US recovering with oil spill ? huh? eh? Not so fast ...

Hi eveyone one,

I have being travelling and try to take some to update this which I think it is important for everyone to take note of

Bp oil spill is world disaster . It will impact alot of thing job, food and energy.

Obama have freeze all of short drilling. ( This part is already 3 week late but i will put this view for future flash back.)

For job part:
there will alot of people out of job for quite sometime and should not bold well for the job figure in US the next few quater.
(Like the media have reported, business in beach, resturant, hotel and alot of service and oil fishery industry around gulf of mexico will be greatly effect. I think you can name it all there) There will be hang over effect in the economy

For food and fishery
Food chain will be effected and I thik this will also effect the world climate which i think we will extreme weather throught USA or North america in the next few quarter, we will have food supply problem.

And there is Hoof-and-mouth disease out break in Japan...http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/06/10/Hoof-and-mouth-disease-spreads-in-Japan/UPI-15781276222027/

The hog is already in tight supply and I think we should brace for a nice run soon.


About USA recovery, eh?
There is a;ot of noise that the economy is recovering, so it is real? Well i betting the best run US stock market have already done for now , so I will on the short side of the market... Allen but not for Dax, recall the past news letter, which i wrotethat i am very bullish in euro exporting economy like Dax, due to the weakeness in Euro, the weakness in Euro come in a great timing for Europe while the world economy is re-stocking inventories and expanding infastructure . so the dax should be doing good for a while longerbut not for debt ridden economy like PIIGS ... now the Ireland is doing so I think the recovery in ireland will good and sustainable one, everyone should look to invest in this economy for long term play.

But not for USA, what i see the situation getting worse, the economy will immediately collasp without the government life line, and what is making me pessimistic is US consumer having credit expanding, instead of contracting...

So we now have consumer resume consuming credit and the government extending borrowing well.... this is very very bad. and if the corporate bond market revive, I am brace for the Armageddon scenario in US economy in the next 2-4 year from now

In Japan, there is high saving in consumer and japan is still having surplus, while the government borrow heavily from the world so I think overall the economy is still manageable but i did not mean it is good for Japan, I think Japan will soon face greece like crisis but right now the so the debt problem in japan is still manageable.

The us economy is 70% service industries, which mean is realable heavily on consumer service consumption which I see this is evaporating fast which we seeing why the jobless claim is still at this high 450,000 per week .... I don't think i see a recovery here.

Corporation continue to shedded of job while avaibale position is scare. and I don';t think the real umemployment in US is only 9.6% , I have being doing the math, the number don't fit. I think the unemployment should be about 15-20% but anyway, we will use the "official" so the market will " feel good ."

Since 70% of US economy is about service, so i think we will before the sefvice revive, we will need to see, the jobless claim turn negative with continue decline in number and new job added to the economy which i think we will still quite far from that situation. Where we are heading now is quite dangerous ... so I am bracing for a new crisis which should occure in the next 3 quarter from now ....


So how do i planning to manage my port folio.

For Gold, I will be dip buyer, my accumulate target is US$1190 - US$1210, I love all the short seller, they just give me opportunity to buy the gold at cheaper level, which i believe it is cheap when compare the gold price which should at higher level in the time to come, I will take the deliver of the contract I am buying now... paper gold is just fiat currency .

For oil, the price at this level is of courese reason and I think US$70.00 should be a good entry point and 75 - 78 should be a good target for selling short term play.

for longer term play, I think US$68 - 80 should be a good range for 2-3 month holding


For S&P
I think my target of enter short US$1090 - US$1100,

short term play in S&P
Enter short at 1090 - 1100 range (or maybe 1086 if you don't a few point lose) and take profit about 1050 - 1060

for longer target well i think 800 point should be target, souind like impossible but I think this is a conservation target i have in mind.

Soft commoditites.
With so many uncertainty in the environment and climate, and the supply is at a tight range, so I think this a be a dip buy... I am now paying attention to hog,

I am buying into the dip.

That should cover for now.

Have a good trade and good luck everyone




I will be back for more....