Hi my Friend,
It is quite sometime ...
After lingering in gold price at 1550 - 1600 for a while, if the price fail to break below 1550 - 1525 range in the next few month, i think the bottom for gold is getting near ...
Crossing my finger and watching this range ... at for silver I think at current level is a good buy US$27 - 29 accumulate range for long term play.
Position : -
Stock - I am on the short side of the trade on 75% on the short (huge position)
Oil - Short Side
Gold - no position
Silver -no position
Short Euro / dollar around 1.31
Long Yen / dollar
Long Yen / Euro
-----------------
Cheer guy and good luck
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Thanks for the post! Metals do appear to be basing. Its hard to say what event risk might do to them, at least this is what Faber just said. He thinks there is a lot of systemic risk out there
ReplyDeleteThank you Preditor. I'm mostly out of most stocks too. It's hard to pick the top. May be sell in May and go away season is around the corner. Happy trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor and everyone,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-02/when-great-deflationary-bear-starts-turning-inflationary
Gold and silver are interesting, so much paper PM, but the physical is in tight supply from time to time. I think everone should keep a little PM and physical cash for a hedge if the electronic system locks up one day.
Cheers
Bob G
Hi Bob, Aseng and OG,
ReplyDeleteYes Bob , i agree with you which the situation might get out of hand anytime soon.
And gold will be a hedge in and uncertain time ... however if dollar is finding a strong footing then it is hard for gold to rally for the time being ..
Anyway, find an opportunity to long gold on this depress period in gold price.
As though for stock.... recall when we have really bad news but the stock market rally big time but when the US economy is delivering good news, the stock just consolidating... which is a bit funny... anyway i will stay on the short for stock for a while ... and i am well prepare for the squeeze, so good luck guy...
Hi Preditor and everyone,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-13/china-takes-another-stab-dollar-launches-currency-swap-line-france
It seems that the Currency War is in progress, I suppose this will end in a physical war. With high inflation and asset confiscation by the politicians. Never trust a politician.
Cheers
Bob G
Where do you guys see the bottom in gold and silver? I was thinking around 1400 in gold and 23 in silver. At the moment I have no positions. Waiting to buy this dip
ReplyDeleteHi folks, where do you see things headed in stocks? Market has some jitters
ReplyDeletehi guy ...
ReplyDeleteThing start to get interesting..
Start closing some oil short position (25%) ... see the profit take it.....
Gold -
Guy if you long time investor ... while then it is almost time to start dipping your leg in .
Now don't ever buy future only buy real gold and silver if buy futures always ask for physcial gold delivery even if the price is still getting smashing... ESPECIALLY ETF (this act as speculator backdoor escape route don't let them have escape route )
Confident in gold buy real gold don't buy paper, take delivery.
For stock - i am still on the short side of the trade ..
let see how market play out
After out of market in gold and silver ....
ReplyDeleteI am getting more comfort to enter the market . This is the first time in two years , I start to build my gold position...
Will it go down, yes it will,
Will it go up? Yes it will.
ReplyDeleteSo what is the catch.... It is timing.....
I am a long believe of gold. A lot of big name investor like warren buffet
is not a believer of gold.....
ReplyDeleteGold is not a mean of investment , it is a mean of protection.
Protection against government mis-managment and manipulator fraud.
Question for me about gold:
Will gold go down?.... YES IT WILL.
Will gold go up? YES IT WILL.
What catch for gold....timing ....
Like i have say before .... gold have rally for 10++ years and have not rest since 2000... well even a healthy bull need to rest, so we i said two years ago that the gold need to rest ...
Before we have planning to buy gold , first you have to answer your a good question.
ReplyDeleteWhy you buy it in the first place?
If you answer is : -
A)I believe it will rally soon and i can have profit from it. (Don't buy gold for this reason)
B) protect myself from uncertainty in the distant future that will sure to occure in not too distant future (Yes you fit to buy gold)
Second Question you need to ask yourself.
ReplyDeleteWhat you planning to do with the gold you just purchase?
If you answer is:-
A) i am planning to sell it if the go up tomorrow . Then the second question if you choose this option what will you do if it go down by another 5%... if your answer is sell. don't buy gold.
B) if I am not going sell my gold if it go up tomorrow. Go a head to buy the gold with ease.
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/chinese-gold-exchange-sold-out-begins-importing-switzerland
I have heard of physical shortages in gold and silver. And yes I agree with your thoughts about gold. I bought about 5% of my cash at gold spot 1500 USD and another 15% at 1350 USD, and I have some silver, of course physical only. This is not a trade or an investment, only a hedge for big problems with the finicial system.
I have tried to short SPX two times now, very good positions, but was stopped out. This US market looks to me like it will correct, but it maybe painfull for the shorts ... I will stay out of the market for now, but won't short again ... too much aggravation. So 80% cash 20% PM.
I do think your 1550 SPX short is a good one.
Bob B
Cheers
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteDue to intervention in market under government , speculator is now on advantage side of the trade, so it is more difficult to time the market due to massive liquidity....
Recall we used to have type of feeling on the bear when all analysis is against my target....
Then it take a while for the market to correct... Now this is how I look at the market right now....
First the gold have serious correction while the stock have not any serious correction...
From my view side I will start long gold and short stock.
Everything have two side of the trade..
ReplyDeleteAnd everything if there is a buy position there is always someone at the other side of the trade.. So it is normal..
Good investor buy low sell high and sell high buy low.
I do believe we still have room for rally but since more and more people confident in investment and start to buy the dip in this rally then it is something need to take note.
The more you are not confident in your trade( you are on the right track just need to wait) the more you confidence in your trade ( beware you will be over investing which cause event again your confidence)
Thing you should avoids at all cause.
ReplyDeleteThe best way to invest use you cash position( no margin) do research and buy company with low valuation event the stock got smash ( bearish stock trend is always buying opportunity)
Never play future index or stock if you do not have at least 3 time the marginal call ( you will force out of the market) now thing you should have 4 x ... In short never over leverage your position..
Avoid ETF or any tracking paper trade which follow main index at all cause. This is acting as door trade for speculator.. Do not let them have back to escape.
Confident buy the stock itself not the tracking future paper. Confident in gold buy gold not paper gold or ETF or future without physical deliveries...
Ok cheer guy and hope you guy good luck in your trade
Hi Preditior,
ReplyDeleteYes your thoughts about being in the market are correct. And timing is critical to a good trade. Thank you for your thoughts.
Basically, like you say, this is a liquidly driven market, and the Central banks do not want the market to correct so the market becomes distorted and disorderly, with an eventual big crash ... some day.
For gold I only buy physical but also only American gold/silver Eagle or Canadian gold/silver Maple. They can be bought directly from the mint.
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteGold and silver are at a important point. Either they go up or more likely a pull back. 1158 USD spot is still possible. Thats ok, I will buy more.
The spx refuses to correct. I read articles that the stock market is broken, and I believe it. Too much money printing ...
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteHere is a intresting article.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/27_Eric_Sprott_-_Silver_To_Skyrocket_Hundreds_Of_Dollars_in_Price.html
It is something to think about, can the Central Bankers ever stop printing? Will it all end in collapse? Hopefully, in the USA oil production can keep things going for a while. What are your thoughts about this?
Thanks,
Cheers
Bob G
Hi bob,
ReplyDeleteWhat I am dong is start to accumulate gold but start position is small... As the gold trend is still not clear so you should quickly jump in when it is rally.
You should jump quickly = you should not jump quickly
ReplyDeleteThe central stop once they cannot print anymore , that is when the crisis will go uncheck.... That will happen once they lost the credibility.
ReplyDeleteThis will happen soon then expected .
In regard to rising oil price.. The rising production should bring short deflationary. So I think the price of gold could go lower however with sentiment in gold is too bearish .
there is just too many bear on the short side trade , buy for short term play...
I see strong support at 1450.00..
May 1 closing price is 1458
May 2 closing price is 1467.
So I see on weekly chart if gold could close solidly at 1475, well I think this is,not,a,short term bear indicator. However below, 1460 is not a good indicator too.
Look at copper .. Once of the leading indicator for fundamental..
Cheer guy
For stock , I am feeling the heat on my short position in S&P
Ok cheer ... The central bank is getting out of tool to boost growth.
Hi Guy ...
ReplyDeleteMy short in S&P is getting relieved ....
Time for Stock to rest .....
Take a look at Nikkei ... super bullish just to see water fall correction.
A quick note ...
EU is relieving the austerity in euro zone .... and Europe economy might start to bottom out...
I am going long in Silver and accumulating mid position and same for gold.....
ReplyDeleteit seem like the silver is going to have a blow up rally ...
Stay tune
cheer guy
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThe stock market these days can move very fast either because of no buyers or short squeeze. Central bank printing makes for disorderly markets.
I have a position in both gold and silver (physical). If it goes up good. If it goes to 1158 USD spot (gold) good, I will buy more.
cheers
Bob G
Hi Bob...
ReplyDeleteThe real reason that the market move very fast in one direction is to simple.. cause of "stop loss" the market will creampie all the stop as fast as possible.. that is why i always informed people to prepare for the squeeze .. never allow them to force you to give them you hard earn money .
The real risk is in the market.
cheer.
Today smash down in silver is good for silver.
ReplyDeleteWill add long tomorrow.
No stop loss..
Cheer guy
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThe headlines these days about the things going on in the U$ G_O_ver_ment make me wonder about the politians and central bankers. But they are doing what they do best, staying in power.
I don't plan to sell my gold or silver.
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-10/charles-gave-warns-should-fed-lose-control-downside-move-markets-may-be-terrifying
Basically I agree with the question, how will the US central bank stop QE. My understanding is that it is the flow of money that is important rather than the amount of money in this case. This is because the overall amount of money involved is just to big to monitize. The analog is Japan, currently the Japaneese bond and stock markets are quite volitile. If the US does not monitize and there is no faith in the US dollar then the situation could be very bad very fast. The Japan waterfall you have spoken of.
Currently I do not beleve that much if any recovery is taking place in the US, but on a nominal basis inflation is modest and the US has natutal resorses, so maybe the initial phased will be extended some what. It is hard to see how the housing bubble, now reinflated, as well as all the other bubbles can be maintained for a long period.
My understanding is that hyperinflation can happen very fast once the pieces are in place.
I have a position in gold and silver and will add some shortly. I am still not short this broken market, even thought there is a divergence between the COMP and the DJIA. I think it maybe necessary to let the market become very very over extended and then select individual stocks to be shorted. This has worked in the past.
Do you have any thoughts on the overall situation for the world economy? Also, what do you think about China short/medium/long term?
Thanks and Cheers
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article about gold. The US/big banks are trying to push the price lower so we shall see.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-11/jpm-vault-gold-drops-284-overnight-slides-fresh-record-low-withdrawals-accelerate
Cheers
Bob G
Hi bob..
DeleteThe more gld or jpm vault got is bleeding inventories... It is good,news for pm.
The now alot of gold and mine company is having problem with cash flow and ability to keep business going.. Due to low price in gold and silver .
This will have huge impact in pm soon if the price don't recover.
Keep adding long in both physical and futures.
Now I am focus more on silver accumulate as it is overly over sold
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteSo far the drop in PM is less than 50% of the last drop. This is about right. If silver holds 18~20 USD and gold hold 1158 USD (spot) then a long term baseing process can begin. This can be short, like you say the prices are artificially suppresed and can move higher fast, or it can be more controlled with a 3~6~12 month base followed by a long powerful ralley to gold 3000~5000 USD. At that level the price of silver will be amazing. We shall see.
I bought more physical gold today, now at 25% PM and 75% cash. If the gold/silver charts look good a few months from now, then I will buy silver to 100% with PSLV as a 1~2 year trade. I don't plan to sell my physical gold but I will sell my physical silver when gold is at that 3000~5000 USD level. We shall see.
Cheers
Bob G.
Hi Bob.
ReplyDeletewhat is see is just contract liquidation.. noting more then that.
I like buy thing at depress level... it is usually a good deal.
it might not need to be lowest cause i have no crystal ball for that.
i am preparing to buy back my S&P contract at 1450 downward... all short intact... after long waiting i hope and i think it is the bear turn.
cheer guy
Hi preditor,
ReplyDeleteGood that your short can work for you, for me just too much frustration with the US gov intervention. Every one knows that it is best for a correction or in the case of the spx how is this high level justified, it isn't except for manipulation. Best for me to shrug and invest elseware.
For physical gold I still will accumulae more and I have a position in physical silver but for a silver trade I am very interested, I agree about it being at a depressed level, again US gov manipulation, so I will watch for a point for a large position.
Cheers
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost
like you say the spot price is at the price of production, also the liquidity crunch maybe in asia right now.
Cheers
Bob G
hi bob,
ReplyDeleteArt Manipulation is too create fear factor and agreedy factor.
From what i can see, after so much hammer from 1600 to 1200, there is limited what this guy can do from here.
I am not so worry about that cause i am not leveraging my position and i am planning to take all delivery in my future contractor.
I have never being so bullish in gold and silver especially in silver..
the last time it was back in 2008...
Why worry if you could buy silver and gold below production cost.
It only mean you are getting the best deal of the life time ..
i am going all into gold and silver...
Cheer.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-base-metals?oid=195970&sn=Detail
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteI agree, there is real evidence that the mining companies are being impacted by the current price of PM. I read that some mining companies may try to hedge their production, this was very costly for them the last time they did it (when they bought back there contracts), but if they do it again then temporarly the PM price will be under pressure. Of course when the PM price does go up then the mining companies will get smashed again.
I bought more physical gold on the last pull back. I have one more buy of physical gold to do, to complete my physical gold position. I already have a physical silver position. Many articles I read suggest that the bottom in PM is forming, and I am looking for a large trade entry position for paper silver.
I will keep my physical gold in case of bad times. But both my physical silver and soon to buy paper silver will be for a trade.
Otherwise the crazy US stock market does not behave logically, this may turn into a big crash some day.
Cheers
Bob G
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-07/citi-no-gold-company-will-generate-free-cash-flow-current-gold-prices
ReplyDeleteHi bob..
ReplyDeleteI bet you must feeling depress now...
This is how i think bob..
Yuan is gaining recognition in the currency and it is sure to be one of the world reserve currency and gold will be one of the factor to back Yuan and not dollar (which by the why full of debt, unlike gold and precious metal which do not have debt behind.
Once that kick, gold will surely go up... but it the mean time .. in the depress period thing normally look bad that is when accumulating period.
Timing is important... no one get right all the time .. don't feel bad...
If your way have effect on your profit in your trade then you have to rethink of your strategy..
Regarding to hedging... I think some company with low cost will start to hedging.. but i don't think all company will hedge at this level... unless gold rally above 1450, then i will think lot of company will start to hedge again.
This is interesting as this will form major resistance.
Look to close all long in silver at about 26 and gold about 1450 ...
this is the range i am look at ... before decide my next move.
As for the S&P well... i am not adding more short as i am feeling the heat from my short, and my current position is very big now.....If close now, i will lose, I have faith in my short i will try not to look at the screen.
These guy will try to squeeze me out ... this is how the game is play...Just like poker ...
Cheer u bob and hope everything is well at your end...
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words. Yes everything is fine for my gold and silver position. For gold I will keep it as a true hedge. For silver I think it will rally some day then I will sell. My current PM position is about 28% of my total worth (mostly gold), so no worries. I am still looking for a large position in paper silver to trade but it is not necessary to do so, there is always tomorrow to do another trade in something other than silver. Otherwise I am ~70 cash and doing day and swing trades.
I think Bernake is not giving a clear message, first he says tighten then he says print. I think this will cause distortion in the stock and bond markets.
Cheers
Bob G
Hi bob...
ReplyDeleteWhat Ben mean : It mean nothing lol ...
just sentiment and speculative purpose ...
Cheer
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYes, Bernake just does what he is told. It looks like Yellen may be the next head of the fed.
I completed my gold position last week. And started a small paper silver position. Yes, the 1450 level in gold maybe a good place to take a profit for my paper silver position.
Cheers
Bob G
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteInteresting article,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-24/things-make-you-go-hmmm-fedspeak
Take easy,
Bob G
Hi bob and everyone..
ReplyDeleteCheck this out , it worth your time...
Cheer
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteInteresting articles about chase bank
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-17/blythe-masters-get-out-ferc-jail-free-card-may-cost-jpmorgan-500mm
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476896
Maybe someone wants gold to go higher, but still they are fighting the US goverment, not just chase bank.
Cheers,
Bob G
Hi bob..
ReplyDeleteGold and silver is entering high season... So lot of delivery is taking place which will have price support....
It is a tight market .. So should be a nice rebound from low...
Cheer
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteInteresting article
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/revised-q2-gdp-prints-18-higher-expected-prior-revised-lower
The economic numbers are total nonsense, both china and the US just print what ever they want.
I sold my small paper silver long yesterday, just too much pressure to push it lower. I hope it it can rally. I will keep both my physical silver and gold.
Cheers
Bob G
interesting article
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/blue-sky-index-flashing-red