Hi everyone.
Happy New years
The Chinese raise increase to curb Food inflation, the india have try to control inflation for the past year 2010with rate hike but it seem the inflation cannot be stop and keep charging higher due to commodity supply deficit.. so by raising more rate I think it will do little to stop inflation but will slow down economy.
The raising of agriculture price is also a good things it is like a good way to distribute wealth to farmer which I have see alot of farmer is now getting wealthier which will one way another ... but any too much is not good to little is not good but we will have to leave with high commodities price until the new supply is established.
There is some circulation that the Japaneses debt is getting out of hand and country debt rating is getting cut but it is still class as "rumour" but if there is smoke the fire will follow. With the saving rate decline, this is something to watch out for.. while the rescuer might be the Fed. Cause i think the US need an alliance in asia to contain China influence.
Clearly the china is finding new alliance in the West especially the Europe and central Asia and Africa, like helping funding euro debt backing Spain debt and EURO, this is a strategic political move which will bear fruit once the Europe crisis stabilized in 2012. ( for now the "investor" will focus on the Euro crisis which is relative small when compare with US and Japanese Debt ... so something to look out for.
Australia Flood.
It seem like the the flood in commodities gaint in Austrialia will bring a huge impact to commodities and the situation will get worse before getting better . Like flooding the mine ... it will take month before this mine will be operatable ..
And what will push the oil price up is the the coal, both indonesia and australia is major coal producer..so the bullish in energy is just adding up more chip in this sector.. with the cool weather continue, the natural gas and distaille gasoline will be quicken draw down especially in china.
Soft commodities will too as you guy already know, raising interest rate will not stop any inflation ... this is a classic inflation where demand outpact supply... and not about liquidity.
So long everyone, this should be publish since last week but i was on holiday again..
So cheer everyone..
Please input more comment so I respond more ..
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http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/99536/20110111/greece-european-union-gdp-imf-international-monetary-fund.htm#
ReplyDeleteThere is a split of opinion as to the direction of the Euro from here. We have seen quite the Eur short squeeze over the past couple of sessions. Are you in agreement with Goldman that we have an initial target of 1.37? I know you mentioned before that Euro zone will get its act together, but what is this opinion predicated upon? I see a lot of smart money - big hedge funds included - that are short the euro. Some are suggesting the 1.35 area as a great place to short with a target of under 1.20 or so. Would I be dumb to do this? For the moment I am staying away from the whole euro trade. I'm long S&P and grains. Also, it seems that metals are consolidating, either for a big move up, or down, or up then way down. Very confusing action in the metals...
ReplyDeleteHi OG,
ReplyDeleteRemoved all your confusion ... stick to the trend...
Dollar is a long bearish so , should go short on strength 81 - 82 is a good target to place major short.
For EURO, If you would like to play short, please do it in short term (put a stop lose to your position at 1.32) cause EURO will strength to fight inflation.
My EURO accummulate (long) target is 1.26 - 1.30
I am on the long side of the EURO trade so, my play is buy on dip.
As For Gold, for the jobless claim which caming in more then anticipated, what make the situation more confusion is the wholesale inflation make a huge jump so the market is in a confusion mood in short term.
With inflation is going to on hype mode( hopefully not), the central bank around the world will be on more tightening mode which should not bode well for precious metal in short term.
Which my play is to used this opportunity to accummulate gold at lower target which I think 1320 -1340 should be a nice place to be long, i might be a bit pessimistic in short term, but overall gold is in a VERY bullish trend
Hi Pred and Og
ReplyDeleteSo you don`t see euro going down from 1,26? Y´m in the short side right now, and with Portugal mess that´s haven´t been resolved yet Y´m having a lower target. Y don`t know your opinion but sooner or later Y think Portugal will have to be bailed out, so Y think there will bwe more pressure in the euro in the short term. What do you think?
It´ll also be good to know your opinion and tragets for soft commodities
Thank you Pred!!
PS Any news about Allen??
Hi Andrea,
ReplyDeleteI think the euro crisis is almost behind us, with the austery plan in irleand and greek is stablishing, portugul is still a problem, but the chinses japan and Germany is supporting the what the EURO economy is more worry is the inflation which is moving fast.
Intereest rate would not solve the problem but raise Currency can do better job, so I think the all major currency will raise against dollar and precious metal.
For soft commoditites, i think it is in bullish trade , since the timing is important in soft commoditites trade, the price will make new high before the new supply is establish... but there is no one way market.. so take profit from time to time
I added a play to short the 30 year US treasury. I'm looking for another leg down from here at around 122. Also I am short the yen, and I added to my Euro short at an average of 1.34. But I agree with Pred that this move will not be a sustained down move, rather its a short term trade with a target of 1.29. Trichet may raise rates in the second half of 2011 which would boost the eur (this is to fight inflation as mentioned by pred). I am long of wheat right now as well.
ReplyDeletePred, thanks for the response. I appreciate your insights, you are a smart guy. I'm waiting for a little correction in the metals to get long. Like you said, low 1300's in gold is a good spot.
U guys makin any money?
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeletemy bet on oil is still doing well. still waiting for the target to be touch.. i accumlate at about US$84.00
my long euro is also doing well ...
for Gold still waiting to enter hopefully it will hit my target at about 1330 - 1340 range..
And soft commodities is still doing well.
...
And chris how are you doing ..
Hey man, my trading has done well this year. My thoughts are line up mostly with OG. With the exception i think the euro will go much lower. Majority of Germans want out of the euro union and with a string of elections coming up next month, merkel will have a hard time bailing out the PIGS. If this happen US dollar will surge thru most of this year. All commodity prices should fall with exception of grains and this I think depends more on weather supply and demand. Good luck and good trading.
ReplyDeleteWell I pared down my short treasury position. I think we have a short and sharp correction on our hands here in most assets. Dumped my S and P long. I'm looking to buy some oil on this dip here, maybe around 86ish (hoping we can get there). I am debating whether to get long of copper at the bottom of this correction. If we dip to 4.10 or so, then I want to buy in search of 4.80 or so by April. I'd like to hear some thoughts on which metal to get long..copper, gold or silver? Maybe i'll also buy a contract of gold and silver each on this dip.
ReplyDeleteHi OG and Chris,
ReplyDeleteChris do agree with you that we the germany public will have problem with Government with the bail out which is something which the germany need to settle. However, when we speak about EURO we are taking about another different story.
With the Chines and Japanese backing up Euro zone, I think the EURO will be ok ..
The Euro will face short term pressure but everything should work out by the End of this years, I am less worry about the euro zone.
What more worrying is the inflation,
But will take profit in my long EURO at 1.40 - 1.45 target.
For soft commodities, I think we should move higher by end of next week cos it really make no sense to selling position if there is no clear number on harvasting or supply... will still keep the position
For Gold and Silver I think 1330 is reasonable target, i will pay very close attention to this dip and will be ready to enter long at anytime first position around 1340
For Stock in S&P, i will see today trading season before i close my long.. I think we might go higher at 1300 ... cross finger and waiting
The market is playing the new about more chinese tightening and interest rate raise, I think I will wait and see, cause rasing interest rate will not fix the inflation issue but letting the currency and i think the chinese will choose not to rasie interest rate this time round ..
For Copper, it is a buy on dip ...
Cheer and have a nice trading day
china and japanese buying up europes debt is just jaw boning. Asia knows better to throw good money after bad. China would like nothing more then to see an expensive US dollar, they have huge US assets and reserves. Although both us and europe debt based economies are doomed, i believe europe will be the first to crack and will most likely sometime this year. As always time will tell. We've been hearing about hyperinflation for several years but still is magically in check. The classic sell the rumour buy the fact. gold will fall back to earth once things are normalized again. The US gov't is in the process of making policys to bring debt ceiling back to levels seen in 2006, i believe this will be very healthy for US economy.
ReplyDeleteI read commitment of traders to pick the best set up trades. www.cftc.gov. This usually indicates where smart money is placing bets. Guessing at what govts are gonna do will make me a very poor man.
I have alot of respect for your thoughts on investing. I hope you will begin posting more frequent. Are you german nationality?
all the best
chris
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteyou guy better start taking position in precious metal.
I have buy gold and silver in yestersday dip...
Please pay close attention to this dip ... and add long position.
have a nice weekend
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2110030120110122..
ReplyDeletethis is soft commodities mover news
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that the chinese would like to see expensive dollar due to their holding, but these motion set to change so. They have being doing for the past years and what it did is by keeping the dollar value they invited inflation to their country. By holding uo the dollar it give foreign fund flow to invest in china cheaply which result combustion inflation in china which happen for the past 1 years. So i think they changing their thinking and will be less supportive to the dollar stenght but install let the yuan value raise.
Chris, regarding Gold, even when thing become normalise the Gold will not crash as I think gold will become important monetary in exhange rate system for time to come. When Yuan become more import in the world trade so will the gold be. The only which will make Yuan accpeted worldwide it is because of Gold .. this is what i see, the gold will be in a great bubble before it busted... the dollar will deeply demage for time to come and gold will shoot to Moon untill it bust before stablized to a more stablize level but i don't see gold price to crash in the next 10 years so it shoul;d be quite safe til thing change
And the Chinese premier visit US this trip and make lot of deal with US government this be a sweet short lift to economy for the next few quarter but the US economy will still be in the great correction ....
Anyway good hunting everyone ..
i just don't see how gold could ever become a medium of exchange there isn't enough of it to go around. Not saying its not possible but to me gold is more of a novelty item that people are clinging to. Just like most everyone else I bought plenty of physical in 2008, i'm just leary of something at its all time high. If it gets outta hand goverments will put a ceiling on it maybe confiscate and revalue. I don't know just my thoughts. I'm trying to keep an open mind.
ReplyDeleteDo you still have an accumulate target of 84 on oil? Looking good so far. Yes I think that Precious Metals are giving us a nice dip here, i'm about to start buying any day now or maybe next week. I closed my Euro short!
ReplyDeleteHi Chris and OG,
ReplyDeleteThe gold will never been an exhange medium but will be used as backed value for currency. Like a store value for currency.
Recall the the QE2 will be stop around June ... so I think the market will go on for a while more may march or april, then i think it is time to push the bear button..
For oil, I think the range long around 85 - 87 then sell around 91 - 92 should be good targe.
For the precious metal, anything can happen now. add more matal at yestersday dip especially silver ..
Hi Preditor, do you think Ben can do QE3 if economy still slow by then? We still have high unemployment in US, and I can't see how economy can improve for real other than high inflation. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteQE3 three will be on card but what the time is something which will show in the distance future. Obama just reduce the coporate tax, the the US will face short fall in revenue ... so the dollar and the bond will continues is long term bearishness ..
This years the inflation will be a great problem so i think we will have slow down in world economy.
The is dip buying opportunity, get more phyical gold and silver , i have request delivery on my silver at this price.
This is a must a dip buy in precious metal.
Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit.
- The Great Finacial J.P. Morgan - 1912
Thank you very much for keeping me on track Preditor. I watch your outlook to keep my perspective in check. Trichet said central banks are united in fighting inflation. Do you see interest rates rising this year? If so, is this bad for stocks? Where do you feel snp go from here? Aseng
ReplyDeleteAseng,
ReplyDeleteI have close my long in today trading around 1292 in s&p. And short at 1290. I think the stock is due for some serious correction cross finger and waiting
Hi Preditor, thanks. Stocks have climbed so long, I forgot what decline looks like. How low do you think s&p can go? Today was strange. Oil rose, s&p declined. I thought they go together. I made serious money by luck today because yesterday I bought lots of oil double etf. I unloaded some oil and keeping some for inflation ride. Good luck with short s&p. I will add some short as well on Monday. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteCongrat... :)
With the political trouble raising in the middle east .. the oil might go wild in the short term ... might go reach 95 by next week.
thing is moving very fast and violent lately, so hope everyone, prepare yourself.
For euro, i doubt the EURO zone will raise interest rate to combat inflation but will instead let euro raise, this is will also help the euro zone bond issue more easy for country which have problem.
S&P i think we might be in short term correct maybe 1240 should be a good target to coverage short.
Let see how the market in the next few week...
Preditor, thank you very much! Your analysis makes sense. I will use it to help guide my trades. Thank you Preditor. Good luck! Aseng
ReplyDeleteGood call on oil! My feeling is that if the euro gets to 1.40 and S&P can go up a little bit more before a correction. Its looking more and more like the dollar will not rally like many thought - many hedge funds might cover their euro and other shorts (like gold). I wonder what happens next five sessions, looks like the currencies are reaching important inflection points. Pred, you think 1.45 on the euro is gonna happen on this run? This would put gold and silver higher one would think.
ReplyDeleteHow is everyone? I'm liking the price action past few days in gold and silver. But I think I will take some profits if we get over 30 in silver. What are you guys thoughts on how high we can go on this leg in the gold and silver? Because a lot of traders see a broadening top formation on the charts which is about to be tested again (3rd time).
ReplyDeleteCot report is showing that gold should have a nice swing up
ReplyDeletefor month of February
Hi every 1.
ReplyDeleteHope everyone was well..
Oil is looking attractive again stay in my range should be another good opportunity to go long but this time the selling target is about 95 - 96 ..
For silver and gold, I think we will break to a new high ... dollar is in trouble same as for bond..
It take china 40 years to accumulate 900 billion worth of trasury, it only take US FED three years to accummulate 1.1 trillion worth of treasury ... this is not work and unheathly ... infaltion is a sure thing, no matter how many world central bank raise interest rate it will still be hopeless
http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/fed-passes-china-as-largest-treasury-customer/
Hi Preditor, thanks for your insight! I still don't get how oil go down so much? I know USD probably went up because of Egypt. But that still doesn't make sense because of US debts. I am confused. Does China still want to support USD? Oh well, I just carry on buying oil for now. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteAny recovery in dollar will be short term, i think the long term value for dollar will be further devalue.
China will not be so support to dollar in long term cause if china continues to support dollar they will definitely invite inflation to the economy.
Will add more oil in today season... oil is definitely have more value then dollar so i wink wink at oil.
....Gold is shooting up and silver is my raising star ....
how is everyone doing
Hi every 1,
ReplyDeletehow is everyone doing?
I am adding more oil today.. using up all my oil port fund... these market want to frighten me out of my position, I have a solid margin to cover so let see how it go today...
Good trade everyone
hey preditor, i'm short euro @ 1.3821. Inflation numbers came out today for US and it doesn't look good. Do you think fed will be forced to raise interest rates next month? I mean it is certainly a possiblity. Looks like gold will finish strong for the month of feburary.
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, I'm doing alright. I have lots of oil too. I'm going to hold until at least $95. Thanks for sharing your thoughts about USD. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHey, doing great. I'm long the silver futures from 28 or so. Looking good! I heard some exchange trader saying he thinks we could get to about 36 on this run without any real major resistance/correction. I'm probably gonna take profits if we get there, or at least tighten stops to very close. What are your thoughts on where to take the profits?
ReplyDeleteHi Pred and everyone!
ReplyDeleteI´m not longing euro right now, what do you think getting long at this levels?
Thank´s a lot
Andrés
Hi Chris and Andrea,
ReplyDeleteIf you ask me which one is a better choice to long , i think EURO have more stable outlook then dollar.
Cause the economy is trialing expectation while the EURO zone economy indicate is more robust then US.
And don't forget that the Euro zone economy have being fixing the debt for the pass two years. so I strongly believe the euro Zone debt problem will start to stablized by end of this or early next year.
Further more I think the Europe will start to do more inflation fight which should bold well for the Euro.
Hi Og, this time i think US$35.00, US$36.00 is a reasonable target but anyway, take profit from time to time.
Hi Aseng, i think the oil might break to US$97 - US$100.00 area. but I will start taking profit at US$95.00 and sell into strength.
havea good trade everyone
quick tip: Be lookin for a spot to get long yen.
ReplyDeleteHello Preditor, thank you for your kind comment. I took small profit in my oil. It's been like holding my breath under the water. Your comments have been very helpful with keeping my perspective in check. I'm holdign the rest towards $100. Thank you Preditor. Aseng
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for a buying opportunity in grains. I like wheat , corn, or beans. Lets see if this dip materializes by end of week. Hey Pred, good calls as usual.
ReplyDeleteHi og..
ReplyDeleteI will follow your call this time..
All in for soft commodities soya bean
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteThe Libya situation will end like Egypt, which should have effect on oil price.
With Bloodshed and international condemn on the Libya ruler ... the ruler will have hard time hang on to power, so I think the violent situation will end soon ... and there should be a sell off in oil.
I will take profit on my oil position 80% of my position and see on the sideline.
Good trade everyone
I decided to pile on some shorts in the s and p. Preditor, are you still holding that short from 1290? anything can happen, but I think the pullback will be shallow and not go beyond s&p 1250. But this assumes that problems do not spread to saudi arabia and cause an oil shock (I do not think they will, as that government is handling it). Many people feel that this bull market in equities can go another quarter.
ReplyDeleteBtw, looks like commodities are taking a hit. There was even a rumor planted that Ghadaffi was shot, and they hiked margin on the oil. I'm looking for another dip here to scoop some silver. The 18 day moving average is at 30.25 or so. I am still waiting to buy wheat/corn/beans. Also, cotton may be a good buy soon.