Hi everyone,
It quite sometime now and I hope everyone is well...
As everyone know I am long term bear in Dollar and bond, bullish on precious metal gold and especially silver and emerging market.
So today i would like to come out with a topic " What will happen when dollar devalue or Fail?
This what I think in general.
in stock S&P prospective apparently we are seeing a rally but deep under the market is under correction in term of EURO. this idea is abit extreme but if take Euro back in 2007 and value in S&P back then, You will get what i mean.
So why I am close my short, I believe the dollar is in free fall for now, which is something bigger picture then stock valuation. As long as dollar keep falling the other asset will keep inflated. So it is going to be quit bullish going forward in "very" short term.
As For Gold and silver , a correction is imminent but i suspect that it will not happen soon due to skeptic in the rally like what is happening to me .. alot of people is still waiting in the sideline waiting to buy on dip while the short keep short covering... Something big is coming and it will come sooner then expected....
So i will wait for a dip first before adding to the future.
For Dollar , bond and deficit ..
I having being following the news around the world and it seem like the world keep blaming china for manipulation in the currency
Now it seem like the US is not going to be responsible for the debt and the dollar printing, they is care little for the creditor while keep pumping dollar into world economy , support unemplyment benefit, lower tax for the rich, world wide military invention and politics invention.
So now all the creditor is to be blame for the mass.. to be fair ... the US debt situation is getting out of hand and the problem will have great impact on global scale.
So phyical gold and silver will be your ultimate hedge against this uncertainty. Like i mention above the short covering rally have push the price to all time and it seem like there nothing to stop the rally.
But one thing for sure that a correction is imminent along in the rally, there is also sideline money which waiting anxiety to enter the market so might a higher price but how high the market will go before correction this is the most tricky part, i think as soon as the short have complete flash out and the dollar hit 69.5 or a bit lower then the correct will ignite. we might see a correct toward US$38-US40 but this is my opinion it might not happen.
One interesting move for the past week is the dollar index make new low but the gold and silver is pity stable so it is a bit fishy here.
I am hold back in my precious metal future investment for a while , no matter how high it go, from my experience never chase a bull or a bear market no matter how bullish or bearish you are cause you might be trap in your investment especially in future, and will cause you very misery and you will be induce to make bad decision. As bad decision is alway being make during depress mood.. so it is better to make invest when you have a clear mind.
The important of investment is to make money and stay happy, and not lose money and sad.
I will post my precious metal position once i have made my investment.
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As for oil,
After the nuclear incident in Japan, Japan have problem in keep up with the power supply, and oil is an quick fix to the situation so i think oil will find a lot of support going forward.
The oil market is very strong and it is getting strong as day go by. Coonsumption is raise at rapid in ermerging market , I think we will see oil at 120 -125 nymex soon. Should used any dip as another opportunity add position.
I think we will see another correction at 112 -113 area, so i will cross my finger and wait target correction is 103-106 area.
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As for stock,
The dollar devaluation will be supportive to the stock market for now but that does not mean we should bullish on stock. Inflation with high oil which will creating a lot problem for consumer going forward.
This cost raise will have great problem for company to raise in this unpredictable situation, so i guess the earning for a lot of company is peeking and the bull going forward should not be big move to the upside.
When the stock will correct, i think need to focus on dollar index for the clue here, i suspect the dollar index will fall to 69.5 or lower, if the situation occur, i think it is almost time to short the stock market cause there will be panick in dollar once it breach 70.8
Which the dollar index rebound we will see some serious correct a cross board so for precious metal and stock, so i will brace for this scenario to occur.
Will add most commentary later.
Have a nice day every 1
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hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI am adding short to the S&P today
Seem bearish this week..
ReplyDeleteshould interested week ...
puting more short at 1335
ReplyDeletePreditor,
ReplyDeleteOne thing that puzzles me these days is the preference of silver over gold. Since june 2006, silver is up 255% and gold is up 135%. Similary, since 2001 silver is up 1048% and gold is up 488%.
Although I do beleive that silver is the poor man's gold and perhaps JPMorgam bank is short silver, on a asset risk basis it would seem that gold is the more logical investment at this specific point in time.
Your thoughts would be appreciated. Thank You.
Silver is really getting taken down. Will you buy this dip if we move a little lower?
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised at the strength in S and P today! Gold held up, while silver still getting killed (at least this week). Predictor, your advice about not chasing the metals market and trading on margin is very good..nice timing too, as everyone who began to chase from here to 50 in silver is feeling the pain. I wait for your next move to get back in. I see that you are waiting for correction so it could be a bit. As always, any of your advice is appreciated. I am in cash and waiting right now (being cautious as well), though I did enter silver a little later than you and follow it a little higher. Sorry for the double post..
ReplyDeleteHi Bob,
ReplyDeleteSilver is both industrial used, jewerly, , hedge
I think Silver have more up thrust then gold for the next few years and which make silver a better investment for quite sometime to come.
I am looking for silver gold ratio about 10-15 : 1 which could make silver price at US$200 with gold making new time high, so i think it will be interesting going forward.
Any both silver and Gold will be good investment
Hi OG,
ReplyDeleteI think we still can wait for a while longer for a correction to take place in precious metal which i think should be fast and depress correction will look forward to add on this dip.
As for S&P,
I am not going to be a bull going forward, but playing future is all about mind and heart between two group, banker and player. So before I am going to take position, I will ask myself, am i ready to take the risk and do i have enough fund to see the banker card ... the raaly is to squeeze all the short out so... don't play bull this time, focus on timing to short the market.
For the timing, looking for the dollar index for the clue ...
cheer everyone
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteLook for Euro ... the dollar index ... I am going to close all my long target 1.52 - 1.55 and will place short on Euro/dollar ..
Cheer very one
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteI think the big boy got trap in this bull market ....
now focus on the dollar for the timing to short the market..
Don't long anything just wait
Thank you Preditor! I always look forward to your ideas. I'm all sidelines now. It feels like dot com for every assets. :) Good luck trading! Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi every1,
ReplyDeleteJust wait a while before going long in precious metal....
Thing should get interesting soon....
It seem like the dollar is rebound ... now get misled by this rebound ... I think it is a false dawn, the dollar will make it way lower..
Hi every1,
ReplyDeletethe precious metal is in bearish bomb now.... beware of the margin ...
Make sure you have enough to back your position thing will get rough from here on... prepare for the squeeze ...
bearish bomb indeed! Looks like the 30's in silver are going to happen.
ReplyDeleteGold is holding up here. I think its a buy...
ReplyDeleteHi every 1,
ReplyDeleteI have problem update the post earlier today.
I have add silver @ 39.3... and will add more from here.
now everyone have to prepare the margin squeeze, if you are not ready... please wait a while for the trend to establish.
I have prepare ratio 2:1 margin for each contract i long so it is a lot of stand by fund for the expected squeeze if there is any from here on.
There is still a chance the market will go down from here. my initial position not very big, so i am not much serious about the position if there is the dip.
For S&P, the past few day days the news really hit the bull back... but the bull will fight back... there is still alot of free money in the market.. but as i write am not a bukk frm here until,
I see worldwide interest rate is going down, food supply more secure which will lead to lower food inflation , and more QE3 which i expected will establised in the 3rd quarter..
So keeep a big on this event..
Good trade everyone
Now the raise debt cell to 2 trillion will be another event which will cause the market to rally especially in silver and gold.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI have pile more short in S&P , for gold and silver....
After the metal breach 38.00 thing will not so rosy for silver in short term.
Not sure if the big boy will to take the metal to new low level, i put my stop @ 37.5
The sentiment is quite bearish...
goodluck everyone
Hi, looks very bearish to me too. I think the big boys want to take it down more, but where is the question. In gold I think maybe 1490 or 1450. We will see how the price reacts at these levels...its hard to say. Silver could fall all the way back to the low 30s but end of the week at this pace! I think shorts are the way to go for now..Your stop was just hit right? I have 36.80 on my quote
ReplyDeleteSilver is in full bear short trend now, don't long any metal ..
ReplyDeleteyet... wait until next week
Closing my position in S n P with some gain..
ReplyDeleteI have all my position including euro..
I will be on the sideline now... maybe a short vacation..
good luck everyone
Preditor - what do you think? your thoughts have always been valuable. Do you think that gold could fall towards 1400? 1450? Its very hard to say. I was wondering what your opinion was.
ReplyDeleteHi OG,
ReplyDeleteThe silver have corrected more then 30% since it reach the peak at US$49.80 and now it is US$34.8 so before you going short further down this market it is worth your risk .... I think it is not wise thing to doing. ! thing you have to remember is the margin thing have both effect the up move and the down move which either way will cos you margin call.
I think we should be looking to buy from here, the timing is important here, so I think my target is about US$32-34 range.
For gold , the gold have corrected more then 100 dollar I think the target i am look for is about US$1400 - 1420 area shoul;d be a nice area to enter long.
Let see how the market going to play out today.
For oil , the oil have move low then my target and i am look at US$96-98 for a nice entry point should be safe.
After yestersday trading session, I believed almost all the long have being flush out and they need to flush out new long position which added yestersday so it should be a nice target to enter long.
For dollar,
the dollar rally will be short term, I will be taking the long side in EURO but i post it here once position is taken.
good luck everyone.
Hi everyone.
ReplyDeleteLet see if today silver 32 will hold on, and oil 96 , if this is breach all the above position will not be taken.
Dollar still in rally mode with gold???
ReplyDeleteI guess the dollar will rally for a while before continue it downward trend ..
something which is not seen quite sometime, and it look very fishy here..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI still feel the precious market will be in correction which I will place small short position here for speculative play.
I will not long anything for while and will focus on the short side this time.
Seem to me the stock will be on correction mode so, should be a bad idea to start pile short from here onward
Seem to me the stock will be on correction mode so, should be a bad idea to start pile short from here onward = Seem to me the stock will be on correction mode so, should not be a bad idea to start pile short from here onward
ReplyDeleteWill add more to S&P today.
ReplyDeleteAdd more short to silver small position..
Something is fishy here... let hold on to see if what i think is correct...
more short to S&P
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteI feel that the dollar is about to go on a bull run. The means commodities could get stomped on. I'm short soybeans from 1352. See the chart? They ran up so much last year from 1000 that I think they are headed back to this area by July.
Food inflation is threatening global growth and i believe the liquidity will start unwind world wide... so the sentiment is quite bearish from here.
ReplyDeleteClosing my short in silver .. and take the profit..
ReplyDeleteGreg nice call on soya bean
No problem, I think also that Wheat and Corn will go down. I shorted some Wheat last night. You are smart to cover in silver, yet I bet it goes lower eventually anyways, at least short term
ReplyDeleteHi Greg ,
ReplyDeleteMarket is not one way street. With raising margin , the banker will squeeze the long and the short so think will not be as smooth as silk in here.
Silver will make way lower in short term, technically everything is bearish. So bet on the short side for awhile from here onward
Hi Preditor, it looks like your short timing is great! Congratulations! Aseng
ReplyDelete