Hi Everyone ..
It is quite sometime since i wrote my last letter...
First i would like to said ouch!!! that hurts ... it is the first in many years that my gold and silver future got liquidated ....
I believe this will serious liquidation and the main target not only the future market and i think it will soon hit the physical market which should not bode well for gold and silver price going forward in short term about 3-4 month.
I think the gold price might hit Us$ 1300 - US$1350, before we hit the bottom for this run... and silver i think it is the same as gold but since the silver got mass liquidation twice this time, i think US22-23 shhould a nice target for long term accumulate.
Without expansion of QE3 , and worldwide inflation control target, i think we will be in short term deflationary pressure for the next quarter which , i believed there will a great sell off soon.
Don't buy anything yet, hold on to all short, thing will gettng more nasty from here on.
I think oil we will likely see US$65 - 70 which i look forward to to take the profit on my short for oil at this level.
For the gold and silver, this is the first time, i sold 60% of my phyiscal gold and silver in this rebound.. i should have seen this coming but it seem like got carry away by this rally... come to think about it, gold have a great run without any real correction, i think this time we will see a serious correction before the gold procceed with it don't look back kind of rally ....
For S&P, short on an rally, but you guy better don't get to carried away by the sell off, as i think 950 is a target which must take profit from any sell off. Now we see lot of commodities is going down in price, i think the company should have more profit due to cut reduce, mortage rate in historical low, price of commoditites decrease and dollar is raising in which should be bullish for stock in mid to long term. but in short it s be liquidation from the weak hand in regardless to the fundamental.
don't long any thing yet ..
Hope everyone have a great day and good luck in all your trade
The new high for gold
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Good to hear from you. I am going to start easing into precious metals of these levels . in fact I've bought gold at 1600, for a quick swing trade. think today gold will rebound short term, nothing moves in a straight line. we are definitely in for some wild swings. stay in touch...
ReplyDeleteHi chris good to hear from you too ..
ReplyDeleteI think this time i will be on short side of the trade for a while ...
I think if the gold do not pass 1650 by next tuesday, i think you better start take profit on your long ...
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIt being a while and hope all is well..
today i shorting oil big time around US$92.5 - 95 range.. it being a while . my target for oil to cover short is US$76 - 80 range ..
with major flood in southeast asia country which is soft commoditity production country, cause a serious demage to agriculture production for vegetable to pork and evening proccessing and industry production .. this sure put more inflation on asia economiy for time to come ... especially china and india.
So i see on interest rate reduce for china in near term . India raise interest rate today so india is abit on the cureve ... if china follow suit i thing we should see another sell off...
For QE3 to re-start , a correction need to take place ... untill new qe3 is annonuce, i will be on the short side of the trade ...
I guess on the short should be squeeze out by now so it is wise to start piling short from here onward..
great trading everyone
For gold ..
ReplyDeleteI think we should see US$1450.00 and silver at 25-26 range. the gold fundamental is just too bullish going forward.. and i don't it is a good idea to go long when so much people is on the bullish side ..
I will wait a while before taking position .. patient will always win.
I guess just have to cross my finger and wait ...
Hi Preditor, so good to hear from you. I'm still holding on my short Nasdaq. It is so strong! Good luck. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, what level do you see SnP going to by year end? Do you see USD going up? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi aseng,
ReplyDeleteFrom the speculation point view , s&p is moving up too fast and in short period if time , although is look strong but I don't think it is lasting and the strength will soon faded. Gobble liquidity is contracting so it is not is bull market.
With raising of oil price and soft commodity is on the uptrend, the inflation risk is still hanging on Asia economy which inflation will result in mop up more liquidity from the economy . So I don't think the Chinese will relax their interest rate any time soon. For eurozone economy , I guess we might see credit crunch , which I'd this appear should not bode well for gold in short
Got it. Thank you Preditor. News these days is confusing. I don't know what to make of with 50% hair cut. Will banks need to dilute shares? Therefore, their shares taking hit? Aseng
ReplyDeleteyeah trading is tough nowadays..
ReplyDeletea movement of 2-3% percent per day either direction...
Well 50% hair cut mean lose in balance sheet and 1.4 trillion standby fund to prevent short term credit sized up .. either way the euro bank will need more cash to shore up their requirement and sell some asset this should pull some liquidity out of the market.. this should have some effect on market which we should see some action by tomorrow Friday..
it close to end of the month, i bet there will be lot of liqudation by next week include gold and silver, oil stock so i will be comfortable to stay on the short after a huge rally..
Get ready for the buggy jump ...
ReplyDeleteGuess today and tomorrow will be bear killer day after that we will start to bull killer day... seat on tight .... put up your brave cloth ...
great trader everyone
Going to start place my short on S&P today ..
ReplyDelete1270-1275 range
Hi Preditor, I am still holding on to my short Nasdaq. I looked away from my screen. LOL! That was good short to start at 1275. Good luck! AAII shows bullish sentiment quiet hight. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
ReplyDeleteAseng
Hi aseng,
ReplyDeleteI add lot of short today even go long dollar..
It is quite sometime and I trust my instinct more then market sentiment. Let hope for the best next week
Good Luck to you too aseng
Yeah Preditor, thank for sharing your trading thoughts with me. I feel great that you are helping me out. I feel stocks are very over extended too. I wish you the best of luck and strong heart. You are truly contrarian. That's why I respect your thoughts very much. Good luck. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeletei want to talk about gold and silver... it look like the gold and silver is going to take off however i think we will see at least another correction or two before we find a bottom for this run..
let take a look at silver we have a run to US$50.00 then we correct to US$30.00 then silver climb back to US$43.00 then another serious correction bring the price to about US$29.00.
We only see the first wave of correction in this 3 year with 170% again old bull market.. i suspect we will see another 2 correction in gold and another correction in silver before we hit bottom...
but that does not mean to short the market, this is a bull market , should buy on dip.
HI Pred good to hear from you again..
ReplyDeleteAre you still willing to short this market (S&P)? I`m seeing it pretty strong now, unless till year end. After this upside I unlodaded between thursday and friday, and I`m almost on the sidelines and on the long side, but willing to buy on any dip. On gold and silver I`m also bullish in the short term.
Thank`s for your comments..
Hi Andrea,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you too...
The market is changing very fast same as for the trading strategy need tO adjust as soon as thing change .
My play is base on liquidity, from what I see is the liquidity is contracting. Although euro crisis create short term relief and I think the market will find problem news to bring the stock market down. The world is full of problem.
The reason the s&p rally is pretty is due to huge bearish bet in stock and euro which result in major short squeeze. So the bet have being squeeze out and their is no much blood left on the bear and I think there is more blood to squeeze from the bull from here onward.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I see the qe3 might be delay from the data out during the pass week. And some as for hope the Chinese will reduce interest rate by year end but serious don't think so. So there should be a little bit of credit expansion from Chinese side. So I think we will see another correction. My bet now is on the short side. And I looking to hold the short position until end of next week
ReplyDeleteTake some profit 30 percent in all my short position looking to tAke profit on the way down
ReplyDeleteThank you Preditor. That was great move. Thanks for sharing your insight. How low would you think SnP going? Certainly not 1100 righ? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, what's your take on Fed's announcement? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi aseng ,
ReplyDeleteThe fed is laying ground for any future qe3 but not today as expected. So no extra liquidity inject to the market.
With Greece unexpected change, I expect the market to turn sour in the next 2-3 week so all bet will be on the short side for now.
A bull is run by low interest rate and excess liquidity. Without either one the bull have little room to the upside
Thanks Preditor. Market is so strong today. AAII is showing sentiment at elevated level 40 even after Monday/Tuesday decline: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
ReplyDeleteTime for SnP to go down soon? Good luck trading. Aseng
Hi Preditor, hope you are doing well. Would you still recommend holding on to short? Market is unstopable! Even with Italy and Greece mess. What is your thought? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteDon't short the us stock market, if anything you should be buying the dips. Hope that helps, good luck!
ReplyDeleteHey Chris, thanks for your advise. You made a good call. What a day. My short got stopped. I'll hang on for now. I still feel that the market is too hot. Maybe now is the time to roll over, after I covered. LOL! Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, what is your view on the market? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, how are you? I hope you are doing well. :) What's your take on silver? Aseng
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to this blog?
ReplyDeleteHi Chris, good to hear from you. Everyone on break from trading? I am checking here for ideas too. Chris, what do you think will happen this Friday? Stocks rally to year end? Aseng
ReplyDeletecrude oil is in a setup trade for a short, I shorted it early Monday
ReplyDeleteTrade is looking good, still money to make. Nothin is free so bounce me back something worthy.
Yea index will flatten out here, I think it would be safer to stay on sideline. Or maybe get into long position on euro, it technically looks looks like a good trade, cot report indicates smart money is betting this way. Let me know what your plan is. Hopefully we can stir up some intellectual debate here
ReplyDeleteHi Chris, good to hear from you. I am betting that SnP will rise to the moon. I think we're going to break out of resistance. I'm accumulating GE for dividends, and keep it forever. LOL. I will look to add oil stocks too like TOT and CVX. Aseng
ReplyDeletenice to have someone to listen, I'm short crude oil ,etf SCO @ 37, man I think markets will get tough after the first, I just think we will go sideways or possibly take another dip, market sentiment is starting to get positive so be careful. Euro is looking good since the end of the world did not happen, now the attention is on US, in 20 days or so they will be forced to make huge cuts or startup QE3, either way this is not good for dollar, look for dollar index to go lower from here.
ReplyDeleteThank you Chris. I hope market go down too. I want to buy on dip. LOL. Your advise a while ago to buy the dip is great! I have been accumulating JPM and other high yield stocks such as GE and TOT. I have been sleeping easy at nights. Good strategy. Thanks Chris.
ReplyDeleteAre you short oil to hedge your bearish USD stance?
Aseng
Hi Chris, congratulations on you short oil. You made a brilliant call on the dip. I was expecting Santa rally. I got some GE today, and ABB.
ReplyDeleteWhat did you see that would cause this dip? Good call. Aseng
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteChris and Aseng,
One thing to take note is that, the market is trying to get trader get used to bad economy news coming out of USA.
Eventually the problem will come back to haunt the country at worse rate.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteQE3 will have lesser effect then QE1 and QE2, so i don't expect much rally for QE3.
The monetary base for world economy is getting bigger and so we will need more and more flat currency to reflate.
The euro have problem in reflate their currency so the another source of world funding is in trouble... which will result in liquidity squeeze or shortage, this is deflationary.
QE=3 will have much effect on commoditiy then stock
ReplyDeleteAseng, to answer your question, would require me to be at my desk, right now I'm sending from phone...it had to do with crude oil close two fridays ago.
ReplyDeleteOh and I plan on buying this dip, I believe US markets will rally soon thru December, I think we Might have another down day, so im rolling the dice hoping I haven't waited to long....I will close out etf tommorrow if my position gets close to Target of 41
ReplyDeleteHello preditor, good to hear from you. Good analysis on geopolitical scene, enough to keep me coming back! Try to update more often if you can, I always wonder if you've abandoned us.
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to see you back, what keep mee from posting is that everyone start to ask me what is my take, which i actually would like to see everyone input in this and so we could learn together.
Check this out : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-13/fed-seen-revising-zero-rate-pledge-as-need-for-bond-purchases-diminishes.html...
Look like The big boy is going to hammer gold and silver big time ... crossing my hand to retake my silver and gold position... possible targe US$1450 - 1500 cross finger and waiting
in order for me to take my position in long, at least three thing must happen here.
ReplyDelete1) China reduce interest and boost stimulus to the economy
2) Fed Resume QE
3) India reduce interest by at least 0.75%
4) ECB aggressively in the bond market.
if either 4 factor did not occured , bull is just a speculation play
Bull on stock index?? I was just referring to the traditional December rallys we get nearly every year. I agree market fundemental stink, I am playing trend
ReplyDeleteHi Chris ,
ReplyDeleteI guess it is window dressing toward end of the year
Cheer
preditor, Great call on gold......what now?? I'm sitting on cash, I afraid to jump into a trade, not sure if the drop is done, where are you going to get back into gold on the long side....?
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI think we still have time to wait, during this short term deflationary, it better to keep cash and play short
I think gold and silver might still going down more I might start to accumulate when gold start to touch 1500 area let see how the market play out
Hi Preditor and Chris. Good to hear from you. I am accumulating INTC, JPM, GE, and some other dividend playing stocks. This is good time. Good call. I think these big companies can continue paying dividend while the rest of the world is slowly moving on. Happy Holiday. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteClosing toward the end of the month, i think it wise to close profit position.
Close 40% of my long in dollar
I am going for a short term, going long oil and and going long in S&P as i suspect that there will be short squeeze ..
cheer everyone
For europe people,
ReplyDeleteClose all short in Dax or Europe exchange .. and prepare to go long..
Beware of short squeeze ... or put tight stop to your short
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteDo you think that gold is still in a bull market long term?
Thanks.
Bob G
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteGood to heard from you ,
Yes gold is still on the bull market but right now it is technical bearish...
Wait for more , look at the dollar index for the clue to go long and I believe the dollar will still be in very short term bull and I mean very short.
I am going to close all my if the dollar index break 82 and above
Happy New Year Preditor, Chris, and Everyone! I wish you the best of luck with trading.
ReplyDeleteI'll start with my outlook for this year. I think US real estate should bottom. I think economy is recovering gradually. I'm bullish with SnP. I am holding good dividend stocks. New Year trading in Asia and Europe got off to good start. Happy Trading. Aseng
Happy New year! I'm short the snp index. I'm expecting a substantial drop soon. It just seems like their cooking the numbers at this point. I'm prepared to hold my position until the eotw ; ) good luck and good trading everyone!
ReplyDeleteThank you Chris. Your insight is always amazing. I'm very bullish for this year. I'll do some cover call on my stocks for income. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone, I hope you are trading well in New Year. I took some good profit from 30% of my stocks holding. Another 30% on cover call. I think SnP at this level is due for some pullback. I also see in Barrons that it thinks the same. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, Chris. Are you still checking in? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi aseng,
ReplyDeleteI have being traveling Alot guess sometime need to get myself away from the monitor and enjoying so real life...
I guess the market The market is due for some rest.. Too much good new to support stock going for forward,
I bet the German will keep pressurring PIIGS to weaken the euro which play well for euro economy
I think I will start pilling my short in this rally targeting 13
1330 and will start pilling more on the upward momentum..
ReplyDeleteWith good china manufacture ring report and pressure from Germany toward PIIGS to weaken euro. I think the government see lesser need to support the market for the time being...
As for oil, close all my long and going to short the market, for gold I think I see some correction ,
Hope everyone have a great trade
Today add lot of short let see what will unfold next week cheer everyone
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, nice to hear from you. Where did you travel? These few weeks I did really well with my longs. I sold most of my stocks yesterday such as INTC, MSFT, and BAC today. I earned some 20% plus since November. I was very pleased. I'm have small position in short silver that I got in a few weeks ago thinking end of the world. I think silver can go back to $29 I hope. LOL! Thank you for sharing your thoughts. As always, I check your site daily looking for ideas. Please keep pumping your thoughts. Good luck. Aseng.
ReplyDeleteHi aseng
ReplyDeleteCongrat on your long nice call.
Let hope for another profitable trade the next trading
Cheer
I like traveling to Asia china India , Burma, Thailand ,Indonesia Singapore Malaysia it is quite a trip and fun to get the real grip of the situation
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, I am from city of Medan in Indonesia. Where do you normally visit in Indonesia? Here is interesting link from expert that I like to follow. His name is Tom Demark. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/demark-says-s-p-500-may-reach-1-342-by-next-week-before-falling.html
ReplyDeleteAseng
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteYen is greatly overvalue now ... it is should be play on the selling yen side ...
checkout http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/japan-inc-suppliers-bleed-jobs-as-yen-batters-tv-chip-profits.html
Oh really,
ReplyDeletewell maybe we could meet up some day :) I thought you from canada
--------
Preditor, I'm now living in Canada. I was born in Indonesia. I still visit once in a few years. Family is in Pekanbaru now. You are in Singapore right?
ReplyDeleteGood call on gold. I hope this is a tuning point. I am thinking SnP has leg up. Aseng
Hi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteThe data might look good but i will keep to the short side for now and i will continue to accumulate short in S&P from here...
I think the price from have already priced all the good news..
Preditor, here is interesting Chinese article about global economy. It seems Ben co wants to prop up stock markets. It is hard to go against the fed. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-world-flying-blind-2012-02-08?pagenumber=1
ReplyDeleteI'm 40% cash and patiently sideline. I think we may rally for a while. Good luck. Aseng
Hi aseng,
ReplyDeleteNice article, the rally force force is reinforce with currency devalue which diminishing the purchasing power the end result.
Chinese is more careful with fed tactic this time I think a lot of economy is on guard with inflationary force a gaining momentum. So I still doubt the power of this rally.
Anyway there need to have to side of force a bull and a bear.
My play is to slowly taking the short while the market beginning to turn bullish,
Any way my tactic for short in this bullish market is to short when rally buy back during the dip to short from higher ground and not hold for a long bet, this way you still have profit even during a rally
Preditor, nice to hear from you. Thanks for sharing your tactic. As for me, I'm still sitting on 40% cash, and sold some cover call for my profitable oil company TOT. I think oil is good. Once we use it, it is not coming back. I think China will increase oil demand eventually. Other than that, I am looking to buy shares again if SnP drops below 1300. So, the news about Greece is one day we're ok, the next day we're not. LOL! They are making up the news everday. Aseng
ReplyDeletePreditor, did you see Alibaba up 42% this evening? I think SnP is still uptrend strong. Hard to fight the bull these days. Are you still shorting? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteI think this uptrend will come to soon ... the best to start build up short position is when market is become bullish and long when market become bearish ..
I going to build massive short from here...
A correction is needed for a healthy market..
cheer ..
Thank you Preditor. Today's downturn is encouraging. Analysts have been busy downgrading companies. Earnings have been weak too. At the same time, I don't like the way governments worldwide is doing QE again. I want to long silver. Since you are building shorts, would you anticipate silver coming down as well? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng ,
ReplyDeleteThe downward is encouraging , however playing with future is not straight cause lot of money is involved.
Let see how the market play out
For silver ,
ReplyDeleteThere should be some correction soon.
Be patient.
Cheer
Thank you for sharing your thoughts Preditor. Check out this video interview with my favorite guest speaker Tom DeMark: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/86842200
ReplyDeleteGood luck trading. Aseng
Hey Preditor, your call is looking good. I hope you are having a good trade. I didn't buy silver, thanks to you. I'm still sideline. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Aseng
ReplyDelete