Hi everyone,
It was quite sometime since my last newsletter which sometime some misfortunate event will sudden strike without notice.. it was lucky for me to have tradegy pass by .. I realised one thing which we should not forget .. your real life , family, and what we want to do together with our family ....
should treasure every moment. After this event, i will spent more time with family and friend, enjoy every moment of out life till it last ... ok some long for the soap story let jump in to the letter.
While look like the dollar is gaining real momentum on it strength which should last for a while but not a trend which there is line draw between .
The main reason 1) the short are taking profit, USA oversea company is bring profit back to USA.
The weak dollar is still intact so take note of this ..
China send a message to the world that they will NOT yield world presuure of revalue yuan, this is another factor which will support dollar in short to medium as yuan is tight to dollar.
what is this imply, well, the other central will be force to support dollar in order to support yuan in order to reduce yuan competitive edge in export market. Which mean that they will too buy more dollar to do that . which will cool down short term inflation in dollar.
That is why gold and silver see a short term pressure in price and should under some more pressure. Should accumulate when price is depressed.
I still see some presuure in the gold and silver price..
Gold Strong support line US$1070.00 and silver US$16.45 .
Gold and precious metal is still upward trend should accumulate on weakness...
============
Prepare to short equities market ...
After a strong run in 2009, will expect some meaningful correction in the market which is long due ... I will start put short in S&P targeting 1280 - 1300 range.
But i anticipate the market will try to confuse the trend with strong dollar and strong equities at the same time ... have to cautious if you are adding equities at this point .
================
Oil and Nat gas
For oil and Nat gas, i would like to talk oil first, the cheap oil field is depleting and it is only going to cost us much cost to produce a barrel of oil the it used to ..
So the the oil is going to get expensive in regardless to the strength of dollar. we will see some up and down but this is the trend i see.
Nat Gas, cheap oil field depletine and seem like the world is turning to Nat Gas for the source of energy and this is the trend ... technically world is going to consume more energy then ever.
Well , we might see Nat gas gain some stength from here but any going to play or buy should be short term holding as the price have jump more then 40% from US$4.36 ...
Oil target need to do catch up so i believe US$85.00 should touch this time.
===================
Soft commodities
It is the investment of 2010, El niyo weather will surely pressure to soft commoditites output, i expect soft coommoditites to make a good run and make huge profit from these investment.
China and india, will consume more then ever at the same the bad weather will cause problem to the commoditites out in the homeland.. I will prepare for the rally in soft commoditites.
Hope everyone will have a fantastic hoilday and a every happy news years.
see you on Monday ..
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Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteRegarding tragedy, you are wise to learn from this - As the saying goes, at the end of life "No one said they wished they spent more time at the office".
----------------------
Here's an interesting website on softs:
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/11/widespread-drought-in-asia-tied-to-el.html
It seems that Asia has been hit the hardest so far as the prices of sugar, palm oil, tea and rice have risen a lot.
Also, Marc Faber wrote in his newletter that wheat should go up.
I'm in the process of trying to determine which softs will rise the most this year. Because it seems to me that Asia is the hardest hit so far, and coffee hasn't gone up that much yet, I think coffee may be one of them. Then, cows, because many cows were slaughtered. Third, wheat, because Australia has wheat crops. Would be interested in others thoughts on which softs are the best investment.
Good trading to all. :)
hi
ReplyDeletewhich is the best good question, hm cot reports can give us some hints which one is the cheapest,if that one will outperform the others is another question, if u look at the short positions of commercials if the beleave price is low the have no ore small short positions..maybe faber paying also some attention to the reports in wheat u see commercials are long..hm large traders are short but they can get squeezed big time if short positions are at record levls..like seen in nat gas last year and also wheat..commercials cannot get squeezed on their shorts..
i try to not shoot to many bullets to early this year think will be lot of great chances to come all kinds of possibel credit default and panic in the air...iam happy with corn was lot of worry pos in dec but now starting to move in right direction again*G*..comm are short but not jet record levls so maybe 450 is possibel..
coffee i would like to see some reducing of short positions from commercials..
the link u postet is also interresting specialist action..hm but i dont see shorts of large traders in stocks cot rep shows just large profittaking..but is laaging this report
like preditor warned last year i would still be carefull with shorts this rising prices could attract lot of buying..new headline in news..
Hi Allen and Shirley
ReplyDeletelet not forget that dollar is not the only carry trade currency, we still have yen and pound sterling so the dollar strength might not cause a huge sell off but the market will go up for while. But keep in mind that , the s&p or the equities market it due for correction. Which I think it is about time now.
bought FAZ and SPXU for swing trade will hold and hope to exit Th or F. I think W emp may cause slight pullback in SP, Financials.
ReplyDeleteI have been very cautious too, as you can read from my posts. So cautious that I have mostly cash. Too bad as the stocks I would have bought were SUN, FTO, TSO and CVI. Also, interested in TRLG. Will buy at some point, (but not today) as earnings disappointed in Nov. and I think they were overly punished. Also, see gold and silver shining today.
ReplyDeleteNew Year Resolutions:
I evaluated my purchases last year and found that the ones I had the most convictions about did very well.....without me as I sold too soon due to fear. That is what I want to conquer in 2010.
Also, plan to evaluate stocks like RIMM that have earnings disappointments (last year)but are overly punished. I thought about buying that one too but didn't. Will be aggressive when others are fearful and fearful when others are aggressive, like today. So I agree with Allen - opportunities to come, but not today.
what a day almost all worked out..saw early euro/dollar 0,5 euro/gbp laaging at 0,1 went long euro/gbp intraday..could catch some points in dax intraday..oil swing start to explode..miners rallying..ok had to give some profit back on short euro/usd swing the chart looks now not so ok for that trade anymore, dont like this higher high higher low on chart..maybe we getting bigger bounce from euro...
ReplyDeleteAllen,
ReplyDeleteHave you an opinion on SOL CSIQ JASO LDK SOLF STP TSL YGE
Thanks
hi cbs
ReplyDeletehm iam from europe and not a good stockpicker..but timing is everything u can have the best stock in world if u buy it at wrong time u end up suffering..
at moment i have some long pos but just less than 20% other in cash euros..hm u bought faz
a great help for me in daily action is
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/euwax-sentiment
so u can better time shorts the idea behind is looking at extrem positions if all are long who can buy noone so market goes down same when all are short like most time in dec market goes up..dont know where u find something like that for sp is like put call ratio...
Thanks for reply.
ReplyDeleteCBS,
ReplyDeleteI am in the process of studying this link but so far they look good. They track what the specialists are accumulating. I signed up for their master email list, and on Sunday, they sent me an email - recommended buying TNA and FAS at open Monday, if the market was up. So far, this was a good call and also, they will write when to close the positions. Right now, I'm tracking their success rate and trying to figure their logic so I didn't open a position.
http://www.bearfactsspecialistreport.com/
@Pred,
When you get a chance could you update your trading status. Also, would be interested to know when you would be a good entry point for softs.
Thanks.
@Allen,
Good calls on currencies yesterday. Interested to know what you are thinking regarding dollar weakness and s & p weakness at same time.
TRLG has now gotten an analyst upgrade and up 9%. Between refiners and this, I am adding another new year resolution and not try too hard to time the bottom.
ReplyDeleteHi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI enter soft commoditites @ early stage of the rally ..
So my position in soft commoditites is doing quite well....
I am starting to put bear flag on equities ...
The different between comodities and equites... stock trade base on speculative news but comodities trade base on demand and supply ...
@Pred,
ReplyDeleteI also think equities are declining soon. Regarding softs and commodities, are you saying then that you would wait for a correction if you were me?
I also found an ag stock, SIAF. This looks tempting to me. They sell at 6.4x earnings. Seems they have good growth potential too.
cot report has an update the positions in currencys getting more and more extreme..hmpf and i cut the euro shorts yesterday hehe large traders are long dollar its almost out of charts bets against euros also increased again..hm 2 possibilitys theirs a big squeeze coming ore the win again and push euro back into stoneage..*G*
ReplyDelete@shirly
hard to guess whats going on..eaven vs strong yen market goes up
think preditor is right but hard to guess when its gonna happen.. but i dont like taking actions bevor something happens u could end up on shorts and market wants to rally another 100points..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI'm with you, Allen, will wait a while to short markets. But those $ longs may be another sign of the coming decline in equities.
I have been thinking of going into futures and signing up on Interactive Traders. Anyone use this platform and are their commissions really only $1.00 per 100 shares traded? Or is there a gimmack? See how we investors are a suspicious type. :)
Hey, SIAC went up 25,000% last year. No kidding. I am going to give you the link for this company's presentation:
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/common/images/storyimages/122209_SIAF_presentation.pdf
Will buy probably after market corrections.
My target to short S&P indexis about 1280 - 1300 range .. and Banking sector.. this is the two place where the major short will be.
ReplyDeleteBut if the sentiment change fast i might enter short eaelier then my target ..
@ Allen, i believe the market need correction like i write in my last years news letter, the large player have accumulate huge position in the stock market so i think they will used the good news to cash out the position cause it is easier to do when every body think it is safe to accumulatie stock at this level which is already long in overbrought territory
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI have found a website for undervalued stocks. The reason I am posting it to the website is that of their 30 "geo-special" stocks, I own or owned last year 7 of them. I will buy some of them too at some point and keep them this time.
http://geoinvesting.com/
Looks like he is back. I basically held onto my gold and silver holdings through december, kinda looking at this as a short term investment up to april i guess. I think they will rebound. A lot of predictors are talking about a dollar rally later this year, after the s and p rises to 1300, b/c the dollar is undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis against euro and yen. see byron wiens 10 surprises for 2010 (google that).
ReplyDeleteHi OG, interesting prediction... i agree with him 50%
ReplyDeleteI prefer Doll prediction, he is more classic in my opinion http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6054KA20100106.
But this years no one predict where the S&P index will be ... so it will be tricky from here.
unlike last years prediction
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/01/byron-wien-ten-surprises-for-2009.html
hi sherly
ReplyDeleteyes this longs in dollar could be a sign but currencys are very tricky after that big move normaly some retracement coming if u look at daily chart euro/dollar
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
euro/dollar just managed to touch ema12 they could time their big attack at ema26 or to really fool everybody at ema52 the crossing of such important levls always create big buy or sell signals for trendfollowing crowd
at the moment iam back to basics just technicaly looking at a hourly chart every crossing of ema52 in hourly creates shortterm buy or sell signal if u wait for successfull retest u can get easy 80% successfull currency trades and helps u also to time ur shortterm como trades when to buy when to sell..
hi
ReplyDeletebought some coffee hope iam not running in a false breakout..commercials reduced some of hedging but not that much for a clear signal maybe after watching it that long i cannot watch the rising prices hehe
Allen, Thanks again for last response to my questions. Here is one more if you would be kind enough to say.
ReplyDeleteI know a futures broker who is recommending RBOB unleaded gas Jan contract and sell May. If
Price of gas goes up 15 cents, 15k = 41K. He tells me it has "worked" every year for the last 10 years. Any thoughts,
hi cbs
ReplyDeletehm i know nothing about rbob cannot judge if this straddle could work, but i heard rogers a few days ago he continues saying he has not a singel short position in stocks or commos at moment..
Thanks!
ReplyDeletefunny thing on friday i almost let the coffee drop on the keyboard the moment when job numbers surprised big squeeze in euro/dollar, had no stop in place had taken some profit on way down and forgotten to place new one..hehe same time dax making low of the day..
ReplyDeletehm large traders increased long pos will continue next week with buying every dip in dax intraday..also planning to increase coffee..hope to see 430 in corn next week and 1150 in gold
but still tricky now it looks like dollar starts to bounce until another bad news from europe hits market..should have expected this wild movements in currencys is always the same when extreme position are reached think more is ahead
basically smart money is still short yen,short euro,long dollar, long aussie dollar
HaHa Allen,
ReplyDeleteU have coffee on your mind. It's doing well too as it is up to over $145 right now as I write. But, long dollar getting hurt. Large traders getting squeezed.
Last week was good for me even with the missed opportunities. All of my stocks went up.
@Pred,
Hope your family continues to do well.
Hope everyone has a great week.
Hi allen,
ReplyDeletesince you are the expert in COT readings. I got the following data on silver. How would you interpret it?
type / last wk (Long:Short) / this wk (L:S)
Large speculators / 35%:2% / 35%:4%
Small speculators / 25%:11% / 26%;11%
Commercial / 22%:69% / 21%:67%
offsetting spreads??? / 18%:18% / 18%:18%
The total long speculators (both large and small) outnumber the shorts 61% long to 15% short (as of January 5).
hi sherly
ReplyDeleteu were more brave keeping ur longs than i was late dec great u get ur reward..
opportunities come and go iam sure they try all to scare people again out of value invest and try to sell them their trash..
preditor again was right with his shortterm buttoms in gold and silver..incredibel
but their are enough wild cards to play out their against euro greek,spain,ukrain,hungary,mabe austria and so on.. hard to beleave for me that the will really end up getting a big loss..question is when they start with their fear game..
@mambo
hm expert no, i only try to find major changes and it helps me to fight my own fear if a price goes down for some time,and u want to buy u are very lonly and 1000 reasons come to ur mind why u should not buy..opposite if price is high its very difficould not to buy all people are buying humans feal happy in the horde..
but the reports will not help u to find the answers if in a few weeks we are at 20dollar sibler or back at 17..
all we know is all fiat money is weak..to fight the crisis they will probably continue to paper over everything around the world so my thinking is u cannot affort having no gold or silber or some comos or energy play..so i always have some of the stuff but also always enough cash to add to position when i think fear is ruling and sell some of the stuff when greed is ruling..and i hope iam next time when 17 is reached smart enough to buy some
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteI kept those particular stocks because I couldn't bear to sell them and wonder of wonders, they worked out. Also, anyone who followed me into SIAF should be smiling right now. It's up 15% today.
Hi Allen, my main fear on silver is the large shorts from commercial side at 67% although it was 69% last week. So can we say the rally of silver last week may came from some short squeeze?
ReplyDeleteShirley,
I noticed you are trading in OTC stocks & I have heard from people to avoid such stocks. Can you educate me if is safe enough? I mean what are the real dangers in such stocks?
hi mambo
ReplyDeletehm commercials in comos are the ones that own or will own the stuff they cannot get squeezed..the just trade to hedge look at timingcharts u always will find record short positions from them near tops..when the think price is low the have almost no shorts every como is different in some commercials eaven go long but never in silver they just reduce their hedjing at lows..
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
cannot link silver but u can look there silver a few years back and positions of commercials
hm bought the pullback in dax with lot of fear..hope we score no new low..
hm preditor du u know whats going on in softs wheat and corn getting destroyed have sold my coffee to save atleast a small profit
ReplyDelete@Mambo,
ReplyDeleteI want to qualify that I havn't traded stocks for very long, but took a risk in buying this OTC stock. I looked at their presentation, which I gave a link to last week. liked what I saw and they are planning to uplist ASAP. Also, they go with the theme of Agriculture which Pred and others like for 2010.
I'm also big on MDM. They have a joint venture with DeBeers to develop a diamond mine in Canada. Most diamond mines are depleting and it takes about 15 years to get one ramped up for production. Three very rich men have large stakes in the mine - I forgot their names, but you can do your own research, if interested. There are very few diamond mines anywhere in the world that are getting developed right now. Recently, they diluted their shares to get more cash, so they shouldn't be doing that again any time soon. I was lucky, for once, to jump out before the dilution, and re-entered at 2.16.
Would not buy anything right now, as Pred is thinking of shorting the market right now.
ReplyDeleteAllen and Shirley, thanks for your sharing. I will research on your ideas. :)
ReplyDeleteWow! Came home late and found a sea of red on my trade account. Seems like almost all commos did poorly.
ReplyDeleteAllen, you can do all the homework in the world, but it seems that one day news says there is a shortage of food and then, that evening there is too much food. Unless you go out to the countryside and look, who knows? Look at orange juice. Up 7% one day and down 12% the next day. Now, orange juice is rallying again. I think orange juice prices are going even higher because you can't have that many days of freezing temps (in Florida)on orange trees w/o significant losses.
hehe shirley i know what u mean but every pricedrop is also a new chance, i also got hit with corn and now back around 370 where i started hehe...but always took some profit bought back some..
ReplyDeletebought today carefully some corn and wheat iam usually always a little to soon but thinking some hedgefunds took alot of profit basically all the pos the have droped yesterday big times they are in gold,silber,and the softs gold droped but euro/dollar hasnt moved yet
corn now just 10% from last years lows thats my downside and at 300dollar their comes the payment for the farmers to keep their corn
hm but also saving enought bullets to shoot if they really manage to get euro down to knees dont know what than happens to comos strong dollar isnt that good for them..
would be interesting what preditor is doing..
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteAnd, just to prove the point I made last night, Jim Rogers talks up the fundamentals of agriculture. So, what is it???? Feast or famine? I have been expecting a big run in Ag for 2 years because Jim Rogers is talking about the low levels of food inventory and yet, we get these low prices and supposed oversupply. I am weary - must mean it is ready to breakout.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2010/01/where-attractive-fundamentals-are.html
hehe i know whats rogers talking but u can really be sure the minit u give up on them the explode.. like i sold my coffee and now iam watching it going higher..
ReplyDeletehm ok today euro/dollar bounced back near 1,46 their ema52 in daily chart..big support/resistance levl
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
hm but still strong euro.. get we rally one of biggest short squeezes in history or can they turn things around much time is not left when 2 or 3 daily cloase abouve that levl are made they get big trouble..think all the major investment banks jumped on that strong dollar train..will be exciting whats happening than hehe
Okay everyone,
ReplyDeleteThis is my prediction, (Don't rely on it too much) but here it is:
On Friday JP Morgan will outperform and also, the rest of the banks next week. Then, it will be time to short the market.
Would be interested in everyone else's ideas.
Ok you guys, Allen, Pred, a few others write, but we want a good group effort. And no one is probably more green at this than me.
Recently, I linked Robert Kiosaki's article about mortgage resets on interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages which will result in higher mortgage payments. This should cause another wave of mortgage defaults. Here is another article in Bloomberg about an expected increase in defaults.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avunOgrdEx_g
John Layfield (husband of bank analyst, Meredith Whitney)recently recommended on Fox News to buy a loan processing company, LPS, which handles the paperwork for the banks when they foreclose on a mortgage. I have not bought this company, but I might at some point.
hi sherley
ReplyDeletehm somehow i think all expecting dollar strenght, today was great to watch a few minits after euro/dollar managed to break ema52 to upside corn 3 oder 4 dollar up after break to downside to lost their gains in a secound..
hm i continue whats working buying dips in dax intraday..
we must look for suprises to get a hint when to act..today as exampel yen come down big time market reacted somewhat but all controlled and turned bullish why look at chart..
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurjpy/60/
yen stoped at support was strong enough everybody thinks yen is bouncing tomorror nice upday, like everybody thinking banks can only show good numbers they hide their losses again..
somewhere in all this wildcards lies the answer when to short..but it takes alot to break this market..i know faber turned bearish but he was bearish in july i think than in november hm
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteI really don't how to follow all the signs you speak about, but I'm starting to get a sense of how the currencies give an early signal. Thanks for giving hints after the fact.
Hope Pred has another analysis soon too.
I have a small line on FAS and INTC. Hope my gamble pays - and I know it really is a gamble.
Thanks for giving hints after the fact
ReplyDeletehm thats the way i dont know whats yen doing tomorror the only time i have a bigger chance than throing a coin is reacting to facts..if tomorror theirs a rebreak of that big resistance level i take position, in which crossing i dont know for sure maybe better in usd/yen crossing..dont know today for sure if i trade yen look for a market that has a clear direktion scoring higher highs higher lows or opposite...for larger swing trades take a daily chart and same ema52..
for euro/usd their a strong support 1,4463 better to wait there for one or to hourly cloase than react..take a minifuture i use somewhat 50-60 levrege to train just a small sum or try it with papertrading the difficould thing is filtering false signals out..better not try to trade currencys on margin try to give gap risk back to banks..
hm yen broke his levels euro also iam short euro/dollar target last low 1,4240 my buying levl in dax is target of abc correction 8860
ReplyDeleteHey Allen,
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting anything about currencies! I'm learning from you how they work. And, while I'm at it, do u think the correction is now or do u think its just one or two down days?
BTW, gambling is a bad idea. Even tho INTC and JPM beat the street, the stocks went down.
Thanks, and good trading.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteToday I have a sea of red. That has happened twice this week. I decided to buy today as every time my stomach hurts and I buy, it comes out well. We'll see if my 'stomach trend' continues.
On a bright note, SIAF is hot. They are in cattle and they want to promote themselves. They have cash and their govt is backing them. See the following article:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Heng-Sing-Tai-Agriculture-bw-1864964853.html?x=0&.v=1
Wish I had bought at the pullback of $1.45 earlier.
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI have a futures broker who trades the RB unleaded gas contract. Buy Feb, Mar, or April, sell June. The trend is a rally every year Jan to June. If you know any futures brokers, you might run it by them. I have not done it, but I am tempted to give it a shot.
Allen, What do you think about short GBP/USD,JPY,EURO? What would be the best vehicle to play this trade. I am looking at GBP top at 1.63 today or tomorrow, then short.
Am I crazy?
@CBS,
ReplyDeleteWhat personal research have you done on the contract? If you are being told you will triple your money in just a few months, and you don't know the trade, be very careful. Usually, you must have lots of expertise to make money like that.
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteHere it is again...After Jim Roger article, here are another group of articles - one saying GS thinks wheat prices are declining more. At the bottom of the article there are references for other articles regarding corn and wheat.
What are your thoughts?
Pred and Allen, how can someone separate fact from fiction?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOpps, here is the post for the wheat article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-price-poised-for-further-fall-says-goldman--1216.html
hi shirley
ReplyDeleteyes the charts for wheat and corn now look horribel 2 day breakaway gaps and so on..i was to early with buying some wheat like always hehe..this analyses hm u can look back and find the same stuff for nat gas when it traded 2,5 or 3 dollar they need to create lots of volatility otherwise no big profits could be made when prices run flat..but like we said earlier this year is important not to shoot to many bullets to fast incredibel big chances will come..
@cbs
hm gbp/usd i find a boring pair i know everybody has his pair he watches the most and feels the best trading this but i would n ot put two funding currencys against each other..think time o f easy money in currencys is gone like it was long time last year just short dollar..hm i played pound most time against euro...but try not to guess when reversal should be it could save u lots of money if u really wait for a clear signal on the charts,one or two hourly cloase crossing a ema52 in daily or hourly..
hi all
ReplyDeletetook some profit from short euro/usd rest of position i keep until it manages to stay above ema52 in hourly for at least 2hours or another shortsquezze comes..dax long yesterday took some profit today got stoped out with rest of pos..
really tricky today think will do nothing to dangerous to lose money now..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed with your cool right now. Well, we have a new indicator---my stomach. On Friday my stomach hurt and sure enough the next day the market went up. I'm not used to the market gyrations - ugh, specialists!
If I had a futures account right now, I would buy wheat and corn. I decided I wasn't experienced enough for interactive traders, but would like to open an account to trade paper for a while and maybe a very small amt to trade sp mini. Allen, are there any you would recommend?
Good luck to everyone. :)
@Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou have said there will be incredible bargains later this year. Are you thinking about something in particular?
Also, I found a webiste called e-mini watch that I thought you might like:
http://emini-watch.com/search-by-date/
hehe cool, not anymore after taking all that ovvernight risk i have nothing from dax rally hehe got stoped out...
ReplyDeleteAllen,
ReplyDeleteMay be this will help:
I had coffee with an old cattle rancher this weekend. He said the prices of corn, wheat, and cattle are going up. The #$%^ with GS.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletethx 4 links, todays mood is better *G*, yes corn and wheat hurts should have known better a gap if getting not cloased after 2 days showing strong trend 2daybreakaway gap every newbie knows this *G*..catching a falling price is always difficould..and iam always to early hehe
short euro usd works great hedges somewhat the red numbers in wheat and corn..thinking hard what to do next should i switch shorting highs or continue going long at lows..but its still a bull market hm..maybe in march with exit of fed mortage buying and a possibel rise of long interest rates but hard to guess what can break this market..
always looking at gold with mixed feelings if it goes up ok nice for my miners.. if down also good want to increase my armageddon hedje with buying more physical gold but hope on the sesonality of gold normaly in summer it gets the cheapest..
hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteGet ready for the gold crash!
Hi shirley and everyone.
ReplyDeleteSoft commodity did not go as i expect, and close out my position .. with small again (agreedy sometime will cause you fortunate)..
Sudden revised in china policy will have some deflation effect on the economy
But i was abit luck on my oil and gold did manage to close all position before the sell off. sell my oil @ 80.20 and gold 1143, silver @ 18.5
The unexpect event from China really caught me off guard.. But i did manage to short S&P.. @ 1125 ... which got a good run for this one..
Dollar regain steength with momentum like i have anticioated
This years investment will more tought then last years..
I consider last years is investment honey moon...
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI know you have had family situations, but could you please make a quick update of your positions as you take them. I am a newbie and do not have confidence in myself. That doesn't mean I am totally depending on you and will follow you blindly. It just means honestly that I need confirmation in my thoughts. I read HMS site, but they are hour by hour people so it is confusing. I have said on this site I thought the market would go down soon, but I just didn't have the confidence to act.
Hi Allen,
You said a newbie knows if gap isn't filled in a few days that means a breakaway. I'm learning terms and still so new I didn't know that. I would have bought wheat and corn if I had an account. Frankly, I still wonder if it is a buy now. There is still an El Nino weather pattern.
BTW, orange juice has been on an uptrend even with $ strength. I live in CA and know that orange trees can't take many days of freezing temps. Oranges, once frozen, will dry out inside and what juice is left is very bitter. Those experts on TV played it cool so they could get their own $ in position. Cattle prices are on an uptrend because the dairy cattle buyout plan has ended.
SIAF is strong. I sold at $1.65 and bought back at $1.52. Still, not that nimble and should have known to sell a few days earlier. May also have bought back too soon. Will buy more later.
Anyone have a target for the correction? Is there still an opportunity to short sp or is it too risky now? When is softs, silver and gold a buy again?
Just guessing, gold wont be a buy for another year, look for the price at 900 to 1000 this time next year. there are alot soveriegn debt problems on the frontier and they need to be solved. After this you will see US dollar dive and gold soar. just my thinking, but gold is a excellent short at 1100.
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm what a turnaround obama comes out with volkner than that china thing bernanke in question and so on..
i thought big chances to get things cheap this year will come and its good to save some bullets but what a fast change of events also caught me buy suprise..
hm iam not that terribel invested 20% but the things that i have dont look good at moment..no question it hurts i didnt manage to come out everywhere and also bought some..
short euro/dollar have cloased pos will wait next week to open again things are not that clear could be some retracement coming iam ready to open shorts on euro again next week..
corn hm usually when commercials go long we are near bottom the reduced their shorts but arent long yet hope pred give us some hints when to accumulate iam always to early with buying..
wheat 500 is important levl if cannot be defendet we can go back to sep lows..but positions their are very extreme u can look at timingcharts..i mean that record short interest..this thing is a timebomb remember my words maybe not next or in two weaks but when lot of people are caught on shorts there its always the same hehe..
hmpf i hate it how to play dax now daily.. iam not good in looking for daily highs and go short..
@chris
hm gold is tricky when fear goes around in eu with euro losing value where should people go stocks go down at moment and so on will they really go back into sovereign debt..dont know my choice is gold also china just waiting for cheap gold..iam afraid of shorting gold..sure now the deflation card is played again but still on the long run the one that bets on inflation will win i think..under 1000 iam buying..
in a way thats partly my view, i will definitely accumulate under 1000. But these crisis ahead of us will create a short term demand for the $. Also helicopter ben may not get reelected which i think will most likely be positive for $, depending on replacement. So the next 6 to 12 months should be interesting.
ReplyDeletei think the reality of everything i've read so far is that most you guys are short term to medium term traders. So in short, gold would be a nice play considering....
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone.
ReplyDeleteSorry for not very active in updating position.
shirley, I will close my short in S&P today trading seesion @ some long ..
Closing short position in S&P @ 1089 - 1086 range and put some long range from 1085 - 1088.
I think there will be some rebounding equity in the next two trading session or this week trading seesion .
For gold(or precious metal), i think the gold and silver is crash proof... strong defend line is 1075 for gold and 16.75 for silver
should accumulate while the price underpressure .. if the defend fail below 1065 - 1070, close your long position and add some short.. the ultimun support line for gold is 1040 - 1045 ...
I hear that china is building large oil storage facilities which will come online soon...
which should used this oil sell off as opportuity to accumulate at low level.
Chris..
ReplyDeleteI think Ben, will get re-elected... so ... don't go and short in full force..
hi pred
ReplyDeletelooks like this stupid pattern continues and i was first time to scared last week friday to buy that big dip in dax monday is always bullish hehe
hm long euro/yen pair creating some buying signals will wait a hour or two if no false brakeout this pair has also moved 7yen in few days against euro will try to play their some bounce..
also thinking like u could be some retracement and than in middle of weak continue of selloff hm for starting shorts need more distance to the new lows i think
Hi allen,
ReplyDeleteStep by step ..
Good news sell,
bad news buy ...
hehe i now iam ahead of myself, dax broke downwardtrenchel to downside hm my plan was starting first pos shorts at the lower boundary of that downward trendchannel in dax around 5775 could take some time to get there my secound level is if really reached 5850 , reduced my leverege alot stops above 6100 think they could need some time to work to volatile now for cloase stops..but will not act as long yen is showing weakness thats to bullish for stocks hm short side is difficould iam to used to that simpel buying of dips hehe..thats my gameplan whats really going to happen we will see
ReplyDeleteHi Pred,
ReplyDeleteSo glad to hear from you this morning. I bought HL on Friday so I have some silver. Wondered all weekend if I was too early.
Think I will buy FAS today.
Good trading.
:)
hi shirley
ReplyDeleteit is alway nice to buy in a sell off
hi pred, good to hear from you again!
ReplyDeletethanks for the advice.
It´s great to hear from you again Pred...really missing your advice...in this tough moments they´re very useful. By the way I´m holding some pos in NG there was a nice rally, but may be is time to close them. Oil was flat today, follow your advice and bought feb 80 call, we´ll see..Still holding soft com, when do you think they´ll bounce back? Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi Andres,
ReplyDeletethank you.
I expect a short term deflation in commoditites price..if you have profit from your NG holding, it is not harm to cash out the profit, any up from here will be limited ..
Commoditites will roar back, but it is not the time ..
=========
Did not manage to close my short in S&P yestersday, will try to do today, let see how the market play out today
Close short in S&P 1093 and go long @ 1094
ReplyDeletehi pred
ReplyDeletereally tricky today i see havy buying of small traders on euwax i risk some shorts to grap a few points, also took small pos short euro dollar if 1,40 breaks for some hours i increase hm yesterday they were all the time havy short on euwax today havy long that setup workes often..
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/euwax-sentiment
Hi allen,
ReplyDeleteI think today we will see a rebound in equity and commoditity ..
btw way, from the technical point do you think oil have hit bottom ..
just ask for your opinion ..
Thank in advance
hi pred
ReplyDeletehm like i said tricky sentiment changes so fast intraday from havy short to long my approch now is with very small levrege and wide stops..like i played in past with 50 levrege no chance now u may be right but market moves so fast u get stoped out and 2 hours later u would have big profit..
oil iam really no expert to it iam looking just at dollar and purchasing power of dollar and where oil should be dollar is really fucking strong now and still no signs of weakness it should have retraced atleast something of that move..dollarindex bounced from 200mva if it manages to cross that and stays above for some days than it could get wild..euro crossed 200mva to downside..
in oil a trendline is broken normaly it trys to retest this line and than bounces to downside 200mva and strong support would be at 70..but like said crazy markets can we get some kind of bernanke bounce or not maybe iam turning to fast to bearish....whers the bounce in yen they downgraded their debt all kinds of things that could let market shortterm rally..
hm i will see if markets scare me to much i go back to that boring go long dax short eurostoxx game hehe
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to see the dollar go higher and commos go down. HL and China stocks- should I sell or hold on to wait for rebound? I hope there is a quick rebound, but now Marc Faber says we have a 20% decline? My nerves are not good.
hi shirly
ReplyDeletehm if u suffer to much on a position take some pressure out..think is never a mistake to cut pos at half when not working..if they really bounce back next weeks u are still in and that loss doesnt matter that much, if we go down alot from here on u saved money and can buy the pos later cheaper back..
u can look at dollarindex at timingchart take a 200mva and u see that theirs the battle at moment
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteWise words but I'm afraid I cracked today and sold a lot of my postions. Wish I could control my fear. I think its the one and only thing that will keep me from being successful in trading.
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteSorry for not check back..
Should wait for a rebound ... it is easier to sell at lose then to sell to take profit
I am think of taking new position soon ... in precious metal ...
The defend line for silver have broken, which i will waiting accumulate @ cheaper let see how the precious market for a while
Commoditites will make a come back ... but will have to wait for a while
Will add oil today ...
ReplyDeleteChinese New Years is coming ...
Should buy GOLD in proflio
From Obama, Union address, Yestersday night.
ReplyDeleteI think the commoditity will revivie faster then anticioate.. oil , metal ...
I will be starting to buy aggressive in the commoditity soon..
I will add gold today too
ReplyDeletehi pred
ReplyDeletehm i still sticking to my plan dax first try enter trendchannel failed at 5720 took some shorts to grap a few points..i expect another wild day as yesterday wide range up and down buying extreme points should work..
hey pred,
ReplyDeletewhats your opinion on the USDCAD cross? and at what point are you adding gold?
thanks in advance
Hi,Chirs..
ReplyDeleteLook like i need to play with technical play this time..
Close my long in S&P with some lose 8 point loss, seem like no rebound play insight this week.
The trading theme have change need to adjust my trading strategy ..
Thought of purchase on gold at 1088, but sentiment turn bearish , I will try make some purchase on gold price 1070 and silver @ 16, let see how he market play out..
Look like the dollar is againing real momentun ..
Allen good play :)
Some weird movement in gold ...
ReplyDeleteWill add long S&P long At 1082,
Considerating adding small position in gold
Add small position in Gold @ 1083
ReplyDeleteAnd silver @ 16.32...
Small position
closed short at 1076, adding gold at 1075
ReplyDeleteusdcad shorted at 106.55
oopss..1.0655
ReplyDeletechickend out on the gold closed at 1079, trying to think clearly, if it breaks 1070 it could very well drop to 1050 fairly quickly.
ReplyDeletegot lucky today worked great took some profit eaven shorts from yesterday are green now with my small levrege they cannot squeeze me hehe..
ReplyDeletehm iam to scared to buy today to much buying on euwax from small traders hm...think will stick to this stupid pattern thats working always but iam sure if i get greedy make a very big bet on it it stops working u can always buy dax futures on friday when us exchange cloase and u have a profit on monday opening u can watch this in charts incredibel..
iam very nervös on short euro/dollar dollar index managed to break the 200mva but there alwas crazy things happening a rebreak and once again a profit could disappear like last time after emploment numbers
hm i get this feeling we are building a head and shoulders pattern in dax, question is whers neckline...5392 would be a good point..secound shoulder should not go higher than 5850 than u messure the distance between neckline and top same distance from neckline should be target of correction maybe to early for such speculation....
ReplyDeletehi pred
ReplyDeletehm doing nothing at moment still have some shorts from yesterday and short euro/dollar..yen is weak at moment maybe thers some surprise in if strenghtens again..but small traders on euwax are incredibel short positions changing fast maybe could drive market somewhat higher..
so still looking for a shortchance and will buy cloase
so finally added to shorts at 5610 hope my reading is right..would not be happy to keep them till monday..
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteThanks Pred, but I know not to sell when things go down already. There were too many down days and my nerves were just stretched too much. Hope I can overcome that one day.
Bought back today HL @ 4.77 and NG at 5.46. Also, bought FTO @ 12.68 and TRLG @ 19.68.
I'll stay in cash and do some more research for the rest.
I keep hesitating about a forex and futures account. Any recommendations for a paper account and/or training?
hi shirly
ReplyDeletehm trading futures is a big desicion, no questioon they are the best way to trade..but newbies get killed there..
i think best is practise a long time with minifuture positions u can handle smaller positions its much easier to take some profit..drawbacks are the counterpartyrisk in minifutures..problems with stops..and never forget minifutures their stoploss is running against u if u take to big levrege quite fast...to train take very small levrege 3 or 4 so u can get in commos a stop loss far under very important lows and support levls..
papertrading is different u dont feel fear there,better start out with very small positions but real money and your golden rule u just increase if u have a profit if u want train currencys the are tricky they can run in one direction longer than u can imagine..u should get to a system where u act almost without thinking what to do if things go wrong and important in currencys let profits run..hm i cannot allways make money with them i have long times where i stop trading them wenn is see i just collect losses..eaven soros says in his books he has jears where he took just losses with currencys
so cloased all shorts and currency shorts going with dax longs into next week at 5560..hope this monday bull works again hehe
ReplyDeleteHi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly what I want to do - practice, practice, practice for months using e-mini sp on a paper account, or if I see a good opportunity like I did in orange juice this month. I'm in an area of agriculture, some of my family are farmers and ranchers so I have knowledge about what can happen to crops. I haven't used margin except a few times for a couple of days. I'm actually fairly conservative.
Well, that damn market went down again after I bought, but my nerves are better. Even tho it worked out to sell and re-enter, I didn't like being such a wimp. It helps to think about the fact that by year end, silver and gold should be higher -(keeping the long term perspective to prevent cracking again).
Well, I'm going to go outside and pick some oranges off my trees and make fresh squeezed oj.
Hoping for a better next week.
Cheers.
Ok everyone,
ReplyDeleteSorry, but I'm still worried. I thought the dollar would not close above the 200ma. May I ask Pred and Allen, do u think we entering a bear run here?
hi shirley
ReplyDeleteohh god u misunderstand me i would not talk my worst enemy into margin trading..keep away from that stuff..
i better show u on a exampel what could happen if u take a dax long position over weekend like iam with knockouts and a other guy does the same with his margin account..
if thers something happen during weekend like a secound 9/11 or eaven bigger or israel attacks iran...the guy with the margin position is getting destroyed the market could gap a few hundret points or eaven a 1000points his stop loss doesnt help stop loss is just a normal market sell order..he is losing everything he owns with one singel trade his entire accound get sold off margin call and so on..
what happens to me i loose the money on a knockout that i have put in normaly 1-2% of my account not a singel cent more the rest is problem of the bank
thats the reason why this margin accounts usually dont make it longer than a year..just very few people know how to exploit this margin trading the usually keeping positions just a few minits or secounds..
Gold stayed above 1075 with confidence. i see a small rally in gold the next few trading days. probrally won't be much, but gold is due for a minimal bounce back.
ReplyDeleteHi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks, you are right, when you talked about leverage, I thought you meant using margins. So, you think I need to feel the fear and open a real account when trading futures, huh? Who do you trade with- IB, TradeStation, or? And, if I go with a real account, I will only trade one mini-contract at a time and close by day end. Hope your long dax works out for Monday. Does this make you a bull for next week?
The dollar chart, sp chart and bond charts don't look good to me. Wish I had more experience.
hi
ReplyDeletehm my onlinebroker is expensive the tools he offer arent that good ok i can look quite deep in some orderbooks but he has big buisness and i would not change him hm the reason think u can guess *G*
to the markets i had last week the target november lows in dax around 5380 i would have been more happy to buy at that levls on friday..
some sign that a shortterm buttom is near but we could go down early in this week also to that levls and start from there some bounce..
u see some buying starting on timingcharts from smart money no big buying but it is some buying there..
in currencys like u said dollar index crossed 200mva look at positions of smart money they increased again dollar longs big time thats something to worry but also currencys dont move in straight lines..
bets against euros also increased..
like chris said gold showing some signs of a shortterm buttom but now sorros starts to shoot against gold that could mean he wants to buy it but much much cheaper..iam in that gold game but bought somewhere in that goldbullmarket with bad timing..will stick there to my plan waiting until summer until i start big buying..
this long lasting bullmarket changes somehow the way u think u dont question urself u continue just dowing what worked for a long time without thinking..for my longer games i try to start short positions in dax at resistance 5860 if we can get there but like always u plan alot on weekend and market opens and all is different hehe
we moved up more than 3000 points in dax so a correction of 500points is still nothing we could loose another 1000 points and it would still be just a correction..so shortterm some bounce should be coming medium therm iam not that optimistic the next 2 month could be bearish
preditors shorts were a dream he hit almost market tops hope we can read what he is thinking
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think i am looking for a big bound..
adding oil @ 72.9
Gold 1080
silver 16.25
I turn mini bullish since last week ..
ReplyDeleteI think china policy just want to slow down inflation but not growth..
So this is a short term efffect on commoditites
now the obama is trying to add 3.8 trillion into the economy ... well... i think the dollar will lost it shine soon..
Gold is hegde against dollar ..
commodity will raise due to this stimulas
small position in gold shorted at 1096, i will continue to short as price continues to rise.
ReplyDeleteHi Allen
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reply. Last month was bad for me as I am in commos. Like you said, you keep doing what is working so I held too long....At least gold and silver are in the green for me once again. I added to positions as I this this move could last for a while. Hope I know when to take profit. As Pred and you say, its hard to sell when things are looking good for your positions.
I looked at some charts this weekend showing comparisons to the years 2009-10 and 1938. Also, charts comparing 1929 and 2007-8. The charts were very similar. There is also a comparison for Nikkei in 1980's. If the trend of these charts hold, then, the total picture for the rest of the year doesn't look good. We could have a double dip recession.
Here's a broader view of one chart. The post is several down dated Jan. 30.
http://www.dshort.com/
@Pred,
Thanks for the post. As usual, your timing is unbelievable. Where do you get your info to make these great calls.
Here is an article regarding the Nigerian rebels who are targeting the oil pipelines again. May be bullish for oil.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5nZ6LG7.Cfk
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteI see a weird movement in gold and precious metal price yestersday,
Dollar gain in strenght but the precious did not declined and defend line @ 1075 old manage to hold ...
I decided to add medium position in oil, gold and silver
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteThank you Pred. I noticed on Friday that it didn't go down either, but didn't make as much connection. Looking at dollar, bonds, and dow so I was afraid more than anything.
I appreciate your giving the reasons for your trade as it would help to keep me (and others) alerted for similar which I would also post to the site.:)
looks like gold may try to pull back
ReplyDeletei covered my gold shorts at 1109. wheww...what a scare last night!! I took a small loss and i will never again (hopefully) put myself in a position that large again. Right now i'm lookin for direction. @pred and allen, how do you guys see the gold market next few days or weeks?
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm maybe sold my last dax longs a little to early today..thuersday iam always hoping on a nice gap up opening in dax to short atleast cloasing of gap..i stick to my plan playing it technicaly dax is back again in a slower downwardtrendchannel a break of 5600 lower boundary to downside will force me to go earlier short target 5380..
if we get somehow to 5800 and above i start accumulating shorts with stop loss at 6100 thats my medium plan..
job numbers tomorror could move markets and currencys somewhat pattern is horribel job numbers some dollar weakness markets are strong..very good job numbers strong dollar weak markets..
@chris
gold hm i never short it if lucky u could grap 100bucks but the upside in gold over the next few years should be incredibel..
the only real killer for gold are high very very high interest rates double digit than gold game is really over..
so this stupid dollar rally has something good also we could another time get really cheap gold i hope during summer..
thanks for the input. i've studied gold cycles for about the past year, really interesting stuff. From what i can tell so far is that gold will be down until mid march sometime barring war and any other black swan event(as goes its advisary the dollar), then spike up pretty good april through summer. We'll see, i just wish i had a better crystal ball. I was really confused early today, i didn't see the drop i was hoping for...maybe in a few hours we'll see some slack in the price.
ReplyDeleteHi everyone...
ReplyDeleteI am taking my profit from all position.
Let see how the day go on...
, if there is a good dip i might be buy more, but it is better to take profit ... first
Closing gold @ 1105
silver @16.60
Oil @ 76.80
what a selloff added to shorts at breaking of 6600
ReplyDeleteAdding some Gold @ 1080
ReplyDeleteAdding silver @ 15.79
ReplyDeleteToday call will be tough one ...
ReplyDeleteif you are confident it is better to stay in the side line ...
There is two way and cause you lose money
Fear and greedy
Fear, if you sell or cover your position due to fear, 60 - 75% you will lose money
Greedy if you buy or hold position due to greedy, you will also 50- 75% of you will profit little or no profit or lose due to this stand.
If you can control this two emotion and manage fundamental, you should do well ...70 -90% of the time
if you are confident it is better to stay in the side line ... = if you are not confident it is better to stay in the side line ...
ReplyDeleteadding some position @ 1069
ReplyDeletesilver @ 15.57
ReplyDeleteso true...sell the hype, buy the panic
ReplyDeletei'm thinking of buying here
ReplyDeletehm i want to have a strong support in back when buying,next in dax i see only at 5380 sep lows..think will keep most shorts overnight and will stick to that stupid buying friday cloase pattern..
ReplyDeletehm chris did u manage to keep some gold shorts, think shorting something that u really like and maybe want to own for longer plays is the most difficould thing if position not working from start u get very scared if position works u maybe take profit to fast..
hm wheat and corn are not getting destroyed so far i hope there the running out of sellers somewhat..
man i totally cracked! should have stuck with my instinct.... i had the right idea from the begining. i love gold as a long term investment, but like i said before until soveriegn debt problems get resolved the us$ will continue to rise, i feel like we are 1/2 through this so far, don't go long gold for at least another month, gold will more than likely break 1000 before it will break 1100 again. ....for at least a month i am going to take a break from trading, going on vacation to the grand canyon next week..good luck to everyone here!
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm added to shorts dont expect dax to go down more than 5380 thers my buying levls..dont know if i buy intraday i like more buying cloase of us markets dax futures thers always some nasty surprise in to the end of us trading *G*
Allen Good call on Dax :)
ReplyDeleteYestersday was a tought day for a bull ...adding position is very tought
But the more it go down the bullish i am so will sit to see your a while ..
will add big position when the price at 1045.00
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think there will be a turning point will be today..
So might add medium position in long S&P..
First target @ 1059
Second target 1057
hm du u think job numbers turn market could be possibel..i stay allert but hard to reverse a trend that keeps on running whole day i want to buy today but must controll myself to stick to plan at end of day buying..still sitting on most of my shorts just little profittaking to feal better..currencys showing some signs but could also be a fake of some reversal to early to judge..but another shortterm buttom should really be near..still sticking to my 5380 target
ReplyDeleteallen,
ReplyDeleteToday i read in bloomberg about china will focus on job grow...
Actually i am starting to turn bullishon commoditites ...
USA focus on job grow... look like there will some credit expension then
i will switch to Platinum play
ReplyDeletehm i still fear the big dollar long positions of smart money..think they will continue playing some fear games over next one or 2 months..to drive markets somewhat down and people out again from the good things in long run to get that stuff for themself very cheap burned my fingers this year with commos will be allitle on sidelines there..
ReplyDeletethe dollar also have problem just like the euro... but it happen that this time they decided to shoot at the euro ...
ReplyDeletethe problem in EURO Zone had already started lasted years but they just don't put that in spot light...
with the obama budget and deficit, and it is election years .. well the citizen need to be happy so i expect the dollar to start difting sooner then expected...
hm grats pred..cut shorts at half but still not buying this move lets see what happening they are for my feeling to bullish sentiment on euwax hm still 100points up on other shorts...
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
ReplyDeletewhat do you use for Platinum play?
Hi CBS
ReplyDeletei think platinum will do better then gold
cloased my shorts and bought at 5400 wanted to see bounce from supp level hope hasnt fooled me..time to get drunk hehe
ReplyDeleteHi Pred,
ReplyDeleteDo you have interst in other metals? zinc, Palladium? I like to trade PAL on the gaps.
Hi Pred..What´s your opinion of us nat gas ? reserves stillo going down in us..nov 3.8 billion cubic feet and 2.3 bill cub feet in february. Although winter is coming to an end..
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm really we say a intraday reversal late on friday like preditor said in s&p..
i also got my targets in dax,this week iam more happy than last week starting with long position.. this possibel downside is now cleared..target for my longs is 5740 last high and thers also a gap..if markets can beat this strong resistance than theirs a chance for more but there i would be very carefull..
still sticking to my medium plan markets trys to build a toping pattern for me lots of signs of head and shoulders pattern in dax
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI have not had much time to study anything. What do all of you see happening this week?
I did manage to open a futures account, but Allen, I will not fund yet as I had enough fear for a while so I will paper trade for now.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteadd oil @ 70.2
Yestersday add S&P @ 1052
my positon quite pack, hopefully to take some profiut within the next two day..
BRAVO Allen, wow your call is bull eye ... happy for you ..
Hi CBS,
ReplyDeleteI only play a few item , main commodities, stock main index , cause follow too much invest will caue you heart attack sometime ..
Platinum should be good play cause the car is will set to recover with is bold well for platinum and platinum jewelry is raising popularity in chaina, so it should not be a bad idea to have some position in platinum
Hi Andrea,
ReplyDeleteThere might be still some upside in Nat gas from but should be very cautious to play long from here ... if you are playing long should play short term holding cash out verytime you got profit ... don't forget to put tight loss ...
The oil have made quite correction but the Natgas have not yet ... There will time when the Nat Gas will correct and i believe the correction will very deep and tough for the bull to swallow ..
hi pred
ReplyDeleteyes got lucky 2 weeks now everything i touch in dax turns to gold..but i know if i take much more risk than usuall i will get punished big time hehe
its a very dangerous traders market what we have think investors should be some time on sidelines
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteYou noticed a weird trend recently regarding gold. It seems there is something weird here again. The commos are up but the sp and banks are trending lower. What is your interpretation for this? Are we running to gold and not the dollar as much? I'm starting to think it may be dangerous to be long the sp for even a short time.
what a dissapointing monday missed chance to take profit at 5500 letting long pos run but stop at 5375..
ReplyDelete@shirley
hm thers still a move down to euro/dollar 1,30 on the charts i hope for some retracement bevor this move happens..of course better for me it would not happen that my cash euros lose value..
very tricky where to hide now, i only now if my levls break i go short again..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThis market is disappointing and weird. This morning I saw the trend but couldn't really believe it as so many others were bullish. I had thought on Friday that Monday would rally (like always) so I bought in the last hour. Now that JPM has been downgraded, I think the markets have more downside. I have closed my long positions, except NG, with losses. My understanding now is that the market dynamics have changed. Even if tomorrow is an up day, I am bearish and will look for opportunities to short the market. After all, they say the trend is your friend. This week, I will paper trade the mini sp and just watch the markets.
I'm glad your dax worked earlier.
Preditor:
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on china? Both Chanos and Faber are bearish.
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeletethe market have being moving weirdly in the past few trading session, which we should becarefull to take the bait of the Greek crisis ... and when you compare GDP to the Europend it is only 2-3% so .. Greek should not have much impact to EURO ..
Greek deficit is only 13% of the GDP but when you compare with UK which is 16% of the GDP which more worrison...
But well the media just want to shoot the euro for a while ..
And the PIGS, well total GDP for the 4 country is only 6% percent of the Europen union ...
So their deficit should be easier to contain when compare to UK and USA.
It is just an opportunity to buy thing a cheaper leve that all ... but you need to have the courage to decide when the market squeezze ... ....
I think i am getting more and bullish on commoditites ..
Hi Bob G,
ReplyDeleteWell the bubble in china is worrison but we have to compare the bubble between USA or UK with the bubble in China.
USA or UK, borrow fund from foregner to fund bubble but China have their fund to build the bubble ... well... i am not going to worry about bubble in China, china is the grow engine of the next century so sooner or later the price will go up again ...
so ... short term bearish but medium is very bullish ... the consumer base in china is growing ....
Hi allen,
ReplyDeleteI think you have better price for dax to cash out :)
Good play allen
hi all,
ReplyDeletejust to update i was catching falling knifes and now sitting at some losses.
As I share the same view with Pred. China's is not tightening but merely slowing the exponential growth from the current account surplus. property only in bubble while the real economy is still growing.
For Euro, i see that they need export engine to bring back down their deficit (& to compete with China export), so 1.5 euro/usd would not be likely i think. Hence carry trade maybe shifted back to usd/jpy where jpy need to be cheap to strengthen export back.
although as stupid piigs cool down, eur/usd may stregthen further to reclaim 1.4
regardless of which currency pair, if there's carry trade, there's money to risky assets.
once carry trade is on again, the force to push back the mkt will be very big. right now, it just need to shake out more ppl (like me) before the push.
my only regret was that i never lock in profits n they turned into losses and i have to average down. or to hedge by buying inverse etfs. Stupid decision in hindsight.
euphoria & panic can really lose ppl money...
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't just the PIIGS thing. It is the weird actions and wild 100+ point up and down swings in the market that remind me of the Fall of 2007 when I began following markets. Of course in hindsight, it was better to sell today.
The problem with commos is that they also go down with the stock market. Faber said the Baltic Index is down so China is slowing down for a while. If they are slow, then I am still bearish short term and think there will be more correction.
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think the china policy did not mean to slow down but just to deflat the property bubble..
China have huge population and cause them social problem if the temp to slow the economy which result slower emplyment ..
China need to grow at least 8 % per years in order to have stable sociaty .
Well the China , i bet on the bull side
The situation 2007 and 2010 is complete different story and senario, so have to analysis the different before jump into conclusion
As for the commoditites..
ReplyDeleteWell the China have huge US dollar reserve, the dollar gain in strength and the commoditites price is down... ut uwl serve china purpose to contain their inflation ,... i think they will use this wonderful opportunity to scope up commoditites at lower price ...
Further US is in the rebuild inventories phrase.. it should serve the bull in the commoditites from here on..
hi pred
ReplyDeleteso finally we get our reward after this painfull monday..but this time iam taking some profit iam not that sure if my earlier targets in dax can be reached..we lost one bullish day this week
to currencys hm fundamental iam with u but currencys can trade and have traded in past long times against all fundamentals if u can remember our discussion a few months ago about euro/dollar when everyone was bearish at dollar...
dont underestimate how stupid central banks are around the world the always sell something thats cheap and buy something thats expensive..they sold cheap dollar last year and bought expensive euro ..the could start more and more to buy back expensive dollars and sell cheap euros hehe
also this currency traders are very trendfollowing..smart money still almost all out long on dollar
i like to use sorros aproach described in alchemy of finance to trade them..in his early years he was also very contrarian but than gone back to be more trendfollowing..
so my system is very simpel just technical..watching important levls watching ema52 in daily and for shorter trades in hourly charts watching this downward trendchannel in euro/dollar where it bounced on friday on the lower boundary of that channel,also dollar index with just an 200mva is a great help..going long euro is still contrarian play at this moment..playing it that way has also some drawbacks u never get tops or buttoms but thers always enough money to make once u have trend right..so i still dont know where euro/dollar wants to go but my systems forces me most of time into right trades add some moneymanagement to this and u win more over time that u loose
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI am really confused as you told Bob you are short term bearish on China. To me, a China play is a commo play as China and Asia in general will lead the growth. What is your time frame? I think that is what is confusing to me sometimes when people write. One person's time frame is different than another.
Also, I have read that when the sp moves in wild swings that there is usually a change in the direction of the market.
(I just read on HMS that it takes 2-6 years to make money as a trader. That's a long time). I made $ last year, but it looks like that was a fluke. Thanks for your help. I really do appreciate all of Allen and your help.
Pred,
ReplyDeleteAs a followup, r u long commos for a long term or is this a short term play. If so, how long? Also, are you saying then, that the stock market is trending up for that time period too?
Sorry to try to pin you down so much as I know things are always fluid. I'm trying to understand the markets better.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletehm keep on reading this old book..read the basics of support and resistance again and again until u full understand the idea than u can make ur own plan on the market u want to trade u find this levls easie and priceaction forces the trade u have to take on u..
that could be a good start for ur training..but no matter how much u analyse or try to think ahead u will not be abel to get just winners
but u need always some kind of what if plans as exampel if euro/dollar takes to surprise earlyier fridays lows out im short euro earlier..if dollar index breakes 200mva to downside and so on..the opposite trade could be the right one..
You are right Allen. I need to read and learn much more about everything. My head hurts sometimes trying to take it all in. But I won't give up. Hopefully, you and Pred won't get tired of me.
ReplyDeleteHi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteFrom the way you wriite here, they have struck the fear in your heart which is very bad if they successful manipulate your thought and emotion..
I wrote that there is two way you will lose money in invest fear and greedy ..
You need to master this in your own way, analysis base on the fundamental ...
When yu pick news to analysis the market for your investment, you got to be able to different between the noise and the fundemantal...
For example, for the past day they have speculate that the Greek or PiGS will detablised the EURO.... when i see this news, i feel abit funny but well that is how they to quickly the resverse the dollar and euro position... the dollar will not get far... so becareful if you still oing to short euro/dollar... the down from should e limited.....
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteregarding my stand on commoditites, i have start turning bullish since friday ...
I brought alot of stuff, s&P, oil, gold and silver
Look forward to cash the position.
The commoditites should be in the bull run from now on, china luar news years will deplete invenotries plus US is also building inventories, so i think the commoditites should be a good play for a while ...
I don;t like chasing the market, i like to buy in bearish and sell when the market is over bullish... remember trading is not a way street, and take profit from time to time, you only have profit when you take it
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWell said!
I also have been buying miners, and watching closely the chinese solar companies. I have a small pos that I will take a profit in April or May.
hi
ReplyDeletehm sold my last dax longs dont like going into thuersday with long positions..wheat doing nice one two days like this and out of red numbers there..
Hey Pred I agree, if you dont buy in gloom when will you buy.
ReplyDeleteAll the bloomberg headlines look atrocious.
Lots of people are trying to short. The dollar long trade is begining to become crowded.
TBH i see lots of potential breakouts in stocks as opposed to further downside.
The bears are in full force.
Hey shirley, I think you have pretty good natural instinct. You picked your exits well and acted quickly.
ReplyDeletePerhaps in order to hold your nerve better you need more hedging and smaller position sizes with multi tranche entry strategies to average into positions better ?
Keep on learning I think you'll do great in the end ;)
BDI is turning bullish.
ReplyDeleteCarry trade into AUD is back on given Australias unemployment rate fell again. Speculation rates will rise soon.
EUR has bottomed.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI think the bull is building momentum ....
Hi anon,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the encouragement. You are right that positions should be small right now for me.
I hate the paper trading account I set up. Can't figure it out at all. How does one learn how to use an operating system if they don't know anyone who does this trading? I wanted to open a trade station account as I think their system is one of the best, but they charge 99.00 per month unless you do 10 trades each month. Perhaps that is what I will need to do.
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeletehave you looked at Interactive Brokers?
Hi CBS,
ReplyDeleteYes, I have. They say they are for experienced traders and do not have much in the way of customer support. But, hey, I may reconsider.
Interesting that the BDI Index is up. I will need to look at that. I'm still uncomfortable with the markets as the financials have not done well today compared to the rest of the market. I'm concerned the commercial RE is going to blow up one day and sink the markets again.
We also have lots of re-sets on ARMs coming due in 2010 and 2011. That is what keeps me out of the real estate market.
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteThe commerial RE will blow up, same as the treasury bond ...
So you have to weight between two ..
Both have opposite effect to each other, that is how i think
Pred is the Euro a buy here or do we "stay away"?
ReplyDeleteTo me the Euro is just as bad as the Pound and the USD. So the media are just having a field day with this ;)
Hey, Pred,
ReplyDeleteI'm taking your advise to heart. Not too greedy and not too much fear. For the past few days, I have bought a few things at low prices and immediately put in orders to sell at 5-10% gains. Yesterday, I sold PPLT (platinum) for 5% gain and bought BGZ near the close. Holding NG as I put in an order for 10% profit.I might change that as it seems the markets only want to go up 100+ pts. and then go down 100+ points. Until this trend changes that is my game plan which has worked for now.
Opps, I meant BZQ.
ReplyDeleteGood luck out there:)
hi
ReplyDeletehm i prefer to play fridays from short site but like always look for longs at depressed levels in last hour bevor cloase(iam not buying if lows of last week in dax are taken out) i hope for lot of volatility..started buying carefully some euro/dollar shorts no big play but charts looking horribel for euro
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI didn't play BZQ very well. I had an order placed last night to sell at 29.25 - a little over 5% return. It was over 29.00 and I thought about just taking that but didn't and had to leave hoping for a final push up while I was gone. I ended up with a very small profit when I returned, so I took it.
Allen, if the market is up to around 1080 on the s & p, I'm going short into the weekend. Just a small position. Anyway, with these markets, if the sp goes up on Monday, it's very likely to go back down on Tues.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletegood to see u try to buy at depessed levls and short strenght..shorting strenght is very difficould in us is something that just wants to short at lows and to buy highs hehe..its quite at moment but i expect some action in the last hours i have some shorts and would add to shorts at 5540in dax if we can make it there..
if u want to improve ur entry this statistics could help somewhat if u have a big daily move to get into trade again when retracement is on start of that move..like often said iam not that one that jumps into position with everything i want to have into it i build on them on different retracements
ReplyDelete50% – 61,8% = ca. 73%
> 61,8% = ca. 15%
< 50%= ca. 12%
Allen,
ReplyDeleteWhat are those numbers? I'm not understanding. Thanks, I really appreciate all your help. :)
Shirley
Well, I didn't short the market. Instead, I went long on oil -just a small position. We will see. Have a great long weekend, everyone.
ReplyDeleteHi Shirley..
ReplyDeleteGood play .. :)
Hope you will recoup from your loss...
You master the technical in your way, you will be reward handsomely so time in the future
hi
ReplyDeletehm think preditor the master of buying fear has done the best last week when i look at goldprice hehe
@shirley
hm a exampel to explain this numbers they have something to do with fibonacci numbers..
first the easy task analysing backwards..
last big downmove 5740-5383=357
357 x 0,618=220
5383 + 220 = 5603
and really that was the high of last week, its clear looking back is always easy but if u are in a long position and dont know when to take some profit i find it usefull..
now the more difficould task next week iam starting with some shorts avrg 5530 after profittaking and buying in again, should be cloase enough to last weeks high to come out with some profit..
thers a upward trendchannel building upper boundary at 5600
if dax trades on monday for more hours abouve that levl i start reducing shorts..thers danger to big that he rallys to 5740 than during week there around i will look for another shortchance..
after looking with some distance at euro/dollar charts and asking myself whois that stupid shorting at lower boundary of that channel the answer is me hehe sometimes u loose ur way in this marketaction plan was different to enter pos after some bounce to upper boundary at 1,40
Allen,
ReplyDeleteNever lose your sense of humor.:)
And, who knows, with these whipsaw markets, you may find you have a brilliant trade after all.
BTW, I learned a lot from your example. I appreciate your comments on your trades after the fact too.
@Pred,
Thanks. I'm still down from the beginning of the year as I am trading in smaller amounts. I have made money this last week or two. Will increase trades as I gain more confidence.
Have a great week everyone.
Pred,
ReplyDeleteI just looked at gold. Do you know why it is up so much? I hold NG and have a sell order for $6.25. I'm thinking it is going to take off higher at this rate??? I think I will change to $6.75 for now.
Wheat and silver is going up too!
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think the Gold increase is because of fear in currency crsis and china revalue yuan ...
The Euro problem have strike some of the investor mind that how flat currency is valurable to it own debt ... this is a thing need to watch out ... i am happy with my gold oil but silver i still @ break even point ...
So come to think of china, i think china might begin to buy more commoditites to reduce dollar holding as dollar gaining strength..
I am thinking of reduce stock outlook and off to commoditites.
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWell, it sure is looking that way. Stocks are not that high today compared to oil and PM.
I had been concerned about China and wasn't as much a bull in commodities. We will see if this is only a one day or longer.
Hi Shirley
ReplyDeleteCheck this out .. this the news..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a1mKfP3W.Ang
This is what spook investor ...
Yeah, Pred
ReplyDeleteIt spooks me that China doesn't want to buy treasuries. The Chinese are not dumb, and when the US Treasuries are defaulted, there has to be pain for China and others. The US will be a big loser and that makes me sad. I called my Senators to ask them not to bail out Wall Street. 90% of the country did not want to bail them out, but Congress did anyway and we will pay for generations. From an investment standpoint, I think there will be a time this year to go short the market due to big defaults in several countries. Hope we see the signs before that happens.
Today, it seems someone big bought gold. Any ideas? China?