Hi everyone ,
Hope everyone is well and good health. Just lose some passion is write the blog . But I am back so let go into my thought about things happen around the world.
First I like to spam the inflationary fed keep devalue the dollar purchase power which create a feeling for the world that we are earn more but actual we can buy lesser thing. From the 60 minute show when ben told the show what is in his mind, i start to pile into long in all position stock soft commodity and precious metal and oil.
China is gearing up to fight inflation but will they be able to do that, it is will quit difficult to fight inflation at the same maintaining growth at 8-9%. What china facing is food inflation due to extreme weather happening world and causes supply problem worldwide. We have both the india and china growth at fast rate which mean more middle class is entering the economy... this new working class and middle class will demand better food more meat and good fruit better quality meal better cloth buy more car (by the way with cheap compact car hit the market this will a bullish to oil too) ... With the food constrain with the supply while demand is increase greatly ....
The China is tightening poicy to control but this is not about liquid control , it is about limited supply. People agreedyness will keep push the price to new high.
I bet the commoditity will on the up trend, until new unitl supply is establish.
Oil: bullish possible target US$95.00 - US$ 100 (accumulate at any price US$83.00 - US$89)
GOLD and silver: VERY BULLISH (uptrend with no target insight)
Stock: mild bullish
Soft commodities: VERY BULLISH ( 3- 6 month)
Dollar : BEARISH
Bond: long term bearish
I will add more item in my comment
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It´s great having you back again Pred!!
ReplyDeleteAndrès
Hi Andres,
ReplyDeletehow are you doing..
I am updating the blog.. see you later
Today prove yo be another buying opportunity for gold
ReplyDeleteYou guy better start to load up oil. The euro austerity will start to stablise
ReplyDeleteNext years si I think the Europe situation will start to improve next year.
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteGood to read your post!!
Your thinking is very sensible.
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteHow are you doing?
Trading idea...
ReplyDeletePlay with the long trend is the best way to protect yourself.
If the trend is an up trend, never go short the market , always buy on dip will make you safe don't put a stop lose even if you lose out money cos eventually the market will move up with the trend. Stop lose is only work if you are playing short term against trend so stop will be a good strategy.
Take profit from time to to time .
Follow the trend
Bull = buy
Bear = Short
Stop lose only is you are play short term against trend .
Preditor:
ReplyDeleteThat is the way to do it!
The best is an up trend, people always like an up trend; especially polititians, and all those 401K retirement accounts are long only. Additionally, is the possibility of a bubble!!
Also, even though bonds are a terrible investment right now, an interesting suggestion I heard once, is to squirrel away some money from time to time in a short term bond ladder held to maturity in a seperate account and never trade that money but use it for living. I use a two year ladder with a snp rating ~BB+ to BBB. This lets me stay fully invested with the trend but still have income from the bond ladder.
Cheers
Soft commodities look very upbeat ..... placing more bet on soft commoditiy
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteYes, soft commodities are doing good.
Did anyone see Allen ...
ReplyDeleteOur chart master, just want to said if you still view this blog..
Preditor:
ReplyDeleteI was able to find some blogs and sites with his ID: ALLEN32321. But I haven't yet had the time to dig deeper, for example posting on the blog and so on. I maybe able to next week, but if you like you can locate him using GOOGLE using ALLEN32321.
Cheers
any1 one have any idea regards, brigdestone stock
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of speculation about Chinese going to increase interest rate prudently next year which I serious doubt about this speculation. Does raising interest in china can really control inflation. I doubt this rate increase will be able to control food inflation. But I think raising I interest rate under tight supply condition will only and fuel to the situation until the new supply and stockpile is establish there is actual limited option to control food inflation.
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteI don't know much about bridgestone.
I do agree about China, they will keep moving forward, like Jim Rogers says they seem to have a bright future.
Europe I think will eventually be ok, like you say a year from now should show some improvement. And they have learned the important lession that the new America is not to be trusted.
Do you have any thoughts about the country Turkey?
Cheers
JimChano, is betting big bear in China property market... But i think he is abit too fast on this.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-17/chanos-says-china-real-estate-boom-goes-unabated-.html
China will be investment back hole for the next decade, and alot of company and foreign expertise will start to move to china to expense business so eventually this property will be taken up, there will some short term correction but should not be a big one.
with the raising wages and growing number of middle class , there is not one thing to take note about food inflation, once the food inflation start to stablised somewhere in 2012 , and we might witness some deflation in food ... if this event occur, china consumption will explode again .. so thing i am looking out for.
One thing to take note, the high speed train in china, will bring more opportunity to inner china, and china is going to improve urban life, now china have already develop the coast province and there still alot of thing need to develop in the inner china ..so another exposion development will start in 2012 ....
I think Jim chano is in the wrong bus this time,
China is just in the second booming phrase so ....
But anything could happen ..
Cheer
Hi everyone:
ReplyDeleteCheck out this news
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=12435032...
what do you think?
Cheer
Hi Preditor, thanks for the news. I am based in Toronto, and I see that shopping mall here is pretty full too. People are buying clothes, though prices are not very discounted in my opinion. I think stocks priced this in. Stocks are really hot lately. Will it continue to run into January I wonder? What do you think? Are we returning to normal time now? Thanks. Aseng.
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteWe are living in extreme time, which is far from normal...
I think we are living in steroid time, untill the steriod wear out we will see the great correction
Thank you Preditor. It seems every country is racing to debase their currency. I understand your thoughts on buying commodity. It is the only way to protect saving. Aseng
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you back Pred. I value your insight. I'm long oil here looking for about 95 near term.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/20/debt-crisis-threatens-us-cities
ReplyDeleteSpooky news .... GOld and silver is for your long term holding...
For long term investment, I think the emerging economic with good balance sheet is a good place to be... Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand...
ReplyDeleteThe banking is strong, the economy is expand, and it good for the next big boom ..
Hi OG...
ReplyDeleteThnx and good to hear from you again
hey guys,
ReplyDeletejust wanted to drop you all a late christmas present. Watch for the british pound to rally very soon. happy trading everyone!
chris
thanx chris.
ReplyDelete