With the dollar weak trend intact, it seem the equity market will enter the next bull faster then anticipated ...
On Friday I thought the dollar will gain short term momentum with equity in short term pressure for the a few trading session ...
Today the equity should be in consoildation period, recommend to wait for another trading session to buy on dip ...
Oil and nat gas might high then current price, I suspect the oil and nat gas rally come with hidden agenda, which i have make some research on this ...
Please don't short the precious metal oil and commoditites market as this might be the begining of the upleg I suspect this will go wild before the settle down ..
Will be back for extended commentary
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Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteI am confused. Did you say to short precious metals? If the dollar is weak wouldn't precious metals go up?
Hope you have a great trading week.
Oops..
ReplyDeleteI mean don't short...
hi all,
ReplyDeletehm monday sold my oil stock omv(think jesse livermore turns around in grave), thought could buy back cheaper...
corn does great,looks like free game want to add more in next days..
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteThis market is shooting straight up. I have orders in for some stocks but not sure they will get filled at the price I'm bidding. We'll see......
Hi Allen and hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteThe equity look stronger then anticipated .. I think we are preparing for the next upleg...
This news look interesting , Pimco planning to enter stock .. so a bullish to equity
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asVZ4H_OvVH8
I have add alot of thing on friday, so my fund is almost filled ... waiting to cash out all position
ReplyDeletei think there is still good value for soft commodities ...
ReplyDeleteCorn , wheat , soya soil bean
What is a conservative target for grains by end of the year? I'm looking to have a place to park the dollar when I sell stocks and right now I put it in CNY (yuan) - not to make money but just not be in the dollar if it freefalls. If grains are conservative, then I will perhaps use the etf, JJG.
ReplyDeleteshirley
ReplyDeleteyou mean wheat
Hi Pred, The etf, JJG has wheat, corn and soybeans.
ReplyDeleteBtw, your friends on hms website miss you.
For myself, I'm glad you established this site as I do not really understand all their technical analysis. Good for them, but tough for others to follow.
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI don't want to sent a conflict signal to the HMS blog...
They are more to Technical side and I don't play with technical...
So don't want to change the blog style ..anyway ... it is the profit that count ...
:)
Personnel I don't like to play with eft,althought the swinging is more powerful then the commodities it self ..but is will do no harm too I think if it play with it set up objective
ReplyDeleteYuan will be a good long term holding currency , you will be very safe in short,mid to long....
Hi Anthony and Bob, Robert, Daniel ...
ReplyDeletethis look worrison to crude oil ... hmm... if oil have storage probelm we might some pressure on the oil price ...
ReplyDeletePlease take note on this news .
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=anBT7WOceKww
One of the reason, I am more bullish on precious metal then to oil is because of oil storage issues
My style is much like yours. I don't like etfs either but I'm not in the futures or currency markets yet so I;m limited.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts today are that I think car batteries are going to be a big thing. I'm planning to add to CMTP or for caution, buy HPJ as another battery stock.
TLR is up 20% today with no news. That always makes me more interested.
The other play I'm very interested in is to find Asian stocks that are not on the NASDAQ or AMEX but are trying to list 'up'.
The stock I am researching right now is LTON. I have a bid in but will probably wait til tomorrow.
hm yes in oil u never know, twistet between dollar weakness and oversupply..
ReplyDeletemost trade oil that way, put a euro/dollar chart and a oil chart on one chart..oil always comes back to euro/dollar line..sometimes it overshoots sometimes when market want to see oversupply it breaks down..
one fundamental explain for this could be petrodollar, the oilexporters buy much more stuff in asia and europe so this contrys get dollaroversupply..that pressures dollar even more..that pressures oilprice to upside..more petrodollars..and so on
but knowing all this dosnt help much i never get the top or bottoms right..
wow look at gold, so many were waiting for a pullback to 1030 around, now they can chase the price..
ReplyDeletehm will be interesting week.. how long can this party go on, a lot of ewler are very bearish..
Allen,
ReplyDeleteYou and others are brave and have had good profit from oil. I can't understand it other than people are buying it to hedge the dollar.
Pred,
Do you see any pullback of equities today or tomorrow?
I am looking for an entry.
@shirley
ReplyDeleteall i wantet to say was, dont just look oil from supply demand, u could get to a situation where demand is low, but dollar loses so much purchasing power, oil exporters are paid in dollars,so that the price goes above 100 dollar...
if u are a oil exporter u wouldnt want to trade ur golden egg for the same amount of dollars...u would try to adjust the price to the purchasing power of the currency u are paid..there comes opec in play
markets try to anticipate, sometimes ignoring inventory numbers, like u said some may hedge against more dollar weakness..if dollar strenghtens in next weeks the have overpaid..
Shirley and Allen,
ReplyDeleteFrom my view, if oil does not have storage problem then it should be ok ..if not then there will be short term pressure in oil price in near the future
Any dip in corn or wheat, it a buy ... start accumulate when there is pull bak .. don't chase the market ..cause it the most dangerous move in investment cause you never know what is going to happen in the next trading session
Preditor1976:
ReplyDeleteI do like you style of investing, feet on the ground and eyes open. One thing thought, DJIA, SPX, COMP, SML, and RUT demonstrate an rising wedge pattern, which is quite bearish. That in combination with the locked in selling resistance starting at SML=345 and RUT=650 (on a daily three year chart) makes me feel that this bull will need to take a rest soon.
So right or wrong I sold the rest of my DIA also sold all my TEEMX monday. And started a very small position in DXD (2x short DJIA)and FXP (2x short FXI).
The one thing that is very dangerious about this american bull market is that it is mostly driven by the news and the trend not the fundimentals. I doubt there will be a sudden turn around in the jobs market fueling a sudden increase in consumption. But I do beleve that the "story" driving this market can change overnight.
The next big move may be to the 200 dMA. What are your thoughts? Thanks
** Shirley **
you mentioned that you don't hold cash in dollars but instead in Yuan. May I ask specifically how do you do that. The only way I know of is Everbank with a yearly limit of ~40 to 50K$. Thanks.
Bob G
Preditor1976:
ReplyDeleteHere is an interesting item about the price of oil in the future:
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=11609&pageid=22&pagename=Investigation
IMO the US et al are trying a backdoor approach to the question of Iran, regime change and destablizing activities. Because if they go to the UN for more santions, China will most likly veto. Push may come to shove farly soon, but nothing can be done until this bomb is ready, the current bunker buster are not powerfull enough. The article says next june 2010, but that is just propaganda. I am intrested in your thought relative to this item and what would be a good entry point for oil on a pull back. Thanks.
Bob G.
Preditor1976:
ReplyDeleteI will agree ahead of time on the role of the declining dollar. One thing though, if "they" change the news from bull to bad, and the typical investor sells stocks, in america that money will go into USD and equavilents, bonds et al. So the dollar can strengthen (short term). This scenario concerns me. Your thoughts are greatly appricaited!
Bob G
Bob G
ReplyDeleteThanx for your compliment ..
I will go over your question and post on the blog later ...
Sorry it being abit busy day for me ...
Thank and have a nice evening every one
Bob G.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like you may also be uncomfortable as me in being in the dollar. It is going lower as I write this post!
I have put some, but not all dollars into an etf, CNY. That is because I don't want to have all dollars when China tells the US it will no longer buy treasury notes or the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency.
The stock market will have to take a rest sometime for sure. Then, the US citizen who sells equities and holds their money in the $ risks a currency crisis. It is tricky and I don't have the answer.
Shirley:
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tip :)
Bob G
Hi Bob.
ReplyDeleteIt is also a wise decision to take some rest after a run, same for the stock ..if you have profit, put some rest .. I expecting consoildation period ....
For the stock, I don't think a deep the correct is due soon maybe another mild correction 2 -5 %... but I think there might be another run before the correction start . ....
I will extended my commetary on Shirley question in my new blog .. trying to fgiure out what to write ..