Hi everyone,
this week I am in writing mood and have a few interesting thought and would like to share with you guy..
The economy as we go from here will choppy down trend .
The Mexico gulf oil spill is the biggest blow to obama simulates planned and thing will get worsae from here after a honey mood rebound in the world market ..
I do understand the economy data from here will be still look ok but I anticipate that thing will start to change from next month onward.
Let jump into my thought on the economy as a big picture.
Why do I start to become bearish from here.
1) The inventories re-stock phrase coming to end.
now the re-stock inventoies is due to previous government sitmulas package on car "cash for Clunk" the housing credit and another sitmulas which result in short term consumption as the result the inventory is quickly depleted. All this program including QE is coming to end or have end, so all the rosy picture is coming home to roast and economy should be back where it right belong which is fixing the problem with a correction.
2)the obama house credit and benefit and job benefit is getting exhuast and coming to end too.. I beleive some of this will become foreclose problem... so the picture in the housing is not looking good.
3) the censure temperoary employment is coming to end too ... this is a short boost to the job market and will have great effect when thisis coming to end ...
4) The whole world is start to rolled back the sitmulas measure to stream down inflation. Europe start, the korea and everyone is starting to rise interest or control groeth... only USA did not have that planned in the mind yet.
5) Mexico oil spill, will be a major and contributor to pr-long trade deficit anf jobless for time to come and I think it will be more serious then everyone anticipated. althought the clean up job also result in some employment but it will not be a quality pay...What I worry is the chain reaction from this event..
6) Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac, this is two insitute is gewtting out of hand with bad debt and will going to cost more problem in the housing market rather then fixed the real problem.now this mortage gaint . I have found this interesting article the link is here http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/business/20foreclose.html?pagewanted=2&src=busln
of all the employment I think both Fannie and Feddie is also another government puppet to create job in maintaining the foreclosure house .. The End result will more tax prayer money and loses. Which no wonder both need a fast injection from the government, cash is running fast ...
============
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
Hello everyone,
ReplyDeleteinteresting update.
How is everyone positioning now in Short Term for the China News. It feels like they are just throwing some breadcrumbs before the G20-meeting. Preditor, are you keeping your shorts on the stock market? With what you just described I understand you are still very bearish but I just wonder if you think we could get very high short term with these news?
Thanks again,
Daniel
USA wants to implement protective legislation unless China gets more specific about the flexibility they want for Yuan.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20442.html
That would not be very good I guess.
Daniel
Hi Daniel,
ReplyDeleteIn my view, there will not be any much change. China is worried but there is huge political pressure from the whole world which result in china move.
And I don't think this will chnage anything much. I think it will be quite messy. Alot of country start to roll back stimulus and the liquidity is starting to dry up. So many bond sale , so many fault need to cover and so many promised need to filled.
Yes I am bearish and thing will start to deteriorate from here. Anyway I have not my this update news letter. I will try to complete later today
I believe there will a short boost in the stock but will not last long, I am still on the short side of the trade ...
ReplyDeleteI will complete the update before the market open tomorrow
I am short side of the trade,
ReplyDeleteUS Stock , treasury and dollar
hi pred..
ReplyDeletehm u basically expecting something like japan in the last 20 jears, everytime when stimulus run out stocks went down..
hedgefonds took profit last week, the are again with a small short pos..will start buying some eurostoxx shorts this week no big risk just etf..
in the bigger picture i think we are going cloaser to that stagflation scenario,slow or no growth and in the same time inflation picking up,so i still have only food, energy and miners on watchlist every bigger pullback there i will use to buy..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteIF the US Government did not change their policy, i believe is will like Japanese style but much more larger scale...
And the revised in china currency, USA better prepare for what they wish for ...
The inflation in US economy will edge, the treasury yield will increase and the future debt refincncaing will becom more costly then present time... this is something everyone need to put a note and memory .
Hi every 1,
ReplyDeleteI am cashing out my oil position. Today I feel abit like too much China good news.
Good luck eveyone
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeletePlaying the commodities it self will be a safe play althought sometime the reward is a bit less the stock daily movement.
Something can happen to stock but not commoidties, BP is a good example.
Unexpected problem could arise to the company but the price of the commoditites still good
hi pred
ReplyDeletehm yes u can make lot of good points for both ways playing it..
bp for someone who is following the market,should have had enough time to get out, it didnt crash on one day..also u could make that case on miners and the tax in australia
playing commos with etf i dont like u lose with rolling..
futures are perfect if u know enough understand rolling, understand that u basically playing a game against time, u pay for storage of that good and cannot roll over for ever..
and there are some big players with big advantage in market, they can basically make out of every situation a profit , if they dont want to roll they fill a tanker and wait for their price..
brings us back what to do to get profit, i think in a system with still so much levrege and at the same time so much bad depht their can the volatility only be high, and we should at least get one or two chances every year where prices get very cheap..having some physical gold as insurance and always cash to profit from such chances think u only can make money, against the majority that will always lose money in stocks..
hehe trading can be so easy following preditors advise and paying some attention to cot eurostoxx down 2,5% i love it hehe
ReplyDeleteYes, thanks Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYour blog is worth alot. I think I understand a lot more about trading now but I still have a lot to learn. The latest things you shared kept me from taking a very bad decision.
Cheers
Daniel
Hi eveyone,
ReplyDeletethe market is moving like a drunk and sea sick patient, so it movment has no direction and will eventually fell this time.
Thank you for every compliment, and hope everyone become more careful in trading . There will time to be a bull and there is time to be a bear.
Goodluck every one. And don't forget to take profit from time to time . There will not be a one shot trade.
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your posts and insights.
Touch wood, I am 75% short spx at 1106.85.
Hi Bob,
ReplyDeleteMy short positioning S&P as quite huge.. so I think the best way to deal with pressure and uncertaintly is better to relax, don't get too emotion while trade..
Trading Tip: Try not to look at your trading screening all the time, it will create an emotional while trading which it is very dangerous ..
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThanks!! Very true!!
Step right up and place your bets! Im puttin some in the miners.
ReplyDeleteHolding tight to the short ,
ReplyDeleteI think the market is a bout to fall hard,
This number is very bad so brace for a nice dip but the market will try to confuse the trrend, the sell off should start when there is some good new to support the market
how is everyone doing today ...
ReplyDeleteCheer
hi pred
ReplyDeleteso far all working perfekt eurostoxx down 100 points this week *G*
greek cds are up 20% today
http://www.cmavision.com/market-data
iam taking some profit to cool down ,and keep some for friday,start thinking from where to play retracement trade in dax, maybe tomorrow if prices get very cheap..
Hello,
ReplyDeleteI have no position at the moment but very happy I closed my long position in a miner last week. I am waiting a bit to enter a short but may have waited to long:( but still happy that I do not have a long position. I do not want to keep any short positions over the weekend because you never know what will pop out from some politians mouthes during the G20-meeting and how markets reacts to it, but if it is some good news I will definetely enter some shorts if the market retrace a bit, if it isn't anything trend changing off course.
Daniel
Hi, Pred, did you cover the shorts end of day today? wonder if there is going to be a bounce coming soon..thanks for sharing
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteStill holding my short spx position, now at 100%. Today's spx close gives me some breathing room. Hope spx cannot bounce higher than 1105.
Hi every one,
ReplyDeleteI glad you guy have take some profit off the table, it is always wise to take profit after a good run.
I am with Bob this time, still holding to all my short :)
For me, I am a agredy man this time, the S&P did not hit my target, and I set my target quite deep this time... my first target 1010, secondary target 900 - 950 and final touch down will be 800 - 850 ... this my out look for S&P for the next two quarter
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI think would like everyone here to excahnage food for thought or news link in my blog..
Any news which you think will have effect on the market or for time to come, so we can all learn together in drawing the trend of what may become and invest wisely ...
which i would like to refine my skill in this area...
I think if everyone(news reader or any1 which have not post in my blog before but visit this regularily) who come to this blog and participate , we can learn a great deal on this ..
Just like me know what you guy think
thank and cheer
Well I sound like a broken record about China, but here is an article and video.
ReplyDeleteThe video is interesting because some quite smart people have such diffrent opinions: chanos, roach, mobius, and faber. To me it is relevant simply because, if china does ok then the USA and Europe will suffer what is already comming based on their economies, but if china collapses then the entire world will feel it.
As an aside, I think it is funny that some of the video people say there is no bubble in the 2nd and 3rd tier areas, but the news article, chanos, and hugh hendry say different.
I am still looking for a jim rogers rebuttal to this information. Last I saw, jim rogers said he was shorting asia/china also, mostly because of the slow down in the USA and Europe.
Lastly, my friend that does buisness in china says that in a single apartment there can be 3 or 4 familes living that want to buy their own apartment. So there is pent-up demand.
There is a lot of money to be made in Asia, but getting the position and timing right is of course everything.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alsbs6CHw0_U
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vlObkwSge2kc.asf&N=video&T=Chanos%2C+Roach%2C+Faber%2C+Mowat+Own+Words+on+China+%60Bubble%26%2339%3B+
sorry for the long post, cheers
Hi Daniel,
ReplyDeleteGood post...
This news is trend setting ..
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65N6EV20100625,
This news is spooking
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIVMGuz3XH1k
This new is hidden bomb
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-06/25/content_10018751.htm
Cheer everyone
Good post bob, sorry i mistaken
ReplyDeleteHello,
ReplyDeletesounds like a very good idea, Preditor.
If I come across some juicy stuff, I definetely post it.
It was interesting articles you guys posted. Got a very good perspective about current business environment. China has a great advantage against the west it seems like.
Lets see what happens in the G20-meeting next.
Daniel
USA in a nut shell:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=atxrhPqbty_4&pos=10
this is an very good Marc faber sharing his thought ..
ReplyDeleteit is about 1 hour but it really worth your time ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0sS6a9RW2E
hope you guy enjoy