Hi Guy,
With all the QE and stimulus going worldwide.. where is the excess fund go?
Oil did not doing as well as it should, should it be quite bullish for oil with middle east problem hmm...!!! but oild still continuously in correcting mode , do not be surprise if it correct more to about 80... stay tune.
It seem like the gold is getting stall big time... it is a bullish or bearish.
after analyst the situation it seem like the gold might need to rest another years.
there will be argument on this from the bull side. Gold it good when there is a system risk in US dollar but it seem like the crisis will be further delay.
Oil production is rising and oil and gas in US soil is adding value to the US dollar. which I see the strength of the dollar going forward.
This situation does not bode well for gold holder for a while to come.
Althought there is alot of liquidaity pump ito the market but people right be is more focus of tracking trade stock like future and EFT.
Which is not link to the individual stock or commodity it is just a follow trade . (i am referring to majority future and eft worldwide not only in USA)
Come to think carefully unlike in the past where excess liquidity have limited place to invest right now we have lot of investment vechicle to absorb the excess liquditiy.
The reboom of US housing market, will be another strong force behind the foreseenable future . which the cycle is already start to spin.
US economy is looking good going forward. so i see lower risk in holding us asset.
==============
Trading outlook.
Oil short on strength
Gold short on strength
Stock should be in correction mode but it seem like there is still alot of bear who waiting to take advantage of the correct but Stay on short side of the trade is better ...
it will be a frustration bear market, so drink lot of kool aid and sleeping pill if you want to enter the short... be confident in the trade before take one, and waiting until the situation change into your favour.
Patient is the key to future and derivative success.
Cheer Guy
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Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteThis bull look very tired .... time to short ???
Put some short today
ReplyDeleteThe bull look tired to me and I think the rally need some rest ...
Chear
Good to hear from you again Pred..!!
ReplyDeletehi andres ...
ReplyDeleteWow ... i thought i was a lone wolf here ...
Good to hear from you.
let see how the trade going out next week ...
Position get set and waiting the sitution to change to my flavoure.
Hi guy,
ReplyDeleteHmmm.... What you guy think the trade would be like tomorrow.
Hi guy ,
ReplyDeleteSeat tight and enjoy the coaster ride...
all short get set...
hope you guy good luck in your trade.
Hi Preditor, happy to hear you back. I think markets are oversold. I'm holding on to my dividend stocks. I'm willing to go down for the ride thinking US stocks are good for long run. I hope we are closer to the bottom now. How low would you think SnP go down? Oil to $80? Good to short gold now? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi aseng ,
ReplyDeleteIt beng long time..
For stock hmm... I think we need to have serious correction before heading higher ground as this bull look tired and need to rest while the bear have being raid for quite a while...
Dividend stock look good for long term , but I think it is better to slow accumulate at lower ground.
For the S&p index, I think the market need to tigger panick selling be fore. Rise so I think patient is the key
My model for plaing dividend stock is the base on P/E ratio.
ReplyDeleteIf the stock is more then 18 xx it is over brought no good to buy fro there.
For forward P/E should not be more 12x ...
anything more then this. it is not good for long term.
Oil there is lot of downside potential, but with excceess liquid in the market, fundamental meaning nothing for short term trade, cause future is all about paper trade.
cheer guy
Thanks Preditor. CSCO, INTC, MSFT all yielding 3%. China is still growing eventhough slow. Same with US. I'm in for the long term. I'm all in now. I have CSCO, JPM, BAC, HAL. Oil is still too weak today eventhough markets are rallying. You are right about oil. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteThomas Jefferson quote: " I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
ReplyDeleteThomas Jefferson quote :"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
ReplyDeleteThomas Jefferson quote: "Never spend your money before you have earned it.
ReplyDelete“If the American people ever allow private banks to control issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
ReplyDelete—Thomas Jefferson in the debate over his opposition to the Re-charter of the Private Bank Bill (1809).
“The Federal Reserve banks are one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever seen. There is not a man within the sound of my voice who does not know that this nation is run by the International Bankers.”
ReplyDelete—Congressman Louis T. McFadden (Rep. Pa)
Hi Preditor, very good points. Thanks for sharing. In my view, the world has always been controlled by the super power view. It will continue so. We need to live with the wind. Go with the least resistance. Back to stocks. Some of my holdings got tripped on sell stop on Friday. I reduced JPM, BAC, and HAL. Happy investing. Good luck. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, how are you? Congratulations on your short. My longs are under the water now. How low do you think SnP can go? 1100? Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteI am closing all my short today ... wait and see
..
With all the future trading it is getting harder and harder to time the market ...
I think the market need to correct first before they can rally to the next level ..which i think
1250 - 1300 is first possible target and see how market behave.
Base on current situation
Hi guy ,
ReplyDeleteGoing to place some long for speculation play in s& p today ..
Cheer guy
Adding more long...
ReplyDeleteAsia need a rally ...
Cheer guy
Hi Preditor, good to hear from you. Your timing is so good. CSCO great result tonight will hopefully give markets the bounce tomorrow. This fiscal fear and Euro is really good story to drive down the markets. It's good for guys like you to scoop up bargain. I rode the ride all the way down :) ha..ha.. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteJudging from the action and Asia market opening .
ReplyDeleteShort dollar .....
Don't forget to accumulate short yen in the strength.
Yen will be once of the massive play and the end the true fundamental prevail.
Today action is quite bearish...
ReplyDeleteThe bearish = buy more
Bullish = sell more
If today there is more correction I will add more and wait for bounce .
Today the market is selling hard... it is a fast and i think the market might be about to bottoming.
ReplyDeleteI think it is because of the future trading activity .... which result in this type of sell off.
Any way after have great profit from my big position is short in S&P and oil ..
Right i also have a great short in Yen ..
I have quite ammunition play with the squeeze.
If today trading there another big wave in selling, I will start accumulate more long in S&P at 1345 downward ... future trading is all about heart and mind ..
Wait for rebound with profit to close out the position
There will more massive liquidity into the market ..
So the policy maker are clear in the direction so we should be in their direction ...
Hope you guy be prepared for the worse. Never over leverage your position ... cause will create unwelcome situation and you will be discourage by the position.
I usually have about 3x fund extra to cover my each position ...
Cheer guy ...
Ride with the rebound ...
ReplyDeletehope you guy have accumulate some long during the sell off ..
possible target is 1270 - 1285.
for the safe side , also put stop to your position.
ReplyDeleteI mean 1270 - 1285. = 1370 - 1385
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYour spx trade is very interesting. I think you will do good. Like you say see a profit, grab it :)
I have started to buy physical gold a tiny bit at a time. I think you are right, both silver and gold are being manipulated by the bullion banks. But I would like to have some physical as a hedge.
Good trading.
Bob G
interesting article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-17/kyle-bass-falacies-such-mmt-are-leading-sheep-slaughter-and-we-believe-war-inevitabl
Closing 75% of the long positon of S&P with position and preparing to add short on strength.
ReplyDelete25% long i will put stop profit if the market suddenly turn, let c how market turn out.
Take note that , when i close my long position, does not mean the market will turn bear, i just book my profit.
base on today action, i bet asia market need US market bail out.
The market is moving too strong ... it is just to squeeze weak hand out of the market with lose.
I still keep 25% long position, i might miss the second part of the rally, but for the safe side . i would rather book then to wait for unforeseenable future .
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteGood timing = Good trade.
Bob G
take a look at msci emerging market look interesting..
ReplyDeletetake a look at the dollar index..
I think MSCI emerging market looking good base on dollar at current level..
If dollar start to correct at this level... then stock will look good .
it is a good buy for "long term " play...
start accumulate on weakness
look like
yes, MSCI EM looks like it maybe in a bull pennant, getting close to the point of the pennant.
ReplyDeletegood trading
Hi guy..
ReplyDeleteI think the S&P will run to 1300 area ..
Looking to close out the remaining position at those level and change position to short ..
Cross my finger and waiting.
I mean 1300 = 1400
ReplyDeleteHi guy,
ReplyDeleteThe market look like going to squeeze the short,
Close all short for the time.
Go long for the time.
For the yen and Nikkei.
Yen look might start to rebound anytime.
Reduce position short in yen and prepare to go short Nikkei index.
Short dollar......
ReplyDeleteCheer guy
Hi Preditor, agree with you on market call. I think it's time go up. Perhaps cliff deal is coming soon. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteClosing all short in yen to re- short at higher ground.
ReplyDeleteShorting nikkeii index and go long in yen\dollar ( medium) position for short term play.
Closing short in dollar/euro, go long dollar\euro
s&p reduce some long position .
Cheer guy
Hi guy , I think the market is in serious short term bull market
ReplyDeleteAdding more long in MSCI emerging index..
ReplyDeleteLong adding More long in S&P
guy this s not a sell market.... i mean in short term..
ReplyDeletedon't short for the time being.
Adding more long in s&p .
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteGood trade for you.
I am still buying a very very small amount of physical gold each week ... looking at these USA politians make me nervious.
Thank you for your very accurate insight into the shape of the market.
Good Trading.
Bob G
interesting article about gold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-28/fleecebook-meet-benoit-gilson-head-foreign-exchange-gold-bis
Hi bob and everyone
ReplyDeleteStill holding on to all the long in s&p and still maintain short.
I think the market is still in hype mode and the stock us still a buy..
The money power is too strong all the bear will get kill..
Continue with the short in dollar..
Hi Preditor, how are you? I'm still holding most of my longs like JPM, INTC, MSFT. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor, Aseng, and everyone.
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-31/bill-gross-credit-supernova
PIMCO's Gross says the debt supercycle will go from bad to worse.
Good trading
Preparing to go short....
ReplyDeleteWill start to reduce position next weeks.
Hi everyone.
I believe we are entering of the last leg of this bull. Prepare to go short in full force.... Reserve all position starting next weeks.
This rally is like the music chair games.... The last player to sit the chair is the luckiest guy .... The rest will fell hard. It is like 20 player with only 10 chair.
So if you are comfortable with the profit ,,,,, TAKE IT! While stock last.
Reserve = reverse
ReplyDeleteThank you Bob and Preditor. I think correction is overdue. Why did market rise so much on Friday? I thought job report was lower than expected. Anyways, good for profit. All is well. Sold JPM on Friday at $47.50. AAII bullish sentiment is high now. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
ReplyDeleteI will start harvesting profit by selling cover calls on my stocks next week. Cheers. Happy trading. Aseng
Hi Preditor, Aseng, and everyone,
ReplyDeleteYes both the spx and djia are in a rising wedge pattern. Good to keep an eye for a good short position. Interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-02/four-charts-panic-money-sidelines-hopers
Gold and silver are in a short term pennant pattern. I agree 100% that gold and silver are being manipulated down by the central banks. I don't care which way the short term pattern breaks, I am still buying a very small amount of silver each week and month. I agree with Preditor, eventually the gold silver ratio will reduce from the current ratio of ~55. Anyways I only buy physical PM, that paper stuff will be worthless someday.
I read am intersting article by Richard Russell, he says to keep 33% of your money in your house/real estate, 33% in cash, and 33% in gold/PM.
Good trading.
Bob G.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIf anyone have opportunity .... short
Philippines stock as much as possible... this market can't go up much from ... sell sell sell ... this will be once of the most profitable trade
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-19/freight-shipment-volumes-plunge-lowest-two-years
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteWell gold and silver broke the pennant pattern to the downside, as expected given the manipulation by the bullion banks. Like you say short strength in PM, but now I am buying the dips :)) There is a story that Martin Armstrong predicts a bottom in Gold at 1158 USD spot. Wow that would smash anyone not serious about PM. For me gold/silver are not for a fast money trade but are a hedge for the bad times here in the USA in our future, but maybe I am wrong, what do you think?
Good Trading
Bob G.
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteThe shale gas deposit and untapped oil reserve in USA soil is something which is making the US dollar retain purchasing power in short term... So I think dollar will be stabilizes ..
The financial market is some what complicated.... Gold will be a good hedge for long term but short term thing can be nasty ..
As long as you acummukate in real precious metal and not the future you should be safe.
Make sure you have don't over invest just 10% of your total wealth
Gold is good when dollar is destabilize but not when it is stable. USA are not the same is UK..
USA is the large producer of soft commodity, soya , wheat potatoes etc. and have huge reserve of untapped natural resources...
So it short USA have real wealth in herself.. Unlike UK is only depend on North Sea oil ..
So... I think the Usa short to mid term should be ok
Hi, I buy euro in dip to 1.3060. What you guys think? I think it going there next.
ReplyDeleteHi Raul,
ReplyDeleteCan you let me know why you are buying this dip? ( just a question) can you give me your insight.... Let exchange some idea...
Thank... I will respond...
I buying because I think Euro will go up after the Italian election even if Silvio Berlusconi wins. Its because they are not easing like US is right not. There is interest rate differential. But problems in Europe look bad later this year. I think I can buy 1.3050 and sell at 134.50 or so. In US stock market I think there is correction which will stop at S and p 1475 or so. What you think?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think is going to happen next in the markets - do you agree with this guy? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-22/jpms-tom-lee-goes-bearish
ReplyDeleteHi Raul and everyone,
ReplyDeletefrom the market action and the G20 meeting on currency... which i think the on going currency devaluation war is temporary truce, lead by Germany ...
so I think the out of this is, the Yen and dollar should gain some strength in this truce period.
while the Euro will weaken .... this my view.
As for stock, after good and quick run all stock market should be in short term pressure ..
Since the market already in bullish mode and inflation style trading mode so it is better to take bet for other side down from here on.
For Euro, I think it is better to start taking profit from long position here ..the Euro might correct to 1.18 - 1.25 is possible target.
Although the Euro do not easy like japan and USA style but weak Euro Giant state like spain, italy , French cannot handle the economy well with Euro at this level. there should be some pressure in Euro in short term
From the gold activity, which i think gold should be in temperoary pressure, but should rebound nicely next week .. this rally should short term and a good jump in price ...
For stock, once it start to correct it is will in downward presure for a while like 1 - 2 month before the next rally regain some leg.
For S&P, my target is about 1420 - 1450 range.
for gold , it will remain wild card, any thing could happen fast... but i still neutural to little bearish at the moment. current hold no position in gold.
Hi Preditor, thank you for your update. I like your strategy, and have been following your posts closely. Please keep sharing your thoughts. I don't like gold either. Perhaps it may rebound next week, but I will not touch it this year. I took profit from some of my longs past few weeks. I sold my stocks such as JPM, BAC, and other holdings like HAL. I will keep cash until SnP is close to 1420 area, and resume buying. I still have some stocks in case markets continue to rise. Most are on cover call for premium. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteProfit is nice if take it, but it will wasted if you just let the opportunity pass by..
cheer guy
Hi Preditor, thank you. Your timing is so good today. I can hold on to my core holding for long term. They give out very good yield. All my short term trades were out weeks ago. I'm looking to buy near 1420 soon. I still don't like gold. I just want companies that give good dividend. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteAmazing rally today - any ideas on where to enter a new short. I think its possible the American market makes new highs for the year before correcting more seriously. Either that, or we get a double top pattern since there is a lot of resistance ahead. I'm looking to short S&P from 1540.
ReplyDelete@Anon - agree, you need fresh news to send these markets across Europe and the World lower. In watching American market, I think new highs for year, then roll over. Check dis, it shows too much margin being used: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-01/bubble-margin
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting story:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed
Also, Sprott says by his calculation much of the gold in the Fed (other countries gold) has already been sold to the East (china and India) via-a-vis the bullion bank JPM in order to supress the price of gold/silver and keep the USD as the reserve currancy. Apparently this is why many countries that have their gold stored at the NY Fed are now asking for it back.
Preditor, I have started a spx short, are you short?
Good Trading.
Bob G.
Bob, nice to hear from you. How are you? Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I'm going to start selling more short term cover call for my dividend stocks like CSCO and INTC. I'm on bull camp. I think US recovery is for real led by housing. I'm going to buy the dip. I don't think market will crash. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng, Hi Preditor
ReplyDeletePreditor has an extra sense about these things, much much better than me. For me looking at the chart, the DJIA and SPX are in a rising wedge pattern and at the upper resistance of the pattern. So I agree 100% with Preditor the spx is due for a pull back. And like he says there can be another up move after the correction to 1420~1440 level. If the wedge pattern holds then in a while there may be a much bigger correction (or worse?).
A word of caution about gold, if gold does not hold the 1500~1550 USD spot level then a big pull back could happen. A fellow named Martin Armstrong is quoted as saying gold will bottom at 1158 USD spot, wow. But I think in the long-long term the USA is in trouble and I hope I am wrong; but physical PM are the best hedge for me.
Good Trading.
Bob G.
Hi Everyone,
ReplyDeleteBob, yes i have start acummulate my short start 1525 and will add more on strength.
1540 , 1560 and massive short at 1570 ..
which will bring my averge to 1550 ...
A note : this bull market is almost 4 years old, so it is looking tired and need some rest .. anyway ... i think it is easier to trigger a bull then a bear base on current environment..
so there alway need to be someone on other side of the trade ..
Hi preditor,
ReplyDeleteyes, I was stopped out at 1526, will look to reshort at a higher level. Spx just doesn't want to correct. Maybe it will go to the tip of the wedge and then crash, like you say 4 years bull needs to rest.
Good trading.
Bob G.