Hi everyone ,
Hope everyone is well... it is quite time ...
This year i would like to start with theme"if Alien earth what would they take, gold or dollar?" I guess you guy knew the answer.
--- News Flash -----
There is a report that the alien is planning a massive invasion in europe and usa with their most advance technology and weapon for our gold . . .
------------------------
Anyway ... we are all caught by surprising strong job report and europe business confident strength which after a deep though and thinking , and then realised what do i missing to mistake calcalate about the rally...
Early last year Japan face tsunami which wipe out production base for lot of product, as the result of this , the manufacturing is moving to uneffect country like usa or europe, hundred of thousand worker immediatelt out of job in japan, i suspect this job is moving back to usa and europe, and finally flood in thailand which paralysis major manufacturing in thailand estimate 300 -400 thousand people out of job, these job is move out of thailand to find temperary place in europe and USA ..
so we see a unique situatyion where the strength in dollar does not effect the manufacturing job in USA or europe... so what the catch here.
From what i last check both Japan and Thailand which was effect by the natural diaster is gearing for a come back.
Like japan, with the yen and manufacturing is gearing up for the recovering and same for Thailand which I think the job data in USA for time to should get a bit weaker then anticipated
With Europe debt is far from over and china still refrain from huge stimulus for economy. I bet the best part is over.
Al thought I still make lose in my s&p short and I still gear more fund to massive short the s&p from here , this is one of the huge investment position I ever accumulate .
I add more comment later on cheer everyone
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From today action I guess everything is set for a massive correction
ReplyDeleteGood lck and trading everyone
Please take note of the post , the actually date of the post complete is 14 march , I try to create this post since January but lost appetite to continue but just review the detail and update the post
ReplyDeletePreditor, good to hear from you. I'm somewhat confused by the strength in markets. I am 50% long oil stocks and mutual funds. I also hedge with 5% short via HDGE. I'm looking to see markets unfold. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteWith market is turning to bullish,
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the most frustration short but it is not the first time which i encounter this situation..
So let how far the market planning for this rally...
Please note that have huge fund to cover my margin so, i quite squeeze resistence.
For oil i think we are in correction too...With oil hovering US$100 for too long, i think the oil exploreation and new oil production is coming on line with shale oil and gas coming online in the near future i will not be sureprise to see oil correct to US$80 - 70 in the distance future.
With new technology and drilling technical, i guess the peak oil will be delay by a few years.
anyway, this is just my thought ..
Hope you guy have a great trading ...
A thought of gold , i expect the euro debt crisis to continues and the next problem look like protugal, spain and italy which will hard ball for market to swallow ... imagine what greece have done to the market, so i expect the next ball will be more powerful for market to stick on ...
ReplyDeletecheer everyone
pls hold your gun in gold ...
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling this time the gold will be in massive liquidation with the dollar gaining 80 above, it does not look well for gold ..
Cheer everyone .
Shoot! Did not bother to look at the trading screen. I just fill the fund to my account and let my money work out....
ReplyDeleteJust 2-3 more day, I think I will not look at the trading screen . Holding the maximum short for now,
Hope you guy are having a great day
Cheer
I agree. I think market should take a breather next week. I'm keeping my 10% position in HDGE. The rest are in dividend stocks and cash. I still think US recovery is for real. I'm bullish on oil stocks for long term. Good luck trading Preditor. Aseng
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi aseng,
ReplyDeleteAs long as economy growth base on government deficit , I think the foundation of the growth will not be sustain, look at the budget deflict even with oil import down... it is not a good sight for long term growth, for short term, economy need to replace new item from time to time new innovation come out .. but eventually inflation will eat our economy ...
Hey guys, I've noticed a lot of money has exited the bond market, any suggestions on where investors will be positioned in the near future? Im also heavy on short position, I started shorting s n p back at 1300 with etf. So I'm really hoping things slide back. Who knows? I read that m3 money supply has increased significantly and that the fed reserve has been adding equities to its balance sheet. I find this strange because they claim no more qe. So fed will support market no matter what? Sounds like inflation to me....let me know what you guys think.
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeleteNice to hear to hear from you ...
I think investor think the stock situation is looking good and so the investor pulling fund out of bond to stock which is weird when you we see the dollar strength ...
Anyway, actually i expect a better job report but it is not as good as i expected ...
the big boy seem to manage to lure bond holder into stock which i expect the evropean debt crsis start to play out again in the very near future..
anyway let see how market is mving next week ..
Every market is always have two side of trade, anything which go up in straight line then you got to becareful... recall gold when it went from 1500 - 1900 without any correction
cheer
The dangerous stock : Apple stock...
ReplyDeleteIf any of you is holding , it is time to cash out your profit.
And I think it is not a bad to short this stock, when the market crash scenario occur this will one of the to crash harder then other
Hi Chris and Preditor,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that markes are very overbought. Perhaps Euro will bring out the strength in USD. On the other hand, I have learned good costly lesson to keep my short position minimal. I am going to keep my 10% HDGE position until next Friday. Over the weekend, I read a good trading book that bulls run longer than bears. Keep loss minimal. Let winner run. Good luck Everyone. Aseng
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ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteThe reason why bull market always run longer, base on my experience, it is because people fear of losing money more then earning money...
Most people enjoy watching the profit grow but does not like to take profit. But human will not hesitate to stop his loses when he is making loses.
Cheer
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng ,
ReplyDeletea thought of oil...i think if oil is heading up which look like is it going to, then i think short stock should be a great idea, but if oil is going down from here then going long stock will make sense.
cheer ..
Markets go down a lot faster than they go up....that being said I would be careful if I were long, it is not healthy for bull market to move up as rapidly as this one has, I think we are in for nasty quick correction.
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI too looking forward nasty quick correction to get out of all short position...
Hope you guy a great day
Yes, it will be a great relief to get rid of mine also. Are you trading snp minis or full?
ReplyDeleteGlad your posting again, I've been busy with the construction of my new home. If I see a good trade ill try to give you guys a heads up...
Aseng, good to see you on here. You played this one perfectly..I wish I'd stuck with my position back in December. I should of weighed in election year more heavily.....
Good luck my friends
Now let's make some money!
Hi Preditor and Chris, thank you. Chris, I took your advice to heart when you suggested to buy on dip. It has been the best strategy ever. I would like to see correction too so I can exit my shorts. I notice that while SnP rose 5% since a month ago, HDGE only declined less than 4%. Typically HDGE moves 2x inverse of SnP. I feel that stocks outside Apple and bank industries are not as hot as they appear to be. Time to look away from the screen. Give time for our investments to do their work. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeletePreditor, Indonesia is going to authorize gasoline price hike on April 1st. Typically this leads to riot. Did you know about this. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteYes.. same as for india something which need to follow closely ...
China is also increase fuel
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/china-to-increase-fuel-prices-second-time-in-two-months.html
I think the catalyst for correction is starting to build up so ...
I will not logbook at the trading screen for a time being ...
Like i say if gasoline price is going up from here, i feel there is little room up to buy stock from here..
But if we see great correction in oil, then a dip is a buy in stock...
this time indicator to buy stock if the oil price dip below US$90.00
cheer
Phew... that was a relief. Let's see how far we can correct. Cheers. Aseng
ReplyDeleteOil stocks are weak even with high oil prices. I think correction is coming. I bought some more HDGE. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteLoOk like we are in some nasty correction....
I will start booking once 1300 is breache
I think financials are going to go down a bit too. Time for AAPL to correct soon too. But enough HDGE for me. I'll hold my portion steady for a bit longer. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone, I hope you are doing well. Now analysts are busy downgrading the financials. Today's decline is encouraging. I'm still keeping 20% of my holding in short via HDGE. US rise is weaker than I would like to trigger more slide. Oil stocks are priced like oil is $97 LOL. Aseng
ReplyDeleteI'm still holding tight to my shorts, maybe today will be the day...let's see what happens
ReplyDeleteHi Chris and Aseng,
ReplyDeleteHope my patient will start to bear fruit ...
patient is the key cheer
Hi Preditor, nice to hear from you. Thanks for your update! I'm still holding on to my short fund HDGE. It is quiet small, only 20% of my holdings. I keep it small so I can hang on to it for a long time. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteWell i guess,
ReplyDeleteFinally the day have arrived , it time to start booking my profit on short ...
closing 30% of my short and will start to close more on weakness
i am closing more short,
ReplyDeleteAfter a few days of selling, i think it is better to close more short with only 30% of short left
Cheer everyone
Yeah, I closed out mine also. Not sure if the long wait accompanied with lots of stress was worth it though. I'm hoping to find a better trade next time.
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteGood to see you made a good trade. It looks like Greece will be out of the Euro/EU soon. What do you think?
I feel like you, looks like nothing has gotten better.
Any thoughts about gold? Maybe USD 1440~1450 spot? Are you interested in taking a position?
Cheers,
Bob
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteIn = to a drag in euro but in liability to euro zone
Out = long term stability to euro zone
But if Greek choose to opt out of euro Greek will be in serious trouble I doubt the Greek politician k will choose
Hi Bob,
ReplyDeletenot sure if Greek will be out of euro as the Germany bank is at risk, unlike bank in Spain and Italy and France which Germany have little stake..
As long as there is a chance of liquidty squeeze , which i think we will see in short term, gold have a chance to correct more..
Anyway till QE3 active, and china stimulus thing is need to closely follow.
I am look at dollar index againing strongly the strength of dollar is the hint to QE3 the strong it go there is a great the QE3 will occur so watch this closely, and i am prepare to short Dollar and treasury soon ...
For gold i think US$1,420 - US$1,480 should be good place to start taking position. Slow a cuumulate.
===========
Generally, there is too much force interventing rhe market which create a hostility environment to take position.. so be prepare for the suqeeze and neccessary fund to back you up. or put a tight stop to your position for safe play... not confident in the position you take stop your lose and wait until you are confident in your position you are taking. The market is very cruel nowsaday..
Cheer
Competely out of my short..
ReplyDeleteJust like lifting mountain out of my shoulder with rewarding, this is one of the big position i ever take and i think after months of torent the reward finally cashing in, i think i prepare to vacation again.
i think to closely watch.
Prepare to Long position:
Oil,
Nat gas
Commodity
Gold
silver
Stock
Prepare to short
US tresury
Dollar
Cheer
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the good thoughts. I think your plan looks good.
I think that the US treasurys are very manipluated and possibly gold also. But it seems to make no sence for anybody except the FED to buy 10yr Treasures at 1.76%. In the long run US treasuries maybe in big trouble. I will cross my fingers and buy gold.
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteWell gold is not behaving well, orginally I was thinking 1440~1450 USD spot would be a entry point. But now I wonder if 1300~1350 USD spot is more realistic? What do you think?
Thanks
Bob G.
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteThis is year i think is time for gold to rest due to hyper bull market for the pass 10 years...
it is not bad thing for bull in gold to make some rest.. (currently hold no gold position)
There is a few thing which cause my concern on the price of gold, since Greece, Spain and italy is in need of liquidity , i there is likely chance which these might have to exchange their gold for short term fund, if this the case well i guess, the Gold might have to go lower at US$1400.00 what worry is the credit market siezed up ...if these should occur then dollar will be the king, cause dollar is the world funding machine...
thing is getting interesting ..
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree. Things are not good with the world economy. We may understand more at next weeks FOMC meeting, if there is no talk about more QE liquidity then gold could go below the ~1500 USD (spot) level. I am not long gold, but I won't short it either, even though that maybe a good trade. I think the central bank actions will be important for the mood of the market. So far all the central banks are talking but not adding liquidity to the market. But I do think at some point everyone will consider both paper money and the banking system as no good, so gold will be the only place to keep money.
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi every one ,
ReplyDeleteToday I will add oil to my position target 82-84
Cheer every one
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYes, on the last short squeeze in gold I took a small short position at 1630 USD (spot). Also I have a small long position on USD at DXY=82.25 using uup.
Things in the world economy look very bad, spain is next to go, if germany will keep spending money and making promises will europe not collapse, yet. Now france no longer says anything!
How do you see gold, the dollar, and everything else?
Cheers
Bob G
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteTesting testing....
Look like a risk on today...
Long some s&po future for short term play today
this is all about future derivative,
ReplyDeleteI think the market could correct due to too many people is still on the side line and the many small trade are skeptic about the rally..
it is not longer fundament play...
My play is going long for short term until all the bear is kill from then the bull...
Go long two day ...
This is gobal play look at asia... the euro and US need to rally for asia tomorrow...
and Asia market will extend gain to support so the europe and US can exit their long position ...
this is all about future derivative,
ReplyDeleteI think the market could not correct due to too many people is still on the side line and the many small trade are skeptic about the rally..
it is not longer fundamental play...
My play is going long for short term until all the bear is kill from then the bull...
Go long two day ...
This is gobal play look at asia... the europe and US need to rally for asia tomorrow...
and Asia market will extend gain to support so the europe and US can exit their long position ...
This is worldwide coordinated especially in derivative market..
ReplyDeleteit is quite complicate and i have being comparing the trade, it seem like it is linked ...
if one legion fall hard and two other regional to maintain rally moment.
Becareful, try to loo hard and compare the trade...
especially market where derivative is concentrated.... I find that thailand set50 index is the most manipulate, you check out if the market want to rally or not.