Hi Everyone.
It is quite sometime since I last update my Blog ...
There is afew thing have unfolded for the past few week which is quite spooky for flat currency , and debt market...
For all the bull and bear ... currency it is getting more bearish as it go forward ..
1)First the Greek hidden.
2)China start selling US Security,
3)tresury bond auction almost fail ...
This is something and we investor need to beware of the changes of this magnitube ..
Yestersday is a show of force of what is to come in the near future, question is : is the currency you are hold is up to it value even with debt/deficit ?..
Currency need to be able to store value but not accumulate debt ..
Gold have being used as mediem of exchange for the past 5000 years and still able to store value til date, history have taught about debt, inflation and economice collasp due to currency problem ..
Ok let jump into my view and trend ..
Let talk about debt in Greek and Fed , They somehow is it is as spook as it get
The deficit of Greek should not actual so much impact in EUR zone economice but what really shock me is the hidden debt which have being accumulate for the past years and ECB is not being able to audit the debt. Sound familar ... I think the Fed is also have ton of hidden debt and the big problem they are refusing congress to audit, this is someting which is more spooky then Greek's hidden debt.
From the treasury auction result, I feared that we might have a currency crsis which i really hope it will not happen, but if it happen well you guy better buy lot of commodities and precious metal in your portfolio... buy some real gold... paper gold is as good as Flat currency...
And china have being selling US security for the past month, well this is a change of trend, so i will not going to be a bull dollar from here on ..
=================
Why there is a big bang on market yestersday.
I smell sense of fear in debt market and currency, as investor shifting fund out to hold commoditites ...
Yestersday have caught alot of investor off guard but predictable is you knew what behind the move ..
==========
Any dip in commoditites is a BUY from here, timing wise will depend of your gust...I can tell you this , it is will nervous and depress on the dip ..
will be back for more ..
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Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you. Spooky = fear, so there will be big moves in market if you are correct. I am in southern California, where everyone still believes all is ok. I have fear about these issues too, that is why I am only playing miners, and physical gold, and cash.
God Bless, and good investing to you!
hi pred
ReplyDeletei also think lot of this gold paper market is some sort of berney madoff game naked shorts and so on my amageddon hedge is also physical gold but i wasnt smart enough built him some jears ago when it was reall cheap..so still underinvested and hoping gold goes down alot just for one day would be perfekt hehe
hmpf shorts in dax looking not so good this week after missing 2 chances to cash in had to cloase some with loss..but thuersday and friday coming usually not the most bullish days..iam looking for chances to buy in again..
Hi Every
ReplyDeleteCash out my postion in Gold and oil and silver today with very nice profit,
Oil @ 77.20
Gold @ 1110
And Silver @ 16.10
Still have my S&P @ average 1055, which i look forward to cash to take new position ...
the IMF annnoucement of Gold .. caught my attention ... better take profit and retake position later ..
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. Yesterday, I also took profits, except for gold. Gold is my security blanket.:)
I am short the sp and oil. Small positions as usual lately. Everything is very volatile so I have become a day trader for now and it seems to be working.
@Allen,
Yes, I have read about those gold and silver etf's and how there may not be metal to back them up. One day tho, gold will probably be outlawed in the US. My best solution is gold miners.
Good luck to all.
Oh, I just read about the IMF selling its gold. Yes, I will have to step out of gold too. Nothing is safe in this environment.
ReplyDeleteWell, I sold oil and sp early and went long oil. That was just a lucky move - not skill on my part. I could not sell NG and it went down today. I really like the company and think it will get bought out, but Barrons wrote a neg. article on it recently. Overall, I'm happy with the day. Don't really like day trading, but the markets are too choppy for me to keep positions.
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling very lucky today. I sold UCO near the close for 12.05.
ReplyDeletePred and Allen, what way will you be playing this Fed move on interest?
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteFrom what is from the news..
I think the market is in nervous situation including the Fed, from a lot of news and speculation over the reuter and bloomberg ... And the Fed move..
Behind the curtain , i think the chinese did reduce the treasury holding and from the auction result not much interest from indirect buyer (Foreign Bank), made the Fed have to smooth the market with the raise rate in the discount window .. The world economy is start to depend lesser on USA and this is a trend which i seeing from now .. that is why the auction did not go so well.
From the Oil consumption drop every month and the China is importing oil more .. the middle east country will start to cooperate more with the china and depend lesser on the USA,
With alot of off shore oil drilling in disscuss which will effect import oil from middleeast, while this will make the middle east buy lesser bond too.
The US government is forcing too much on China, especial the Taiwan and Tibet issue which is something US need to do deep thinking.
I don;t understand why US would like to do that, sooner or later Taiwan and China will unificed ... China will be very patient on this .. With unification of Taiwan and China, Asia will have better peace, which should be more benefit to US economy then to try to create provoke sentiment with the china in Asia and cause a rift in this area .
With Toyota issue , I think the Japan may start to buy lesser US Bond ... This is something which the bond holding is freaking out ... Japan will start to depend on more China import, same as for Korea and ASEAN.. This is the next big trend ..
We might see the reserve trend in trading, alll thing raise as the dollar,and the treasury is at the edge of dookie ... beware of bond...
I am planning to retake position in Gold and oil on the dip.
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm after a bad week still sticking to my head and shoulders plan in dax...after breaking from resistance 5600 cloased most shorts with loss bought higher in again..next important levl is near if 5740 breaks i have to get out again..dont like to have shorts running to many points against me..
after that lot updays bull should slowly run out of steam..
with the pos i had most worrys short euro/dollar but cloased most on monday..
I have brought oil @ 78.5
ReplyDeletegold @ 1102
silver @ 15.80
big position
sensing something different today... Safe play I will stick to commoditites investment.
hi pred
ReplyDeletewill continue ececuting my plan now we may enter the retracement from the entire downmove 0,5 -0,618 5740-5826 in this regions 70% of all retracements ends
will continue to buy as cloase as possibel to the strong resistance levles and cloase most shorts if levl breaks down and short next..
planning adding a bigger short etf pos at 0,618 retracement..
my hedje is still some wheat and corn pos and miners..if all goes wrong and we really enter a big bullmarket..but no question new highs in dax would knock out my shorts with major loss..
looking back should have taken more attention to pos of large traders the have taken a major long pos in s&p..
have found a very good interview with bert dohmen(wellington letter)
http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/?p=135
i dont agree with all but he makes some good points..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteJust heard the podcast. That was interesting. Do you know very much about Dohmen. I'm thinking about subscribing to his newsletter?
Also, its interesting that the UN is now admiting that Iran is building nuclear weapons. Does this give Israel the go ahead to attack?
Hi Allen and Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think the bond is more worrying then the stock ...
Come to think of the position not sure if it is wise to go for a short at this point ..
Stock look bad but the bond look worst ... if there will be bond unwind without effecting the dollar strength compare to other currency, i gues the commoditites and some stock is the best place to be for now ..
A bubble = price of something which you have to loan to buy.
ReplyDeleteIf you can effort even the price is in what we call bubble, then i guess it is not a bubble it is just expensive..
Dubai property is in bubble cause they have to borrow to build...
hi
ReplyDelete@shirley
hm i dont know much about about dohmen but he often makes calls first lot of people say impossibel like his very early dollar rally call...
but still very tricky the longs from smart money in the market iam not all out short some chances for double top are still in..dax is still in a upward trendchannel i will take profit if test of 5600 lower boundary happens..
but this downmoves always come very fast when u dont expect so i have always some shorts in place..
my big fear is they decide to paper all and everyting over in eu than this stupid rally can accelerate for some time..therefore my hedje in comos..
but i think one main point without credit groth thers no recovery possibel.. from where should it come they cannot endless stimulate in eu we have no money left for that actions also saving banks is now very tricky for politicans people getting angry here also with greek bailout..
also rep cpac is good exampel politicians start to see if u get to cloase to a bank u could get in trouble getting reelected..
Hi Pred and Allen,
ReplyDeletePersonally, I don't know whether the stock markets are going up or down. Volume is low and I just think it is risky either way. I'm mostly on the sidelines for now, waiting for a sign. I wonder if now is the time to short treasuries for a long term play?
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeletewhen you are not sure where the
arket is going take some rest.
Hi Allen ,
ReplyDeleteThank you to the link. I have listen to the conversation and do some thinking on his idea. I do agree with him that we will have a a hard correction but it will not happen soon. For the past month have being looking at the market , it seem like the big institue just wAnt to test the market sitmula a correction environment. I think they hAve got IDE and it planning for something which is why , I remove my bear hat for a while.
Regarding to the debt theory , I do agree with Burton 50 percent. Actually economy can grow without debt or credit expension. Country like India and china can grow from their saving. Economy grow by borrowing I call it a bubble bit not for economy which can affort.
He also share the se view as I that the dollar will gain strength but but when I think of how china took opportunity to unwind the treasury when the fed use quantity ease policy, which make sense to me. I believe a lot of central will
use this opportunity too in the future when time arrive.
I believe a lot of centrAL would like to use this wonder dollar rally to off load some of their dollar holding and treasury. When dollar gain strength stock and commoditity fall but, this is not what I see at the moment really see right now
ReplyDeletemight be in next week trading wish I know the answer. AnywAy . It will better to dispose some dollar to buy commodiites at cheaper this should be better strategy then to use dollar when it is a falling value
lol have u read soros fond buys big time gold hehe after soros calling it a bubble to scare buyers out hehe he always does the same..
ReplyDeleteits tricky cloased most fridays shorts have feeling must buy in much higher..remaining i let stop out if 5750 gets beaten this weak..
dont know if i loose neutral view technically all looks strong stock market, commos very strong at moment but thers something different to last year when i bought dips..
thers a downmove to 1,30 very strong support euro/dollar on charts but i dont know how it would happen..if retraces first to 1,40 than we could have our double top in stocks and commos should rally also big..but if we move straight down to 1,30 hm..
i think ur right calling it a bubble but thats the problem we have no saving europe is not much better than us so where should real groath come i dont mean continus stimulus and so on eaven this bubble groath will be difficould to continue when banks arent lending..think this whole year will be a difficould pokergame not to get to early all in..not to get to exited when prices stocks go up big..be ready when others get their margin calls to catch the good stuff very cheap and so on..like u always doing hehe.. if things really getting bad think they are again monetize everything with nowing better it will not help on long run and comos and gold explode..
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou were right about Soros. I remember you questioning his reasons for saying gold was too high. But he bought paper gold etf????
I plan to keep my gold for the long term. To be honest, Pred, if I had a bias it would be long.
There is an indicator called the Inertia Indicator that is supposed to give advance warning on a sell off of the market. Have any of you heard of it?
hi shirley
ReplyDeletehm yes question is good he bought etf more looking he wants to make a short or medium term trade..
hm i dont know that indicator to indicators iam very sceptical (dont know english vocabular) the are very good in showing u the past for some people the might be helpfull preventing them from buying to expensive..
so today seems is my day if dax manages to test lower boundary of trendchannel around 5600 will start taking some profit
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeletethe problem we have now is too bearish... this bearish have keep mefrom shorting the market...it never a good idea to short market on bearish environment, i like to short when everything is too good to be true... this is the type of the market i like to sell.... for i will hold on to my gust a keep all my long, will add more on the dip... let see how it play out..
Shirley, for the gold holding, if you planning to hold for long term , you can try to buy at lower value ...but if you have some nice profit you can take profit..
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI am also going to buy on a dip tomorrow if things continue as I have to leave today -some 2x etf's like fas, uco, etc. As far as gold - NG, I have a small profit right now and would like to keep for now even if gold corrects some. I will sell when I think the market is going to tank - many people think we will top at 1150-1200 range on the sp so I will watch those levels very closely to short in the future.
@Allen,
Your english is pretty good. Regarding indicators, that's why I always ask you guys about stuff, you and Pred are smart sceptics and I am a newbie:).
This rest from the market has been good for me. No big nerves now so ready for some action soon.
Good trading for all.
hi all, i need to know how would u all think given the following situation.
ReplyDeletego long CAAS which is showing strength in current weak mkt.
or go short silver which is showing weakness in current weak mkt?
i've taken my action, just wanna know how u guys trade differently
@mambo
ReplyDeletehm there a lot of markets out there to choose, if i want to short something.. i dont use the precious metals, is personal reason i would not make a big profit because i like that stuff to much..if position runs alittle against me i would be very scared to fast and sell with loss..if position is working i would also get to fast to scared to loose my profit and cash in so no way i could get a big winner that way..i know the seasonal charts that the weak months should come
its easier for me to short overvalued stock market with banks in dax making their markt to fantasy accounting...or shorting euros..
@preditor
yes to bearish is a good point..puhh iam very happy to got rid of most dangerous shorts,keeping some that cannot hurt me eaven if we reach a double top..dax still can defend lower boundary of upwards trendchannel so far..dont like to go long today this strong yen is scary..if dax is still in upwards trendchannel tomorror i go long if trendchannel gets broken for some hours i short the market again..@mambo so i cannot tell u today what doing tomorror depends on whats happening if bull is strong enough to keep dax in channel than its a good chance to catch atleast the 0,5-0,618 retracement of the downmove from today
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteGood play pal ... :)
Mambo,
My position is clear.. I am on the commodities side and current is bullish ..
Any dip is buy, but i got load of thing i n my hand now my position is in low level so still have some luxury to play with the market for a while ... just looking to cash out my position when the signal turn ..
I have already add oil at 78.40 and 15.8 gold @ 1100..
ReplyDeleteI have almost committed all my investment fund... betin big this time ... if eveything go as planned.. look forward a massive return
Technically, i bearish is currency... regarding burton talk which allen post the other day.
ReplyDeleteI do some research, he talk about velocity of money... he say he did not see the velocity increase in the economy which why he did not see inflation.
But i have different opinion you will see inflation first before we see the increase velocity of the money.
That mean i see the lost confident in flat currency which create inflation which will later increase the velocity of the money ..
Well this is something which is more fearful
i do not trade futures, only in equities. hence my exposure to silver is thru leveraged AGQ, sad to say i haven't see any green yet since the big green i had in january evaporated n i din cut loss. Is hard to cut loss after you saw your paper profit gone! :(
ReplyDeleteI'll be happy if silver can cross above 16.5.
Anyway I bought SVM (china silver stock) almost at low past few weeks & sold of yesterday for 11% gain. I guess this is just a hedge on my paper loss AGQ. but I learned to take profit in this kind of mkt. :)
Transfered the money from SVM into an existing CAAS holding seeing that it broke out from technical resistance and possible earnings play next week (not my intention to play earnings just so happen the stock rally for the earnings date). Hence I buy on strength.
Fundamentally, I see beginning of the year bullish for car sectors as everyone buys car normally in the beginning of the year.
mambo,
ReplyDeleteTake profit is the most important proccess for investor :)
hi
ReplyDeletehm start to not like my long pos in dax at moment charts in euro/dollar look more like going down to 1,30 without retracement will use some strenght today to sell around 5640-5680 and buying again into shorts for friday target 5520
puh this day has everything i like expected to take longer to get my target..took some profit at 5525 not taking all shorts out..took a small long pos to play a bounce..
ReplyDeleteWhy would the yen go up against so many currencies. Bad for Jap exports but I am too new to know what this means for markets. Is this a buy on dips or what? Gold is going up right now.
ReplyDelete@shirley
ReplyDeletehm to gold just technically i have on cards a downmove to 1045-1012 but i was often wrong with gold its tricky,like u said its showing strenght today..preditor got it more right
dax broke its upwardstrendchnnel i just play a bounce with lot of worry and no big pos my shorts that i still have are bigger..
like i told you every big move has a 70% chance to get retraced 0,5-0,618 so 100 downmove 50-60 points to catch on retracement but u never now was it the entire downmove
i bought on strong support so chances are good..but i will use any strenght of dax to buy shorts..technically looks dax broken maybe we have really seen the secound shoulder..
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteGoldseek.com, silverseek.com are both great resources on the precious metals.
Good luck.
Thanks guys, but I was wondering mostly about the yen. I thought it might be the start of something bad.
ReplyDeleteThanks Allen, for reminding me about re-tracement. What indicators are you using to look at gold. Anyway, I have been gone too much this week to do any trading. I missed lots of dips this week because of being too busy to monitor things.
@CBS, Thanks, I'll look at those sites.
@shirley
ReplyDeletehm u mean technical indicators, i have stoped looking at them long time ago..
of course i dont know future but there are some signs.. u should watch the important levls..like i said bevor this head and shoulders in dax..the pattern isnt finished yet just falid with breaking of neckline..there around is also 200mva u have seen what happend when dollarindex managed to cross this point...so incredibel strong support, all people who would like to go long will try to buy there, with tonns of stop loss around that levls.. so if that one gets broken dax is in no time at july lows at 4680..this could trigger alot of margin calls so the good stuff also gets sold like gold shortterm there could be forced goldselling for a short period of time, a shortterm oversupply and a great chance to buy cheap..
of course we can bounce from that levl and trade for some time sideways but u should also be prepared for worst chase what to do and so on...also nothing is better for the big guys than fear and panic to scare everybudy out buy cheap in again and make a hell lot of money *G*
and not forget if u want to short dont short lows try to get highs ..exeption would be if an important support is broken but thats also not easy often some stopfishing around that levls ..and u can run into a retracement
thats reason why i dont follow gold that close i have some if we bounce from that levl so nothing is running away..seasonal charts are also showing some weak months ahead for gold
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeletewhat a day.
It seem like my position still alive for another. No disheart. With so much pro lem so much more debt to sell ,my investment theme, have changed. I still very confident in my position and I think some thing big is about to happen.
Oil manage to rebound back with some minor loss, silver with minor gain and
gold at break even point. Like said a few day ago, any dip is a buy and timeing depend on your gust. Be brave when everyone is feared and be feared when every is brave. Greedy when every is feared and take profit when every is agreedy.
Just want to make is remark on flat currency, do dollar , euro or yen all this major currency have the real value of purchase , goverment still have so much debt to sell and so much promise to fullfilled. I am really quite worry. But my investment instinct is telling to buy some with real value and not promised value or obligation. All I have almost all my fund in investment base on my trading and style. Just like back in July - august when I wrote in my blog that the s&p will strike 1120. Commodities play out well. And I hit alot of bull eye trade. Sometime what I wrote is a foggy trend which is not easy to see but analysis the fundamental and trend, it just not make sent for me to sell stuff and hold onto flat currency. Except a few currency like Canadian, austrialia, brazil china yuan, India ruppe, norway krone, and a few more good currency.
hm maybe we are both right in some way we have or could get stagflation which almost everyone rules out because of philips curve and unemployment..could push stocks down somewhat and some comos up..next few weeks will decide alot..
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, Pred.
ReplyDeletehi pred
ReplyDeletesold my dax longs and bought some shorts at 5600 maybe a little to early is just small resistance
hm one word to economy like u said the must sell lot of treasurys,other countrys also more than ever demand is falling so prices of bound should go down to attract buyers with higher rates at the long end first than more and more to the short end..
that puts pressure on corparate bound market to rise rates..could money move away from risky assets and be draged because of higher rates into this markets thats the question..of course will take some time to play out
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think we both l;ooking from different point of view which is why the conclusion in playing the market is different..
I believe if the bond yield raise, too fast, you better jump from bond cause it will get ugly, but if you strong cash flow, buy 30 years bond when the yield id on the raise, it should get some handsome gain over time ...
Cause if yield jump fast, the Fed have to print more to pay debt , and i think that when the velocity of money will come into play ...
Recall whn i wrote in my blog last "when to sell your stock... I think wrote" sell your stock when real good news hit the market which till now i see only bad news from the west only good new appear from the east.
From i see, the US government and the Fed Do not want a strong dollar, well i think from this point view technically we are all in conflict mode of investment.
People sell to buy dollar cause of the economy worry and expect double dip in the mean time the new carry currency (?Dollar) the government want it to get weaker ..
There is confilct investment time and this year will not be easy years cause lot changes is coming to the market, the hidden or prolong unsolve will start to re-emerge so it is reality one of the most uncetain time. So i am more comfort with holding commoditites with real value (will take profit from time to time)
thx preditor for ur view..
ReplyDeletei take it very serious
have sleepless nights because lot things that i look not just technicals are not fitting together..
for exampel the big long pos of smart money in smp..
maybe this week has given us another hint to the puzzle...the hedge founds calling their media friends to tell the crowd go short euro to get rich...hehe it never works that easy the are in their position since dec u can see at timingcharts and sitting on big profits to cash out..maybe euro loses another one two cents to lure everybody in and than the start to cash out...at the same time we see small traders go short more and more on the lows in stocks..so if their game plays out in currencys that could create a rally to get rid of their big long pos in stocks squeeze the shorts again.. there others will think new big bullmarket is starting and start buying tops.. and than finally after all that market comes to my target july lows..that way lot of people would be forced to take big losses thats the setup iam looking for and trying to built my trades around
hm have an interresting market cycle analysis..
ReplyDeletesome targets are extreme but it worth taking a look..PEs over 100 at moment...for every dividend dollar s&p pays there are only about 30 cent earnings..
but like always could mean nothing in short run.. dot coms also managed to rise for a long time with no earnings and on incredibel pes but on long run..its always the same
http://www.godmode-trader.de/blog/rohstoff/2010/02/17/longwave-capital-kursziel-1000-punkte-fr-den-dow
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteToday, I bought a chile etf - large position. Already have a sell order in for when etf returns to almost its Friday close.
wow, shirley, i like your contrarion play!
ReplyDelete@Thanks Mambo, It feels great to be able to go back to studying the markets again. Been very busy.
ReplyDelete@Allen,
I saw a Bloomberg video featuring Marc Faber. He thinks the euro is oversold and is a good play right now to go long. If I had a forex account I would go long too. He also thinks the markets may correct 20% after going to 1150+ on the sp. I am tending to agree with him.
Well, drat. I had TRLG and sold when I panic last month. When earnings came out, the stock went up. Peter Lynch said in an interview that the most important organ for an investor is their gut and not their head. If I am an example, that is very true. On an up note, NG is doing very well. I have an order to sell at 6.15 and this time I won't change it as we may go into the slower gold season soon plus a stock correction sooner or later. I hope to get in early (around 1150 on sp) for a hopefully long ride down.
hi shirly
ReplyDeletegood to see u protect urself with stops..could work great your trade walking ur way up on the corpses of the shorters which tryed to short lows hehe
since last weeks selloff my pos is ok again.. missed todays upmove gap up opening never got closed in dax no chance for me to come in..will look closley at this 5730-5750resistance area if market is strong enough to beat this levl will also try to grap some points on long site..
faber got lot of good calls this year.. last year he maybe was to soon to berish i hope hes right iam also looking if we can go higher for more risky shorts again..
hm one word to currency trade..was thinking going in but on my conditions i want to have real strong support in my back..that would be 1,30 euro/dollar so i could take a cloaser stop..trendfollowing crowd use lot of this highfrequenzy scalping machines to optimice perfomance the always cloase one tradingdirection..have still some wheat and corn if this euro bounce comes and iam missing it there should also be some profit in for me
ReplyDeleteHi every one,
ReplyDeleteHave you take note of something yestersday trading.
Equity gain in strength same as dollar.. and bond end flat... ths is one of the weird trading day ... something is changing here...
Commoditites oil gold hold ground in the wake of dollar strength..
Somthing fishy here ..
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteWhat I really noticed yesterday were the big swings in the price of oil. That made no sense to me. Now, nat gas has been upgraded by GS. Perhaps that is a clue.
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI am worry of flat currency...
Wih the strength of dollar, the gold should be down same as for oil, but i think someone is using the strength of the dollar to deversify out of dollar into commodities without effect the strength of the dollar ...
like i say something fishy...
I have made soild gain in my S&P about @ 1058 .. looking to take some profit
Oil and gold .. will set to shine once the dollar resume weak trand which i think the proccess is already begining .. I am looking to short dollar big time but will wait for the opportunity for a while .. patient will earn big i think
Yes, Pred,
ReplyDeleteYou are right. Something is really fishy. With the gold, tho, you have factors like this month is usually not good for gold. Also, the IMF is going to sell gold soon. And the market is getting toppy. So much to consider.
hi pred,
ReplyDeletegood point currency moves are very confusing now..
grats to ur trades hehe gold goes again trought the roof..
wheat and corn driving me crazy i have a few hours green numbers yesterday than the sell of again hmpf i hoped for the long etfs the usually do their buying in the first days of month
dax took small risk on longs 5750 is broken upper boundary of trendchannel is at 5890 there would be a shortchance but i still remember to good the very painfull week sitting on shorts way down two weeks ago hm this time the bull has more power
Good day for me. Yesterday, I bought ECH, JADE, DF near lows. Sold 1/2 of ECH @ 55.49 - the high today which is my yesterday sell order. Also, sold NG @ 6.15 for good profit. JADE was my best as I had an order from yesterday to sell at 2.69, but it opened at 2.75 so I got over 10% in one day. Holding DF but have already an order to sell for 10% whenever that happens. I'm slightly bearish for tomorrow so learning to take profits.
ReplyDeletehi allen,
ReplyDeleteThank, it seem like we take turn....
...
Hi Shirley.
Base on my calculation... this rally will be a mighty one and will last for a while. If i am not wrong .. i am bracing myself for this senario ..
hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteIt seem like you are sounding like day trader ..
and take profit from time to time ... it seem like you are on the route to found your own style which is great ... each and everyone need to have unique style in playing the market..
I like future, cause if you hit right you gain very hansomely .
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteYes I am developing a style, but I don't always plan to day trade - too much profit for scottrade.:) Just do not want to sit on profits right now. You may be right about a rally tho.
BTW, hope your family continues to do well.
hi everyone,
ReplyDeletehow you guy are doiing.. hope everyone is doing well
Are you still believing this rally will last for a while Pred ?
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteAny new thoughts? The dollar and equities continue to go up together??? Silver is looking good so far today but gold and oil is a bit lower. Really doesn't make sense to me. (ECH is close to my target). Will be gone most of today.
Take care and happy trading to all.
hi pred, i'm surprise to say my paper loss on my silver via AGQ is now back to b/e n some profit at a spike yesterday! m not selling it, not selling it yet! controlling my psychology is hard!
ReplyDeletehi pred,
ReplyDeletegot little scared today from currencys took some profit on longs..rest of pos i let stop out if this strong support 5750-5730 gets beaten..but thers a gap thats after 2 days isnt cloased in dax so chances are not bad i get rest to my target 5890 there i buying some riskier shorts again upper boundary of trendchannel..have i said that i hate corn and wheat its about the 3rd month that i suffer in this positions hehe
Hi everyone.
ReplyDeleteAndrea,
think the rally will last a while as they have already input the new position worldwide, right now "they" have not yet convincing the small trader that about the rally... i believe the rally is still on the way. ...
Mambo,
Precious metal is the best hedge for uncertain time ... and don't forget to take profit from time to time.
Rebound give hope but you have to take profit from time to time ..
Hi Shirley
The world is flood with flat currency... i only see inflation a head of us ..so i will not be surprise to lot of staff got inflated..
Allen,
Good to hear from you
Thanks pred for the advice. protect profit will be tatooed in my mind now.
ReplyDeleteeveryone, mkt today is explosive. would like to hear what you all think?
hi mambo
ReplyDeletesold my long and bought some short dax etf and some turbos no very big risk ko 6500..dont want to take to big short risk at moment all this opening gaps that are not getting cloased and so on are some warning for bear but there comes big resistance of trendchannel 5890 and iam shorting weekly high u normaly always come out with profit if u buy a weekly low or short a weekly high..6 updays in row impressive preditor again hit bulleye question is are enough shorters to squeeze still around to fuel the rally more..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI am almost all out of the market right now. I'm leaning bearish too, Allen, but right now I'm not eager to up any money behind it. Learning to be more cautious like you. I did buy a little SIAF but I am beginning to question that move. I wished I waited to see markets on Monday.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeletegood to hear everyone is still doing well.
I suspect the big fund is shifting out of dollar.
So I believe this just starting. Not sure but recently the movement is very fishy
anyway. Take profit is a good play.
Have a good weekend.
Hi everyone
ReplyDeletethis week I have being going over the blog which I wrote throight out last years. It is not a bad idea if you all go back to revise my thinking and commentary which I wrote last years. Alot of good stuff and lot of thing start to develop according to what I wrote last years. It should take out some of the good during the weekend but it worth to have a look back.
Great weekend eveyone
hi pred
ReplyDeleteyes its funny what we have thought back in time is like a trading manual...
my plan for the next week is if bull is still strong than no correction should beat this 5750-5730 area thats my profittarget for shorts and there around would be a great chance to go long with cloase stops..
timingcharts give not a lot of hints still no profittaking from smart money and the small traders just reduced their shorts allitle hm
asian mkt is on fire today monday. took some profit last friday. :)
ReplyDeletebut also re-enter long on HERO for some reflation play.
Hi everyone..
ReplyDeletePred, what´s your opinion about gold ? which would be a good entry point in your opinion
Thanks
Hello Pred,
ReplyDeleteI am studying for series 7/63 exam, and will enter the field as a liscensed professional within 6 months. Any advice for a person who is just getting started in an investing career. What do you look at to form strategy for macro view, and reap "handsome profits". I think I need to start looking at the big picture, instead of just day/swing trade style.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteYesterday and today seems like a pivotal point. First gold goes down and then today its oil too. I'm thinking we are going to have a short term correction in the market. I bought some FAZ and TZA yesterday and added to FAZ today. We'll see. Also, bought some KONG today. They report earnings on 3/16 but I hope to get out with 10% profit before that date. Good luck to all.
hi
ReplyDeletehmpf i thought today i could cash in with my shorts didnt take profit, no stops to protect profits hmpf and now that hehe ok at least opening gaps in dax getting cloased keeping shorts and waiting..
to gold i was often wrong with gold but one thing i know if euro/dollar really manages to hit 1,30 strong support i add a larger pos to my mining etf that should be a shortterm buttom
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteToday has again been hard to understand as shorts are being teased with a few minutes of profit and then market goes up, I'm holding shorts too but won't add as I'm not sure. Markets are crazy. RIMM pushed thru resistant yesterday so I bought today at 74.00. Hedge on market. :)
HI CBS,
ReplyDeleteTo be good investor, you have to understand your own fear and greedy ...
The next chapter will be analysis the changing trend .... base on real logic and realistic ...
Hi Andreas,
ReplyDeleteIt will depend how you would like to play the Gold Market. If you would like to play on speculation then wait for a dip to buy close position with every 4-5% in gain
If you are long term holding and have the stomach when the gold price fell hard, then you can enter @ current level. (I am not saying the market will fell hard, just want you to be prepared anything can happen)
Hi Shirley and Allen,
ReplyDeleteThe reason that i ask everyone to back to the past years trading comment is that you can revised and position your in the wake of Trasury auction period.
I come up with a theory which should be interesting base on last year trading..
I will call it a "force sell and buy" during the treasury period.
During the treasury, the "big guy" and the government are eager to sell more treasury so, to ignite the market, they will try to force trader to sell something which they want to buy something which they don't want or want to get rid off.
Now you got to be carfully when play with the news. Treasury is very over supply, with the china trade surplus is diminishing fast, i think the auction for 10 years should not be as good as the 3 years which have complete the auction yestersday.
From yestersday market movement the market manage to rebound back nicely, so today we might see a short term pressure another today in equity and all assest class, not sure if it wise to short the market.
Like said last weak, base on my calculation the rally will be still be on ..
As for Gold if there is any dip around US$1110, should be a first good position to enter long, the next target should be US$1080.00.. I mean if there is a sell off which i did not see any chance to happen soon.
hi pred,
ReplyDeletereally interresting thoughts..
austrian gov starts raising lots of money again for emergency, the have prolonged naked short selling is not allowed on austrian banks just for specialists..we lend alot to eastern europe
dont know at moment looks like england getting some attention some wild movement in pound but england is big and normaly the weaker ones should struggle first so maybe next hit is coming from eastern europe..
i also think what dohmen misses when he talks about inflation deflation is look at iceland ok is extrem exampel there it come overnight the are now in stagflation ecomomic stagnation and high inflation around 20% stagflation always comes very fast through currencys..
people who hided in stock market got crushed, everything down in value but coast of living exploded because of stagnation and now they cannot affort gold anymore..and because of their inbalanced economy just banking no production the dont profit from weak currency..
so maybe when crisis goes on and hits one country after another some more balanced economys could get more this japanese kind of downturn others when england really gets hit would end up more the iceland way..but thats something think needs years to play out
Ok Pred,
ReplyDeleteI agree that the market is going up. I closed all shorts with a small loss. As luck has it, my longs are going great. I have a large position in RIMM.
But I have a question. If the 10 year treasury auction does not go well, wouldn't the stock market go down? How are you playing this - short treasuries? or buying more commos? Sometimes I need more explanation to understand your reasoning.
Hi all,
ReplyDeletePerhaps I bought a little early but I bought a gold miner in Canada - exsff. It had a disappointing result last week and dropped 50%. I think they are in a good area to find gold and are near the property of another big miner. This is a long term play.
Hi Shirley.
ReplyDeleteUsually a sell of in treasury will result excess liquidity which this exccess liquidity will need to find a home.. normally to gold, oil or stock etc.
As we are still in treasury auction period, we might see a presure in the market..
When you position is for long term play... i advise not to look at the stock..
There is alot of changes coming to the market and a new trend is establishing .. So we will be in a very violatile market and speculative ..
The congress is passing addition benefit worth 200 billion, wwhich mean more treasury will need to be roll into the market ... well i see more more liquidity to be spend and more treasury in the market.
The Fed will begin to sop bond purchase program this should be interesting once the program is take off end of this month... I bet the program will be revive sooner then expect.. the economy is addicted to stimulas...
I guese we mght be about to enter a new inflation bull market ..and hope that we will not see hyper inflation soon cause this will get ugly real fast
hay hay hay, bought some gold today at $1108 :) , maybe $1080 is next, I don't know; so will have to hold for quite some time. Also, been watching FXI (china); could be, maybe another down leg? I hope so, would really like to buy some, but am too nervious about it right now.
ReplyDeleteSorry Pred, I´m trying to understand your words. Do you mean you see some presure to the downside in the market becuase of treasury auction period?
ReplyDeleteIt´s everything very volatile. I´m playing some VIX but I´m not sure that I can stomach it.
Thank you for your insights Pred, they´re always very useful.
Hi Andreas,
ReplyDeleteUsually during the treasury period, the market will with draw liquiditity from the market, from gold , stock and oil like the pattern we saw in the 3-4 quarter of last years trading.
But each time after the auction, the market(Gold, oil, stock) move higher, which mean each time the auction there is exccess liquidity (QE) ,
However, for current auction i see different trend establish, stock remain in sideway up momentum during the auction with very brief pressure in the market, only gold is effected .. which something very fishy in this move ...
hi PRED,
ReplyDeletethere are rumors that china will tighten her grip on inflation possibily next week, could you give us different senarios how they might do this and what would be the consequences of each senario.
thanks for sharing your thoughts
chris
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI think the Chinese , will use wait and see as they have already have try to curb the property bubble . I don't think it will wise for them to slam more brake to their economy causes the inflation number during the Chinese new years can be distort . The grow will still needed. One thing foe sure is the bond is in dookie and I betting more down pressure to come in us tresury which I think the rally in equity and commodities will continue within the next two traing two session
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePreditor:
ReplyDeleteRelative to China, what do you think about the upcoming Treasury Department report due on April 15 that may label China as a currency manipulator?
I think that employmeent in the US will not improve and for the upcoming elections the American polititions will need to blame someone. So, maybe, the Democrats will blame the CNY/dollar peg and say its all China's fault that the American unemployment is so high.
Considering what the US goverment has been doing to Toyota in America, do you think some type of trade war with China is possible?
hi
ReplyDeletehm so my plan for week if bull still rules no pullback should break 5750-5730 in dax i try to get as cloase as possibel this week there around a long pos, still shorts in place,if we go abouve 6100 houly cloase will be forced to cut shorts..
euro/dollar also gets interresting is cloase to upper boundary of downwards trendchannel..
hi allen, eur/us i only see downward trend on 4hr. everything else still looks like breakout or daily and monthly uptrend. I am long Eur/us, hope it pays off =). My cad/us really made me some $$$ 10 contracts @600pips close.
ReplyDeletehey everyone, if your always searching for good trading ideas, there are a couple of names i wanted to give out - Larry Williams and Glen Ring, larry is actually a personal acquaintance. Both guys are proven traders and just like Pred, i usually heed their advise when it comes to trading..
ReplyDeletehi chris
ReplyDeletehm iam looking at a daily chart theres the big downward channel since dec..
finding the ema52 in daily very important also trendfollowing crowd may start to optimice tradingdirection in their scalpingprogs in other direction if a daily ema52 gets broken..have no currency trade going now but will take one if daily cloase is above ema52 or we go down to this big support 1,30
i'm bullish as long as we don't go below 1.30, i got in at 1.3550. From what i can tell this weakness in the euro was just a overreaction to greece.
ReplyDeleteYep and now its moved onto the pound. TBH i think all this governments going bankrupt gossip is just short term nonsense. It takes along time for these events to playout. I guess we can make money off the emotional extremes ;)
ReplyDeleteHi Bob,
ReplyDeleteI think it is no use for US to China as a currency manipulator..
I think agree with Pual krugmen if Chinese allow the Yuan to increase value, the world economy will growth at higher rate.
Ok back to your question on treasury..
First there is abit different between the treasury and the government. Treasury will try to sell as much treasury so if from this point view they should not try to provoke the chinese but not in the case for Politician...
there is great possible that the US might go into trade war with a lot of country but doubt it will happen soon... this trade war will take sometime to emerge ...
For commentary,
Yestersday the sell off did not happen manage to re-emerge before closing, I think another wave of rally is underway which should be on for quite sometime ..
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteI forget to include the final comment on "will the treasury label chinese as currency manipultor..
Come to think, one of way for chinese to have ample dollar to buy treasury is to manipulte the currency which they can sell yuan to buy dollar then use buy treasury in the end result this sould not be a bad deal for the treasury ... i guese the treasury should not or will not pont finger at the chinese as the currency manipultor, if not, japanese will also be another currency manipulator.
cheer everyone
Hi Bob, I'm considering buying the Vietnamese etf, VMN.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I took a small position in ES. They have a new contract with a Chinese firm to manage their nuclear waste. Stock is at a 52 week low due to some problems in Utah. They have big contracts out but the CEO quit and is selling his shares right now so might be a low price for a while. I may add to position.
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteThe bounce in commodities is going strong. You were right about them going higher as the dollar went down. Do you have a target for gold silver and oil?
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI think Lot of people try to short from the top so, I am still feeling good for all my long. I think I will start to reduce my long in s&p soon. I brought the s&p index at average 1055 ,
I have almost 100 point in s&p. My target will be about 1200.
For gold I think we might see 1200 but the it will still be in side up momentum. The best w
to trade gold is take profit for every 3-5%
increase.
For oil will be a tricky , maybe it will hit $90 this time but I am still conservative on this number. If oil hit $85 within the next three session or this weekend then will might see the touch $90 inorder to see the short squeez
That's great Pred.:) Thanks for the info also.
ReplyDeleteYou are much more nimble than me to take profit on gold every 3-5%. It does seem to go up and down a lot tho.
Also, since the dollar has gone down and China/Japan aren't buying as much, why do you think treasuries yields changed that much.
Opps, that is, why aren't treasury yields higher?
ReplyDeleteHi shirley,
ReplyDeleteWell I think that mean there is exccess liquidity added to the market. ...
hi
ReplyDeletehm fighting hard to hedge some shorts, not doing that great at moment, ..this liquidity bull is terribel strong..
goldprice in euros goes from one record high to another hm there also time is running in my country i can get without registration and taxes..but think as govermants struggel to get tax money, a tax on physical gold buying is something to expect in near future..but i hate paying record high price hm
secound plan would be instead of physical going the high risk way with some explorers and smaller companys ,but i like 100times more than buying papergold or calls or turbos on gold, the bigger ones i have in etf no need to buy them again..if something happens like greek first reaction was gold also gets a hit but than it was stronger than bevor could be a trend to watch..but if gold gets hit this smaller ones and explorers blood is running..the lose incredibel much..tricky game u cannot stand aside the whole time and watch and wait for next greek and if u go all in u maybe have no money to buy them when the are cheap..is a list from a friend he does great accumulating this ones..
Aurizon Mines 876086, Almaden Minerals 541551, Apollo Gold, 691373, Barrick Gold 870450, Coeur D Alene A0RNL2, Crescent Gold A0B5UM, DRD Gold
US26152H3012, Ecu Silver Mining 727523, First Majestic Silver A0LHKJ, Gammon Gold A0MU9E, Great Basin Gold 885375, Harmony Gold 864439
High River Gold mines 876240, IAM Gold 899657
Minco Gold A0MKB6 Minco Silver A0ESX5 Mines Management 157794 Novagold Ressources 905542
Pan American Silver 876617 Silver Wheaton
A0DPA9 Vista Gold A0MRZD Yamana Gold
357818
Allen,
ReplyDeleteInteresting pick of gold/silver stocks. Will do some research on them. What are those numbers you list after the stocks?
Also, you might check out check out EXSFF - Explor Resources. I found it after Marc Faber's newsletter last year - I think it was in May or June that he had another newsletter from Michael Balanger included with Marc's own newsletter that recommended the stock.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletecrescent, drd, iam, mincos are explorer the more risky stuff like put call options but with advantage that time is not runnign against u
the problem what i have with this list is i would like more canadian and australian because of currency..if u hold some stocks in this currencys and euro or dollar loses more to the comodity currencys u win without needing much higher gold price..buts a double edge sword u can turn this around drd as exampel is south afrika in rand, rand has problems and drdworkers laid down work in drd now the working again..thats why its so cheap now i took a small bet
ahh the number is just wkn european number, will take a look at exsff..question is always is now the right time better would be when another greek hits market to get this stuff cheaper hehe
ReplyDeleteHi Allen, Yes you are right about the timing. And I feel the same about South African miners. They have more strikes and unrest. I like RBY too as well as NG and would buy if they pulled back. There is another PM company I have never bought but have followed for a long time. It is COLUF. They are in S. America. I wish I had bought it last January when it first came on my radar and I have never seen it pull back significantly.
ReplyDeleteOh and one more thing about EXSFF. There is a miner next door to one of their locations. I can't remember how to spell the name of the miner. It's something like Exstra. They have all the infrastructure developed so that if EXSFF ever hit a real big find, they would possibly want to buy them out at a better price than other explorer companies. Also, I got an email from the president after I emailed the company asking why the price had dropped so much. Here was his response:
ReplyDeleteThe stock price fell because of the expectation of high grade in the press release. Unfortunately this was not the case. The drill program was not designed to drill for high grade but to confirm the model that the mineralized structure was continuous to depth. This was confirmed with 4 drill holes that defined the mineralized structure at 400 to 600 meters of vertical depth and a length of 900 meters.
The previous operators of this project had defined the structure to 350 meters of vertical depth and confirmed to 350 meters of strike length. We now have 900 meters of strike length. This is a very positive development. The structure is also open at depth and at both ends. The intersection of numerous low grade zones in each hole is also very positive. As this confirms the model of parallel veins in the system. The model is the Hollinger-McIntyre System as stated in the press release.
The fact that we announced a 20,000 meter drill program shows the confidence we have in the model. If we had not been able to confirm the model as evident by the results in the press release then we would not have announced a phase 2 program of 20,000 meters. The next phase of diamond drilling will be designed to test the structure at 800 to 1000 meters of vertical depth. We will be looking for continuity and grade. Best.
The company is fine we have the money in the bank and will start the phase 2 by the end of the month. As to the decline in share price The principal reason is that many investors do not understand the implication of the confirmation of the model. Many investors are just traders that are in and out and want instant high grade results. That rarely happens. West Timmins Minining hit their major intersection on a wedge off of hole #68 Not on hole 6, 7 or 8
Lakeshore had a similar experience next door.
Regards
Chris Dupont P.Eng
Hi shirley..
ReplyDeletethat is what value investor do ...ask from the source ...
it is one of the best way of investment ....
uhh..could somebody tell me why the bottom just dropped out of gold...??? I just on it @1109, just because it looked like panic..Any thoughts PRED?
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteI went on line to find out why gold is going down and HMS site mentioned the Greek situation resurfacing and India raising interest rates. Gold will be your friend again.
i was short gold @1126 with an exit of 1120 just 170 ounces. Nothing big but i took a long position @1109. I think it will rebound slightly.
ReplyDeleteRIMM is not making me happy and I have a large position. But, with so many days up in the market, I bought some insurance over the last two days - BGZ.
ReplyDeleteAnd, if anyone buys EXSFF, it is has always been a crazy stock. It went down 6% yesterday and is up right now even though gold is down.
I'm not adding to anything today as Congress is voting on health care - probably on Sunday. I thought about selling all longs but have decided to ride it out.
shirley, in the short term how do you think traders will respond to the dollar and gold if healthcare reform passes?
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteI do not trade currencies yet but in the long run, it has to be bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold. That said, I don't know about the short run so it would be better to ask Pred or check HMS site.
I'm disgusted with Congress, Bush and Obama. They are spending too much money and will cause much hardship and hyperinflation in the future.
I don't know whether anyone has been following FUQI but would be interested in your thoughts. Also, a lot of other Chinese stocks like RINO, CSKI, etc. have gone down due to FUQI. I'm thinking of nibbling in somewhere. Also, I have another stock that I think is super cheap - RHGP. They want to uplist to the AMEX directly from the pinks.
Pred,
ReplyDeleteWhy did the market and the dollar go up and gold down after this health care passed. It makes no sense to me.
hi shurly
ReplyDeletemaybe just technical play gold weakend as euro/dollar not managed to break that big downchannel in daily chart, so thers still a chance to go down to 1,30.. positions of smart money dollar longs decling also euro shorts declining maybe a final downmove to 1,30..
i hope they dont bailout greek in shortrun pressure for euro but long run the best dont through good after bad money i hope merkel can stop that..
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteThere is so much in the currency markets that move the other markets that I can't yet understand. I seem to be better at picking stocks. (I bought a little FUQI today). The general movements of the market are something I want to understand but I beginning to think that I have to go with my strengths and maybe in time I will get the macro view.
As far as bailouts, I agree - I'm sick of them.
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteTrying to detect the trend for short term is a dangerous play, right now when you take a position,
You need to know the long term changes.
1) Dollar trend is down and Gold trend is up.
2) World economy is trying to growth in absent of consumer from europe and USA which consumer from Asia is gaining momentum.. Economy throughiyt asia is rasing interest rate ... seem like the inflation will be hard to tame when the consumer in Asia start to consume...
@ Chris
Gold , i think is finding long term support just like the when gold is tradin @ 912 - 950 during the fourth quarter of 2009 before a new out break.
Short play for Gold is to take profit for every 3-5% , be on the long side, buy on dip
Oil, it seem to me that "short trap" ranging from 83 - 80.00 have being established so i think the oil will have a new break out to the new high soon... which should create a short squeeze... let see if this come into play in the next few trading session
This rally will start to make sense in 2-3 week from now , i believe alot of people is starting to short the market ...which still make me comfortable for my long .... if the short squeeze start to iginate which i believed this will happen soon, the market will be quite explsive to the upside side
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteHow is your trading? Today, I bought RHGP @ 2.15. Tomorrow, if FUQI looks to be closing up again for the third day, I will increase my position. That is , if it goes up a small amount. There is confusion about whether they will report earnings tomorrow. ES finally took off. I only have a small position and will not chase the trade but will buy if it pulls back some.
I was thinking about why the market moves in strange patterns - at least to me. One reason is because the specialists want to confuse others. In one area specialists and all of us are on even ground and that is 'acts of God'. No one knows when there will be an earthquake, volcanic eruptions, etc. Those events can't be staged.
hi
ReplyDeletehm basically making no money in march, after a real great feb, my best stock is orko silver but i dont want to cash in i have enough value at risk cash in euros..
fed is to successfull in pumping money in,dax hasnt made a new high but just question of time..so still a little chance because of that greek disaster to reduce some of my shorts to a better price if 6100 gets beaten i target with my longs 6400 and take some loss..
maybe we get soon a good chance to get some miners cheap euro dollar targets 1,30 buts tricky game last time i also waited that gold touches 200mva and others were faster with buying..
like preditor said dollar might look strong but in reality its just euro weakness at moment the oneeyed fighting the blind
Allen,
ReplyDeleteI really enjoy your humor.:) So far this year, I have taken a beating in Jan. and Feb., but March is an improvment. FUQI is shooting up at the moment so may not get another opportunity to buy more. I put in an order for $11.22. Bought ES again on a pullback.
Ok. I moved order to 11.70 on FUQI and it was filled. Hope I didn't make a mistake. Gold is looking very interesting. May be time to buy like Pred said. I will wait til tom. as I have to go right now.
ReplyDeleteGood trading.
Hi Everyone.
ReplyDeleteI am bearish in all currency, currency which have fundamental support would like to get weaken and currency which do not fundmental support have the luxry of pumping cash into the market , the end result should be inflation. inflation not because of demand and supply but inflation due to the devalue of currency in long run.
I am looking to short dollar and will start to pile in short in dollar soon.
Treasury got sold off and dollar gain in strength.. this is not making any sense ....
Market seem to focus on euro problem and did not take notice is small emerging economy currency trend ... like thailand, malaysia, etc ... Allen and shirley, there is a great inflow of foreign fund to Asia since begining of this month, while other people are concentrating on shorting euro buying dollar ... it is worth to make some research on this if you have time...
Yestersday trading is another conflict day of investment ... to me at least ... the recent strength in dollar and sell of in treasury should not bold well for us economy in the few quarter..
The recent weakness in euro, i think the EURO zone economy look quite bullish to me in the next few quarter due to EURO weakness..
I think the EURO currency is start to look to me ... I might start to buy some euro/dollar @ 1.25 - 1.30 range and short dollar @ the same range .. but becareful, before investing . please be sure to make deep analysis and thinking, be confident on investment and make invest ment, cause this is highly speculative market, you will lure to make mistake .....
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI still follow the comments here, as you seem to be gifted with wisdom and also a good instinct for time. I am mostly short term day/swing trader, but I am trying to modify style for a longer term outlook. Or maybe have separate long, day, swing accounts. I truly value your analysis. What do you see happening in th Precious metals near to intermediate term?
Thanks, and I hope you and your family are well.
Ps. @ Shirley you seem to really be coming into your own. You must work tirelessly at all you do. I also appreciate your inquisitivness, it always causes me to consider things from a different angle. I am still holding a core of miners and juniors, added some yesterday. I also like ALC.
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comments and warnings. Where do you find your info on the values of currencies in Thailand and Malaysia. Also, where do you find info on where the big money is flowing?
Hi Pred, I found the charts on currencies. I'm posting a chart on the baht (Thailand here for others):
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDTHB=X#chart2:symbol=usdthb=x;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined).
The chart looks almost like the inverse of the stock market. Are you perhaps saying that 'your bear hat' is going on soon? How would you play this - buy baht and sell dollar? Stocks will most like go down in Thailand and Maylasia - if they go down in the US. I may fund my new account that was opened to learn to trade futures and use it for the currency market but sorry to say Pred, I will need hand held if I do.
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteWhen i look at stock market, i look at all stock exchange world wide..
When i see some out break in any market, i will do market investigate which i will then use it as reference to piece my trading strategy and plan my next step ...
Now you guy need to really take a good @ euro currency and find opportunity to enter long ...
I think the euro currency will be set to bound, and especial dax, i see the sun shine in germany economy and i think the economy from germanay and some euro zone will be looking in the next quarter to come.
Euro will not break and will be back and stage a stronger come back then dollar .. patient will bring be very profit trade
Shirley,
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the graph thai baht graph, you should check 1 month back, then you will see the different
hi pred
ReplyDeleteyes really good points, germany is export driven, some wildcards are in game can eu stick together, the are burocrats and so on german crowd getting angry..
a change in trend in currencys is very tricky to trade..we have seen some reduction of shorts and dollar longs in cot report i hope we can see more this week..when i see smart money go long euro and short dollar again that would be nice *G*..also for my hammerd down wheat and corn..
2nd thing i want to see
technically currencys ore the scalping progs use the emas ,for a short swing a breaking of ema52 and waiting for one ore two hourly cloase get higher chance thats no false brakeout
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/60/
for a major trendchange an pos trades i only used the ema52 in daily charts its a very big event if that one gets broken
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
than trendfollowing crowd turns scalping progs around and optimice them in other trading direction..thats my very simpel aproach but brings profit drawback that way u always miss the first few cents but ur chance hitting trend right are high, think if all matches together ur fundamental view my technicals and smart money than i take a bigger bet..
an interresting video, gold manipulation is nothing that new...and has also something good to it, to give us lot of chances when prices comes down ,but at some point when the last piece of the puzzle the velocity of money comes into play than i think hsbc and jp need another bailout hehe
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9bU0r6JP4s&NR=1