On friday, the market the market go against my reading which I am quite lucky that I am no longer interesed in equity bull, if not I will struck big time ..
I think I forget about is the QE ended last week which it was my mistake to forget thought of this in my anaylsis last week..
anyway, I think the market is overdone, looking for a bound this weekend. The biggest rally will come somewhere on between Tuesday and Thursday, if I still have money I will buy but all my fund is full invested in commoditiy gold, silver , oil wheat and corn. Position still safe
As you all have take note I have shift my investment to commodities now 100% in commodity ... I still quite confident in my position even with the Friday sell off ...
Soft commodity next upleg?
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS199272+30-Oct-2009+PRN20091030
Today commoditiy probably going to retest my confident if not then we will see rebound which I will hold on tight for now .
Oil I think I will turn on the bearish sigh for oil soon ... but for now still hoilding long waiting to close out position in a rebound ..
From 66 to 78 - ?I think oil have increase my wealth alot for the past three week .. sometime we need to know the party wouldn't last forever ..
=============
With bond market become valuerable due to bond pruchase program ended, with the bearish sentitment in the overall market, mortage rise ... this will be a concern to Fed . And I am betting the bond purchasing program will be extended just like the BOE.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/29/AR2009102905090.html
I will be expecting light bound or small down in equity and all assest price in early of the week and strong rally after Wednesday.
Dollar should resume weekness ...
Be fearless when everyone is feared and be feared when everyone is fearless.
=============
Lastly, I come to think why the treasury purchasing will be extended ..
This is how I see, first the US economuy is still not out of the wood yet so there is alot of concern in the strength of the rebound ... now the Fed would not want to see investment sink, secondary the US would like to see weaker Dollar
1)so to inflated away some of the debt,
2) to increase manufacturing for exporting which will create more job in USA ..
3) Chinese would like to see yuan strength too fast but the Fed also does not want the dollar to regain stength so we have conflict issue here ... So I believe the Fed will injet more dollar into the economy via treasury auction to lower the dollar value and to finanace deficit..
As tricky as it get .... just be prepared for a "surprise" trading trend today or tomorrow ..
Sorry if my anylsis have cause some poeple to struck in the market last , which I believe that the trading trend will reverse sooner then anyone expected ..
Will extend commentary later today , should be very interesting week ...
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what is the sure bet on commodities right now in your opinion?
ReplyDeletethanks chris
Hi Chiris
ReplyDeleteMy position is mid to long term, I am very bullish on commoditiy so
I wrote my analysis about stock and commoditity in HMS blog about 1 or 2 month go, the next big rally will be in commoditity even if the stock declines...I have being bullish in for quite sometime since August ..
Chris, it depend if you position is for long term play or short . short erm is quite speculative so it will be a tough call.
Short term play alway out tight stop 1 % range, for long term play don't look at the daily trend
I think accumulate commoditity on dip is the best strategy ...
My bet will be on almost all commodity gold, silver, corn, wheat but I still have some doubt on oil ...
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeletedo you think Oil can go up to $80 ?
I think dollar's rally can't last, don't you think so ?
I put Stops on all my positions.
Silver & Gold do well today. Oil just beginning to move up. I was right last week.
Anthony
hm maybe sounded to bullish in my last writing..also think like preditor..could be a big bulltrap for stocks..faber last letter also bearish to stocks..he writes something about 70%stocks trading above 50average..next buying chance for stocks he sees when only 30% trade abouve 50mva..
ReplyDeletedont know how commos will do in correction..cannot affort to go down with my leveraged positions so i will take some profit when chance..
future position still interresting long position in hand of large traders..commercials are neutral..all shorts in hand of small traders(dumb money)..
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteI am looking for 85 -90 dollar oil ... last week dollar i would not call a rally, it is some rebound ..
Let see, if my weak dollar prediction will come as anticipated ..
Look like my silver and gold shine again ..
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteGold up $22, do you think will break all time high this week ??
Anthony
I am very bullish since last week ..
ReplyDeleteso I will let number do the magic , 1090 this round target
oh may 1100 for gold is on card silver 18.00
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeletei think $18 Silver is coming soon. :))
Anthony
would be great if we manage to close above euro/dollar 1,4851 in the next days..than double top could be in reach..
ReplyDeletehm my miners still laaging
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis. I am leaving town for a few days and can't watch markets too closely.
Friday was a tough day for my stocks so I was thinking the major correction was upon us. Now, I will put in orders to sell at certain prices above today's levels.
I took positions in HL on Friday (3.98) and added today @ 4.55. Also bought gold - NG.
If prices don't hit the target I will likely sell equities that aren't commodity stocks on Thursday or Friday, then wait for market correction.
Good trading to all.
Hey Allen
I have miner, TLR which is also lagging, but I think the other miners will catch up soon. Remember we are in hope phase and not irrational - I like that.
I mean HL @ 4.22 - NG @ 4.55
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteOne last thing - I heard from my realtor that US government is going to give a $6500 tax credit to buy a house - this is for everyone, not just first time buyers. That should be good for shorting treasuries.
Hi guys,
ReplyDeleteI added a little oil today. i too have big stake in Hecla Mining. I believe miners will do well over next couple of months. Your analysis was good pred, since everyone else got so scared yet you stick to your guns. thats why i like your blog. my positions are about 40% silver and silver miners 30% gold and gold miners 10% oil and 20% other soft commodities.
Shirley,
ReplyDeletethank you for your information
Good for a bull
Like i say ...I expect a big time rally and dollar will be in weak trend
@preditor
ReplyDeleteSorry if my anylsis have cause some poeple to struck in the market last , which I believe that the trading trend will reverse sooner then anyone expected ..
no need to excuse.. everyone is responsibel for his own decisions..your analysis are great..shortterm market timing is very difficould..beeing right there every time almost impossibel..we had a 7month uptrend..the air is getting thinner..
Pred,
ReplyDeleteI hope you are right about the rally. It is hard to see the market reverse again today. Well, I'm going to stick to my post and hope Allen is wrong that the market correction is sooner than later. I think the gold prices and dollar weakness says one last gasp for equities. We will see......
@shirley hm i have no clue where we going..euro/dollar hasnt decided jet.. no new low no new high..just moving sideways in a trading range
ReplyDeletebut most times for a really big correction u need first the small traders to go long thats not the case yet hm difficould
hehe preditor almost had i writen u bitch hehe
ReplyDeletehope the grains close with high than that could draw lots of attention rising prices more buyers and so on...
How do you guys feel about going long canada dollar and long aussie dollar? A lot of hedge funds are in this trade but I don't know where they got in. Obviously these currencies will trade with the broader trend in commodities (i.e higher oil is good for canada dollar, ect.)
ReplyDelete--OG
“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give
ReplyDeleteup trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the
most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock
traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a
concrete highway across the continent.”
Lefevre
hm i stoped trading currencys at moment, not the easy game that it was a few month ago..look at euro dollar moves sideways at moment look at pound who guessed it can rally big time against euro..incredibel volatility at moment good for scalpers i like more swing trades..
hm stops were hit to protect small profit in grains..dollar broke trendchannel to downside..
ReplyDeletekeeping my miners..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI don't think so ...
it is tricky ..... the grain will regain strength
How is everyone doing..
ReplyDeleteOG,
ReplyDeleteCanada have good value, plus canada is resource which it a good currency if there is bull in commoditiy
Pred,
ReplyDeletebreakout on Gold today, Do you think Silver can go to $18+, may be $20/oz? :)). Hey Oil doesn't go up much like Gold & Silver do ? Why, huh ? Any target for Oil ?
Anthony
Preditor-
ReplyDeleteGreat day. Anyone investing in metals is smiling. Decoupling is before our eyes no? Dollar was up, but metals went way up too! I sold my oil and bought more leveraged gold. I'm thinking canada dollar might be a bit too tied to oil right now, and I think oil will not easily get past 80, while gold has more room this year at least. Money managers are very bullish on gold, there is less than 1% short activity I read
-OG
Just give oil time ...
ReplyDeleteShould follow up soon ...
I think the price for silver and gold will o to a new high .. which good for my position 40% invest in gold silver and miner
;)
Hey you are right. Oil will move too! Amazing how gold is still moving. I hope we may new highs in silver next week. HL beat earnings by a lot (.09 to .00 estimated). Can go far in this cycle.
ReplyDeletehm hard to imagine what gold doing if finaly dollar getting weaker again..or do we see the new risk aversion trade buying gold dont know..
ReplyDeletehm grains was to much leverage..unlucky that dollar strength triggert stops..
but interresting hows playing out at moment..we talked about 2 weaks ago about possibel dollar strenghts..
Pred,
ReplyDeleteNatural Gas ? Anybody wants to buy?
I bot Natural gas, reversing trade
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletei bot Nat.Gas at 4.830 yesterday. Anyone here thinks gas go up? I think can go up to its resistence at $5.00-$5.30. Hey, what is the target for Crude Oil ? It's at $80 bucks already now... So, how? $100, huh ? :))
These mkts are really nuts, keep going upward.
Anthony
hm so my plan for the next days weeks..theirs some chance of seeing a double top euro/us 1,51
ReplyDeletewhen this levl reached will start building short position in dax, dax should be around 5700 then..if first 1,44 breaks i have to go short earlier..
trend of higher highs and higher lows in dax broken..
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteHow is everyone is doing ....
Allen, if tomorrow the Fed annouce something like no rate hike statement ... then i think the euro will break 151 and go forward to 153 area ...
This is not yet a sell market , market is overdone the run up some be strong one so don't short @ 5700 ... maybe try higher position ...
-----------------
Treasury annoncement made 81 billion bond sales next week, this should not have any impact on the market .... so should give a peace of mind to the bull ...
I will still looking for opportunity to short bond .... miss this one ...
@ Shirley
Congrat to your postion ...
Buy on dip is a tought call as the sentiment will create a bearish feeling ...
When compare between short and long .... buy on dip is more tought call then short from the top ...
----------------
@OG
I alway stick to the trend base on the macros changes so I am quite confident on the call I made ...
When time to be bearish so I will change to bearish ,,,
------------------
Antony
If the Fed will do what ever it take to stimulas the economy by keeping low rate .... the the rally will last as long as it take too
hm long lasting trends try to change the way of thinking..lost my plan on the way up somewhere..missed short chance last week..
ReplyDeleteif euro/yen manages to rise another time to 138, there i see a perfect short opportunity this pattern worked 3 times in past..
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurjpy/1440/
iam not saying i short commos.. we have seen maybe some new riscaversion trade, when stocks get beaten put money in commos when stocks look cheap some money will go back weaken commos alittle..
Thanks Pred,
ReplyDeleteI have to give you some credit as HL and NG did very well.
Some of the stocks I had sell orders on were hit but others were not.
From what I read you are thinking the dow will go a little higher but I haven't seen more than two positive days on dow is some time????
Pred,
ReplyDeleteGold and silver is high but with dollar weakness it should go higher, right? Too high to buy right now tho.
From here, what is the best commodity to buy?
Anthony, you think nat gas and you may be right with Congress voting on energy bill that is good for gas.
But I think I might like soft commodities better. What do you think is a good entry, Pred.?
Props to OG and Pred for large gold and silver positions. My position was 20%. Building confidence so can't put too much in one thing.
Lots of volatility for the last few days and low volume. I will have to sell the rest of my stocks (except metals and softs) tomorrow as I don't like the feel of the market. Pred, any feel for the high of the day tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteim still hanging in there with metals but i'm concerned that some retracement may be coming. On the other hand, it may just be best to hang onto these positions for a few weeks. im thinking its a good idea to wait.
ReplyDeleteOG
hey preditor, i have 135k to invest. i am trying to figure out where to put it so that i can maximize gains in the short term and medium term.
ReplyDeletechris
OG
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts are the same as yours with gold and silver. I believe with dollar weakness, there is more profit on the table but the timing???.
Most commodities are correcting some during Asian markets.
Great article on corn harvest.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/170794-crops-headed-for-a-tough-harvest?source=hp
Hi Chirs.
ReplyDeleteBuy soft commodity should be a good in short -mid -long term bet ...
At ccurrent price you night think of start to accumlate some and buy into another dip... the soft bull is still young ..
One thing you have to be prepare, if you are not good at timing, if there is any sell off, don't let the market force you into sell ... Always add position when there is dip
Pred,
ReplyDeleteHave you taken any profits on gold or silver?
Hi shirley,
ReplyDeleteI have not yet take profit ...
I thought of gold..... india buy 200 tonne of gold from IMF @ average price of 1045 so that mean that the central bank find it is reason to pay for gold at this level ...
I think the floor or the new base price will be 1020 - 1040 range so I think any dip is buying opportunity ...
possible first target to cash out @ 1150.00
preditor, don't you think gold is a bit to high to add now? i hate to buy something at all time highs.
ReplyDeletechris
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteYes it is now at high price when compare to when I first add the gold @ 980 ...
But if you ask me I would sell gold now. My answer is no cause I find it still have room to move up ...
Anyway, chasing the market on the uptrend is dangerous ... if you comfortable you can wait and buy on dip ..
Soft commodity is still laging ..might be a good opporunity
TXIC just announced they will post earnings on Tuesday. Already up 5% but still below 5x trailing p/e.
ReplyDeleteyeah, i agree, gold has room to move up.
ReplyDeletebuy on rectracement.
Anthony
hm so today want to rebuy corn..hope some volatility leeds to a retest of that 370 levl..
ReplyDeletestill holding my miners ..80% cash at moment euro..
hm next week another record treasury auction but lots of that long runing stuff and tips..
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI think next week auction will not have much mpact like it used to as it is only 81 billion and there is still some trade war between china and USA ...
So china will do something trick here ...
So this time the auction will be abit different, I will look to short bond...
It seem like the oil has lose some shine hmmmm ...
I have some thought regarding the trade war between China and USA .... will complete the my view on this issue this weekend ... it is quite a big thing to follow up .... for now, be prepare to start pile your invest in gold and silver on dip ...
ReplyDeletetechnically oil should do well too ... but the price still staggering
ReplyDeleteGold is responding well to the poor employment number. Predictor may be right that the gold run still has some room before retrace. Grains were weak yesterday b/c of dollar but mainly b/c of good weather which allow for corn harvest. Careful here, if weather stays good corn may retrace more. I'm setting stop at 367. The wet weather make farmers spend more money on drying each bushel which is good for prices.
ReplyDeleteOG
OG ...
ReplyDeleteI will dig more into this but the world supply is what is more important ...
I will still confident in soft commodity .... news is news reality is what will make the run up ....
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI will be very interested to hear your comments on China.
Yesterday, CMTP had some manipulation and I bought at 5.45.
I think there was a trap. Earnings come out next week.
thx og for the warning..
ReplyDeleteiam not in hurry with buying..price is fighting around my target at moment..
@preditor
looking forward for ur analysis on this tradewar..
hm i really dont understand who on earth buys this long running treasuries..is like getting killed without giving some fight..than this tips stuff does anyone really expect a inflation hedge from them..
my belief is that gold mining stocks have some catching up to do. Assuming that stock market should remain stable, gold miners will perform. I dumped DAG today, and added RGLD which is ready for takeoff. Its a neat company since its royalty based rather than based on mining/labor. Still have my HL, GG.
ReplyDeleteOG
OG,
ReplyDeleteCould you perhaps explain what it means to be royalty based.
Thanks.
they make gold discoveries and then collect a percentage of the profits from whoever is operating the mine, for example barrick or goldcorp. Thus they dont have to worry about fixed costs that the miner themself does; i.e cost of digging the stuff. Anyways, there ia a lot of upside for all these gold and silver mining stocks. A lot of them are leveraged 3:1 to the price of the metal; i think a lot of these stocks will double within 12 months. I locked in gains today, will reenter next week.
ReplyDeleteOG