Hi all those who are new in my blog, before jump into my daily conclusion, it will be great to follow up my reading at least 2 week back ..
Anyway, I think I might start to buy some oil and gold in today trading session, silver and might add more soft commodity.
Will update in my blog ..
Should be interesting day
Extended Commentary later today
Good trade everyone
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Hi Pred,
ReplyDeleteDollar may go up only 1 week or so, will be short lived rally. I shorted Oil, Coffee, NatGas, but put all my shorts breakeven stops, i'm afraid with spike up & plunge in dollar. Wheat broke its uptrendline today. Copper i think, about to reverse down in coming weeks?
Anthony
hm watching corn..hope to get it at 370 theirs a supportline and a trendline and 200mva.. atleast i know i have to run when this levl breaks down..
ReplyDeletehm wheat i dont know, dont like this trading under 200mva could find support at 100mva and supportline around 510..
but like always depends what dollar doing..will be interesting
Adding silver @ 16.81 medium line
ReplyDeleteAdding corn @ 373 december and March 386
ReplyDeleteadding oil @ 78.3
ReplyDeletebought corn turbo just low leverage 2,1 putting no stop today the always try to fish me *G*
ReplyDeletehm sold corn with small profit, dont like what dollar doing..
ReplyDeletehey pred- bought 1/2 position OIL @ approx.$78.50.. i think we are consilidating here and going up to $84/85 area soon
ReplyDeleteHi everyone,
ReplyDeleteBought txic @ 8.50 - A bargain @ 4.2x earnings, imho.
Tomorrow, I may buy more of cmtp as it also is trading at less than 5x PE.
Good trade to all :)
I mean I may buy cmtp if it also goes below 5x earnings.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought more of HL @ 4.26 and JJG @ 38.45.
We'll see.....
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteHope everyone is still hanging on well today ...
I like said today is an interesting day .....
The market will consoildation, but please beware on Wednessday or Thursday , I expect alot of action o sit on tight from here...
Might some profit of the oil again tomorrow ... I will update in the blog
hm wheat really surprised me didnt touch it in any direction but that big drop..try to get a hint what large traders are doing..still no update on timingcharts, if the continue to reduce their shorts or increasing..
ReplyDeleteHi Allen,
ReplyDeleteI see the wheat ....
Someone try to squeeze the market, I will add wheat maybe in tomorrow session..
We will see ...the depress might go on for another day ...
Predictor-
ReplyDeleteThe following is a schedule of all treasury auction announcement dates and actual auction dates themselves. Is this what you were looking for?
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf
It's good through February 2010.
J
thank you JJ for the link ...
ReplyDeleteIt is just that we do not know the size of the auction which is the most important, cause will then know the size of the pull back and the impact on the boarder market..
for example if the auction is 60billion then it should not be much impact on the market, if 100 billion..then there is medium impact etc ...
but thank you ...It ready help me in doing the investment strategy ...
hi pred..
ReplyDeletehm corn broke 370 iam short now cover at 372..euro looks very weak..hope is no trap
With the size of the treasury auction,
ReplyDeleteIt is no surprise for such a pull back on all asset class ..
Did not manage to take pofit fom oil earlier today got caught up today morning .... sitting on some lose from yestersday position.
I still hold 50% in cash ... looking to short treasury ...
Still waiting to buy but I might not be right this time..
During this type of dip it will kill your confidence .... but some time it will be real ... the market is hard to make a accurate call ...
I like to buy on dip .... so I will look for opportunity to buy more during the dip base on dollar weak trend...
Still not a buy .... steady on the side line
ReplyDeletelooks like big winner this week is anthony with all his shorts..
ReplyDeletehm just fighting to keep my bookloses eaven.. somehow cannot sell my miners i know the saudis waiting for them hehe..
also jumped on that short euro/jen train hope momentum carrys on for a few days down to 200mva
pred, just a question on your treasury auction short term pullback theory. isn't it that fixed income n equity desks are separated n each has its money pool? So the money flow doesn't really clashes...i mean we all hv seen bond n equity rally the same time...
ReplyDeleteYes, the shorts this week are the winners. I am hearing rumors (from Fresbie) that some big bank(s) may fail and the FDIC will not have the money. Will there be another Lehman? That rumor is the one that has me worried.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone else heard something like that? What are the implications for the dollar this time - same as with Lehman? If so, ouch.
Here are Fresbee's exact comments.....
ReplyDeleteguys...I dont know for sure..but there offhand rumours across the hedge fund industry of a possible bank shutdown FDR style. They believe banks are running out of cash and they just cannot let this go on.
I do not have a basis but far too many fund managers whom I know personally have voiced this fear that it is real danger now. I remember reading some article from some newsletter harry schultz that they had planned something of this sort in sept.
hm read some rumors..often the shorties try to get some around *G*,in this crysis america always gone the easy way..they cannot run out of dollars to save some banks or deposits think they will continue to print simply more..
ReplyDeleteiam more afraid of the dollar carrytraders if they start to put out their cash, and start buying dollars back..
Hi Mambo,
ReplyDeleteI think they used to.. but with world real economy slump and low interest rate ... technical you will see hot money jump around...
But everytime when entering treasury auction, is will always follow by correction in the market and the rate on correction will depend on the size of the auction .... This is my personnel assumption.
I this linkage for quite sometime, and have being invest for the past 5month is work quite will from me ..
=====
Let link Fed with Goldsach and other big player...
I think Goldman Sach and other big player is doing coordinating work with Fed here .... so the treasury auction will draw some short term interest from oversea if not dollar and treasury price technically will collasp faster then anticipated ..
Regarding Hedge fund with Freebee talk about , I think I came across something news where investor start to make redeemption fund as world stock recovery which force hedge to liquid position earlier in September ... will do some research on this ..
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about GS estimate of reducing GDP to 2.7% from 3%? Are we being set up?
I think we then get better than expected, ie 2.8-3.0%.
Did you buy today on dips?
Hey Pred, Allen
ReplyDeleteTreasury still no short, not yet. I also waiting to short. Yeah, my Shorts do well in oil, gasoline, Nat.Gas and Coffee too. I took all my profit on Wheat & Soybeans before they plunged. I should have shorted them... I didn't. I add my short on Crude Oil yesterday. Where to go from here? I don't no. I still short on Oil, looks like may go down a bit more. HMS hasn't covered his shorts either. Mkts can still bounce up from here, may be tomorrow??? I think we eventually go up continue to rally?? This is tough mkts to get right.
Anthony
Oh, i also short Silver at 17.420
ReplyDeletei missed shorting Gold, should short it last week. I've put a breakeven stop for Silver
Anthony
hm from all possibel things to short out there think corn was the worst one that i picked, this is not my week..coverd 50% shorts..
ReplyDeleteWe are below 50ma. I think we are either at the end of the consolidation or we are going much lower.
ReplyDeleteThis is really a global pull back.
What are your thought, pred and allen and everyone.
Anyone wants to buy Crude Oil at 77-77.50 ?
ReplyDeletei cover my short & go Long, hope it bounce up
Anthony
Hi Anthony,
ReplyDeleteyou bang your call right this which I congrat you. Although I close 65% of my position on friday and but did do what I normally do upon the amount treasury annoncement, Short the market due my tight schedule and have a lot of meeting and away from my computer.
I re-enter A bit early yesterday thought or reverse my position early today but was again I was held up . Guess not my day ....
I Add some oil at 77.2... Will try to sell in tomorrow trading . AnD will look to and will add more soft commodity in tomoorow
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
ReplyDeletedon't worry about it. Always put your stops. I go Long now on Crude Oil at 77.250, hoping to bounce up tomorrow if i get lucky. If not, then i have my Stop. I try to buy it at 77.0 but never got hit, so i raised my bid. Mkts are very tough to figure out now, i put many stops on my positions, i think they will get hit by tomorrow's bounce, may be?
Anthony
@shirley
ReplyDeletehm think will play it save watch markets,dollar..
if thers some kind of bounce shortcvering first ones will go long..thers a high chance at some point of a selloff from that bounce..some take profits others go short again..than the important thing where do you get next low.. crosses market under last low from bounce than u have high chance going short at that point..turns market bevor low from bounce and goes higher than bouncehigh go long..
if u act that way and put some stops u have a higher chance beeing right than reading all analyses and watching all news..market will tell u what to do..
GS was up to their tricks yesterday giving the markets a panic with their revised GDP. Actual number of 3.5%.
ReplyDeleteAllen, Thanks, I'll remember that.
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteI expect today or tomorrow be last day of depression, dollar will resume weak trend ...
I will buy hard today ...