Hi everyone don't really time, business and family time ..so I guess have to divide time...
In today issue. I would like focus my thought on trade protection this is serious and create unnesccesary inflation to economy and apply faster change trade structure.
what the USA government is trying to do bring the job back to USA but by doing this will only accelerate the inflation in Dollar economy. Which is more dangerous then jobless in USA .
The amount of dollar in the world economy have increase a a tremendous rate to make the situation worse, central bank around the world start to diversify away from dollar which result in additional dollar in the world economy
If US is planning to buy less from the world and do trade protection so other country will invest lesser in us bond and accumulate lesser dollar .... this dollar with low rate will then be inflate to commoditiy and stock and all assest class ... Technically there is just too much flat currency in the world economy to chase fewer goods...
A lot of county is watching the trade war between and this is not bode well for dollar ..
US cannot just increase tax because another country are willing to sell to US @ cheaper rate that is not how capitalise work ...
I heard alot of talk how stock and assest is overbrought and need correction ..but lot of people forget to realise that dollar is over printed.. there is just too much dollar ... be my guese if you think the dollar will rallly hard and all assest class will have hard correction. We will have one but the time is not now .. I think we have just enter a new inflation bull phrase.
I just forget my thought on one issue which is quite important ...... will be back ...
Ok got that thought back ...
Well , if the obama and US government will do what ever is take to stimulus the economy so I think if there is bad news on economy well... I think is buy that is because the government will inject more dollar into economy the we will see dollar inflation ... Election is coming so ... politician will do crazy suff to please and keep citizen happy ...
When is the best time to hit sell button .... when real good new emerge in the economy, the government start to raise interest rate ...
A thought before you hit your sell or short button, is selling equity and asset class holding for dollars really the best move at current cross road ?
For me any dollar rebound is a short opportunity and any dip in asset is a buy.
This week treasury auction will be different, this time equity and assest class will move up, dollar should be on weakness trend same as for the treasure bond
---------------------
What to expect this week ...
Well, Gold will establish 1100 - 1120 mark and Silver will Touch US$18.00..
Oil will Touch at least US$80.00 before this weekend. Althought there is significant weakness in Friday trading ..
Soft commoditity .... I suspect soft commodity just hit bottom in last week trading and should rally or rebound .. the world is not oversupply so I will not worry so much on the price.. will contines soft commoditiy ..
Still looking to short treasury .... maybe this week ...
I will extend commentary in the trading session.
Hope everyone trade will be grand this week ..
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hi preditor,
ReplyDeleteiam with u with most points.. to much money around...my play it save plan is also invest in stuff that u need to survive..stocks only commo related(at moment i have just oil)..no techs at moment there will be a great chance to buy stocks very cheap pes in near future next year i think..
started on friday buying corn back again(normaly i dont buy a sks that looks breaking)..large traders increased long positions in corn
wheat i dont like the large traders increased shorts again, will watch it this weak..
s&pmini futures seems another week large traders increased long positions..small traders increasing shorts *g*
hm iam not scared of dollar strenght but of euro weakness whats than happening..
Hi Preditor!
ReplyDeleteWhen is Treasury action?
/Daniel
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI spoke to a commercial RE attorney in Los Angeles. He said commercial property owners are letting tenants who aren't paying the rent stay in the building since they wouldn't get new tenants - looks worse if vacant. He expects 150 banks to close due to this latest mess in RE. Also, he said the FDIC is out of money and borrowing from the stronger banks. What a dismal mess!
Commodities look good this morning.
commercial re is really a disaster in the making, lots of stuff built only with incredibel leverage..
ReplyDeletehm high unemployment dont see were all this consumption should come..some malls will be emty..buisnesses cannot pay there rent and so on..
hm u want to own that stuff in countrys where consumption is relative low and they are at the beginning of the cycle..
i wouldnt touch it in england or usa for some years..europe i find it also to risky..
"We're laying you off because of the economy ... We can't rehire you until you start spending."
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteGood analysis. I don't know if you read Fressbie's article about banks, naked shorts and treasuries, but if true, wow! He said that traders are sometimes selling the treasury notes twice! And, telling the second buyer they lost the treasury notes.
Do you still see silver at 18.00 this week?
Hi everyone ...
ReplyDeleteI have not really read another people blog nowsaday ..... cause quite busy...... time is killing me... I have not being able to do daily for the past weeks ...
When I am abit free the opportunity have passes by to do quick trade...so my position will be stick to the trend
@Shirley
I see silver will touch atleast 18 by this weekend ...
Hi Daniel,
ReplyDeleteStill looking to short treasuries... still waiting ...
something still not right yet ... waiting ofr clearer signal ...
Chinese is refusing to let Yuan strength so the chinese will have to buy this week treasuries to have dollar strengthen ...
this is very conflict signal ...the end result will just create more flat currency as no one want a strong currency
which will bode well for equity and assest class
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteThe more bad news in the economy will be good for a bull .... i might be find weird that I write this ..
Why you might ask?
The more bad news in the economy the more politican and central bank around the world reluctan to remove the stimulus and easy money in the economy which will be good for a bull especially in commoditity for time to come
Pred,
ReplyDeleteThe reason I do not short treasuries is that RE is going into its worst three months seasonally - Nov, Dec and Jan. Usually interest rates go down during this time period. Last year treasuries bottomed at the end of Dec. so I am looking at that time frame to enter a position.
Good morning everyone..
ReplyDeleteI´m writing from Uruguay.
Congratulations.. excellent blog!!
What do you think about nat gas ?
Andrés
Hi Andres,
ReplyDeleteNat gas is a buy ... I think it have correction for the past week , and should be set for a rebound base on current trend
hi preditor
ReplyDeletelike always u were right with soft comos..was a great week so far...was very lucky could catch the whole move in corn from almost friday low.. sold it today maybe little do early..hm i expect some bounce from 400 than iam in again..
now iam ready to open some shorts on dax, but i get no chance everytime euwax setiment is bearish dax rises..when they go long i give it a small try..
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/euwax-sentiment
hm euro yen just at 135 if the pattern works a 4rd time than we could go alot higher 138 was perfekt short in past..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think it is wise for you tight stop if you are planning to short in Daxboth profit and lose ... I suspect this time the Dax will move up at a unbelieve level
If the Dax will hit 5700 this time, I think the Dax will move to a new high @ 5850 - 5900 is a possiible range ...
Athought Dow jone just hit new height for 2009, so I think will other stock index will do too ...
morning pred..
ReplyDeletehm seems like ordinary thursday running against weekly trend..
closed short position..
thinking hard where to catch corn again.. at moment fibonacci holds at 388..will watch it could go down to 380 25mva depends like always on dollar..
hm really seems like whole world wants to short with big leverage..often market than wants to fish there knockouts and stop losses
that would match with your theory of some blow off
Hey folks..almost all cash now. sold my gold/silver stocks and metals, waiting to re-enter on next dip. Still have 2 corn, and 2 wheat futures contracts open, just rolled them forward. Not seeing many opportunities right now so will wait for gold to retrsace back to 1060-1080. Thats the target zone for my next purchases
ReplyDeleteShirley -- cool tip on the treasuries. The long term US bonds are what we want to short. I will be buying TBT for my smaller account in January (depending on what happens). I want to let that position ride for several months. Also, my feeling is that commercial real estate will start to crack around then. I will be buying some DRV then as well - it is better than SRS b/c it tracks the whole DJ US REIT index, while SRS just the biggest REITS.
ReplyDeleteOG
Og,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tip on DRV. I made a little money on SRS last year but was disappointed it didn't really track the mess in RE at all.
There is a stock CVVZ, that is uplisting on Monday. Also, will be announcing earnings and the last half of the year is supposed to be best time of year for them. They should benefit from China infrastructure investment.
Also, HPJ, which is a competitor of CMTP just announced earnings and stock is up 40%. I think when CMTP announces earnings tomorrow, we could get a sizeable jump too, imho.
Hey, Allen,
there is a lot of currency talk on hms website in last two days.
I'm still hanging in there with NG and HL. Looking to sell soon.
@Pred,
ReplyDeleteBloomberg has an article about hedge funds buying wheat as an inflation hedge.
Maybe this is the start of the rise in ag commodities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=awgksiXxQits
Gold and silver stocks still not moving down too much even tho the metals are down today.
@shirley
ReplyDeletethx, have read it.. hm but i have stoped currencys at moment..not working anymore for me something has changed..dont know but have started losing money with last currency trades..
maybe we have seen it when they started putting money in..stocks dropped like a stone some soft commos lost not much ground..than they try to create all this bearish chartpatterns sks to scare buyers..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteOil has gone much lower based on Thursday's oil report. I wonder if it is a buy now???
I usually don't buy oil but I will look for a day trade opportunity. Any opinions????
Dollar strength is waning.....
Good trade to all :)
Shirley, I bought oil yesterday but i'm not feeling too good about it now. Stocks having a very difficult time getting over 1100. If market sells off a little, oil will move lower. Next week is opex so we may see some downside pressure and swings in the market.
ReplyDeleteOG
OG,
ReplyDeleteOil is a crazy commodity. Last summer, I shorted it because there seemed to be a gut and waited too long just to break even.
On a more positive note, I sold HL and NG. I'm about 50% in cash as I have JJG, RJA, DBA and MOO. Also, waiting for earnings on CMTP. I hope to cash that out today also.
@Pred, Hope everything is going well for you with family, business and trades :)
Have a great weekend to all.
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteGrains have found some strength - JJG (wheat, corn and soybeans).
hey pred,
ReplyDeleteWe are all very lucky to have someone as wise and intelligent as you analyzing the markets. I hope you post soon, can't wait to hear what you have to say.
thanks chris
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts regarding coffee and cotton?
Hello Preditor, How is it goin´? More and more people think that we have reversal coming this week in equities. Dollar rebound and weak equities. This is from technical point of view and sofar I got the picture that you do not trade from technical data. Would be nice to hear your opinion.
ReplyDeleteCheers
/Daniel
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeletehope everyone is well ..
I have sudden travelling schedule for emergency thing ...so got no time to respond to the blog ...
There is alot of thing unfold this week ... so I will try to gether my idea and sharew with you ...
I got spook by the idea if the world let yuan strengthen ... alot of thing will go wild ... I will to write tomoorow .. as my hand are still tight up ...
Just drop by to said hi ... and thank you for all comment and input in my blog ...I really appreciated ..
Gold rally spice up the juice .. but oil I am bit disapointed by the movement ...
Soft commoditiy is consoildating ... i think any dip is buy opportunity ...
I will input more .. later into the week ... once I got all my stuff organized..
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI am happy to hear that you manage o close your short intime on Dax.. :)
there will time to short ... sooner or later
Hi Daniel,
ReplyDeleteThis is a nervous market .... trader got spook easily ....
So be prepare for huge swing intra dy trading ...
Hi Shirley..
ReplyDeleteI am very bullish on soft commodity, just like I used to be a hard bull on equity ...
So ...if i have the money i will buy into any dip ... whole soft commoditity will move up in stength
OG,
ReplyDeleteI think and hope will do a fast catch up ...
as more of the commodity already move high or consoildating ..
Hi Chirs ...
ReplyDeleteThank you for your compliment ..
hi pred..
ReplyDeleteyour blow off setup seems working.. but now the good news from japan..strong yen could pressure heavy on stocks..than all that uncertenty usa china and options week..atleast i expect enough volatility to come out of every short with a small profit..closed my last long position in oil stocks today..
hm but looking at setiment euwax still small traders short like hell every day..in smp mini also..large traders reduced longs alittle..comercials long again..
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeletewhen do you think Gold will have its correction? Silver breakout today, i go Long Silver. I'm disappointed with Oil, how come doesn't rally ? I want to add more Gold & Silver position, but worry about sudden correction & Dollar go up... ? These PMetals markets are very dangerous, they can move up and down very wildly.
Anthony?
How high can gold go? I bought back in but im nervous b/c it turn fast. is anyone else long the gold miners at these levels? i am, but out by Wed. maybe.
ReplyDeleteOG
Hi OG ...
ReplyDeleteMy initail target is 1150 .... however...from strength of the movement might have to move up the target to 1180 - 1200 range or higher is now on card for short term but for long term ... well ... the price might move to aat least 1,500.00 ..
But my guess is as good as yours if you find the profit and comfortable with your gain, please don't hesitate to take your profit ...
All my precious metal gain impressive.. approxi 20% again on mine and precious metal ... but total overall gain will be about 35%
will look for opportunity to cash out .... will update in my blog ...
Oil is abit lag but should close up the gap ... althoght i was abit disapoinment but still have some faith .. let see if 80 will hold ...
targeting range 85 -95 ...
since last dipbuying u increased ur whole portfolio 35% again really impressive..
ReplyDeletewas a too big chicken last dipbuying stayed to much in cash..easier to stay more in cash in euro but feel pressure seeing prices rise also in euro gold getting finaly record highs in euro ..
hm seeing some signs of sentiment change today small traders are on long site on euwax..last week almost every day they were short..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteAs i have post yestersday, about Chinese Yuan... well ... we better be prepare for yuan strength in the distance future ... the greatest dollar unwind will be coming soon ..
Once Yuan are allow to gain in strenth or increase value that mean dollar is enter a full inflation mode ..
The Yuan increase in the distant fuure will have a huge impact and it huge then over brought market ..
ReplyDeletehi pred..
ReplyDeletehm getting tired fighting with trend..the yen strenght not plays out as expected the dax correction is to small to make the short a big winner..will close it if goes above 5800..my target was atleast 5750..
will set my next trys much higher
will use correction to buy some of my goldmining etf back..sold it at 1100 it hurts buying it more expensive back hehe..than will try to simply ignore the position for some time..
hm thats the question will the chinese really allow some yuan strenght..seems they are pretty happy to beat us in europe with their cheap exports..can obama force them somehow...
Allen ,
ReplyDeleteDon't blame on china,
China, may look strong but don't forget that china have the huge population and they are willing to work for cheap ...They are the one who bring down inflation ...
You should make some visit to china rural or countr side and see the living althought it is improve but it is still poor ..
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteBernanke Signals `Extended Period' May Be Even Longer as Joblessness Rises ..
So do you think the bull will also `Extended Period' May Be Even Longer as Joblessness Rises ..
Don't go short any market..except dollar
ReplyDeletehm helicopter ben again *G* seems this will never end thx for warning..
ReplyDeletehave seen a very interresting video, soros visit in a china university, publishing his great book alchemy of finance..
the head of the university arguing with soros..soros has his own economic school he says all schools are wrong that base their desicions on equilibrium models..a exeption in reallity, like in keynes theory fullemployment..
the interresting thing the director of the university used lot of austrian school arguments..if the head thinking that way than u know what they are teaching..and soon this people are in power or alredy are..but its always difficould to give something up that seems working..
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think dollar hyper inflation is now on card ...
Well,
ReplyDeleteGeorge soro is the master of speculator .... and he live in a world of investment and so his thought is worth gold mountain
But Preditor, Bernanke also said they would take measures so that dollar will keep its strength. Dont you think that matters?
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Hi daniel,
ReplyDeleteIf US really want a strong curency, then why obama visit China to request Yuan revalue ... ??
A juice for your thought ... Yuan is tight to dollar at a fix rate one of the main reason Dollar is holding up well is because of Yuan ...
Whole world increase US increase dollar and bond purchase is because of Yuan ... other central bank have to support dollar so that the Yuan will not fall in value and so that it will reduce the effect the competitive of the export ...
I will write more about this weekend ...
China is now underpressure on the currency value from around the world and the china might allow the yuan to increase somewhere next years..
ReplyDeleteWhen the china allow yuan, the world central bank will reduce the pressure of purchase dollar and bond to keep value of yuan in-check ... don't surprise if central bank are wiling to buy gold at this level ...
Interesting read
ReplyDeleteHehe..good post on HMS blog. I am shorting equities aswell at the moment. I have been patient and suffering for a while but once I get out I will take it more easy on the shorts.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Hi Daniel,
ReplyDeleteI have stop making call in S&P for quite time ... as I am not comfortable with the moving and swing ...quite nervous ...
I have turn to commodity for about 1-2 month now as i am very confident in this investment i will be able to sleep well as this are my mid to long term holding...
Tell me about it. Many sleepless nights mate. I believe in commodities aswell. I usually buy commodity stocks when I buy equities. But now I am in this trap. We will see how it plays out. Good luck with your trading.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Wheat jump todAY :) looking good
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSometime if you buy commoditites stock you caught in the stock sentiment ... so play the real future, oil and soft commodities... only miner stock which i have position together with the commodities itself ,,
ReplyDeleteyes, you are right. Sometimes or often I should say they do not really follow the commoditie price but instead the index but I play them instead because they are very volatile and I can have good return but again slepless nights. And also I can not buy futures with my broker but I plan to look into that later on.
ReplyDeleteCheers
Daniel
@daniel
ReplyDeletehm wouldnt say all is lost for shorts but alot of ifs around
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
if we manage to go below this 1,4850 ema25 levl not just pierce him..than they could start to trade down to 1,47..
but just working if yen continues to show strenght..
stocks may have priced in some future dollar weakness already than things could get hot again..short therm..
at moment it looks more like levl holds..
I think also some dollar weakness is priced into stocks but tomorrow housing starts macro. I think it will come out less than expected because housing starts tax credit was finished few weeks ago and then extended. Most people that wanted to build houses must have done it before the tax credit was finished. Anyways. Who knows how market interprets things anymore.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear you are back. I am adding more commodities too. I bought cotton yesterday, but missed a big jump yesterday in coffee.
Which commodities do you think will have the biggest jump in the next 30 days, 60 days and 6 months?
Since you see possible hyper-inflation, would it be better to buy silver now. I was waiting for a retracement.
Good trade to all.
The move in gold is very powerful. I still have a lot of risk on the table. Holding GDX and GDXJ right now - lot of each. Moving up stops as we go higher. Hard to guess the top of such a move, but it amazes me how many people are not playing gold and just watching stocks. I think the miners will outperform through January, but I want to take risk off the table if it goes up to 1160-1180. The move iin HL has been non stop if anyone has noticed...i took profit at 5.25 on a buy in a 4.20
ReplyDeleteI am still looking for opportunity to cash my mining stock
ReplyDeleteHi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteYou question hmmm is hard to answer or get 100% right ...
Technically the soft commodities, if there is a out break in whole soft commodities complex ....then we will see huge extend plantation in all area which ... you might think that soon there will be oversupply situation in all soft commoditites complex.... please make a pause your think here .... if the senerio come into play ...
Here is the juice ... there will be resource pressure like water ... so soya bean look very bullish to and all soft commoditites which used alot of water should be a good play..
We will some water problem like what india is facing cause of EL NINO weather which will cause more demage to commoditites supply ...
Thanks Pred,
ReplyDeleteSo I think you are saying to only buy soft commodities right now. I am glad I bought cotton as it uses a lot of water. Many farmers have not planted cotton in my area because corn uses a lot less water.
I think to round out my portfolio, I may buy HL again and GDXJ because PMs seems so strong. Is there any hope of pullback?
BTW, the anon's on HMS website are small-minded and perhaps they dislike that you are right so often. They don't have the confidence to pen their names and they abuse their host. HMS won't even put down his positions so much anymore and I don't blame him. HMS and others are decent people tho.
I play corn is because of livestock and energy trend ...
ReplyDeleteAnyway the whole commoditites complex will raise and rally in the distant future ... it is just like S&P back March
@ Shirley,
ReplyDeleteSorry i miss out the precious metal ...
Silver is a buy, it have beng a lag last week, I believe the silver will touch US$19.00 end of this week ...
HL again is too impressive ...don't accumulate at this price it is expensive when compare to the silver itself .... I believe the silver will be the main engine of the rally
About Anon ....i did not put his word in my mind .....cause
Thanks again Pred,
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting what you say about silver. Usually, it has been the miners who beat the metal itself. I will buy ETF, SLV. The plan then, is to keep silver for 6 months, then, I take it.
hi all..
ReplyDeleteso also bought back corn..didnt manage to get gold yesterday dawn dentist hehe..
will wait with more buying till tomorror maybe patterns continues thuerday running against weekly trend..
shorts cut at half knockout 5907 in dax use rest as hedge..
When do you plan on unloading your mine stock? Im thinking by friday.
ReplyDeletethank god..yen strenght helping my shorts out..have loaded more again will start cloasing them when 5750 not holds but thers chance we could hit 5680 than iam out..
ReplyDeleteI will be out for the today and tomorrow, but will check in from time to time to comment on your posting ...
ReplyDeleteA thought of before i leave , I found a new on he reuers
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5AI1HH20091119
I don;t think there US want a strong currency .
So the dollar should be on the long term downward trend at guadual pact
Allen,
ReplyDeleteGood trade ... I miss my daily trading ...I hope to do my daily trade next years ... right now too busy with buinsess
OG,
ReplyDeleteI will take my profit next week...i am suspecting a consolidation for this week , if my reading not wrong we will have a rally next week
lol deflation is still a thread read it..
ReplyDeletedeflation was always a big thread in times when sound money existet with value.. but now u can easy fight deflation as helicopter ben showed..the fight than against inflation will be incredibel hard...
after suffering hard from inflation when they decided in past to go back to a gold or commo link to currency than deflation strikes incredibel hard..
Geithner is getting grilled at Congressional meeting. Some want him to resign. Too bad if he did, we would get more of the same. Coffee down today. I hope to get at a little lower today.
ReplyDeletehm geithner, dont know how much power a secretary of tresury really has..to me looks more like he just trys to sell the things they are doing to press, and is sometimes send to china beging for money *G*
ReplyDeletehm all commos getting some hit today but the soybeans preditor talked about some days ago doing not that bad..
so out off all shorts until euro/dollar not trading under 1,4850 for some time iam not touching another..
Hi everyone ..
ReplyDeletethe soft commoditites and commodities ia recovering is recovering well :)
The oil is really testing my nerve..here :<
I see. I'm irritated by the underperformance of the miners. for example, as of this writing gld is up 4 dollar but junior miners index is down 1.5 percent still. I will be patient for some time as this plays out b/c I think the launch of the gdxj will boost share prices of its holdings quickly. Have mental stops only which carries its own set of risks, but the index is so volatile you have to set them loose anyways. I'm not happy with oil..its having too hard a time holding 80 and i wont play.-OG
ReplyDeleteI'm loaded with mine stock but want to buy silver. I'd love to get into silver at 18.00 but probably will have to wait some to do this. Pred, did you unload your silver? I sold mine last week when it was at 17.40. Its had quite a run but I have a hunch its not over. It was smart to take profits but now looking to reenter
ReplyDeleteAll my precious metal are still intact ...
ReplyDeleteI will cash out all position soon...today gold and silver price make me recall 2007 how gold rally?
we might be breaking new every week from now
Looking for the right opportunity to close all position ..
@OG,
ReplyDeleteThis is what i write for shirley yestersday
Preditor1976 said...
@ Shirley,
Sorry i miss out the precious metal ...
Silver is a buy, it have beng a lag last week, I believe the silver will touch US$19.00 end of this week ...
HL again is too impressive ...don't accumulate at this price it is expensive when compare to the silver itself .... I believe the silver will be the main engine of the rally
About Anon ....i did not put his word in my mind .....cause
November 18, 2009 1:33 AM
Are you still believing in a consolidation for this week , and a rally next one ?
ReplyDeleteThank you
Andrès
Hi Andrea,
ReplyDeleteYes .. i believe the commoditity consolidating ... I think the fund shifting into commoidities ... i anticipate commoditites to rally next week ...
Please note that all my read is commodities reading , more toward gold and soft commodites and oil ...
I have stop make call on equity index reading ...
Let how the trading unfold today ...
I think the equity should pare lose and end higher today .
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteSeveral interesting points today.....Dow went down and gold, oil was going up at same time. Still hate buying oil. Also,I bought coffee today at dip, hope to buy sugar. The few stocks I still own, I hope to sell next week.
Pred, when you say you want to cash out all positions, are you referring to the miners or are you selling everything,the commodities as well???
BTW, Jim Rogers had on his blog that commodities will do better than miners too. Of course, he is promoting commodities as he has the index fund, but it also agrees with Pred.
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteI believe the commoditites is at break point and will rally hard... i expecting to see new high every week from now .
@ some point ... I will cash out all position ... I will let you all know when I feel the time come ..
Hey pred/shirley - i'm excited for end of year. Added back silver yesterday. Silver strong now when dollar is up. Could move like gold did, lets hope for big gains!
ReplyDeleteHello Preditor, check out what Freesbee wrote on his own blog, he post the link on HMS blog. check the post " Decent day. Closed some shorts" on HMS blog of november 20th, the third post by Freesbee. Maybe it could interest you.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
hi preditor..
ReplyDeletehm thinking about starting some sort of butterfly swing long gold/silver short dax
this action in bond markets dont know whats going on there..
if dax takes out new highes i should win more in gold/silver than losing on shorts..
if we go down shorts should earn more than longs in gold and silver losing..
if dax takes out new highs and gold and silver going down like thers no tomorror i would have lost big time..seeing that as smallest risk
at moment just 5% long corn, rest cash in euro..maybe playing short side with short dax etf long in gold and silver iam unsure yet miners could go down with markets also..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDelete@OG, I also added silver big this time. When I cash out stocks, will add more. Bought sugar this week too as many reports state that inventory is down, farmers in India won't sell their sugar and waiting for better $, and production ramp up is slow. Check out articles on Dailyfutures.com. Already have big position in JJG.
@Pred,
PLEASE do tell us when you cash out as I am terrible at timing. I can't tell you how many times this year I gave up on a stock then checked it out later and found it went up big time. To the positive, I am gaining confidence.
@Daniel, If you have not read Fresbee's article about the fed, treasuries, banks and etc. - it's a long article and can't remember its title, but reads almost like the outline of a novel - couldn't have better intrigue, lies and deception, you might look it over.
Allen, if markets go down. Be sure that mining-stocks will hurt the most. Even if commodities would not move that much.
ReplyDeleteShirley, I might have a look at it. He has a talent for writing.
Cheers
Daniel
Folks - I have some ideas. My worry is that mine stocks are still lagging badly. This will continue until gold reaches more "mania" laden stage. But i think the overall market will remain firm up to end of year, so i do not think they will crash.My decision is whether to convert all of my miners to to physical leveraged silver, so i dont get shorted if thr miners underperform and silver rallies. This week will decide.
ReplyDelete