Hi everyone ,,
Yestersday the sentiment was very very bad which I expecting to last for the other 1 to 2 session ... if my thoery is right we should see a strong rebound soon if not today then tomorrow ...
US want china to balance trade, we can only balance trade with weak dollar, I expecting a second wave of housing problem for US$ somewhere next years, so the dollar will lost it shine ...
I am not dollar bull .... so I will play with my trend ...
Today I will buy hard into soft commoditiy and will add silver too , planning to short bond in today or tomorrow ,,, looking for the right timing ... oil is rebounding and I will keep the oil and wait and see until Monday session ..
Hope everyone trade will be grand today ...
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I still have my wheat amd corn intact I am expect a big time rally, I will add wheat , soya bean and corn today... not looking for the bottoming price . I will as always I will buy both december and march 2010 contract
ReplyDeletethere is so much problem to world food supply chain due to climate change ...
I have complete add my soft commoditiy position ..
ReplyDeleteAdd silver @ 16.35,I am fully invested .... miss the short hope make some profit from the rebound ...
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
ReplyDeletei'm long AUD.USD, EUR.USD, already in the money. Still short Coffee.
Anthony
hi all, i'm bull on softs too by loading some DAG yesterday....
ReplyDeleteMe too, I just bought DAG, DGP, AGQ, HL, GG, USO, and JAG over past two days. I am highly leveraged in metals now. I think we agree that commodities will continue rally from here. I hear a lot of talk about how better than expected economic data will propel the market and keep the risk trade going. I want to go long CAD vs the USD soon too, and short treasuries. I like TBT at 43 if it gets there.
ReplyDeleteAs You all might notice, I have stop make call on equity ... the next time I will do is only short side for equity althought I knoew the bull I think the market is setting the biggest bull trap in the equity , hope every one take of this ...
ReplyDeletewhat a day after this dollar explosion got really busy..also bought corn,wheat 30% invested..
ReplyDeletehm watching euro/dollar ema52 1,4780 should this levl hold..could be more than dead cat bounce if breaks i sell the stuff..
hm preditor u also think in a bear market sooner or later stocks should go down to singel digit pes..
ReplyDeletehm must look i have something funny from goldmann big market cycle analysis..
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteyeah, i agree with you on bull trap on stocks
Anthony
The equity cycle is divided in 4 distinct phases
ReplyDeleteThe equity market moves in cycles. In order to develop a frame of
reference for investors, we show how the cycle from one peak of the
market to the next is divided into four distinct phases, which we
describe as: Despair, Hope, Growth and Optimism.
1. The Despair phase is defined as the period where the market moves from its peak to
its trough. This correction is mainly driven by P/E-multiple contraction as the market
anticipates and reacts to a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and its
implications in terms of lower future earnings.
2. The Hope phase is typically a short period (on average 10 months), where the market
rebounds from its trough through multiple expansion. This occurs in anticipation of a
forthcoming trough in the economic cycle as well as future profit growth and is
leading to a local peak in the trailing P/E multiple. We define the end of the Hope
phase as this local peak of the trailing P/E multiple.
3. The Growth phase is a typically longer period (on average 33 months), where
earnings growth drives returns. We define the end of this period to be when multiple
expansion again starts to provide a larger proportion of the returns than earnings
growth.
4. The Optimism phase is the final part of the cycle, where returns driven by P/Emultiple
expansion outpace earnings growth, thereby setting the stage for the next
market correction.
they think we are in stage 2..is european market..dont know if they really that bullish they might need another bailout soon hehe
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteIt has been busy for me today. Great day, too for market. Hope to have one or two more days of gains and then, hope to sell and do more in soft commodities and a few day trades. Also, I bought and sold oil for small gain. (I hate oil tho - bothers me that inventories are high). Added DBA, RJA today. Sorry to be too chicken to add to CMTP yesterday as it went up 26% but still own so I'm glad it's up.
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the big picture review on the economic cycle and other helpful trading strategy.
Good luck to everyone. watch those bull traps -I have my stops in place. :)
@shirley
ReplyDeletewrite this more to myself hehe, always when things working great for a while falling back doing all this stupid things..
but i can recoment u some great good books also have them on pdf..
Trading Manuals-Joe Ross
Trading buy the book-Joe Ross
Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends
Livermore, Jesse - How To Trade In Stocks
Way of the Turtle
Henry Hazlitt - Economics In One Lesson
Hi Allen,
ReplyDeletethank you for your sharing here ....
Ok, where do we go from here ?
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteThe way you invest and did not add position the day before is not call chicken.. it is just that you are not confident to take the risk .. this happen to all investor so you need to develop the experience to make these call in the most the depress price ...
Precautions is good ... it is not a bad things ...
I am confident to take risk base on my develop trend... I always do bad very time I do not do what I original planned to do ... which cause missed opportunity in the investment ..
Today sentiment is look pretty weak ...
ReplyDeleteHow is everybody thought, let do brain sharping today ...
We can learn something today in here ..
Today up or down for Equity and commoditiy... anyone here?
I think we will go up today ...
ReplyDeleteDollar will resume weakness ,,,
Should we short bond?
I will see if today is a opportunity to short bond
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteThese are my thoughts over this past week or so. The volatility is so great that I do not want to have a specific mindset. I put as many stoploss in order so as not to go on emotion. I am trying to reduce positions and think in general the risk versus the reward is not promising. I have thought about Jim Rogers who bought a year ago in Oct. and Nov. and waited through March for the market to turn up. He said when there is forced liquidation, and if you buy after this liquidation, you always make money. I had hoped (see, we are phase two) for another day of gains but now I have to think about my next moves. Soooo, risk vs. reward. That is my thought today. Also, the weird trend lately is the market goes down on Fri and up on Monday?????
As far as bonds, real estate is looking to go into its worse three months of sales so usually interest rates go down on RE loans, more loans will reset in 2010 causing more forclosures, the low of the year for short bonds in 08 was in late Dec. On the other hand, the case for shorting bonds is the US is printing money, China or ? may stop buying treasuries, and the govt will probably renew the tax credits to buy houses.
Place some short on bond @ 101.53
ReplyDeleteFirst thing there Fed backstop will be in the economy for a while, just the BOE just extend the bond purchasing program ....
ReplyDeleteI beleive US will restart the bond buying program again ...we will see ...
In the equity, I recommedation mcdonnald, catpillar, apple, Hp and ibm, and all stock which have strong global band and have large present in all country... and don't forget the commoditiy related stock, these are the stock which will do well in the dollar weak trend and risk free...
But commodity and precious metal will be the best place to safe guard your money ...
ReplyDeleteI don't think US will be good with strong dollar ...The trend is there and It really make no sense to me that the dollar should rally hard so other can sell
ReplyDeleteThanks Pred, You are right, with experience I will be able to buy when markets are very depressed. I think GS triede to accumulate shares on Wednesday when they said their GDP forecast was lowered.
ReplyDeleteI was stopped out of many orders today and will wait til next week. I'm confused tho in your thoughts - you saying that there is a bull trap being set and now, you are recommending some equities???
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the book recommendations. I will check some of them out.
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteis it time to add more Silver & Gold ?
Anthony
hm in longer timeframe charts dollar weakness still ok, sure lot of trendlines have broken..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
hm i will wait until dollar buttons and,breaks yesterdays low or todays high to get market direction for the next days..
always this end of month days..
Pred,
ReplyDeletei add more long Silver today just now, at 16.20
Anthony
Disappointed that the market took out almost all my stops especially HL and RBY which I really didn't want to sell but want to eliminate emotions so I think in the long run these stops are a good plan. The market this week drove me crazy.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for all....will the pattern for commodities and stocks going up together be broken? In other words, could dollar weaken and not have stocks go up?
hey Shierly,
ReplyDeletedollar should be weakened
Anthony
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteThen, are you saying stocks will go up and we are not in a bull trap?
Shierly, Pred,
ReplyDeletei add long Wheat at 494 just now.
hope wheat & stocks go up tomorrow?
dollar should go weak, that's what i think...
if not, i have my stops in place.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletelooks like tomorrow mkts can pick up?
i am sticking to my gun on my long silver, long Wheat, long gold, short coffee, long Euro, long AUD, etc...
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletemarkets reverse.
Anyone bot Wheat, Soybeans, more Gold & Silver ? Hope tomorrow mkt go up more ?
Anthony
I bought HL at 3.98.
ReplyDeleteStill not sure if the market will go up Monday.
Selling rout we have today doesn't affect Gold that much, still at $1040+
ReplyDeleteAnthony
hehe i know the saudis want my gold thats why iam not selling...
ReplyDeletehm maybe to early to say its new trend after one day but i watch it..
find this a very interresting market pattern in curency crossings..
compare the two charts euro/yen and euro/dollar
every time euro yen hits 138..bounces back u get a dollar strenght.. market corection and so on..last time euro yen bounced back from 200mva 130,5 and 130 strong support line..
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/
http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurjpy/1440/
so we could still have some downside but worst should be over..will try to get some kind of trade around this levls with stops if all goes wrong and crushes through 200mva and 130support..
Hi everyone ...
ReplyDeleteHold on to all comodity ...
I expecting a big run ....