Today data ready bad which did bode well for the bull for the next 2-3 trading session... And there will be another Treasury Auction next week another US$78 billion, so there another US$78.00 will be pull out of the market.
Anticipate short term pressure in equity and all asset class ...
however Gold is holding out well same for oil in the even of dollar strengthing.. may be I will reenter my long gold and silver earlier tomorrow is I see signal change in Gold.
Quite bullish going forward for gold and oiol including silver ....
Ok will be back for more update
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletei bot Dollar index at 76.60. Dollar had an upside breakout yesterday at 77.39-77.40, breakout from downtrend line since March 2008's high. This is a BIG event... , it should keep going upward, i think. Nobody saw it, nobody thinks it can go up let alone has a breakout. I am short Crude oil, short Heating Oil, short Soybeans, short USD.JpY (yen stronger than dollar), Long USD.CAD (oil continue to go down), Long USD.CHF (gold going down), short Live Cattle; waiting Dollar to roll down, still got upside way to go, it can go up to at least 80 before rolling back down.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletei add more Short on Crude Oil today at 70.20, it can breakdown lower than 65.50
Anthony
I think the dollar will gain short term momentum ,
ReplyDeleteAnthony don't forget to take profit from time to time , US can no longer support strong dollar
You have to take profit from time to time ... I have a feeling the strong dollar will be short life
Yestersday sold almost all my position, 70% of my fund is waitiing for opportunity to re-enter position
Gold is still hold up well .... I will wait for opportunity to go probably today or next trading session ...
I will cover short in S&P later today and will update the position in my blog
Pred,
ReplyDeleteyou wake up v early. Thanks for profit warning. I think Dollar still go up more in next few weeks, not days. Target at least 80. I am bearish on Oil, should go down lower than $65. If you're not comfortable with declining Gold & Oil, because of this & that, bonds, debt, the fed printing money, etc.., then just watch or take vacation. This will take a while, not days. A lot of people will be surprised Dollar moves up, nobody noticed we had Dollar break out its downtrendline yesterday, nobody wants to believe Oil can go down a lot due to rising dollar. Look at USD.CAD, it's going upward, but oil still high at $70, hehehehe. Small traders still bidding up Crude Oil & Heating oil like no tomorrow, hoping it go up to $75... :-) Even HMS don't want to short Oil, i asked him yesterday, he kept quiet. Want to go Long on Gold? You better check first at USD.CHF downtrend line... it's going to have a breakout, meaning gold down. Yet, everybody thinks gold will go up to $1500 this year. Also check USD.EUR, it's going to break its uptrend line, meaning gold down. Everything is controlled by Euro & Dollar. I absolutely agree with you, gold will eventually go up. But, the timing is When-?? I don't think it can go up a lot this month. Better short Oil first.
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteyou see today's Dollar reversal? Man, incredible. Can't believe it can go down so fast. I now trade gold & oil using dollar's direction. Got cought shorting gold today, i get out quick. Now what? Oil to $75? Dollar broke down 77 level today. Everything will rally
Anthony
Have to manage something, Just back to my computer,
ReplyDeleteI buy alot of thing today
I will be back to update my position ...
From today data, I think the S&P will go down again, still holding to the short @ 1038 ...
ReplyDeleteShorting bond, dollar
Long Gold and silver
Long Mining Stock ....
While this not bode for the US equity and dollar and bond ...
Will update the position .....
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletei got shocked today going Long Dollar. It reversed down so fast, i freezed me up, lucky i put a Stop. From now on, i only want to go Long Gold & Oil, Short Dollar !!!
You went short Dollar? At what price??
Hey do you know, we have a huge Commercials go LONG dollar, HUGE LONG on commercials. Should we be careful shorting dollar ??? i told Jim Sinclair about this, he told me, Commercials will get killed.
U short dollar? What price/?
Anthony
Mine stock earlier position
ReplyDeleteMine stock GG @ 38.20
Silver HL @ 4.05
Silver @ 15.90
Gold @ 987
50% of the invest
oil position unchange @ 69.59 10% and added 68.90 10%
Short treasury @ 103.6 Medium position will short more if the treasury still gain strength.
Now I still not sure if the S&P will recover due to dollar weakeness ... But will be a bear for the time being ....
ReplyDeletehope everyone load some commoditites stock
Pred,
ReplyDeletei'm confused which way Oil & Dollar go.
My computer says Oil down, Dollar up
so, i put back my oil short, long dollar
i don't know..
i'm good at monkey see, monkey do.
I am too dumb to figure it out, let my pc do
Anthony
Technical this is demage repair .... there is treasury auction going on next weekend ... today really frighten the bond bidder ...
ReplyDeleteToday data only telling me a few one thing there will more stimulus package added to economy down the road and there will more treasury auction for time to come ...
QE will be extended for quite some time and Fed will not increase rate anytime soon like also of the dollar bull anticipated ...
This is what I think
Pred,
ReplyDeletenot clear... Do you mean, you also like Dollar? U bullish on Dollar, is it right?
Dollar had a breakout last night, are you aware of this ? Please clarify.
Anthony.
Based on what you say, the dollar will not recover as everyone thinks.
ReplyDeleteRegarding shorting treasuries, many people including you are shorting treasuries, but housing sales usually decline during the winter and interest rates go down. What is your time frame regarding your treasury position?
There will an attempt to repair dollar in short term as there will treasury going next weekend ... whether it will succeed or not I do not know ... I am not a dollar bull in fact I am quite bearish on dollar ..
ReplyDeleteThe break out in the dollar last night is because some of the fund start to pull ou of the market and preparing for next treasury auction that is why we see a strong dollar break out
So, you think, Dollar may or may not go up by next week because treasury auction? They will try to repair dollar?
ReplyDeletebut in 1 week time, you're not sure dollar can continue rally? Then it's not wise to buy Oil & Gold today or tomorrow, then?? Is this right?
Anthony
Hi Shirley,
ReplyDeleteI short treasury is because on the supply and not due to seasonally.
in the end the treasury will give up again due supply and QE ... I believe that the governemnt add more stimulas package infuture more then we anticipated which also mean Treasury will have to auction more bond ...
To make thing worse China also start to issue Yuan bond which will have a long term effect on US bond .
Regarding to the time fame ... I think we will see some weakeness start next week ...
And it seem like the equity will rally due to dollar weakeness as bond begin to be underpressure ... this is not bode well for next treasury auction ..
I will cover my short S&P for now @ 1027 and might add short at higher position or go long .. will have to see the clearer signal before taking position in the S&P
Anthony ,
ReplyDeleteI would prefer hold long in gold then to short gold..
Dollar might go up in short term or go down tomorrow , My guese is as good as your... I will play with trend which I think the dollar will be under pressure ... I will not go long in Dollar ..
For oil itself can act as short term store value , as long as oil do not have storage problem the oil should make quick rebound.
Taking some long in the S&P @ 1028
ReplyDeleteI think we are going up from here ....
ReplyDeleteAnticipating rebound later today ...
ReplyDeleteadding long @ 1027
ReplyDeleteYou were right. Dollar going down.
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeletei want to ask you, are you aware that we have a record positions carried by Commercial on Dollar Long ? RECORD Long... This fact makes me uncomfortable shorting dollar at this level, adding to my confusion. So, i just watch, not sure. Does this information bothering you or make you unsure which way dollar will go next ?
You do know, Commercials are rarely wrong over time...
Anthony
Shirley ...
ReplyDeleteMarket is hard to predict, sometime I am right and sometime I am wrong ... Do I make some bad call due to dad timing so I will try to invest and stick with the trend ..
I have wrote about this is my previous blog
http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/09/so-many-conflict-news-and-signal-what.html
Hope this will be some help
Pred,
ReplyDeletemy Soybeans do well, i take profit today. Hey, this Dollar is very confusing to me. So, i did many Options positioning. I do well with Options, terrible with outright positions. I wait for your next newsletter. Cheers, have a nice weekend
Anthony