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Saturday, May 15, 2010

Sad Thing in Thailand ... Red shirt protest is not about democracy

I am closely link to thailand and i have relative living there ...

Thailand is in grieved, the poor have bad understand of true democarcy ... Democracy is not system which is created to benefit people who have money and power but to benefit the society as general ... but for the past 20 years the democracy system have lose it original objective and it now is evolving and become a tool of the rich and the power ..

Now vote buying is rampaging the rural part of Thailand and the vote buying making developing country become more and more unstablized ... People are will to paid to join the "red- shirt" protest I did not mean all the people in the red camp but alot of people there accept money and join the "red shirt" rally ..

Here is one of the example caught on tape when the rally beginning, which you guy can watch from youtube..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU-l0Q7zP2s

Why Red shirt and Thaksin camp want want an immediate election it is because the knew they can buy the vote from the poor ... with the economy is still in uncertainty veto buying will more cheap then before and if we allow that to happen before restoring peace and law in the Thailand. I think Thailand will be on the edge of civil disorder and unlaw bandit will start causing violent in the sociaty... hope you guy and help to reduce this and pass around the message around ... The red shirt protester is not about democracy it about power, greed and manipulation

Thaksin is employ lobbist around the world to help him and red shirt camp PR in foreign media which is every dangerous... anyway we should stop legalize this lobbist company it only make problem for the poeple in general. The media only put 30% of the story.....

http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml

Here is some of the good explaination of what is happen

You can go to the link here http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/37395/put-an-end-to-this-rebellion


or read from below message:


Put an end to this rebellion

* Published: 16/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: News

I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear: It's a rebellion, so put an end to it _ with swiftness, severity and certainty.

The military coup in 2006 wrongly overthrew the then democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. That was no democracy.

The coup council handed the power back to the people in 2007. The People Power Party (PPP) won the following election. That was democracy.

The PPP was banned by the Constitution Court for electoral irregularities and the parliament _ the democratically elected representatives of Thailand _ voted the Democrats into power. That was democracy.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) argue against the Democrat-led coalition government's legitimacy and protest for the government to step down and call a general election.

That was democracy.

And the UDD had won.

The goals of the UDD from the very start: They wanted a House dissolution. They will have one in September. They wanted a general election. They will have one on Nov 14. All within seven months and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's term actually ends in January 2012, a year and a half from now.

They should be dancing in the streets, celebrating victory. Then we can all go to the voting booth in November. Peace and democracy. But no.

The truth has revealed itself. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is simply using democracy as a front in the interests of dictatorship.

Refusing the peaceful compromise, forsaking the democratic process, continuing to harm the country for the interests of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, fighting against security forces of the rightful democratic government of Thailand _ that's an uprising, it's a rebellion.

It's criminal. That is not democracy.

If you disagree with me and think the UDD is in the right, then let me simplify it: The next time you're pulled over by the law in a traffic stop, you should just burn tyres, shoot slingshots at the cop and call him a dictator.

Anyone with an arrest warrant? No need to surrender. Barricade and fortify your home, fire slingshots and fire-crackers and call the law tyrannical.

Buy a lifetime membership to the Association of Anarchists. You don't belong in a civilisation.

The UDD leaders agreed to the prime minister's terms. But instead, Thaksin Shinawatra ordered Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol to step on the brake. Because in his mind, he's screaming: ''What about me!'' ''What do I get out of this entire peace and democracy shenanigans!''

Here's Thaksin's dilemma. Peace and the democratic process don't guarantee his return to power. Someone in Montenegro is kicking and screaming on the floor: ''Me! Me! Me! What about me!''

Accepting the compromise is a loss of face and may even make PM Abhisit look good in the eyes of the people, for biting the bullet and extending his hand. Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer rely on the voting booths. He can no longer rely on the democratic process.

The UDD has used democracy as a tool _ manipulated and exploited it to return Thaksin to power. Now that they are no longer confident that the democratic process will serve their interests, the UDD has transformed itself from a democratic movement into an uprising, a rebellion, a criminal organisation.

It's worth repeating: They wanted a House dissolution. They have one in September. They wanted a general election. They have one on Nov 14. That's democracy. Instead, they flushed democracy down the toilet.

So there's no negotiation other than the complete and total capitulation by the government to the UDD's every will and every whim. It's a total victory that will embarrass the government in the eyes of the Kingdom and of the world and may possibly bury the Democrat party. That's the game.

To Thaksin and the UDD, returning Thaksin to power is worth the 50-odd lives already lost. And that figure is bound to rise. More than 1,000 have been injured and that figure will rise. The billions of baht in economic damage. And that figure will rise.

It's an uprising. It's a rebellion. It's criminal.

The UDD is screaming: ''Now! Now! Now! Prime Minister resign now!'' Thaksin Shinawatra is crying: ''Me! Me! Me! I want my power back!'' That's not democracy. That's a child that needs to be put across the lap for a good spanking.

Let me repeat it again: They wanted democracy. They had democracy. We can all go to the voting booth on Nov 14. But they flushed democracy down the toilet and chose instead, a rebellion.

And when there's a rebellion, the government must put down the rebellion. Otherwise, we have anarchy. The law must be swift, severe and certain _ any student of criminology can tell you that.

I've watched television and read newspapers all this weekend. Most so-called intellectuals, academics and media talk about reconciliation. Well, that's easy and safe _ using a thousand flowery words without saying anything worthwhile.

We reap what we sow. Again, I'm not in a popularity contest. I'm not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear _ it's a rebellion. To preserve civilisation, the government must put down the rebellion _ swift, severe and certain.

UDD members have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible. But they've died in a rebellion against the rightful, democratic government of Thailand.

The security forces that have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

Journalists and other innocent bystanders have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

It didn't have to come to this. It shouldn't have come to this. But here we are on the brink of anarchy because of the pride, greed and vengefulness of one man, and of the indecisiveness, uncertainty and lack of leadership of another.

Let me repeat: We reap what we sow. It's a rebellion. Put an end to it, swift, severe and certain. Or step down and let the rebels take over. The longer this crisis drags on, the closer we are and the deeper we will be in a state of anarchy

41 comments:

  1. I have been to Thailand a couple of times. Travelled all around the country. Very beautiful nature and nice and friendly the tai-people.
    To many times have the Ego of some "men" destroyed the peace of others. Hope peace gets restored soon and people take reason.

    Daniel

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  2. Preditor:

    I read your post with great interest. I am sure everyone here supports your desire for peace and democracy in Thailand. I will tell my friends about the true situation.

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  3. Hi Pred,

    Really sorry to hear about this situation. The country and its people are in my prayers.

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  4. hi pred
    sorry to hear this..
    hm will try today accumulate stoxx shorts again around 53 in s&p..

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  5. Are you adding more oil at these level Pred??

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  6. Hi Preditor!

    Would be nice to hear your view about this Germany-deal. What impact will this ban on naked short selling have on everything. Will it change your strategy and will your positions remain the same.

    Much appreciated,

    Daniel

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  7. I am thinking about closing my oilposition. Have you seen the VIX. People can not keep it together, they are really scared out there. The panick sell might not be very far now like you said Preditor.

    Daniel

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  8. Hi everyone,

    thank you for your comment.

    I think it is not wise to close the oil position when price is under presuure, i am not a daily trader so i am quite immune from day trade emotion , this is something i have learn in the pass few years of my trading ..

    As of speaking i have accumulate more oil position at lower position @ 68.50

    Right my average position for oil is about 70.50 dollar. i have used up 50% of my oil fund and will accmulate more if price continue to be under presurre

    As for Euro, i think the euro is finding the bottom , i have start to cover my short in Euro/dollar and going long in Euro/dollar @ about 1.21 may be the market will push further down, but eventually will find bottom . and will accumulate more long if price continue to be under pressure

    As for treasury, i also reduce my long and will look forward to close all my long in trasury and maybe shorting to place some short soon.

    Gold and silver is under pressure , it is a good idea to start looking to enter long in precious metal.

    I think the trading is begining to turn soon. i have close most of my short and start to pile long . only left some short in my S&P will look forward to cles all my short in the S&P soon.

    For the "nake short short" naked short should be label as illgal form of trading...


    How can any 1 short sale something they don;t have or no obligation.. band of short selling is good for the market.

    Well i think the market will try to inflict more bad news for the euro and the"ban of nake short will be one of their tool. So i think you guy beter start to pull bearish flag out of euro and start going long in euro.

    Please bear in mind, the QE, hae have being revive by EU with backing from US..

    So Easy money will rampage the market, soi think the inflation will start to crawl back to the economy

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  9. Pred, could one go long the euro with a bull call spread? target something like what?

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  10. hi pred..
    think they can scare the hell out of market in s&p if they manage to break sma200 at 1100 thats something to watch, if that happens there could be very cheap prices,yesterday it bounced from that level..still playing market just from short side looking for daily high,but my pos are just daytrades, currency crossing dollar yen looking dangerous to me..but i dont fight with preditor he somehow always gets it right in long run hehe

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  11. Hi everyone,
    I was just thinking myself of going long on oil. I will look at taking a position.
    As far as gold, isn't the summer months usually slow for gold? I think there will be a big move up next week in ENTI.
    Continue to pray for Thailand.
    Best wishes to all.

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  12. I don't play spread, i usually take one side of the trade ...

    My target for EUR dollar long at about 1.18 - 1.22 range and cross finger and wait..

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  13. Hi shirley,

    I think the gold will undergo so correction from here, whichi think my tartget for gold is about US$1100 -1110 range .. Cross finger and wait.

    Holding on tight to oil... the oil is abit fishy here... i will brave my gust to add more when price pressure... this is call trading emotion test...

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  14. crazy roller coaster ride for oil today. I wonder how long this sell off can continue. Looks kind of hopeless. I never thought we would come this far down. But again Preditor you nailed it:) Tomorrow OPEX. we might get sea sick again. good luck everyone

    Daniel

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  15. Hi Devery 1,

    Yeah, what a day..

    But overall , i am happy with my position :)

    I will look forward to close my short in S&P today trading (Friday).. althought i think we might go lower, but with huge profit at hand it is wise to take profit first and ask later.

    For the treasury, i have unwind some of my long and will look forward to to unwind all the treasury in the next few trading season ..

    For oil, i have start to take some notice for the pass few trade, no matter how low the market go it wil rebound back nicelyl.. so i betting the oil will not go lower then 66... anyway if oil go lower then 67.5, it a must to accumulate.. I might not get the lowest price... but i am buying on the dip with both hand , this is something which i have learn and i never disapointed from my trade for the past few years..

    yestersday approve another opportunity to buy on the dip which bring down my average to 69.2 for oil and i have exhaust 75% of my oil fund ... which i will add more if the price go below 67.5

    For Gold and silver is going down hard, but i don't have doubt that the price willrebound nicely soon ..,,

    I will start accumulate in the next few trading.

    Please take some note in here:

    Oil have make the first move in correction so i think the oil is near bottom.

    For the euro, if i am not wrong, the euro might have found it bottom and we are in building resistance area which i think we will in a tight range trading for the next few trading season for euro.

    I have used up my forex fund 50% , i will look forward to add on the dip, pateni will win,

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  16. Hi every 1 ,

    I would like every here to pass around this link and every 1 out of thailand to understand more on Thailand crisis.

    The big media only show the army crack down, but did not expain what happen before... the government have try numerous exempt to talk to the protester leader to move out of the heart of city but the proest leader just keeping add more term to the negotiate list ...

    Please remeber that Thaksin have employ good intternational lobbyist which have good connection with big international media,cnn bcc, AP,especial aljeezera which only show one side of the story....

    I hope you can do mea favour, please forward this link around
    http://www.facebook.com/MichaelYonFanPage#!/topic.php?uid=207730000664&topic=16049

    and to make every 1 in international community to have clear understanding of what is happening. Money can buy anything and money is not a problem for Thaksin.

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  17. Hello everyone,

    I also agree that we have found a bottom here. I look at the copper price a lot and it seems like somebody find copper very cheap at these levels and price just do not go down anymore. I hope I do not Jinx this now by telling this:) Oil looks kind of robust here to me aswell but the turns make me sea- sick and make me fell very uneased. I will send this link around in facebook Preditor. I am in an international school so many people can reach the message I hope.

    Good Luck everyone

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  18. Daniel by the way

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  19. Hi Daniel,

    I think it is better to accumulate soft commodities for long term play, hog have very good prospective..

    I think thw world will have alot of food production problem, the iceland volcano ash, the BP oil spill in gulf of mexico, this will sure have effect on the weather and food chain in nature eco system.


    I have now doing some research on the effect of oil spill in gulf, will this have impact on the water temperature which will in the end have effect on the climate for time to come ...

    I do the research and update in my next update in my blog

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  20. Hi again,

    I read an article about hog. Demand has risen a lot lately and apperantely that is a good indicator that we are pulling out of the recession.

    very possible that there will be some problems with food production in the future. With this big population in the world and the population growth, disturbances in the system can cause a lot of trouble. I watched a documentary movie "collapse" which I found very interesting. A bit extreme but I think that the guy that was being interviewed made some good points about what problems we can have when oil finishes.

    About copper, price will remain high for a long while I speculate. China really likes copper and they have big plans for the future. Once I read that they want to connect Beijing- London with rail road. Much is already there but this tells just how much they want to accomplish and they need a lot of copper to do that.

    Good Luck everyone

    Daniel

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  21. hi pred..
    will pass ur link..
    hm to market i would be a happy dip buyer if i see some buying of hedgefunds, but the still are over all neutral in market..small traders increased their long pos in minis..

    http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php

    in feb when we hit 1060 hedgefunds where the fist ones to buy big time this time its not the case..

    my plan for next week is carefully playing retracement of downmove in dax to 5869-5911..

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  22. Preditor:

    Some people are postulating a bear market sell off with a near term intermediate bottom of SPX 900 to 950.

    Do you have any thoughts on this? Thanks.

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  23. Hi bob g ,

    there is great possibitites but it will not be a one way street. The eu have just open another chapter of easy money to the market with fed suppport. So I will. Be cautous to go short in s&p from here on.

    If you would like to the short, try to hold the short for shorter term cover short with every 1.5 % again.. I believe we will see some kind of short squeeze . If there is short squeeze. I will re take the short position from the top. Let see how the market play out .

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  24. Does anyone know the treasury auction schedule? I am thinking about shorting treasury this week for short term trade. Any feedback? I was reading that the move in treasuries was increased because the hedge funds had to cover their shorts. I think yields could move back up if there is less fear this week. Plus us has to make auction and encourage investors with better yields.

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  25. Pred .. sorry, I´m trying to understand your timings, wich would be the top for you to start shorting ? do you think we will reach april levels again, may be 1250 . 1300 for the s&p and then roll back again, or your have a shorter term view for the short squeeze that you are seeing. Are you long from here on ?? Thank you very much

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  26. Hi dubrunn

    here is the link
    http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf

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  27. Hi andrea,

    I thinka good spot to short S&P from here should be about 1110 - 1120 ... however, thing is getting unpredictable so the signal can change fast ... like i have wrote, the EU have open a new chapter for Easy and cheap money, so we have cheap euro and US dollar and Yen ... the end result of this is only inflation

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  28. Hello Preditor,

    How often does a market just fall from the cliff. I do not think it happens so often. my observations says that it should atleast test the top again before it resumes the fall. Am I wrong? How big do you think the chance is that we continue down from here unless the news do not turn worse then they are now. I heard that China would let the Yuan appreciate but not because the "West" pressures them to do that, however they will just do it gradually, and if the "west" ask them to do it, it may take longer time. American diplomats have to chill for a bit a guess so they do not provoke them. Korea situation does not bode well. Who knows what desperate people can do? North Korean is for sure a big threat. They must hate the prosperities of their neighbour when they suffer so bad from Poverty. Sanctions will not help just make it worse and force them to attack. But again Suth Korea need to make act because of what happened. A very bad situation indeed. Americans say they back South Korea. Ugly ugly. Wonder who China backs?? S & P 500 would go to zero that is for sure and money would be worthless. Haha. I just got crazy I think.

    Good Luck with your trading everybody

    Daniel



    Daniel

    Daniel

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  29. hi
    hm dax not managed to hit my retrace levls insteat sold off hehe..thats not that big prob have stoxx shorts but have a dividend game running on oil stock omv seems will be one of the most expensive dividens i every collected hehe..looking today for 5700 in dax there could be good place to short again..

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  30. I don't think china will allow any war oocur in strait of Korea, although north is consider and unstable country.

    Anyway , I have use remain of my oil fund and complete purchase @ avergae

    68.00. And o have add hog @ 81.8. It is time to play soft commodities . Closing out some of long for the treasury @ 102.4



    buy some s&p @ 1050 for short term play.

    It seem like the fund is secretly shifting to gd and silver. So I have add some silver and gold to my proflio too seem like I am in shopping mood today. Silver @ 17.55 and some gold @ 1190. Using 25 percent of my gold will start buy into dip if the gold continue to be under presuurw

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  31. hi pred
    tricky had to take small loss on shorts was to hot for me such strong us market yesterday..started also buying silver miners ecu and orko they are about 20% cheaper than a weak ago..
    at moment dax looks incredibel strong again back on retracement trade..but in this fast market we could trade around 5500 this week or almost touching 6000 just following buy signals of yen crossings and they pointing for upmove at moment..

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  32. Hi everyone
    What a day!! This is like a roller coaster, we go up and down...
    Pred, what`s your price target for oil? are you still holding your s&p?
    Thanks
    Andrès

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  33. Wow, my bet on oil paid. I agree, Andres, what is a good target? Couldn't do the short again tho. Don't know why.
    Been very busy but hope all is well for everyone.:)

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  34. hi everyone
    grats to preditor all he touches turns into gold hehe
    also grats shirley to oil bet, my oil dividend game also start to look good with omv ..
    question is will the big guys hammer this move down again, are we in a sideways range..we could come cloase to preditor short levls around 1110-1120 in s&p..i try to watch yen crossings like always for some signs but still has some room to move up until hitting stronger resistance..

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  35. Hi Pred
    Today we reached 1,102.59 in the s&p at the opening and then we went down. We almost reached your short levels, is it time to start shorting??
    Watching the vix index it fluctuated between the range of 30 and 33, it didn`t shoot up as the previous days, with credit rating cut of Spain.

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  36. Hi Allen,
    Thanks. The markets are wild. I took profits and will relax this weekend. Monday is Memorial Day so markets are closed.
    Have a great weekend to all.

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  37. Hi everyone,

    Pred we`re missing your comments...please come back!!
    Your shorting levels for the s&p worked fine.
    What does this bad job reports means for the markets and commodities?

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  38. Hi Preditor and everyone,

    How is things going? I start to feel really hopeless about the stockmarket and about to pull the plug and sit-out for a while. This is usually when it turns cause I represent the dumb-money. But who knows. This time I might be wright and to get out might be sane.

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  39. I´m at the same position than you Daniel.

    It would be very useful to have Pred coments, in this tough times.

    It would be also nice to share Shirley and of course Allen´s opinion as well.

    ReplyDelete
  40. hi
    also hope pred finds some time..
    cot still shows no buying from big guys, commercials covert some shorts,hedgefonds switched from small long pos to small short pos..looks like we are still in some sort of sideways tradingrange,but like always with cot u are a little behind curve..

    dax like expectet is very strong just 5% down from highs, while eurostoxx is down 20%..i stick to my plan trying to short rallys in stoxx and ibex, and if we go down alot playing retracement in dax..when u avoid shorting lows or buying high prices, it should be a great tradingtime with this volatility..but easy said and extremly difficould to get right timing

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