Hi Everyone,
I have wrote since last 2 week that the stock rally rally will start to make sense in 2-3 weeks from now ... it seem like the rally support new is starting to hit the market ...
Recall when i wrote month ago about US is in re-stock mode not only US but technically the who;e world is re-stock...with US government job stimulas hitting the market starting next month .. I guese the market rally will extended ...
US outlook for the next two quarter the job situation in USA will start show strong sign of rebound but should be a temporary one ...rally is sweet but becareful once the news is too good to be true ... sell into the rally and start pile short .. from now the new rolling will be fundamental supported news .
the recent strong dollar might not be conincident, if dollar strength during inventories re-stock it mean that US is paying cheaper for good in exchange for dollar which be good for consumer as they will pay cheaper .... it is another way of stimulus spending while keep the inflation in check which will support bond.
However it sad that the job creation from export sector might have the side effect from the dollarstrength, if the dollar continues to march toward 85 (when compare with major currency) which i see there is some chance but still conservative.. then i think the trade deficit for US and trade partner will be widen which should not be good for dollar in long run but for short run it is like heroine (too good to be true)as matter of fact i believe the coming trade report should show huge increase in deficit .... which mean the government will need to auction more treasury... this is not going to look good my friend ..
====
EURO
The recent Greek and Portugal problem is still weight some pressure on EURO with Spain, italy is on the list of joining the list ...EURO dollar stll look bearsh for now
The way EURO handle greek for me i think it really fixed long term deficit problem for EURO zone economy, not only Greek but all member in EURO zone but there will short term plain for economy ...but good for long run ...
In short term the Euro will still be under pressure but it will help the EURO fixed the trade deficit faster ....well maybe the Greek and Protugal will export more in the next quarter same for another Euro zone member.some their number is expect to be good or very good .
Depend on how weak is the EURO...
I am turning bullish on Euro zone economy except UK and Ireland.
Euro equites should continues side way momentum so i am happy for you if you still ply on the long side.. when to start selling stock in EURO economy ... my play is when the EUro start gaining strength, i mean real strength like 1.45 mark ..
Euro dollar:
Short term bearish 1-2 month.
Long term bullish.
Will start to place long position @ 1.25 ... now cross my finger ...
Strategy:
Short term strategy short EURO on strength like 1.35 -1.37 take profit every 1-2 precent. becarful don;t let the greediness get hold of you..
===============
Oil and Nagas.
I am still bullish on Oil bearish on Natgas....two week ago i wrote some commentary on oil and Natgas in http://seekingalpha.com/ section"commoditites today" you can detect my commentary as "predictor1976"
I wrote about Natgas as bearish since the price is about US$5.36...this is the link which post my commentary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192214-today-in-commodities-march-madness?source=commenter
Please on the thought here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/192779-today-in-commodities-a-year-later-are-we-any-better-off?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/193992-today-in-commodities-a-delusional-fed?source=commenter
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195828-today-in-commodities-keeping-the-faith?source=commenter
I think maintaining my first target for oil is US$85.00, if this mark touch then we will see US$90 - 95 mark.
Strategy= Long position , hold
Now i am waiting for short squeeze senario to happen in oil, which only U$90- 95 will effect force lot of short to cover this is the area where i will start to pile my short ....
=============
For gold and other commodites i will try to updatew again later ... will extend commentary
============
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Thanks Pred for the comments. You were sure right about the drop in nat gas prices. The Seeking Alpha writer has not been calling it right on some of the commodities.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Pred, I looked at Thailand currency again. It really hasn't changed that much in one month. I think I'm missing something you are trying to tell us. I think that happens to me a lot.
Well, I'm waiting right now for earnings for HPJ. Hope they hit it out of the ballpark tom.
RIMM bothers me as there was an upgrade by JPM on Friday when earnings come out this Wednesday. Makes me think specialists want to dump shares on unsuspecting investors prior to earnings. (Once I've learn how specialists manipulate, I'm very cynical).
How is every one doing? Hope you had a good weekend.
hi pred,
ReplyDeleteread some of the links, really great calls on nat gas u think will move like last year so we have to wait about half a year to think on buying, i hope u keep us update when u take action..
hm on timingcharts thers something going on first time since a jear small traders go long and large took their profit and have a small short pos..iam feeling like coming to late to party after missing most of this rally..just carefully buying some dips with cloase stops intraday
Hey Pred. Fantastic analysis as usual. I see it the same. Would you consider posting a separate article about the steps to take when forming an intermediate/long term strategy and investing plan. I am trying to put the puzzle together. For example:
ReplyDeletestep 1 - Research A, B, and C etc
step 2 - Compare charts
step 3 - consider news
If you could fill in the steps with what a basic analysis would require, I would be eternally grateful. Or if you do not have time, maybe you could refer me to a good book.
Thanks a million from California..:)
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeletethe equity market is quite top now, so you have to becareful if you going to play the long take profit every 1 percent or tighter margin
take care.
Hi Shirley,
my point on currency is that you have to compare the currency pattern with the stock market if there is any out break in any stock market then try to see any similar action in any market. It is abit long and complicate style, as the world is more connected and it seem to me that the trading world wide similar and tightly to link with each other... I will try to explain more in my future comm
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteThanks, I'll look again. Well, in spite of a few mistakes, I seemed to do better this month. I sold RIMM for small profit so I wouldn't mess up my month if stock misses on earnings. HPJ was a disappointment but I only had a small position.
I have been looking more and more at small cap China stocks. They are dirt cheap selling at very low multiples. My fave by far is RHGP. I decided to link a page if anyone is interested. Their PE is about 4x as they expect .52 earnings in 2010, do not have to pay tax in 2010 (maybe 2011 too), no debt, and will uplist to AMEX soon.:)
http://www.renhuang.com/NewsView.asp?id=64
Hi everyone!
ReplyDeleteThank you Pred for your analysis.Very helpfull
Allen, I also take notice of the huge sell off of large traders on timming charts, that level wasn´t seen since ends of october 2008.
Pred what´s your view about that point?
Thank you.
Pred and Allen, Are you thinking there will be a big correction soon as timing charts show large traders are going short?
ReplyDeleteAre either of you short?
I'm thinking of selling and locking gains however small.
Really glad I sold RIMM before earnings.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletehm u know i was playing a different setup in march thats why my performance is bad, simply jumped the gun on an idea and not looking whats going on, still have my shortdax eft and some knockouts ko 6500..have rolled some shorts to eurostoxx is much weaker than dax, about 10% of my money in shorts..max for dax i have around 6400 on cards..but will not take more action on shorts without some breaking of important levls.. intraday at moment i just continue what brings profit buying dips..
we have a first sign on timingcharts for a possibel correction, but last time they took profit markets continued to move up for some time..would also be not that bad to give gold a chance to catch up..
possibel target its just speculation all i know is i would cloase my shorts around 5750 thers the gap thats needs to be cloased..there could be some serious buying starting only if that levls breaks taking new ones but thats maybe to much in future at moment every dip gets bought..
Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply. You and Pred are great guys to teach all of us others what to look for.
Hope you hit some big gains in April.
hi pred, thanks for the update. i like how you analyze currency movement to business actions and ultimately a country's trade situation.
ReplyDeletePreditor:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your thoughts concerning the China / US trade relations. Based on this I bought FXI at and 41 plan to sell at 44. Like you say, see a profit grab it. :)
Do you have any thoughts on sugar? When I look at a 10 year $ chart (semilog) I see a lower support at (year) 2002, 2004, 2007, and 2008. With upper resistance at (year) 2000, 2006, and 2010. If the current trend continues then sugar may see channel lower support at about $12, although the $15 level is already picking up support! Of course there is the possibility of the bottom-bottom support line to be hit at about $8 or so (-30% lower than $12). I am leaning towards a long position scaling in at $13. Your thoughts or advice on price and entry method would be greatly appreciated.
Also, Happy Easter to every one! Happy trading.
PS: Allen, Shirley, Chris, CBS, Mambo ... any thoughts on sugar? Thanks.
I'm considering soybean meal (don't know much about sugar accept historically it is trading very low)
ReplyDeleteBob G.
ReplyDeleteWhen sugar dropped about 30% from its high, the news was all over it. No one made a call on it before or when it was on its way down. Funny how that works. After the big moves, it seems that nothing much happens, but other than that, I havn't followed sugar.
Bob, I have perceived that you are a pretty smart investor. Very methodical, like Allen. Pred sees the big pictures, and I am a detail person. May I request that you write your thoughts more often as this website could really be a good one for trading ideas. We are open and do not critize others like other websites.
After seeing what has happened to RIMM over 6 months, I am in the process of finding stocks that have good fundamentals but have disappointed on earnings. There is a pattern of over-selling them and then a quick bounce of 5-10% in only a few days to a few weeks. I will be posting these on the site.
Hi Everyone hope you guy a great weekend.
ReplyDeleteThank you for you complementary on my thought..
Investment is like art which you need to analysis the changing trend with new formulae added to the market when policy changes.
For example when i talk about another country will depend less for USA import which the actually the US part would like to reduce deficit and bring home more job from over sea .. this is the most important changing trend.
Same as for the chinese the trade surplus is not sustainable so they will move toward more consuming economy, this will happen over time and more country will depend more on chinese or india brazi and a few more country..
=========
Well, the only which still a lag i think it is gold ... With Timmothy gartner will delay testamony on chinese currency manipulator well, like the treasury might find some wind in coming auction... stay tune i will dig up more o this issue
I'm in TSTC @ 15.00. Hope to take profits at 16.50.
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteYou said,
For example when i talk about another country will depend less for USA import which the actually the US part would like to reduce deficit and bring home more job from over sea .. this is the most important changing trend.
Same as for the chinese the trade surplus is not sustainable so they will move toward more consuming economy, this will happen over time and more country will depend more on chinese or india brazi and a few more country..
Is this the beginning of deleveraging of currencies from the US?
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteyes. I believe we in this senarios but the proccess will be long and frustration so it is not one shoot rocket.
Anyway it is gettingdifficult to see what the future will unfold. Bit it wide for us to be highly deversify in investment.
USA dollar is still savable but it will really need USA politician courage to act discipline on budget spending.
Us still have ample of natural resoures and undrilled oil so I think the if obama allow off shore drilling we should see improvement in budget deficit. We will leave that topic for another day.
I think we might see a belief correction in the market. Treasury look rookies but this place I will place some long this as the treasury auction is coming
this time we might see some rally before the auction
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean you will go long and then, after the treasury auction, you will sell since you believe there will be a correction?
Hi Shirley
ReplyDeleteSorry for my bad English.
I mean play short term play in treasury and take some profit in equity. I think we due for mild correction.
Buy some treasury for short term play
ReplyDeletepred,
ReplyDeletedo you think we should consider shorting the XAU/EUR cross? The charts look exhaustive...
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteToday i come across Aden sister commentary... they have similar trading idea like me... and their english is very good should make you have good understanding then me write broken english hehe
the link is here http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/aden_mar012010.html
hi
ReplyDeletewhat a run in gold, hope it manages breakout abouve 1150 than we could see new highs much sooner than expected..cannot imagine where this is going in 2nd half of year, now isnt eaven the strong season of gold hehe some of my miners exploding..
Hi Allen and everyone,
ReplyDeleteit seem like the gold is starting to heat up, but don't forget to take profit from time to time.
Hi Chris , sorry for the late commentary on your question.
ReplyDeleteIt is still not yet the time to short xau/eur with good profit. I am still short term bearish in euro and strong bullish in gold.
Euro still have some room to lower wait for a while more .
hi pred
ReplyDeleteeuro/yen crossing created sell euro signal ema52 in daily broken..started a small pos and will pyramid into if we get another one daily cloase under ema52
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurjpy/1440/
credit default swaps of greek starting to rise again
http://www.cmavision.com/market-data
580 was high in crisis than the went down to 200 now above 400 again..think now that hedge fonds casht in in stock pos, they want to get a very good price for their incredibel big short euro position, will be interesting how the try to create fear to get it..think we must look closley at gold if it can beak out abouve this 1150 highs there is some rome left to rally..lots of people in eurozone dont really want to sell miners from other country the are some hedge against declining euro, miners on your charts going down in value going up on a euro priced chart *G*..i let market disede if we break out in gold above this levl i keep adding to winners if not hm will take some profit and keep some as hedge..
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteAre you still expecting a correction in equity? Do you think today`s pullback will continue for some time??
Thank you
I took your advice and bought TLT at 87,50..it`s doing fine. I`m expecting getting out these days with a 4 or 5% gain.
Sorry about my english, but Ipm from Uruguay and for sure is pretty worst than yours..
Thank you all for the comments of this blog, they are very useful.
Andres
Where do you sell the long bond trade that you made? i'm thinking around 117.50 if it gets there
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIts been busy time for me. Thanks, Pred, for the Kitco commentary. I've never seen it. I have bookmarked the page and I'm going to start reading a lot of the various writers. I already have a book by James Turk that I bought about a year ago.
Again, I'm going to say that there are a lot of cheap China stocks with very low multiples. RHGP, SIAF, and FUQI took off. I sold FUQI before that at breakeven as I started to doubt myself. It's my Achilles heel and have to work on that. :(
Pred, I don't think its your English. I don't understand half of what is written on HMS site either. I'm just too new at this and do not have the skills and knowledge that you guys have. But I won't give up.
Have a great trading day.
PS. Glad, Allen, about your gold miners!!!!
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI've been busy researching Chinese stocks this week. SIAF may go up. It's set to announce a cash dividend pay date any day now. They're also supposed to file their Form 10 soon. I've also taken positions in ZSTN, ONP, YONG, CCME.
I'm thinking of buying SOKF. Does anyone know about this stock?
hi shirley..
ReplyDeleteon chinese stocks iam behind the curve i dont know them..
gold shows some weakness iam watching 1140-1150 there should be strong support if no reversal at this levls will start selling..
euro/dollar getting interresting first try breaking daily ema52 failed..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteWell, it seems the stock trend continues up. . I'm watching the commitment of traders on the mini sp.
What are your thoughts about wheat and corn. Marc Faber still likes wheat. Although I lightened, I have been sitting on this for some time too.
Shirley and Allen
ReplyDeleteIf you follow timming charts, on the mini sp long traders are still selling, and recently also small spec... But the markets continues to go higher.
hi
ReplyDelete@andres think is good to know where ur enemys bets are on timingcharts but i will not jump the gun again ,still continuing with this dip buying in dax..i also have no reason to sell my miners gold has defended my levls so far..
the most eciting thing is euro/dollar at moment at bouncing around at a very very important levl for trendfollowers the ema52 in daily chart
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
but we also now hedgefonds have big bets against euro, i expect there lots of big moves but the direction still somewhat unclear i hope it breaks to upside to give gold a big big boost..
@shirley
after taking some losses in wheat and corn and a painfull rollover, it really looks not that bad at moment for my remaining position but preditor knows this softs better..
think preditor would say when things start to look to good its getting dangerous to the makets*G*
we dont know when and at which levl it will start,so u can only play the game look for daily lows,protect urself with stops..watch yen crossings..
Hi Allen and Pred,
ReplyDeleteGS having SEC charges. That was late in coming.
Well, the timing charts have been showing an increase in large traders going more and more negative on the mini sp for a few weeks.
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
What do you guys think about the markets going forward. Looking more and more like a correction to me but I'm a newbie and would like your thoughts before I make any moves.
Shirley, I`m also a newbuie, but I have the same feeling.
ReplyDeleteSorry perhaps is a stupid question, but what`s the meaning of commercials in that chart?
I`m missing the toughts of Pred at this moments...
Andres,
ReplyDeleteI am missing the comments too.
As far as commercials, according to Allen, the commercials do not really look to make money as they are like the middleman- it sounds stupid but maybe Allen could explain them better as he once told me who they were. I think we mostly concentrate on the small and large traders. The large traders are considered the smart money. The small traders are the retail investors.
OK thank you Shirley
ReplyDeletehi shirley
ReplyDeletei expected big moves, but this time it was not to my advantage..a recap the moment euro tried to break the ema, i say a big selloff in euro/yen, hm i looked cnbc what gun hedgefonds could have fired...there u see soros! talking about deadly death spiral of greek.. hehe i love this guy always shows up when something goes wrong..is he again misleading crowd? like with gold time will tell...
took some profit on miners,selloff was to fast for me couldnt catch up with shorts in dax,so i bought a small long position for monday to play retracement,i dont short weekly lows..
gold selloff ended on the inverse sks neckline hard to say where it wants to go now,another trendline is about 20dollar lower..
on monday like sayed first iam playing for retracement in dax 6220-6240..than we have to see ,if fridays low gets taken out i short to target 6100..
this goldman news ok,i dont know what should there big come out, they sacrifice a pawn, pay some millions in worst case..somehow noone cares about commercial re there are the horribel losses...
but it will not help u if u think all weekend what can happen, just make a basic plan,when u want to short u know the friday lows..try to get a target for your shorts..
we know from timingcharts one group would profit ,if we get another one or two downdays, not only on their s&p shorts also on their euro/shorts which the start to reduce like dollar longs..one other thing is look at yen, the start to built there a short position u dont short yen if u believe in a really big selloff so maybe a mild correction..but thats just guessing we will see..
hm wanted not to write that much but next time something to commercials there u must watch not to mix things in the different markets..like currencys,commodities and so on..
Hey Pred why dont you just delete this blog if you dont have time to update. End it bro.
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI've been fairly busy. Hope everyone is doing well. I'm starting a 'cheat sheet' for myself on different possible crisis'. I don't always think well during the problem to analyze immediately. The first senarios are:
1. Earthquake in Chile - next day buy chile fund.
2. Bank Problem, like SEC investigation of GS - buy FAZ.
Anyone else want to add to this please write.
Be careful Shirley, sometimes all of these events are choreographed to perfection. Earthquakes and volcanoes are mother nature, and cannot be created, but the GS story certainly was only a dog and pony show to get some financial reform on the table. They may still go after GS, but look at the price action for GS on last friday, then right back up monday..
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone
ReplyDeleteJust back from vacation. after i hit sell button took my profit last three week, i decided to pull off my plup and head for a nice rest.. which is a good one... hope you guy understand, when i decided something is usually without plann especially with my vacation ...
Seem like i have a lot to catch up in the market... i will be back in good shape in two day ...
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think Soros will hate you cause you like to catch his lie .. Jim rogers and Soros used to be partner but they seem to have different in the way give commentary on the market.
If jim roger say buy, you better prepare to add some to your position.. but when soros say sell, you better find a position to enter long
hi pred
ReplyDeletegood ur back, but soros is incredibel good thats no question and again wins his bets..he paid alot for obama election seems was also good investment during crisis..
to markets whats going on hard to say i just continue my intraday dip buying..
what are u doing with gold pred are u waiting ore start buying..have sold some miners, than gold bounced back to 1150 ,now down again hm is this consolidation bevor a breakout in 2nd half of year, like last year around 900..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeletethe only posiion i have is in treasury which i brought three week again and some short in the S&P (small position)
now i have alot of cash position waiting to enter gold, and oil and to commoditity ...
Still have a lot of thing to catch up, i will update more ...
Hi Pred, Good to take vacation. Hope you are well and nice to hear you are back.
ReplyDeleteCBS, Thanks for the warning. My idea was to act quick for a one or two day ride.
Guys, I have run across a stock that you will at first laugh about but before you delete, look at these links:
http://go800corp.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOIG.PK
(there are more links to different articles)
This company sells a text messaging platform. It enables a company to put a text prompt in their advertising. Then, the customer texts the prompt on their cell phones. For example Geico Insurance -(ie, geicoGO800, or geico46800) and the company calls the customer back. This could be like the domain name scrabble that happened during the early days of the internet. One guy on the web said he texted a pizza company and got his pizza delivered in 30 minutes.
Advertisers will pay monthly charges to GOIG to have these keywords starting in June. Many companies are testing this platform right now since this was launched last week.
Good luck to all. :)
Hi everyone..
ReplyDeleteIs great to here from you again Pred .. I hope you`ve enjoyed your vacations...
Allen..watching timing charts it seems that large traders continues selling in the s&p mini chts, and now also small speculators..
There will be good to know yor opinion, also from you Pred, that we`ve really missed your comments the past weeks..
Thanks..
hi andres
ReplyDeletegood that u keep on watching this charts..when u look back to crash, large traders where a little to early with their buying and than market made another leg down..but that was no big prob for them the won on long run..so now its possibel the are a little to early with shorts,we will see..sure greek has brought back lots of volatility to market that scares also small traders..
the most interresting thing at moment in cot i find corn there u must take a look,entire short position is in hand of small traders..to me that smells like a big short squeeze ,iam whathing this one and have still bets running, just this greek thing could destroy this game,will be eciting how this plays out..
@shirley
hehe somehow u always have 1000 ideas..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteMaybe our corn, wheat may go up soon. The wheat crop in Australia has been hit by locust. Don't really want food prices to go up as many will suffer, but it will probably happen sooner or later - thus keeping some in my portfolio.
And, hey, Allen, I'm keeping the board lively with ideas. That way, you can make your one line zingers (witty jokes), which I enjoy. :)
I sold RHGP and ONP cuz they hit targets and I'm trying to lighten positions. Hoping my other targets hit next week and then, will stay mostly in cash cuz I'm thinking the large traders' on COT charts are perhaps telling of a correction soon. I'm also interested in Pred's opinions on the markets.
Hi Pred,CBS, Andres, Mambo, Chris and everyone.
Hope your weekend is fun.
Hey Shirl,
ReplyDeleteyou are increasing your knowledge and experience it seems rapidly. I am now working at a commodity brokerage. This is a career change for me. The RBOB trade I mentioned back in February was a home run, and is looking like it can be played once more before the summer driving season. If gas prices rise by 10 to 20 cents bet now and memorial day, a 100 percent profit is not unreasonable. Good luck to all.
CBS,
ReplyDeleteCongrats on your job and the profits on RBOB. I still haven't had the courage to trade the futures. Someday, I believe I will.
Hi Shirley and everyone,
ReplyDeleteThis is commodities moment, you can start with small position in future ... you will like it.
... i am writing a new post and will update by the next few day
hi
ReplyDeletewhat a selloff, hope s&p can cloase abouve 94 playing a retracement in dax target 6200
big rally in gold hmpf and i sold most miners lol
Wow, the euro is falling in value.
ReplyDeletePred or Allen,
do you think it will continue to go down?
I'm going out of town for a few days.
Sorry about the gold - it sure surprised me too.
Hope everyone is good.
hi shirley
ReplyDeleteyes euro is horribel,plan to do some physical gold buying earlier and to an horribel high price in euro but iam worried...
my retracement trade working nice, if u want to act shortterm keep watching this important levl in euro/yen is full of ema havy resistance ,have taken money off and wait how its plays out if euro/yen manages to break this point than high chance of surprising peaple again and climbing much higher,but if it bounces back it could lead stocks lower..
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurjpy/1440/
hi
ReplyDeletehm euro/yen managed to cross this resistance area followed buy a big spike in dax to 6205 than selloff..
cot report still shows no buying of smart money,no big change in positions, somehow everyone is waiting what happens next in greek..
large traders increase their euro shorts again iam looking for euro/dollar 1,35 -1,34 area for signs of reversal but would cloase if euro really crashes down at 1,30 theirs big support..
dax iam watching 6027 if it doesnt hold 5900 is next target..to upside 6168 is important..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteHow are you doing. It's been crazy for me. Can't believe the euro though. The Greeks got lucky - too many bail outs imho.
Will write more later.
Hey Pred,
Hope your update is soon.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletethx doing ok, have taken euro shorts earlier to protect my cash euros, euro didnt manage to bounce to my perfect shorting levls..but sticking there to plan exiting if 1,30 is reached..
iam short dax at moment, but iam carefull dax isnt really broken, and i always forget to prepare some eurostoxx shorts would be better to short weak ones first..but also plan to buy a extrem point in dax dont know how far we can move down today, dollar/yen is still not breaking down, but buying extreme points like always for a retracement game..if s&p manages to hold 94 during us trading to long i dont feel good on shorts..
Well Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou don't have to worry about sp holding 94. What a mess but it looks like your euro is hitting 130. What price point are you looking for in the $/yen? Are you thinking this is the correction we have all been looking for?
hehe yes no worry now..
ReplyDeleteyes think thats what preditor looked for,he always gets the tops, i always miss them but in trend is enough money to make..hehe
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-usdjpy/1440/
ok in forex i use just a very basic and simpel system the more important thing is always try to filter false signals out..like i told u this emas in different timeframes are for trendfollowers very important..the most important one that in daily charts..one thing is they act as support and resistance..the other is the trigger in some tradingsystems buy and sell orders if the ema12 crosses the ema 26..look at 15min chart u see the short therm buy and sell signals..but i dont compete on very low timeframes with progs there the have the advantage like blizzchess,i think iam better filtering signals if the are wrong stopfishing and so on..but its not always easy somethimes market has no direction and so on its a science..
to dax i want see cloase in snp 6027 is broken target is now 5900 in dax, dont know if i play it or just watch now iam out of shorts i had enough points..if 5900 really comes there would be good point for retracement trade maybe tomorror
the yen looks to be set up for a nice rally..
ReplyDeletehi
ReplyDeletehm industrial metalls getting killed iam short again eurostoxx this time i have found ones hehe and dax..
hm dollar yen still not breakes down thats something to worry for me at moment..
puhh what a day iam out of shorts again and trying retracement hope get it right and 5930 holds today as low..i love this action days..
ReplyDeletehi chris,
ReplyDeletegrats have u taken yen..what a week this is what we are waiting for watching the markets day in day out..nowhere u can make money that fast like in a falling maket..took big risk on eurostoxx shorts today and worked out i still cannot hold coffee cup without shaking hehe
i have a small position in the yen, i plan on taking profit in around 91. lost big time on the euro. overall for the last couple of months i'm up about 20%. US markets will most likely hold up fairly well, europe will take the beating, then i think things will level back out, then i'll start longing commodities. Pred hit this one right on...1.20 to 1.25 may be the entry point for the euro, things are moving at a really fast pace now...take care and good luck!
ReplyDeleteIt was unbelievable what happened today. It would be nice to know Pred`s opinion and comments...
ReplyDeletePREDITOR PREDITOR PREDITOR UPDATE NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAllen,
ReplyDeleteYou are so funny. I'm glad your shorts worked out for you. I'm lucky I sold China stocks as Marc Faber said things weren't right. I've been busy during market and its scary for me to short, but I'm wondering if this time the market is going to really correct as the libor is rising and the banks are relunctant to lend as much to each other. What are your thoughts, Allen, on this?
One lucky trade I've been in is 'penny stock' -IMJX which I bought yesterday and sold 1/3 at 100% profit. I think its going to run much higher. Same for ENTI.
hi shirley
ReplyDeletethat market goes down somewhat should have been no surprise to someone watching yen crossings ,but such a hard selloff wow..i was out of most shorts and in partymode drinking beer when it happen..hehe..than got some panik on my risky assets calls on wheat and corn i sold all out market..and chased gold with calls was also not that smart i hope i can escape there..somehow they always get me with gold like bevor dubei, i also had some calls on gold
but dont know what happend the computer trading progs have fired their sell orders like they should when yen rallys, i dont believe cnbc, that it was just a mistake..
but like always every move is followed buy a retracement dont make mistake shorting lows and buying highs..i try to stick to my game,trying getting daily highs and shorting eurostoxx..hope we can find something in n ew cot that gives us a hint..
also hope preditor finds some time..