Hi Everyone.
I am now on traveling in Chiang Rai to one of the most poor village and writing from the one of the rural part of Thailand.
Internet access is very difficult. I have to travel at least 5 km to find the nearest mobile phone receiption which lucky come with Edge internet connecttion..
So the real inflation is starting to kick into the world and further chaos start to develop in the world market.
When i travel to rural part, I heard the villager around talking about bad government which result high food cost. It seem like political game and rumour spreading in rural which create discontent the rural or the low income with the government. I think the trend already start to develop world.
So to prevent the chaos, a lot government will start to pump in more fund to keep up the inflation which will lead higher inflation.
Anyway, the end result will be the crash of the stock market world wide which i preparing to short market big time.
If the US economy GDP growth by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, we got to be very worried cause the real inflation growth in US in the forth quarter should be no less then 4% so in real term we got negative growth in real gowth in the economy.
With inflation is in hot pursue, I am not going to be a bull in the stock market. Bull commodities will a better bet from here on.
So the Gold is close to all time high SILVER MAKE THE ALL TIME HIGH. It this the end of the precious bull market? Hardlly and I think the silver might touch US$40.00 before going into side way mode or correction.
Precious metal:
Dude to droping of silver - gold ratio, there is a great chance that at some point in the furture, the gold will start to out perform silver, but now the silver will be the start of the stage.
Silver Target will be US$40-US$42
Gold target will US$1520
These two target should be a good place to take your profit in my opinion.
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Oil.
After a small pull back at US$101.00 which is the place i take 90% of my profit but did not post on re-position at 95 - 96 area but anyway...
With so many uncertainty in middle east, the oil might be raise to US$110 - 112. nymex.
And i hope the oil will not touch US$125, if this the case, the world will be in deep trouble, with raise food and oil, I think the consumer will be strong enough to handling both at the same time.
So the bull in equitie should move very cautiously from here.
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Soft commoditites
With the stockpile at record low, price should easily hit all time high..Food security will be government top priority which will bode well for the soft commoditites price OG make a great call which I managment to make big position in soyabean at 1310, before the rally begin...
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Stock ..
I will be recommending to find a good position to short the market, which i think S&P 1330 - 1340 should a good short position then 1350-1360 and all in if the index at US$1380 on ward.
Short this market should be in cautious way, be prepare margin for any short squeeze cause there will distraction to mislead you.
Ok hope everyone have a great trading and will try to up my comment when ever i have a chance.
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nice post! I like that you have a unique perspective on Asia being in Thailand. I'm in Florida in the U.S. and I have a pretty good read on whats going on here.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the euro here and thinking that its going to have a hard time getting beyond 1.40. The interest rate differentials are important, and while they support the euro, you can't ignore the widening bond spreads between Greece and Germany. Looks like the Portugal debt market is having problems too. So a rate hike would be beneficial to Germany but a major problem for the PIIGS. I'm short of euro from 1.40 with a 1.4050 stop. So i'm not risking much.
As for oil, I think the highs are not far away. I think we see 90 before 120, since I think the crisis in the middle east will temporarily subside. Libya is in a stalemate so the "shock factor" is wearing off in the markets. Also, the Saudi protests will likely be a non-event.
As for metals, I took profits at 36. Looks like there is some real resistance there. There may be more upside right now, but i'm happy with the run I had from 28-36. Actually I am looking for a dip to re-enter. Not looking for too much; 34 may be a good bet if we can get there. But who knows, maybe we see 40 before anything else happens. It has risen over 1/3 in the past month or two so it needs some rest at some point. That would actually be healthy for the silver.
As for stocks, I personally doubt the S&P can break through 1350. I myself am short from 1320 (just a purely technical trade) and i'm only looking for a small move down here before I would cover that.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi OG,
ReplyDeleteWhen Compare Euro with US dollar, it is build on different fundamental.
US dollar is one country one system so is less discipline. Euro is build on many country one system, so the system will have more discipline.
So I would not put long term on US Dollar but instead adding more long in EURO.
As my view for PIIG, they have being slashing budget and fixing their problem so the PIIG problem will eventually , there will be short term problem but the EURO should have no problem in handling the rate increase.
What i was more worry is the US treasury, i think the yield will keep shooting and the QE3 might come online sooner then expected. If i see more problem in US then Euro.
As for precious metal, it good to see you have good discipline on your target that is ow profit is earned. but for my metal holding, Due to my huge position, it is not very convenience for me to move around so much . I prefer to stick to the trend. and will start to reduce my position in the future market.
As for S&P , I will wait for a little while longer before i will going to make a major short in this market..
Hope everyone have a great trading
Predictor-
ReplyDeleteI have followed your blog for a couple of years and you are very accurate. I appreciate that you are not always a one track mind (ie always a bull or bear) but flow with the situation.
Regarding your recent post about the stock market going down I have some questions:
1. Why? Do you think QE2 is played out with most of the gains to date already figuring in the remaining $600billion in purchases?
2. How low will it go? Is this a correction or start of BEar market?
3. Will this down-turn take down mining and oil stocks with it? I've closed most of my positions but am tempted to buy as some are already down 30% from their recent highs (for instance Hecla Silver).
Thanks from Austin, Texas!!!
What are your thoughts on Japan's economy and the effect of the fallout on commodity classes. I'm looking to get back in oil and gold. An ideas? 32-33 is my silver buy zone.
ReplyDeleteHi Austin.
ReplyDeleteTechnically i am quite a bear in stock market, due to inflation. Raising price for raw material usually will not do any good to long term company performance. The Japan earth will add more pressure to hard commodities in long term. So it ishould not be a good thing for consumer.
Further more the QE2 will be ending on june, but I think it is better to start close out the long position in S&P and start to pile short on strength. anyway my reading in S&P is not accurrate so you should judge the position before put your short or long.
For QE2 which is ending on June. I think the market have almost price in all the effect for QE2, if you are play with QE2 trend, i think it is better to closing well before the QE2 end.
The world is having energy and resource problem with recent earth quake and nuclear problem. so I think we can still wait to buy at low level once the market go a serious correction.
Have a good trade austin
Hi OG,
ReplyDeleteIn regard to japan earth quake , the out come of this catastrophe should not be good due to wealth destruction in return of more debt accumlative.
The end result will high inflation with long term japan bond problem.
The world is already facing hugh inflation with japan problem it will only add more fuel to the fire.
As for gold and silver, this will be the best hedge against all the uncetainty and inflation which lie a head us.. so i am not so bearish on this two metal.
I think gold 1400 - 1410 should be good place to add position for silver in US$35 - US$36 but if actually for you add at any price for long term, just prepare liquidity for margin call an be confident on your position
agreed Preditor. I may have exited my position too soon. I think it is important to be brave and just hold onto it. I think my problem is that I use a little too much leverage in my futures trading. Even just a small bit too much leverage can be a problem, since it makes margin calls an issue and losses become magnified. As far as gold and silver, it seems that they are closely attached to movements in the crude market. If you think oil is going to 110 a barrel in the next couple of months, it can "pull" gold and silver up with it. It is like a gravitational effect. I see crude making this move on the middle east tensions alone, which are not resolved. That can mean 40 in silver..
ReplyDeleteAs far as other matters, you were so right on the euro. The dollar is being flushed down the toiled, at a steady pace, and this time no rally in the dollar. Euro up, dollar down could still be in play. This should boost other commodities.
I have a new position in copper today at 4.26. I have a target of 4.85. This appears to be a decent trade to make, since Japan will require copper for rebuilding, and there is more demand from emerging economies. Also take a look a Palladium here, as the worlds supply of cars is growing each year. It is used in carborators. Looking for entry point in this.
Hi OG.
ReplyDeleteWhen playing future it is dangerous to put too much leverage with your fund in future, liquidity is the most important issue.
Actually you minimized your investment in future by using liquidity gain from your position and to accumulate more the position and put stop with some profit, just in case squeeze,.
good trade every one
Hi everyone.
ReplyDeleteI think the gold and silver is due for correct...base on friday report. I think the dollar bull start to run over the market.
althought there is still likey and short term upward, but for the profit, i have booked all my precious metal and soyabean profit and i will wait for clearer vision before retake my position.
I only took profit from my future, while my phyical gold and silver is safe in vault and will accumlate more on weakness.
Will also start to take profit from oil next week.
For S&P while, i will wait for a while longer before i start piling my short... but i am not bull so I will pull my target up to 1370 let see how the market play out next week,
Have a good trade everyone.
It looks like the precious metals may move higher again sooner. 40 is resistance in silver, and i'm looking to get long here soon, haven't decided where but maybe around 38-38.75..
ReplyDeleteHi Mikhael,
ReplyDeleteIt seem i am a little move by the market sentiment which is rarely occured to me but anyway profit is taken gold at 1435 and silver at 38.4 ... average cost for gold position is 1320 and silver at 26.8 ... so i am quite happy. I wait for a while to enter long in precious metal, I will prefer to enter long price the market pull back or correction.
For oil , it is approaching my target, and i will start taking profit today.
For EURO, 1.45 is my target, will also start to take my EURO profit on strength.
For S&P... i don't think there much to gain from long which I will start at 1345 first 10% of my stock fund..
Good trade every one
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI close my long 30% of my oil position yestersday @ 110.20 and will start to close more on strength.
For stock s&P start to at short 10% of my fund @ 1333.00 and will start to short more on strength. Time to take my risk on the short side in the s&P future.
Silver - will this thing ever go down?? Some people are calling for higher oil too, all the way to 120 maybe.
ReplyDeleteHi Greg ,
ReplyDeleteSilver is in super bullish trend. But it will make some correction soon. The sentiment is very bullish. So it is wise to be patient for a while. But for long term play. You can take any position but just prepare the liquidity for the squeeze.
For precious metal, divide my play into two. One is speculate play via future and wealth accumulate via physical gold and silver. Whenever made profit in my investment I will use my profit to buy more metal.which this strategy have make my wealth increase at nice pact.
For oil,
Today I take another profit of 15% of my position @ 112.70. I will continue to book my profit in oil on strength. Thing are getting wild this day. So it wise to book big profit whenever you see one
Hi Og,
ReplyDeleteI have made some research on copper, although the market sentiment is bullish here but I see some serious correction. Due to inventories build world wide which should not bold well in short term with china and alot of country interest rate on the rise ..
Take care and have a good trade
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeletetoday i am closing alll my long in oil, i will add more short to the s&P another 15%
hi every 1,
ReplyDeleteI am adding more short in S&&P today...right now with more then 50% of index fund in short position.
good trade every 1
Looks like a reversal in silver today from 42 to 40. I wonder where we are headed. Some say there will be a big battle for 40. Others are saying that silver will be $50 by early May. I say that I'm confused. What are you guys buy targets (levels)? 39 looks interesting. Thanks, Greg (GB)
ReplyDeleteHi Greg ,
ReplyDeleteA new buying opportunity always during a sell off. For silver to ignite a sell signal I think we might see $ 34-36 range. But side way around 40 level till before end of the month then sell off will ignite sooner after that so should wait and see for a while until we see correction or more confident in take the position.
Manage to close all my long in oil at 112.00. What a day...
Good trade everyone
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your discussion. I think I agree in most part about the metals Preditor. My belief is that silver will soon start to move back up again, but no far before the correction gets hold. @Greg, I am looking to buy again here maybe in the area you stated. For gold 1445 I think. And I think the metals will correct along with stocks maybe in late april or early may.
Hey! I think you took profit too soon in metals. I have a target of 50 on silver. S and P 1380 into May, then a correction..
ReplyDeleteHi OG.
ReplyDeleteYeah.. bad decsision is made so have to live with that this time round..
But i am not total dissapointed in the precious metal rally as more then 60% of more net wealth is in precious metal, 40%in gold and 60% in silver so i am quite happy with the rally.
For S&P will continue to pile in the short on strenght. inflation is not good thing in economy and the there is more risk to the upside then to the downside.
Good trade everyone
End of the month is coming... I fear we might see great correction across board.. a rally ike this is not a good sign...
ReplyDeleteI am prepare to go all into the short in S&P and prepare a cash pool for any squeeze might occure
Good luck everyone.
Thomas Lee of J.P Morgan, their chief US equities strategist, feels that there will be a correction between June and September. I think we all basically agree that a downturn is around the corner, but the difference is in the timing.
ReplyDeleteHi Greg..
ReplyDeleteTiming is important, it is good that everyone is exchange idea, which let me to think deeply for past fews day and have decided to close all my short for now... with little lose ...
Sometime, when you realise you made a bad call, you have to admit and move on...
I think there is more important factor then the stock correction which is the devaluation of dollar a cross board. which this devalue will further fan inflation in asst class worldwide.
I have close 30% of my Euro long which i think wait for a while longer before exit my remaining EURO position for now.