What is the dollar bubble and dollar inflation era?
It is a period of all the accumulated dollar in the past 30 years begining to unwind + unlimited dollar supply added to the economy byUS Central government. This will be the world greatest economy structural change and will change what we have learned in the past as the past is always link to dollar, the alot of things will slow break away from dollar domination. The proccess had already began and will be more aggressive for time to come so be prepare to defy what you have learn and how trading used to be ..
How will the dollar get bubble and the dollar unwinding will impact market generally ..
Let talk way of winding dollar.
Like China and Brazi buy imf bond, China spend US$50 billion dollar to buy IMF which mean the accumulated dollar have being inject to the economy, then come the Brazil which announce to purchase US$10 Billion worth of US dollar so the past two weeks 60 billion us dollar being inject, the result more dollar in the economy.
To make thing worse we have Fed keep printing money to spur the economy..
I will try to cover more on this in my future article.
On Friday, the market preparing for some correction as we are entering the treasury auction period which usually the dollar will strength as fund are prepare to do auction and bond will again strength.... Now the Friday data, if jobless is it is positive or meet expectation , I believe the market will also go down ... but it miss expectation great time and I believe the real unemployment will be more then reported ... Fund which prepare to do the auction got spook, that why we see the bond and dollar get unwind .... so this is how we got rebound equity worldwide.
So this week, will be something difference, the equity will be in smooth sail rally throught the weekend .. Aloca will beat expectation as I have go over the economy data for the past two month, we do have good number in housing in July and August plus short term spur in car sales from the cash for clunker program , so there should not be a problem for aloca to make news high which will set mood for the the equity market.
This is what I will likely to occurs in short term may will last throughout next week ... have to see hot the market movement before my next investment mood.
1) we will see the a price spike in all asset class and equity we make see all this asset class and equity make new high .. This will fast and furious so got to hold tight..
2)Dollar got sold compare to other currency
The rebound will continue at least the next 2 - 3 trading session if of course the aloca do the trick ..
Please feel free to post your inquiry or would like exchange idea ... Hope to create a great learning center for everyone .. not technical analysis but the real market mover idea ..
Good trade every one
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
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On Monday I made recommedation on Aloca AA, it is moving up nicley so I believe this one will make new high soon ..
ReplyDeleteUpdating trading status (2nd of october)
ReplyDeleteRe-enter position
Mine stock
GG @ 38.20
Silver HL @ 4.05
Silver @ 15.90
Gold @ 987
50% of the invest
oil position unchange @ 69.59 10% and added 68.90 10%
Still short treasury @ 102.52 (20%of total short) 103.60 (80% of the short position)
Still holding
Wheat and corn 25% of my fund
Wheat
Decem contract @averge 459 ( 463 & 452)
March Contract @ average 482 ( 493 & 472)
Corn
@December average @ 330 ( 345 & 315)
@March average @ 346 ( 358 & 334)
Also have small position in AA @ 13.00 on early trading session but just 3% of my fund ...Almost all my fund is invested ...
ReplyDeleteHope everything go as I have anticipated :)
AA is yesterday early in the trading session position
ReplyDeleteShirley,
ReplyDeletethank you for your compliment on word in the comment of yestersday ...
Hi Robert... if you are here ..
Good day Anthony ...
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeletedollar strong support at 75? Do you think it will hold & bounce up or stop in congestion for few weeks? I think, dollar will stop go down at 75 for a week or so, then continue to go down. Won't go up a lot. This dollar's decline makes other markets become complicated. For example, since we have big unemployment figures, Copper should move down. But, the dollar is holding it up, thus it becomes a choppy... Anyway, i'm still placing my short at high place. Hey, your gold do well, good for you. No, i haven't bot gold yet, i sold it too early took my profit. Will go back in later. Wheat start to go up, still choppy move. May be many markets will go choppy mode when dollar stop going down at 75-76 level. I hope go down a bit so i can buy more.
Anthony
Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI sold RBY and HL on Monday. Drat!
I have NG still. Would be interested in asking what is a good re-entry point.
The one reason I hate being in the dollar happened today, but I am also thinking the rally can't last - as you say it is not a one way street. However, since you have been right more than anyone else, I will not sell anything else this week even tho I am going out of town Thurs. and Fri.
I am looking forward to earning season as I tracked stocks that disappointed in Aug. and the ones I liked and followed all had rebounds - ZOLT, FRPT, RINO, RST, EJ.
I plan to share those stock selections on this site as I do not like to only be a recepient of trading ideas.
To the best of all good trades.
Anthony,
To our combined success -as a trading community - together.
Shirley
hi preditor
ReplyDeletegrats to your trades..i lost my nerves today and sold my goldmining etf at 1020..and now 1042 and still looks bullish..
Hopefully comex survives this goldrush stuffed with tonnes of naked shorts.. or will this be the black swan event..
Iam with you this could go straight up for a few days..than maybe lots of this perma bears are finaly turned into bulls and its getting really dangerous..i dont know if i buy next dip..
Hi Everyone ..
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comment ...
I will start some analysis before updating... will be back
Allen
it is ok if you sell with profit ... no one got right 100% .. but it is 1000% better if you sell because of cut loss . ...
I will be back for more update
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteI bought MDM a few weeks back at 2.43 as a lark - very small position. Never any news on this stock that I can find, at least, but it keeps going up - my intuition says this company, which is in partnership with DeBeers has found some diamonds.