This mean ...
Australia are preparing for inflation country are preparing for inflation from dollar ... And there should be more country follow suite ... be prepare ...
From this dollar weakeness trend .. I think
Dollar will resume weaken
Commodies should continues it strength
Stock should be in green ...
I will be back for more update early in the trading session
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Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteJim Rogers said, since there's a huge money printing going on right now, he don't want to short anything. And there will be a big shortage of commodities in next 10 years because people can't get a loan for farm or mining right now. Also he said, that there's a HUGE SHORT on Dollar right now, the whole world is shorting dollar, and at anytime dollar can rally strongly upward, and JIMMY's BUYING some Dollar now. http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/10/2_Jim_Rogers.html
Pred, i think he's right, we have a huge, a RECORD Commercials take long positions, all time high COT long Dollar now. I place a Buy STOP order for dollar at 79.00, as time goes by, i will reduce my buy stop lower & lower to catch the breakout. Gold may retrace down to close yesterday's big gap whenever dollar bounce up. No, i don't short Copper, no short on Oil either. T Boone pickens says, Oil will go to $85 by next year. (only $85 ???). Santer says, gold continue to go up. http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Santer%20Says%20Gold%20Poised%20to%20Rise%20Further%20on%20Tight%20Supply&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vXKoaSirZ2pY.asf
Anthony
hi pred..
ReplyDeletemy views(technical) to soft como plays..
like you pointet out fundamentals are great lots of cheap money hunting down everything..
corn
i was in this play and chickend out last week on this downday..
large traders are long and crossing comercials to the upside..if 2 day break away gap holds think i will give it a nother try..
wheat im not that bullish in shortterm..
thers a very old trendline going up,think at moment around 420...large traders are short
hm cannot link pictures but you can see on timingcharts..
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php
@anthony
hm looks like you really winning on both sides of your yen trade, if 200mva yen vs euro breakes i give it a shot too
Hi Everyone ...
ReplyDeleteIt seem like everyone here is make some make money congrat :)..
==============
Anthony,
Jim roger is very good is seeing mid - l;onger term trend .... if you stick with his trend your trade should do well .. And I agree with him ... I have not have full short position for quite sometime ... I have some small short from time to time .. but I am a bull most of the time ...
================
Allen
the large trade short can be manipulated to confused the trend .... What you see in the report might not always be the trend ...
From the position I can conclude, some one would like to buy thing at cheaper price ... that why they short the market to accumulated position the during the sell off ..
Like the nat gas , back in August , which I got trick to sell my nat gas position at lose which my original target is to hold for long term play .. If I stick to my original, I will have earn big time ...
Soon after that three week , the Nat gas jump big time ... which make me regard for making that call ...
Below is the link:
http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/08/long-s-at-1005-before-yestersday.html
Learn is learned from this trade :)
Ooopss mistype
ReplyDeleteLearn is learned from this trade = lesson learned from this trade
Expect today equity market will be a bit bumpy ...
I will be back to update more
Allen
ReplyDeleteEur.JpY target at 100, can go down to 90. No need to wait, short it
Anthony
US Dollar is ready to bounce up. Careful.
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Hey Pred
ReplyDeletedaily stochastic on dollar is rising. Be careful going long during dollar near support at 75/76, things can get wild. When Jimmy rogers buys dollar, we better be a bit careful. This 75, may be the terminal station of dollar's downtrend, that's why Jimmy is buying. Pred, what do you think about Copper? It looks v weak.., looks like going to roll down on rising dollar? I really not sure. I place my short at 2.90 resistence. If i don't get hit, then that's fine... I don't know, if dollar breaks support 75, Copper will obviously rally back up. I am a bit leery shorting now. It's not easy to short when dollar keep fainted like this.
Anthony
anyone wants to short USD.JPY at 89.50 resistence today ? Dollar is rising, daily stochastic curling up, also at the bottom of Lower BB band. Right now, I rather short Eur.JPY, don't depend on dollar's direction.
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Hi Anthony.
ReplyDeleteI have anticipate a bumpy market today but in the end the index should trade up ..
By the way .. are you sure jim rogers buy dollar, I serious doubt about it ...
The dollar weak trend still intact ...
I don;t think it is a good time to good long at this resistence ...
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteIf what you say is that other countries will raise interest rates, then perhaps you are saying that I should buy gold and silver, even at these prices???? I was hoping for better entry.
Happy trading.
Shirley said...
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
I bought MDM a few weeks back at 2.43 as a lark - very small position. Never any news on this stock that I can find, at least, but it keeps going up - my intuition says this company, which is in partnership with DeBeers has found some diamonds.
============
Hi Shirley
I have little knowledge regarding this company ...
But if the position is not big and you can affort to take risk .. it is not bad to hold on for a while...
Shirley said...
ReplyDeleteHi Pred,
If what you say is that other countries will raise interest rates, then perhaps you are saying that I should buy gold and silver, even at these prices???? I was hoping for better entry.
Happy trading.
===========
Althought I am bullish on gold and silver but tradingis not one way street ... I am not sure how high the gold price will go but I think there will some pull back sometime in the future ...
It is always a good to buy when price depress ..I think gold will try to form a new bases .. which I think 1025 - 1035 range..
Hope you trade will be grand
Don't forget today is the treasury auction, dollar will again some ground ... but not much
ReplyDeleteThere will some pressure in the equity market as the auction draw near ... the market will be under pressure ... this will get more bumpy
ReplyDeletePred, Shirely
ReplyDeletePred, jimmy is buying dollar, see my URL link above, it's radio, u need to spend time to listen their interview. The reason is the same, Commercials' super heavy Long on Dollar. Hey Shirely, i agree with Pred, gold should have some pull back. Because heavy short on Commercials, heavy short. What price to go in? I think, on Dec. contract, $1020 must hold. See hourly chart, this is the lower end of yesterday's GAP. If $1020 break, then we should go to next support level, i think at near $970+? (please check..). So, enter long at $1020 and place your stop really close (if lucky to get in at $1020). That Commercials issue must be addressed, too much downward pressure. They have building up short positions for months by now. Hey Pred, OIL breakdown now... Short ??
Pred,
ReplyDeletei'm placing short Crude at $70.0, target at 66 or 65. this one looks like goin down
Anthony
@anthony
ReplyDeleteif jim is really buying dollar than i must hope that his timing isnt that good like he always says in interviews..
my target is 1,48 double top euro vs dollar
target from a very good ewler is 1,4916
@predictor
think there are 2 patterns that are usefull at this timingcharts
one is the crossing of large traders and hedgers,comercials
and the other like u said this extrem shorting from large traders..but with lot things we really dont know if the are able to get cheaper prices or the must cover shorts..we could have seen buttom ore are very close to it..
change short at 69.50, 70 is too high. that's it.
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeletego listen to the radio interview link above. Jimmy also not sure..., but he put his money. Dollar is for - sure 100% sure will bounce up, make some kind of correction. But, the timing is very tricky, not even Jimmy knows exactly. That's why he's buying little by little on the way down. Dollar's ultimate support on chart, daily chart is at 75.00. Nobody knows exactly when dollar will bounce up, so, Euro, Gold & Silver still can continue to move up, but just to know we have a probability to go down as well. The longer they go up with no retracement, the higher the risk. The risk is always there. We need to put STOPS on daily basis, and i also putting a Buy Stop on Dollar on daily basis. Remember - again, they have building up huge Short gold, silver & huge Long on Dollar for few months already, it's a RECORD Long on Dollar. not ordinary long on dollar, not ordinary short on gold, they're at RECORD, fyi. Be careful---we're near turning point.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteYou website is becoming a real success! I'm really glad. I hope you make a little money every time someone comes to your site.
Thanks everyone for your comments as I am a newbie and trying to learn not to panic. I am very busy the rest of this week and will fold up my work site and check back next week.
Good trading out there for all.
thx anthony for the warning..
ReplyDeleteour ew guru goes so far he predicts a dollar euro 1,21
For me dificould to belive his target, if that really happens than equity markets are bust
http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/EUR-USD-Euro-erst-long-dann-MASSIV-SHORT,a1906815,b461.html
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI have post link on Jim rogers interviews
http://news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=jim+rogers+on+dollar
I did not see he is buying dollar ...
Can you recheck again..
I serious doubt that jim rogers buy dollar
I think 1.21 euro/dollar is past things, we will not get there not at least the next 5 years ...
ReplyDeleteShirley ,
ReplyDeleteI hope this webblog will be helpful to everyone ... it is normal to be panic for new investor ... but trust me you will get better ..
==============
By the way, I think the S&P is heading up from now, the oil will need to take 1 day break and will rebound later todayn ...
Dollar will resume down trend ..
Preditor...,
ReplyDeletewhy you go to news.google.com?
go hear, not go see, you go hear the interview on the link above. it's radio. i'm not bullshiting you. I'm done for today. talk to you tomorrow. I may take my crude profit tomorrow, i'm not sure wait & see. I'm in Asia, so, i got to go go sleep now. Good night.
Anthony
Got to go ..
ReplyDeleteI update again today
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletedo you got that jimmy rogers? here's the link again, it's radio. there's nothing to see, you got to listen interview, near the last part.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/10/2_Jim_Rogers.html. My Oil short got stopped out, breakeven stop.
Anthony
Hi Anthony,
ReplyDeleteDollar weakeness will not be a 1 way street, so there will a rebound in the future but I did not see that happen anytime soon ..
I have listen to the link you posted ... Jim roger is only taking short term contrian view on dollar so he is taking because there is too my people shorting the dollar but not the fundament side ... He is still long term bearish on dollar ...
No doubt there will be a rebound in the dollar ...
Timing is import if you are going to earn big money ... I will post this once I have turn short term bullish on dollar ..
Pred,
ReplyDeleteyeah, i know, the whole world is bearish on dollar. But, we also know, it's way overextended, can bounce up anytime. You can see it in Forex, all currency against USDollar is overextended. One day, they're all snap back, just don't know when. Be careful adding at this point. I rather wait for correction. I lighten up my exposure to US Dollar for now. I just go long on EUR.CHF today at 1.5160; buy Euro, Sell SwissF. Now, i see Oil is turning up, Copper also start to go up. But, dollar is overextended, so, anytime can change. Istay away from Dollar for now, waiting for correction. My short Oil got stopped out, breakeven stop.
Anthony
hm i sell half position short dollar euro today my goal is almost reached 1,48 double top..
ReplyDeletewith the rest i try to reach the goal of this ewler 1,4916 but could be bumpy dont think that 1,48 resistance would be taken first try if taken that would be a strong bullish sign for euro..
@anthony
ReplyDeletethink ur right,but we dont know when.. could go 1,50 first,i stick with half position..maybe there will be a false breakout about 1,48 to get really everybody into this shorttrade than sudden reverse..
also trying to opening a position short euro yen like u always say, maybe it could be some sort of hedge against a sudden dollar rally..and in worst case it seems its moving sideways.. with all that carry trade unwinding pressure
dont like buying near that havy resistance at 129,5..maybe some days of euro strenght give me a good entry in that position..if resistance breaks first and retest is success its a buy for me..
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteI'm no good in timing Eur.JYen. I know only the spread of 3mo in Euro & Jap int. rates goes to near zero % now. This means, there is no more driver to push Eur.Yen up. Every turns on this pair is driven by int. rates differential. This means, like Jimmy rogers say, the money goes to Asia. So, all the carry trades from Jap will reverse back to Asia when Eur.JPY goes down all the way to 100 or even to 90 when it started. Go plot the rates differential vs. Eur.Jpy pair, then you will see what i mean, every turn on the spread rates, the pair also makes turn, up, down or flat. It's driven by the interest rates. My timing may not be perfect, I'm a terrible trader, just hang on if your account can stand the fluctuation. Remember, don't get margin calls.
Anthony
IT is not only the world bearish on dollar,
ReplyDeleteBut the whole world begin to spend the accumlated dollar ... this happen at the time when Fed are printing the dollar to spur economy ... This is a real bearish sign ....
Anyway do not be a bull in dollar now ... Wait for another week and see how the market go from there
dollar's next move can be really unpredictable, like a wounded & desperate animal. I won't add anymore dollar short here, the risks go up higher & higher everyday. Most Forex currency pairs are so overextended now, ready to snap. Be careful. Makes me wonder, what will make the dollar to go up?
ReplyDeleteAnthony
For every Long contract in Gold or Silver, there's 1 short open. Who open the short? The commercials sell the contract to small speculators & to the Fund. All this will end one day when the mkt snap back. We're all aware that we have a record commercial short in gold, silver & record long in dollar. All this must reverse big some day. I wait for correction for the Gap in gold, silver to close down
ReplyDeleteAnthony.
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI will worry about that another ... so now I see all my gold goose this week wlll be another good trading for me ...
I will take some profit by the weekend
@anthony
ReplyDeletehehe u should know iam biggest chicken of them all, iam not using much leverage just 20%investet now rest cash in euro which iam looking to convert maybe ausi dollar or yen dont know maybe both..
only buying small position first, if its working and i get a free game i buy a secound not often a third time..if position goes against me so i have still time to get out with a small win or eaven..
iam loosing not often, but when iam loose than it hurts really.. like last year.. have so a bad habit halfing positions when its often better to sell them, than half again..still have some shares from dot com bubble...someday the will rise!! hehe
@preditor
really unbelievebal performance, think allmost every singel position from u is big time up..
Pred, Allen
ReplyDeletePred, you want out from Gold this weekend ? Good. Me too.
take a look at Coffee, looks like it's going to make a breakout on its big triangle on daily chart. Hey, Allen, everybody is chicken. Me too. U don't have to be chicken too often. Keep your bet small & be a really good pig, get in early, then take your profit like a pig too. :)
Pred,
ReplyDeleteCOFFEE. Go Long or go Short ? I prefer to short it. What do you think ????
Pred
ReplyDeleteI think, Coffee is in trading range... no trend. Sell on strength, buy on weakness?
My short is waiting on top
Anthony
I have add a new blog ...I will adding in the new one
ReplyDelete