Hi Everyone,
It is important everyone that there is tendency that the dollar will destablizing soon and alot of currency will be shock from this effect ...
This deficit manged economy is not sustainable and we are getting more and more risk with our way of life with this manipulation..
Derivative like warren buffet said is a weapon of mass destruction and indeed this weapon is getting more destructive then ever . Come to think about it people can buy and sell endless even if there is no physical item left . it is not making any sense .. now the Derivative is the most speculate market .
More and more big institutes expand Derivative trading system, the more people trade via Derivative trading system the more we fall into investment trap without even know the truth fundamental and are at risk making lose in this investment vehicle ...
Althought I like trading Derivative but i am stopping trading Derivative in Preious metal. It getting dangerous and will not get maximize the gain as I would like to and at the same is at risk in making lost. I have start buy silver and gold trust with real physic gold and silver holding which you can redeem .. I think this type of investment vehicle will maximize my saving and profit in long run.
Example Sprott Physical Silver Trust come at a good time when the silver price is under heavy depress or you can buy Everbank gold CD, agorafinanical or invest with Jame turk or caseyresearch ... so I think it one of a vechicle to invest for long term holding, what is best there is on expired like Derivative which the big institue can squeeze in either way. Or best buy physical gold ..
I did not get any advertisment from Sprott and i am not related to Sprott in anyway..
I believe that one day, the gold will shot up in price like no tomorrow once the Derivative collasp ...as there is less gold to delvered .. And when that time come, you will be happy that you did not own your paper gold cause it will default as there is nothing backing it, paper gold is just like IOU gold. Just like dollar where the Fed can print unlimited .
There is a reason which gold survive for the past 5000 years while flat currency will collasp from time to time .every 50 - 100 hundred years
Please pass this link around and protect retail investor from this weapon of destruction. Without prey, the big institues will die so don't let them prey on us.
An elephant can kill an ant but elephant can't kill million ant as long as we know how to defeat the elephant and protect ourself.
Cheer everyone
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Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI thought everyone already knew this, but I will pass the link to whoever might not know yet. I'm pretty CONfident in being short right here. Thanks
I'm short oil..is anyone else? What are your near term oil targets? I'd like to see it trade below 74...
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteHere is a good one,
July 19th, 2010 by max keiser (maxkeiser.com):
Soon enough, a G20 nation will announce a full or partial gold backed currency forcing every other country to either reply with their own gold backed currency – or equivalence – or risk 100% capital flight
With this link:
http://www.businessinsider.com/top-chinese-economist-calls-for-government-to-ditch-us-treasuries-and-buy-gold-2010-7#ixzz0u95KdFW8
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteHere is some news about China's engery consumption:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVuSRbX5SRtI&pos=2
hi every 1 here is the link food for thought
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-07/14/content_10103959.htm
hi
ReplyDeleteafter surviving that little bullish monday our shorttrain starts to move faster and faster hehe
@preditor
ReplyDeleteyes this derivates stuff is the same as smoking u know for sure at some point it will kill u but very difficould to stop *G*
but i dont want to miss some leverege on gold or silver, for someone who is not following the markets very cloasly a mining etf could also be a good way to play it,there are rumors around that goldman wants to bring smaller miners in trouble and than picking up their shares for a bargain..i hope i will still have something to invest if this plays out..have bought some of orko silver and iam down somewhat and a small pos of goldbugs etf..
on list to buy novagold(faber is there on board of directors now)
scorpio mining,ecu silver,iamgold..
against investing in miners could u argue possibel heavy taxes and somethimes some miners go broke..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteWe are living in a very hostile investment environment.
Sometime, somthing have to change ....and I have a feeling the change have start to have effect now ...
derivates does not making any when you have big institue with big gun try to manipulate, the end result the small retail investor will lose out ..
Protect your value invest with some with real stuff like Gold.
A storevalue should be somethingnot highly used in industry (oil is a temperorary store value but not for long term as it will eventually used up) or easy to destroy cause the function of store value is used to store your wealth...( it is like safe when you can only used to store your wealth :) Papaer is bad why to store value, i used to play monply with my children and i accident drop a 5 dollar note beside the monoploy money... my children ask me interest question what is the different between the 5 dollar note and the monoploy note.... I told my children that is have value because the government say it has value and they used better quality paper... but one day the government go banfrupt so the same 5 dollar will lose it value..
this monopoly thing i like hehe
ReplyDeleteiam with u it looks like central banks continue to follow einsteins definition of stupidity:
Is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein
there will be devaluation of paper money, but for me when i compare empires, the us has still lot of options ,other defeated empires like germans after ww1 had no choice than default on hyperinflation, us has the strongest army in the world, and in lot of possible endgames they will use it to their advantage..
Who will refuse to accept a dollar if a gun pointing on his head *G*
so at some point in future when every keynes approach will fail the will go to the chinese and tell them 10cents on dollar take it or u get nothing....so u could be a little better off with dollar on long run than iam with euros,we dont have that options..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThe weaken in US will from inside out unlike Germany which strong within but lost due to overconfident in ww2..
Hilter worst decision is to delcare war on USSR which result in great losses in military force beyond repair.
Anyway, no matter how great you are and how much strength you have in force, but bad decision will lead to down fall... One example of the bad decision which A great company will fail will Goldman Sach ... They profit from while their client is facing huge lose, they will lose alot of trust from alot of big customer and those profit from other people lose will come home to roast some day.
JP Morgan and alot of this big bank is on the list but for the crook in Goldman will pay their price from now until the change their way of doing business. They need to break their business if not there will always a conflict of interest in investment ..
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteWhen I invest in gold or silver I do it by etf´s (like GLD or SLV), it´s not easy here in my country to invest directly specially in physicall gold. Are you seeing risks in that tipe of instruments??
Thank you
By the way what are your gold and silver short term view? are you still bullish??
hi pred
ReplyDeletebumpy ride on shorts i will stick with rest till friday..wasnt abel to cloase all yesterday..
here is a recent interview with sprott
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/7/20_Eric_Sprott.html
click bottom left
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI think the market will be side way for this week and will crash within two .. so i guess just have to wait longer then anticipated.. short in S&P intact.
For the Oil should be on the way down .. so .. let see how it form from here, but long term is up.. so this will oil correction period ..
For Gold and silver short term look bearish but it is always wise to buy on dip and wait for the next long term .
Anything can happen fast you never know ..
Cheer Every one
hi pred
ReplyDeletehm maybe we know now why hedgefonds took a bigger shortpos during last week, after listening to bernanke..
the talk is hawkish at moment, but he hasnt ruled out another qe, if things go wrong, sprott talking in his radio interview, i have posted, that they maybe dont anounce the 2nd qe
because they fear the bond marked..
Hello
ReplyDeletestill sitting on my shorts. Many bears seem to given up the hope about a drop soon. That is usually when something happens but you never now. I just wonder if the trade has turned around again. Bad news and market go up because they are waiting for the QE and more fiscal stimilus. Is that possible? All the big traders are licking their mouth and waiting on the feast?
I mean the jobless claims were pretty high today.
Daniel
Hi pred,
ReplyDeleteHave you covered all shorts?
I am still sittin on some of mine.
Patience always wins?
Hello,
ReplyDeletePreditor posted updates. They are in the other post. Probably some technical error. I copy paste them to here in case someone missed them.
Thanks
Daniel
Preditor1976 said...
Hi Andrea,
This lady write a ggod view regarding EFT or other gold investment vechicle ..
Have a nice reading
http://dailyreckoning.com/golden-shell-games/.
I am very confident in my long term veiw for gold, I have been acummulating physical gold and silver and about 35% of my net is in this phyiscal holding
Hi Daniel,
The liquidity is the market is drying up, the equity have upside limited, i still have my rescues fund and i will used it to short the matket if they go higher from this point..
OG have post an interesting past few days.
Here is the detail.
og said...
Hey Allen, to clarify, here is the article:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/could-the-dow-fall-to-1000.aspx
Nenner has had a very good track record using a unique cycle analysis. A lot of the hedge funds follow his work, he was the top GIS at Goldman some years ago too...he says we go up into end of July, slide during august to the recent 1000+ lows, then up again into September. After that, way down. I see this being a probable scenario. One more short squeeze due to good corp. earnings could be in the cards, taking the market over 1100. I covered my shorts and flipped to long S and P. Still long silver (as a hedge, but smaller position - took some loss). Lets see what happens
July 15, 2010 9:04 AM
July 22, 2010 7:43 PM
Preditor1976 said...
here is another interesting new http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7905649/Britain-no-longer-has-the-cash-to-defend-itself-from-every-threat-says-Liam-Fox.html
July 22, 2010 8:16 PM
Preditor1976 said...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/7905373/Speed-cameras-fall-victim-to-spending-cuts.html.
I think the britain is feeling the heat of over spending and the pound and what they call deficit don't matter .
The North sea oil is depleting and the UK revenues as finanincal is reducing .. and BP oil spill come in a bad time ... it seem like a very bad time ahead of Britain, I think the pound is make a pares value to dollar soon ..
July 22, 2010 8:28 PM
Preditor1976 said...
this is interesting about forgold and silver ...
http://www.fmxconnect.com/fmxmetalsconnect/post/2010/07/19/Guardian-Can-Malaysias-Islamic-gold-dinar-thwart-capitalism.aspx
This is what US should be fear about...
if this legal tender with Gold and silver circulate in the real economy, I bet.
I will prefer to have my dollar change to a gold back tender and acumulate gold dinar and silver dirham... the currency itself have value don't need to mention when compare with Fiat currency.
July 22, 2010 9:36 PM
Preditor1976 said...
interesting view
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJpn8lfS1e34&pos=5
July 22, 2010 11:51 PM
Preditor1976 said...
Hi everyone,
This look serious ..
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,706321,00.html
July 23, 2010 12:06 AM
hi
ReplyDeletehedgefonds cloased their shorts, they have over all neutral position now, i try to get rid of some more dangerous shorts and keeping just etf this week..
its to difficould for me now, normaly u always have a bigger short or long position of hedgefonds in market for a longer timeperiod, which u can use to get a hint of marketdirection but now they switch almost every week..
pred what are u doing keeping shorts ore reducing some risk..
here a link to a great weekly financial radioshow
ReplyDeletehttp://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/
Deflation in real currency terms a must hear
Hi, Pred, are you still keeping your short? It looks like the market is drifting upwards towards 1130...I am short at around 1190 level, wonder if I should keep the shorts..
ReplyDeleteHi preditor and everyone:
ReplyDeleteWell closed my silver position for scratch. Gold and Silver both look good to me but I would prefer to be positioned to short spx. The elliott wave folks are looking at spx 1157 in August while another person is seeing oex 525 after a multi month rally. Geee wizz. Personally I think the only thing holding the market up is hot air, and it should have collapsed at spx 1060. Still three months to the USA election so I have no idea what is going to happen.
Cheers :)
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteI think the timing of my short is a bit fast this time... but i have full confident that the trend of the index going crash soon, still there ..
I think keep my short as i am not sure when the market will head down ..
Please use your own jugdement to do the trade cause ...
hi pred,
ReplyDeleteiam still in gold accumulation mode, today options expire, best for commercials would be a price lower than 1160 i try to use it..
200ema at 1140 is some support, but the cheaper it gets the better..also great now to trade some euros for physical gold stronger euro weak gold price..my plan is at end of summer 50% into gold some physical,miners..
to shorts,to hot for me at moment, i hope cot gives me a hint again when its save to enter, just a etf pos on esx still running down 2%..
Well, you have to wonder what is really going on in china.
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7xDy2D6pReo
Again, widely diffrent views on china. Albeit, the main protagonist being Chanos.
ReplyDeleteBut given it is a CNBC article it is suspect anyways :)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38476770
@bob
ReplyDeletefaber was always very good on china, hm shirley still on holidays she has his letter
to gold iam 1/3 of planed in now bought at 1180 and 1158..
ReplyDeletein cot short pos of commercials getting cloased very very fast from peak 290k down last friday to 215k at moment could be under 200k..
at dip in feb(1050) 213k, when gold was around 900 150-180k
seasonal charts showing still maybe 2 or 3 weaks should gold be bearish, i try to first buy physical and miners at last moment..target for bottom between 200ema and 65weeklymva 1080-1140..at moment looks like a bearflag..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteIt seem like the gold went your way (congrat Allen ), I think the golds will head for a short nice rebound .. maybe, i will close some of my long in the gold future and reposition @ lower ground next two week ...with some loses .. I believe the next two week will be short squeeze rally .. I look forward to make huge long position in Gold when the time come by.
I think gold should regain faster then anticipated... wholes world problem have not yet fixed and a lot of currency is have debt problem.
I think 1140 for Gold should be bearish enough.. anything can happen ... but i set my mark here.
I have being using my trading profit to acumuulate gold since 2009 and now 35% of my net wealth is in physical metal silver and gold
will close some of my gold future at 1195 range to reposition my long in November - December contract
Seem like my euro is gain lot of sail in rally which i hope to close my long at 1.40 .. i make a huge bet in Euro/dollar hopefully to close out soon.
For S&P,I think i am abit too confident last two week which cause me to short the market faster then it should (quite a bad timing.. anyway the S&P will start to head down and i think next weeek will a blood shed ... let see how the market
play out. I am in heavy short in the S&P ..
Good luck everyone
hi pred
ReplyDeletethx, i remember to good feb when i was looking for the perfekt point to buy gold and others bought 10 dollars earlier and i ended up chasing..this time iam in for longer not taking any profit..
1,40 a big target, maybe it goes a little slower from here on most shorts are cloased 113k at peak now to 24k..
sprotts approach somehow remembers me on the old storys of hunt brothers in 70s with silver, think thats why he has so much problems with sec, taking the metal out of market was hunt brothers approach when silver was at 1 dollar until the squeezed everyone of this paperholders to dead and ended at 50 dollars when goverment steped in and destroyed them..buts a must read that story
Hi Preditor, allen, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with the general thinking for gold. Bought 30% of portfolio at 1170. No point to waiting given the market. Also plan to hold a long time.
Lot of talk from people like bill gross makes me think they are setting the stage for QE or stimulus (see link. best part starts ~2:20). Not much of a coincidence that there is a election comming.
Based on fridays intraday price action, the Elliott wave types have just opened the door to the possiblilty of a spx move higher than 1157. So, I maybe on hold for a spx short for a while.
Here is the video:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Gross%20Interview%20About%20U.S.%20Economy%2C%20Bond%20Market%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v_HauFTSsE5M.asf
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteHere is my thought for QE 2.0
I think the QE will start to gain ground as we go forward due to weaker economic data ..
I think the Stock is still looking good which I think I see a grat chance of more correction toward 900 - 950 before the Q>E come into play .. I guess just have to wait for more bear to jump into the bull campthat is when the bear market will resume in full blow ..
Thing from here will get deteriorate ..
below is the link which I wrote in 3 of june ..
http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2010/06/us-recovering-with-oil-spill-huh-eh-not.html ...
I believe we at the end of this bull phrase market ..
I am going to be patient ...
I agree with your analysis, we should see one bigger dip before q.e. 2 comes into the picture. The democrats can still pass more stimulus measure because they still control the congress. In January, this may change (I think they will lose control of the house). Remember, the new congress starts next year, to pass new legislation on the economy.
ReplyDeleteMy big questions is the uncertainty in precious metals. The "floor" under gold can either be at 1140 or 1100. I'm still waiting to get long; when the market goes down again, I think gold will sell off too. Much talk on the kitco forums about the 3rd week of august looking like a possible bottom coming in gold. Personally, I think 1140 should hold..
@og
ReplyDeletethats also my big question, silber i havent done that lot ,just some orko defends 1 euro and ecu (20% down last week now some big bounce)..
26.08 i have marked on calendar prices should be cheap there around when options expire again..
in austria u cannot buy physical silver tax 20%!!!but gold 0% iam sure will chance in the next years..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteTo play with option expiration this time might not be working as the month of august. As I think the trade will be too pack with long term investor.this cot will give me good idea of what might happen next few week.
Yestersday was a gooday to short n s&p any upside from here wil be verlimitex
hi pred
ReplyDeletemaybe iam getting to used on this pattern, and august we expire higher, but in silver u always(jan didnt work) get in one ore two days after expire a 50cent profit, in gold on every expire this year 20-40 dollar in no time.... i try to find a chart where this is shown..thats why its marked in calendar, if i feel good i try it sometimes with a shortterm call..
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteAre you still holding to your shorts for the s&p?
Andrés
Hi andreas,
ReplyDeleteI am bearish on stock now and i believe the best run for stock have already pass us , I am get ready for a full blown correction or sell off.
here is an interesting new to spook the bull
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110218/the-biggest-lie-about-us-companies?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode
it is intersting to me that only big bank and some exporting company is beating big time estimation but almost all consumer related company report profit and sale missed estimated ...
ReplyDeleteit is like smoke and mirror ...
hi pred
ReplyDeleteyes this big banks are in that buisness for stupid, borrow for 0,25% and lend back to goverment for 3%, gleithner thinks this is recovery and great for us taxpayer..
10.aug they meet, we will see if they want to help out obama..
Hello,
ReplyDeleteI think the best chance for the shorts is at aug 10 meeting. Market has held up despite bad news so if FED statement disappoints many will want to pull out from the market at the same time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-07/fed-easing-debate-intensifies-as-economic-data-point-to-slowing-recovery.html
Lets wait and see
Daniel
bearish news
ReplyDeletehttp://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/08/05/food_stamp_use_hit_record_408m_in_may/
Preditior and Allen:
ReplyDeleteI am looking to add to my gold position. Any thoughts for a good price? ... I was thinking of 1180~1190 USD.
Hi Preditor, Allen, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteHere is another article about 46+ US states being bankrupt. Marc Faber says the US has no choice but to monitize debt. Plus Bernanke, if it is upto him, will not allow the USA to move into deflation, so he will monitize US government debt.
Here is the article:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38593974
hi bob
ReplyDeletegold looks really strong, but miners still laaging, also on friday when weak numbers came in gold rallied..
my plan is waiting for 26.8 (option expire) there adding to pos..
here is the link with a chart option expire, gold/silver price
ReplyDeletehttp://www.godmode-trader.de/blog/weygand/2010/07/27/gold-nichts-wie-raus-versus-gute-nachkaufgelegenheiten#comments
iam still not sure if its a abc correction, gold moved down about 100 now retraces about 50 and another downmove about 100 follows..euro still is strong so i can wait alittle how it plays out..
Here is my thought for Q.E ver 2.0
ReplyDeletethe Fed will have to becareful with this bet, Cause if the Fed pull out the white flag too easily and restart the Q.E too soon.. we will choke with sudden inflation and will have very limited push in the economy.. What is dangerous is that now the world will likely face food inflation and will have effect on consumption.
By the restart the Q.E
- The Fed will just show the world that there is no recovery coming which will effect on the investment in business due to economy uncertainty.
-Dollar will lose more purchasing power
-Currently status for Treasury is looking good, with the rate yield hovering record low.. so it make no sense for the Fed to start Q.E at tomorrow meeting ...
the chinese have being moving into japanese bond.. I think the chinese is try to inflate the yen via bond purchasing to make Yen strength . so to make the country export more competitive ..
cheer everyone
Hi preditor, Allen, and everyone,
ReplyDeleteHey preditor if your right your right, the US economy is very bad. For the US to monitize debt again means that they will show the world that there is no real improvement so far. I wounder if the USA has a choice, they seem to be stuck, QE is not the answer, but maybe it is the only answer they have.
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link. The chart of the 'gold future seasonal 32 years' is, of course, very similar that the seasonal chart from Chris Carolan (carolan.org).
Basically, his chart shows a US$ -100 from early july to a low the last week of July thru the first week of Aug. Followed by a US$ 40~50 bounce into early aug followed by a near full retracement of US$ ~40 to mid Aug. But not a second leg down to a lower low. This then is followed by a ~11% rally into mid/late Sept. Again, very similar to your seasonal chart.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI buy physical for my long term saving not investment, only play future for investment purpose only,
Alot of thing have change for the past few 20 years, and the economy landcape have change significantly...
And i believe the gold investment have also change for the past few years ...
Gold investment trend have change since 2008, the chinese and india and a lot of country have already start dollar evacuate plan B, so I would recommend to set a side aportion to use the wothless dollar to buy gold for your saving ...
I believe the Liquidity in the market is running low or almost out, so the money to speculate the stock rally is limited and same for the fund to short the the gold future , just a food thought for your enjoyment cheer ...
I believe 1150 is the low for the gold ... any dip to 1160 - 1170 range is a buy ..
Hi Preditor, Allen, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteThis apparently is from the fed statement:
...........................................
Published: Tuesday, 10 Aug 2010 | 2:57 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters
"To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities," the Fed said in a statement.
..............................................
Well, this is very bad.
Had no choice, increased my gold position this morning (average US$1177) and will increase on any pullback. Expect to hold for awhile.
Cheers.
this new look to be trouble for boeing ...
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=am7cOnQiA8Hk
Hi everyone..
ReplyDeletePred, is this pullback an opportunity to enter long eur/usd ? The decision of the fed to keep rates low "for an extended period of time" may bring more upside Do you still have the target of 1,40?
Also would be good to know your opinion about the s&p, do you thing this pullback keep going and take us to or below july´s levels?
Thanks a lot
Andrea,
ReplyDeleteFor s&p 1060 -70, if breach through this barrier then 980 will be the first target to cover short .
For euro, , it should raise higher in mid to long term but for short term , euro might be under some pressure
Hello,
ReplyDeleteThis is huge barrier that has been removed to have more near relationships and more cooperation in Asia I think. Chinese and Korean have complained alot about this.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-15/japan-s-kan-apologizes-at-war-ceremony-skips-visit-to-yasukuni-shrine.html
a lot talk about Hindenburg omen.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-13/-hindenburg-omen-suggests-another-leg-down-in-stocks-technical-analysis.html
This is something I found that simplifies Elliot wave theory.
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/08/13/riding-the-elliott-wave-back-down-to-950-on-the-sp-500/
Regarding the FED-move. It just meant that they keep money supply at its level right now. Is it correct Preditor? So It does not mean that liquidity is back to the markets right?
Daniel
Hi Preditor, Allen, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteInteresting artice about US home loans. Apparently 9/10 loans are backed by the US goverment. Since more than 50% of US home loans are neagtive to some degree (loan is higher than the house value) then it is reasonable to assume that the US goverment owns these houses unless thing improve. Add to this that 46+ states of the united states have negative budgets and the situation is quite strange.
The only conclusion is that everyone in the US goverment thinks that this is a typical recession that the US will grow out of. Marc Faber and Jim Rogers do not agree with this idea, if I read them correctly.
Currently the US goverment pays US$350~400 billion in intrest payments per year. With the expectation that this intrest payment will increase to close to US$1 trillion per year in the next 5 to 10 years.
So maybe the only option for the US goverment is to monitize until the final collapse, like marc faber says.
This just doesn't seem like a good situation for anyone anywhere.
Here is the article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happens-if-fannie-and-freddie-disappear-2010-08-13?pagenumber=1
P.S. Increased gold position to 100%, average US$1191. Hope there is not a big pull back :)
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, Allen, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteWell Mort Zukerman is afrid of deflation to the point of being, basically, a communist. But he states, interestingly, that if something doesn't change in the next 6 to 12 months then the US is faced with disaster. 20 min long, but is interesting.
Here is the video:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Mortimer%20Zuckerman%20Interview%20on%20U.S.%20Economy%2C%20Fed%20Policy%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/va5nu7ypujTU.asf
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteThe blog is very quite these days, is everything ok?
One thing for sure, the news about Greece appears quite bad, maybe the spx will not make it to the US november elections before crashing:
http://www.businessinsider.com/austerity-is-turning-greece-into-an-economic-deadzone-2010-8#ixzz0wy5Zey9S
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteIt´ll be important to recieve your comments at this moments.
Are you seeing support at 1040 for SP or you think there´s way to go down.
Regards
Andrés
Hi Andreas,
ReplyDeleteI just back from vacation, alot of thing did not come as timely as i expected, so decided to switch my computer and going to have fun and leave all my short ...
This time, the big guy arrange an orderly decline, since the index have breach 1060 with strength and i have no doubt that the 1040 will be breach easily this time ...
I strongly believe the third quarter company result will be awful and will be quite shocking to the bull..so .... sit and hang on tight ..
With Food inflation reaping through the chinese spending power and india, plus raising interest rate world wide .. I think the world will need to slow down for now, cause we are now having serious food inflation and if the government still continue to push growth, we will have stagflation which will not have much impact on growth but might result into hyper-inflation mode ..
going to have fun and leave all my short ... =going to have fun and hold all my short
ReplyDeletebe careful with your s&p shorts, 90% of the time when 100% everyone is expecting a crash usually the opposite happens. Im not saying it wont happen, just be careful and don't get greedy.
ReplyDeletechris
hi
ReplyDeletegrats pred to ur shorts u where right as always, hm this time option expire dont worked out, with gold and silver,no cheap prizes hmpf..bought some as planned but now my average prize isnt that good anymore...
Hi Allen.. I know you follow timming charts, what do you think about large traders going long on the SP? May be we can have a surprise on Bernanke speech today?
ReplyDeleteHi Chris ,
ReplyDeleteThank you for you advice but I ammore comfortable with my short , I have wait for about1 month so I don't mind to wait for more tkefor the index to hit my target
Hi, Pred, what is your target this time? ...very impressed with your last target call of 1010. thanks..
ReplyDeleteww
hi
ReplyDelete@andres
yes iam following closly, this charts, looks like hedgefonds want to play another time a bounce to 200mva, while small traders seems to finally give up on their long position, which they started to buy end of march..bevor they where 1jear short with losses ,funny how this always plays out against them..
everyone knows sep is weak month for stocks i have a short and medium therm plan to play this, hope to see some pullback on monday to come in with some calls on dax stop 5830 target 6140 think theirs not much more to hope for at moment..
medium plan is to use the weak sep to accumulate cheap stoxx for yearend, maybe in 2 ore 3 weeks we could see preditors lows, dont think with this cot setup we go straight down without some bounce..but hard to argue with preditor he usually gets it more right than i *G*
Hi Everyone and Allen,
ReplyDeleteAllen, Thank you for your compliment ...
This how i think the market play will play out,, I anticipate a super bear trend in the next 1-2 session, if it does not happen today it might happen in the next 2-3 trading session .. And we will be in full bear market ..
My target is about 920 -950, when the index hit this target will start to cover my short.
For oil, I think we might see a full bear market too. so I think US$65.00 - US$67 should be a good target to accumulate long and cover short..
Beware of bloodbath session .. not sure when it will happen but I think it will happen soon ..
Hi Pred
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you...Wich do you think could be the catalyst to that sell off?
Thanks
Andrès
I feel the best play right now is to short 30year US Govt bonds. Small specs are and seasonal highs and the bigs have started backing out of their long positions. Guys if you have morgages and don't lock them in now, you will be missing a lifetime opportunity. Bond prices are about to go WAY down and interest rates in the next month or so will begin their historic climb. Oh and im cheering for you preditor, hope you make a fortune.
ReplyDeletechris
hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on short 30 years bond, but i am going to be a bit patentail on the short 30 years bond ... but i will soon short it ...
cheer everyone
FYI - USA Econimic calender:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Hello everyone,
ReplyDeleteNot fun to have been a bear last week. Wonder what reactions there will be to Obamas proposals this week.
China made a statement that makes me worry a bit about my shorts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-06/china-to-aggressively-expand-imports-ministry-says-update1-.html
This kind of things is what can create a sustained recovery in my opinion. Guess they want to return some of the american bonds also.
Daniel
Hi Preditor and Allen:
ReplyDeleteThe large trader COTs data has moved back to zero.
PS emini snp500 COTs data
ReplyDeleteAlso an article about IMF gold sales:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIJCKFZSUUgE
hi
ReplyDelete@bob
seems hedgefunds really wanted to play another time the 200mva,maybe another bullish monday, than some weakness should be ahead..really crazy how it always follows cot.. sometimes with some timedelay..
I agree, it almost never fails.
ReplyDeleteThe rally started on february continued a little bit more after trader COTs data moved to the short side.
Pred, it´d be good to hear about you.
Allen:
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on gold? Maybe a technical breakout above US$1250. Also, this may be a seasonaly strong period.
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteWell Pimco see inflation in the future, here is the article:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aqqEDrWMDO3w
hi bob
ReplyDeletethink everybody in this blog is long gold or miners and doing great..iam waiting for price around 1350 to take some profit, there around i expect some pullback ..
i'm nuetral with gold, i just own physical. I would have to disagree with you though, i think spot gold prices short to medium term are ready to fall.
ReplyDeletechris
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteDo you think equities rally is done or could they keep on going up for a while?
Daniel
hi dan
ReplyDeletehard to say, if we break 1130/1135 then there is a good chance the rally will continue. The CPI came out flat and (of course food and fuel are not in the equation), this makes me think the fed will crank up the printing presses and if this happens the potential for upside on the S&P increases. The gold futures are so heavily manipulated and that makes them dangerous so unless i can get in at a really good price i just dont mess around with it unless there are blantant signs like small specs heavy in the market with the commericals on the other side. The little guys nearly always lose in these situations.
chris
Thanks chris,
ReplyDeleteI also think they are itching to print but question is when.
Daniel
Hi everyone!!
ReplyDeleteAllen .. did you check timming charts?? last time large traders were at this level in the short side was in october 2008..what do you think about it??
Hi Preditor, Allen, Andres, and everyone:
ReplyDeleteYes e-mini spx COTs data suggests spx has downside potential.
lol, pred did you get a job since you lost big time with you s&p shorts?
ReplyDeletechris
Hey Chris,
ReplyDeletePersonally I think Preditor is right in thinking that the spx will correct or even crash. He clearly said that the timing of the short may have been early but that the conclusion will be the same.
Check the COTs data, apparently some big money hedgefunds are short also.
Clearly Bernanke has been doing everything in his power to prop up the US economy and stock market. But after the US midterm elections things may change and rapidly.
So far the debate on this blog has been interesting and respectfull, this I think is the best approach.
hey bob i just call it like i see it...no disrespect intended, just tryin to draw pred out for comments. if everyone agreed on this blog wouldnt that be dull.
ReplyDeleteas traders its not our job to involve ourselves with geopolitical affairs and somehow connect it to the economy. as a rule you should just be concerned with price action. Not sweating the elections.
hi
ReplyDeleteas bob said nothing has changed for me, cot data says there should be downside ahead,small traders increasing their long pos, large trader havent increased their shorts but still a very big short position..dont want to worry to much so just playing it with unleveraged etf on stoxx..
gold works perfekt,now very cloase to my levels to sell around 1350 than chances are high for a 100 dollar pullback..
dont think we have to worry about preditor, he is one of the best traders out there what i have seen from him ..he is enough pro to not go all in in a risky short position..
for me the marked must be seen at moment like a car that slings from inflation to deflation with central banks on steering wheel trying to get it in control, but are unabel, the more the try the more it will sling until it finally breaks out in one direction we dont know when and in which one for sure..
ReplyDeleteso i try to play both sides not giving to much about that inflation talk at moment and stoxx can only go up..and i will not give to much on that deflation talk maybe in a few weeks when stoxx are cheap again.. i must asume that car stays on track and at the same time keeping in mind some protection against the final breakout, when the car isnt in controll but that could be years from now so u cannot just play amargeddon..
Hi Everyone:
ReplyDeleteGood comment about the effect of the central bankers causing uncertainty in the world economy.
My thinking is very similar for gold. Am looking to take profits before years end, thanks to Preditor I got a good entry price.
The move in silver is impressive, again, another great call by Preditor.
Pred..It´d be nice to have new post from you. There has been more than a month since your last comment and two and a half from your last post.
ReplyDeleteAllen..this time it seems that large traders are going short a little bit early, but let see what happens this week. I´m almost all in cash looking for market direction. Don´t you think may be we can have a surprise to the upside with companies starting reporting results this week..??
hi andres
ReplyDeleteiam waiting whole year for such setups like at moment, its tricky u cannot say when it will start,this week or next but it should play out like always that large traders are the winners and small lose their money..
this week support at 6060 in dax could be a good try grapping 100 long points..
hm thinking and trading often ur thinking fools u, when u are in a position u filter news different..if large traders cloase their shorts without market going down or market moving up i know i have lost, i sell shorts and go long.. so much thinking is eliminated..its simpel and works much better than throing a coin or alot of other stuff that other people try..*G* but we will see how it plays out..
Hi everyone.
ReplyDeleteBob. Allen, Andreas , Chris, and everyone here.
I have being lazy something like not doing anything.
I have make a bad call on spx but I manage to cover the short when benbernake announce qe light.. My make a slide lose on that.. For my remaing position is doing the magic so no hard feeling a bout the spx lost..
My take on qe version might not Take place in this meeting November as the us economy will improve significantly due to the weakness of dollar justlike the weak euro do the magic in Europe economy.. So the upcoming dAta in usa should be better thenanticipated which js why the qe ver2 will be delay.
Hi Pred..Is great having you here again !!
ReplyDeleteSo you`re expecting this rally to continue for a while..?
Now we are aproaching to the start of the earnings season on thursday with Alcoa, don`t you see another possible leg of this rally??
Thanks
Hi andreA,
ReplyDeleteI think the us economic indicator will look better in term of manufacturer and exporter sector which support service industry.
The stock market have rally hard for the past month and the boj just start a new round of Japanese qe... There is some room to the upside before correction .
My target is 1175 - 85. Then we will some sel
We might see some correction before fed qe version start.
ReplyDeleteI will take my profit in gold and silver today.
Hope every have a great trading
hi pred
ReplyDeletegreat to hear from u with gold we have same idea also taking some profit, with plan buying back when retracement comes to around 1200-1250
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteGood to read your post! I also sold 50% of gold position. Will sell the remainder very soon. "When you see a profit, grab it"!! Very good advice.
Cheers.
Hi everyone ,
ReplyDeleteWith the dollar trend will persist throughout 2010-2011 , I guess the gold correction will brief and sweet one. But silver will more violent, so I might start to pile into silver and gold after t
Hi Preditor, allen, andres, and everyone:
ReplyDeletePreditor's thoughts for USA dollar devaluation look very serious. Here is a video of bill gross saying the same thing; there is a possible threat of more and more USA QE.
On a personal note, I think these goverment people are causing more of a problem, not solving it.
Here is the video:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Gross%20Says%20Employment%20Report%20Signals%20More%20Fed%20Easing&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vq6QxM7xFe3Y.asf
Relative to QE2 in the USA, every news station in the country has spoken about it in detail - and presumably everyone knows what is going to happen. So I wounder what dirty trick wallstreet has up its sleeve this time?
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor and Allen,
ReplyDeleteMaybe gold is simply having a sideways correction/consoldation and at some point, the 20dema or the channel lower support or the 50dema the next up leg will start.
The two things that make me pause is that the rsi and macd both say gold is oversold right now.
Both of your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
PS this "sell the QE2 news" is also a negative.
Thanks
hi bob
ReplyDeleteto gold, think gold has played out great and short positions are already very cloase to record again, thats for me a good time to take some profit and wait for another time with just 200-230k ,would be surprised if gold stays that high without correction next option expire..iam still goldbull no question just prize moved alittle to high to fast for me..not to misunderstand iam not selling everything just taking some profit what else should u do now if u sell all gold i dont know hehe
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks, I still have 50% of my gold position. The longer gold moves sideways at USD 1350 (spot) the more I think a next leg up may happen. But maybe not. We shall see.
Cheers
Hi Preditor and everyone:
ReplyDeleteAn article about potential currency wars and a second one about another possible real war in the middle east:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-strikes-back-china-daily-warns-about-currency-war-blames-dollar
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1591802.php/Israel-announces-new-housing-tenders-in-East-Jerusalem-2nd-Roundup
Hi Allen and everyone!!
ReplyDeleteLarge traders are on the short side, at a level that wasn´t seen since september 2008...everybody knows what hapened afterwards..what do you think about that??
Sounds like some headwind for me,
ReplyDeleteI sure need that,
Daniel
hi andres,
ReplyDeletei cannot say alot new, all basically the same iam just happy after that headwind with dax new high that large traders increased shorts..risk is low just etf dont want sleepless nights over shorts..iam down somewhat but cot setup looks very good for me..
Is this blog dead? where are you guys??
ReplyDeletewould be good to know about you Pred..
Yes, what are Pred's thoughts on gold, silver, and the dollar and euro? I've always followed..
ReplyDeleteHi everyone:
ReplyDeleteI miss Preditor also.
Sold my entire gold position. Would like to short silver but maybe too risky.
Preditor what do you think, any good longs or shorts?
Allen
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about timing charts large traders cot data..? may be this time they´d anticipated too much in their shorts..?? I´m not shorting but I reduced my long positions, but may be better I´d take the advice, not to fight against the fed..
Hello Preditor, I enjoy reading your comments. It has been a while. May I get your Outlook about stocks and economy in general? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi everyone ,
ReplyDeleteIf there is still anyone here , I just lose some passion in write the blog, cause posting position in the blog is not quite a good idea but what best thing to do is play with the trend plus good timing.
I think we are going to extreme inflation mode.
ReplyDeleteWe should position on the long side. Stock commodity . Especially in gold and silver.
Since last position I boost my big position and silver and took delivery of both item.