's thoughts.....
hm played it with miners cut pos allitle..miners priced in euro arent loosing terribel much some loose nothing...
ReplyDeleteat moment better watching yen crossings to get some hint of daly market direction if yen is weak vs euro and dollar allmost always a rising trend..euro/dollar confuses more..hm selling in jan reminds me on that goldman analysis average duration of hope 10months *G*
think preditor is on holidays..
gold has a ways to go, i would look to buy around 1020
ReplyDeletechris
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteRegarding selling in January, are you referring to the market cycles u wrote about a few months back?
You are much calmer than me - I think you have been trading a lot longer. But don't you think the market is due for a correction soon? Would you see the signs a day or two ahead?
hi shirley
ReplyDeletehm would be great if i could know 100% for sure whats happening 2 days in future i would levrege up 100 times and be incredibel rich hehe
all we can do is like the big guys faber,rogers iam sure they dont sell their gold in panic..they know their worst case downside is, cost to mine a ounce around 800dollar and their possibel upside is almost unlimited..so they always have cash to profit from a situation where price goes down to much maybe from some deflation fears..but iam no permabull on gold or silver really the end of such an long bullmarket are high very high interest rates high singel digit or double digit..
more to worry i think has someone sitting on large amounts of citigroup shares their are somany around each human on earth could have 4 shares hehe
Anyone seen yahoo finance home page? The GBP/USD shows it is up almost 3,800%. Something is wrong.
ReplyDelete@Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou have a great sense of humor. Never lose it. I was simply writting about that the signs of the Black Monday in 1987 were there if you looked. At least in hindsight. BTW, how long have you been trading and who got you started?
@CBS,
look at Bloomberg.com. I have seen other misprints on Yahoo.
hi
ReplyDeletehm large traders reduced long pos alot in spmini..small traders got squeezed out of their shorts hm could be first signs of a correction coming..
in dollar index looks like large traders used bounce to increase long position another time..largest long pos since sep 2008 but sometimes such extremes can also be tops..hm iam asking myself why so many heavy bets on dollar from smart money do they know something..
@shirley
dont remember exactly around dot com hype first shares were cybertron..great company never earned one cent but managed for a long time to double share price every few weeks hehe
@ Allen,
ReplyDeletegreat company and never earned one cent!!!! Perhaps great for you when doubling,but not who had shares at bust!!!!
Thanks for the answer. I hope you don't get tired of my stupid statements as I am just beginning to trade this last 18 months. I picked a bad time to learn. Funny thing, I picked a lot of stocks that ran up big time (like ADY, FEED, IVN, NG, RINO) and only stuck with RINO because I got scared and doubted myself. Big misses. When I conquer my doubts I think I will do very well. I'm not giving up!!!
I made money in real estate and have been trying to figure out stocks since I am too nervous about RE right now even if other RE investors have made $ this year. One day, *G* will not be able to help and banks will flood market with houses, I think.
Hi everyone
ReplyDeleteHappy new year and merry chirstMas.
Wish eveyone a happy, rich and heathly life.
Thank you everyone.
I meet some Accident during travelling and did not manage to updAte my blog
for the past week. There is a lot of thing happen and lot of thing I need to cAtch up
Pred,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you. I hope you are well and recover from your accident 100% quickly.
When you have time, if possible, can you give opinion on silver? Will it go to 23, or will it go to 10? I am looking at svm for long play or zsl for short.
Thanks
pred, you were missed! Glad to hear you are well. merry christmas and happy new year.
ReplyDeletechris
hi preditor
ReplyDeletegood to hear ur ok..also a happy new year
preditor:
ReplyDeletegood that you are back
Bob G
thank you everyone ...
ReplyDeleteLook like we will see strong dollar for a while ...
soft commoditity is still good play , i still think soft commoditity will the main run..
Gold and silver is will need to do some research before update more
oil should consoildated at US$71.00 after a wild ride, should move forward to US$85.00 which i be my first range for profit taking ...
i will do more wrap up and do a news letter after new years ..
will be checking back still need to rest ....
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWow, I'm glad to hear from you. Was wondering if u were okay.
Merry Christmas and a very Happy, Healthy New Year!!!!
Oh, and Pred,
ReplyDeleteWhen you write about softs, could you be more specific? Wheat, corn, sugar, coffee, cotton, etc.?
Thanks,
Is good to hear from you again Pred.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about nat gas?
Happy new year for all of you !!
Andrès
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think the whole soft commoditites which all looking good to me ...
Coffee the world most popular beverage, corn go with energy and livestock.. which i expect live stock population to increase as the world demand expand again as the price depress in 2009 cause huge sluaghter ..
In short, when india and china start to turn to consumer world will have problem with commoditites,
any bad weather will put pressure on the output of the softcommoditites as the result will push the price... farming area world wide is not going to increase but reduce in the future ... so i will stick to the trend
@ Pred,
ReplyDeleteThank you.
You were sorely missed by all of us. I'm really sorry about your accident and pray you make full recovery soon.
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteRobert Kiyasaki had a great article about real estate. His first prediction is a great representation of why a person should not flip houses right now. Commercial RE is going to be a big problem too. Don't know how to play this in the equities market as SRS is being sued for not following the commercial RE index it was supposed to track. Talked to a Wachovia bank officer who handles REOs and he said the bank would have a lot of houses for sale in the spring. Also, spoke to a LA real estate attorney and he said the landlords are not evicting non-paying tenants because they couldn't find new tenants and it would make the properties look worse to have so many vacancies.
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/211091
@Allen,
You wrote that small traders were squeezed out of their short position in the SPminis. R U saying the large traders spiked prices up and then went short afterward?
Happy New Year to all.
I have done more research on refiners and Found earnings estimates.
ReplyDeleteThe best earnings est. seem to be SUN (2009 - $-.20; 2010 - $1.22 and
2011 - $1.45), FTO ( 2009 - $-.25, 2010 - $.84, 2011 - $1.45), TSO (
2009 -$-.16, 2010 - $.78, 2011 - $1.89)and CVI 2009 - $.78, 2010 -
$.92, 2011 - $1.10). I like the large increase in earnings estimates
over the next few years. VLO is not as strong for its market cap,
which surprised me.
CVI also sells nitrogen fertilizer - an ag play.
Any comments on refiners would be appreciated.
Thanks all.
OK, last post for a while. This is an interesting site that tracks specialist accumulation. They said specialists are in process of selling and they have a potential list of shorts for future purchases that I found interesting as some are shorting of banks (Commercial RE play). You can get emails from them if you sign up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bearfactsspecialistreport.com/Stock%20Reports.htm