Hi everyone...
Thing is getting nasty nowsday...so let jump in.
For the past week it seem like the market is making new low every week but don't get carry away with the bearish sentiment cause market is getting complicated due to constant intervention. special toward the end of the month where alot of option future expired.
The data for the past two week is getting to spooky which look like we are heading to more problem ... QE ..... which in my book it is quantity error ....if QE did not born we will hit bottom by now... but quantity error will lead to more error and currency devalue...
world current status: overconsuming, overdebt and over print and finally over intervention which does not bode well to mid - long term. I have a feeling by end of 2012 there will be another crisis and will have serious impact to all of us so it is something to look out for.
China is show in sign of slowing down same as for india, I guess the mood of the market is not bode well,so the trend will continues to be bearish... but beware of intervention which obama and the Fed is showing sign of nervous...
For the economy to go forward, the soft commoditiy need to comedown, but the supply is a great issue due to bad weather so I did not see much price presuure going forward, Oil need to come down but the libya is causing serious supply issue in the world oil output, so a serious correction is in doubt in mid to long term but anything can happen in short term so be cautious.. Interest rate need to come down which I did not see that will happen at least in the next 3 month ... so after combine all this factor it is really difficult to put a bull flag.
China main problem will be water which had post a serious tread since begin of this years , but it is getting some relief for the past week due to rain.. at least the short - mid term is getting relief so I will give a small bull flag in here which should stimulate so manufacturing activity.. but raising commoditity price and oil is still posting tread here so I will put few bear flag here ... so is the interest rate ..
Japan is problem is the energy with the shifting of energy structure in Japan from nuclear to greener energy which natural gas is the most best alternative but in short term Japan will face energy problem due to shift in energy policy... the machinery order which come down and cause surprise but i guess it is due to nuclear crisis and will certain cause great delay in rebuilding plus uncerttianty in power supply this should come in no surprise for the machinery order fell in japan ....
Trading strategy : -
Stock Market Bearish ... be cautious when appoarching end of the month... I am suspecting a short squeeze ... so it is wise to take profit of 30-40 % from your short position one week before the end of the month and short on strength onmce the short squeeze is done.
Precious Metal . Long term, bullish but anything can happen in short term.. from the silver chart , I can see the 200 days moving average is creeping up ... so I think there is a great chance the silver will make more correction toward 33-34 ... so I might be a bit fast hand when eneter the position but I am long term bullish so I guess there will be some short term pain in my precious metal position ...
As for oil, if by this Wednesday the price do not breach US$96, I will start to add long position to oil..
For bond ... the price is getting nice to short, but patient always win... i will be a bit patientbefore going to short .
I will extend my commentary later on..
God be with you everyone..
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Metals look pretty bearish at the moment - we had a key breach of technical support in both gold and silver. Hope to buy silver at 32-33 but not confident in any big rally till later this summer. Shorts in the S & P still seem to be a good idea. As for oil, I think it can trade down to 92 or so but that remains to be seen.
ReplyDeleteI increased my gold position today by 25%, and will increase again upon further dip. Silver looks to spooky. Ive got my stop set at 1470.
ReplyDeletehi everyone,
ReplyDeleteGold base is 1500 - 1510, i think this should hold..
For silver 32-34, acccumulate .
Oil. 91-91 accumulate
oil - 91-93 accumulate
ReplyDeleteLooks like we have a little short squeeze in the works right now. I had to rebalance some positions so I won't get too hurt on the short since I entered late from 1280. Oh well. Anyone think this short squeeze goes to 1300 or above in the S & P? I think it might, but I have to cover my hedges soon to be safe. Preditor you spoke of the squeeze towards the end of the month. Do you think that today's price action is the squeeze you were talking about. I want to add to more shorts but i'm wondering where is the best place to do it. I have orders set for 1298 to add to short.
ReplyDeleteMarket action has been decidedly tricky. Tough to say whether this bounce has any follow through today..
ReplyDeleteHi og,
ReplyDeleteMy advice is to stick to the short and add more short on strength... cause short squeeze is mean to squeeze out the weak hand short ....
Bearish : - short on strength ...
Hi Preditor, are you buying oil yet? Do you think SnP short squeeze will come soon given that we're near option expiry? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteShort Squeeze = opportunity to add short on strength ... or reposition you portflio ..
My play is to close 40% of my short at about 1220 - 1230 area and short at 1255 - 1270 area.
For oil i am waiting at 92 - 93 area
Nice work with your short. I highly respect your conviction in staying with the trend even with these whipsaw bounces. At this point i'm waiting for a deeper pullback in commodities in order to get long (gold and oil). I like the 1500 mark in gold.
ReplyDeleteThank you Preditor. Today SnP closed with such a nice come back. I think it might be caused by Option day tomorrow. Thanks for your guidance Preditor. I had been profitably shorting banks via SKF. But, I am looking to switch to SnP via SDS. Good luck trading. Aseng
ReplyDeleteDo you have any targets for your short (as far as where to start the short) on the 30 year US treasury? Right now its around 126.
ReplyDeleteSetting first position in oil 93.5
ReplyDeleteplacing more long on 92.5 and 92 ..
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised at how quickly the oil market fell. I read some energy trader posts somewhere that said that 92 is a trade-worthy bottom.
ReplyDeleteToday load up oil full position...
ReplyDeletegot all target hit
Hi Gerg,
ReplyDeleteI think westill can wait for a while more .... I am looking forward to short in bond when there is a panic selling in S&P ... so i am going to be a bit patient ...
Cheer every one
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/podcasting-charts-matter-next-week-technical-look-european-breakdown
ReplyDeleteSome nice charts courtesy of the Goldman fx desk here. They feel that a topping structure is in place for the euro at least from a technical perspective, that will gradually play out.
Hi Preditor, any idea why oil dropped so much, while gold/silver holding up? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng...
ReplyDeleteManupulation in short, to create short term confusion and conflict ..
LOL
Cheer
OG....
Know the drill look for opportunity to go long in euro on dip ... once speculation is done with euro, dollar will be their next leg long term down
You guys know about frank/diff bill going into effect for US traders July 15, look it up in case you've been poorly informed about gold and silver trading
ReplyDeleteDiff-dodd
ReplyDeleteYeah Chris, I've read a lot of articles about the bill and how some dealers are discontinuing trading in gold and silver products because they are concerned about the implications of the legislation.
ReplyDelete@Pred - Yes, I agree with you about euro, was just playing devils advocate with that Goldman article to elicit some commentary from you. Btw, are you still planning on exiting that short position on Thursday? Why not just hang onto it if it doesn't meet your target. At the same time, I also wonder if a squeeze is in the making. Tough market to trade.
Its my understanding ALL gold and silver trading in the US will be stopped.. I will check my sources again to be sure.
ReplyDeleteOkay all OTC precious metal trading. So govt trying to block the little guys out, which includes myself.
ReplyDeleteMy feeling is that today is merely a bounce in an oversold market. Notice that there was no volume, and yet 2 pomo auctions to support the market. I'm still near term bearish.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is a big day in the markets with the Greek vote of confidence in the prime minister coming up late in the day. This could have a pretty big effect on the near term direction of the markets. I think the vote will pass. What do you guys think?
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy, but I just went long the nasdaq for a short term trade, maybe for 2 weeks or so. I think the Greek vote will pass. I'm also long oil like Predictor. Lets see what happens. I remember Predictor saying that he was gonna cover his shorts no later than the 23rd, with a hope that the market would fall to the 1230-1250 level. It looks to me that the 1250 level has held rather well, and that we do get a bounce from here right now. I feel that my move is just a short term trade and i'll be looking to get out of it soon and short again. This market has been notorious for trapping the bears, and I had shorted from too low a level (around 1290). Hope this works and happy trades to all.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have near term price targets on oil? I'm thinking about 100 a barrel. Looks like 92 held well. Risk appears to be on for a bit
ReplyDeleteTook profits in Nasdaq futures at 2248. Reentering long at 2218 with a target of 2350. Out of oil completely yesterday with a small profit. I just don't like the chart or the comments out of the fed re: oil, at least for the short term.
ReplyDeleteWhere is Preditor. Its interesting today that Nasdaq is holding support while the S & P broke support. Odd.
ReplyDeleteOG, are you still holding your nasdaq long?
ReplyDelete@ Seth - no, no more nasdaq. Bought some silver today at 33.50 for a short term play.
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about ~1445 for gold (spot) and ~31 for silver (spot).
Thanks
Bob G
Hi Preditor:
ReplyDeleteIt´ll be also good to know your opinion about oil.
Thank´s a lot
Andrés
Preditor, can we get some commentary from you? I think this market resumes its downtrend within a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeletePreditor..where are you?
ReplyDeleteHi everyone....
ReplyDeleteAfter closing my short , i went to holiday for 1 week... so look like a close call...
I have close 80% of my short the remaining position is now with slight lose but it is acceptable,
I will start to add more short on this strength . for buy back target let how market play out in the next few day.
Anyway, the economy is still look not so good... i think the fast raise in S&P is a big squeeze..
I think is overdone, the stock should be on the leg down...
For oil, with the surprise release stock from IEA, it seem like the oil production issue is a problem which I think the oil will like touch US$100 - 102 which look forward to take profit.
For precious metal. QE2.5 which begining to roll out before QE3 started so metal should have found bottom at 1489 area and silver at 33.2 area...
The worr\st for precious should be over now...
Will be back for more commentary.
Preditor, thank you for the comments. I trust that you had an enjoyable holiday. I am astonished by the magnitude, power and speed of this short squeeze as it appears to be an effort to wipe out the bears. Short interest in the indices had risen to almost a 2 year high before it began! I'm looking to lay on some shorts soon. Of note was recent commentary from Marc Faber. I follow his thoughts closely. He feels that the high in the market will not exceed the 1370 level in the S & P that was hit this year, and that the market will top out sometime in early August. He also feels that the fed will not act to initiate qe3 until the market has a greater than 10% correction, as this will prompt the politicians to allow him to do this without a great backlash. Finally, he thinks gold is in an uptrend (of course) but that for the next couple of months it will continue to suffer. He sees a floor of 1400 in gold and thinks prices may reach this area, creating a buying opportunity. I believe 1450 will be revisited, as will the 1250 level in the market (at least)
ReplyDeleteHere are the links. What do you think of Faber's accuracy?
ReplyDeletehttp://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/we-can-rally-to-1330-but-august.html
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/gold-is-undergoing-short-term.html
Looks like I was right about going long a few weeks back. I got shaken out a while ago though. For what its worth, I re-entered an oil long at 96 with a 103 target by end of july.
ReplyDeleteIts been about a month? Preditor, would you mind making a new post? I love to hear your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteStill long oil?
ReplyDeleteHi Everyone, this is interesting Bloomberg article about George Soros's thought of China hard landing.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-14/soros-says-china-missed-window-to-stem-inflation-now-risks-hard-landing-.html Happy Trading, and good luck!
Aseng
What do you guys think of the action in metals? John Embry was quoted on king world news as feeling that the silver market could extend to the mid-forties. I agree. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteHi og.
ReplyDeleteYou knew my answer ... I think this time the silver might past US$50.00 mark
....
Hope all are well. I did buy silver, but I waited for some confirmation. I'm in at 36-37 dollars. Looks like the price is now set for a move to 50 and above. I also bought many silver coins. I believe this move to 50 can happen pretty quickly. There is word of a lot of asian buyers coming in soon since china is about to put forth a mini contract in gold ansd silver that is open to the general public. This will be significant. I will, however, take my profits at about 50 dollars as I had made the mistake last time and did not do so, only to suffer. Good luck all..
ReplyDeleteHi seth,
ReplyDeleteoil will be on up trend, so any dip is a buy
........
Hi og,
ReplyDeleteIf the silver manage to rally past 50 mark, which i think it will , i think the 50 will be a new base for silver, so it would be wise to hold silvwe till it rally past 53 ... which i think it would before a correction take place..
Cheer everyone
Hi Preditor, what do you think of SnP? Thanks! Aseng
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on the near term direction of gold?I say up. No debt deal for a bit. Speaker Boehner said to expect turmoil in the financial markets for a few days.
ReplyDeleteHi Aseng,
ReplyDeleteI think there will be some last minute deal which should spark up S&P, if this should occur, short should be added
Thank you Preditor. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteYour preditions have been very good. Any thought for the next 6, 12, 18 months? Gold and silver still ok?
Thanks
Bob G
Any thoughts on the market actions of late? looks like oil is going down with the market. I have a target of 1225 for the s&p - how ahout you guys?
ReplyDeleteHi Greg, I think Faber was right calling for SnP 1100. Gold is up while oil is down. Any thoughts on that? Thanks. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHI Aseng, looks like oil and gold will move in the opposite direction. I think from now till mid-september will be huge for gold. Lets see..
ReplyDeleteThanks Greg. Huge upside for gold? USD is toast. I can't see why anyone wants to buy it with the way the government treating their budget. This is madness! Sorry for ranting. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteYestersday sell off was impress and I start to cover my short in s&p,
For gold and silver I think we might've meet some short term if gold pass 1700 before end of next week,should take profit on on future . And wait till end of the month before make new purchase.
For oil i will be buying again at 85 - 82
Hope you guy have good trading
Looks like the market will bounce from here. I see at least 1250-1280 in the cards as a place to try a short. Thing is, we had a good jobs report and word from the ecb it will backstop the major countries in debt trouble in a big way. What do you guys think of the market action? Could we get a short squeeze of great size? What levels would you consider for a new short entry (if this is indeed a new bear market forming and not just another selloff)?
ReplyDeleteinitiating short in 30 year treasury at market open.
ReplyDeletePreditor, I like your idea of going long oil at 83 or so. Post when you pull the trigger if you can. I'm not so sure about shorting bonds just yet og - they might not move lower even with the downgrade. I would set a 90-92 target on oil if it can be bought at 83.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my treasury short. I did buy oil this morning at 83.50 though.
ReplyDeletePreditor,
ReplyDeleteSilver still a hold?
Thanks
Bob G
Oil continue going down, reached 76.. are you buying Pred at this levels?
ReplyDeleteHi Bob, closing toward end of the end ... silver short term look not good.... i will close all my silver and gold future contract. today ...(but not physical)
ReplyDeleteAndrea,
Oil look like a long liquidation to me, and i will start buying at this price , actually i have brought some at 80.50 and will accumulate more on this liquidation.
And close all my short in S&P in yestersday trade ....
hope everyone will have good trading today ..
Yeah I bought a full position in oil at 81.50..hope this goes straight back to 90 on word of more easing by the fed.
ReplyDeletePredictor, from what level are you looking to short the S&P again? I have my eye on 1250 or so. Anyone else? I just don't see the market moving higher from there, but it could since it does unexpected things sometimes.
ReplyDeletePreditor, looking to buy spxu..anticipating a major crash by years end or early next year. It doesnt appear qe3 is gonna play out. Not messing with the s&p futures because I'm not comfortable with the leverage. So preditor do you think SPXU is a good play for the end of this year?
ReplyDeleteBy the way i'm selling half of my physical gold and silver accumulation. Metals are at VERY dangerous levels anyone playing them now is taking large risk.
Hi Chris, congratulations on selling your gold and silver. That was good timing on your decission. Good stuff. Aseng
ReplyDeleteHi chris,
ReplyDeleteNice Chris, this is short term plunder... this guy are merciless, so hope you be careful when playing with the future... i suspect that there will a plunder like silver, which is why u took all my profit around US$1,700.00 - 1710 which prove to be early bird this time.
Anyway no hard feeling , as i have make profit from this selling but at the same time wasted the chance to make huge profit.PLAYING THE FUTURE... always have dicipline and sell when it hit your target...
For the metal trade... this time the gold make a huge run before make correction so i guess, this tme the silver will advance more aggressive then gold ever, my target for silver accumulation is US$34-35/oz
For gold look forward for another nice bound before correction again... which if this occur, please hesitate to bring out your shopping basket for this cheaper level.
======
For
S&P, thing might look at good in short term but I think we should start to to trade another side of the coin... due over pessimistic in the market ... so i think we might see surprise rally...
So prepare for a buggy ride
Have any levels for S and P? I see resistance points at 1157, and 1180 with support at 1120 or so. Does the Bernanke speech cause us to retest 1120....hmm
ReplyDeleteHi Pred
ReplyDeleteAs you are you expecting another correction for gold? Which is your target to start buying again? And for the S&P which would be for you a good short target? Thank´s a lot!
Looks like metals are poised to move higher. 50 dollar silver by end of month?
ReplyDeleteHi Preditor,
ReplyDeleteAre you buying silver at this level ~40.5 USD spot?
Thanks
Bob G
Hi Everyone...
ReplyDeleteHope everyone is doing well.
Gold look good for accumlate @ US$1750 - 1790 range, punch that button ....
Silver i Think we can also start to accumulate at US$38 - 40.00
Let cross finger and enjoy the ride ,
good trade everyone
Hi Preditor,
ReplyDeletewell I did not buy any PM so am sitting in cash with a puzzled look on my face. Seems like the PM story is intact so it is possible this is just a correction, or was it a top? What do you think?
Thanks
Bob G