For me , I am bear for dollar in short term and long term but I will changes my short term trend once the dollar make new low or go down abit more from this level ...
I was doing research , I come across this new at bloomberg below is the link ... this does not look good for dollar ..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar.LHONg7awQ ...
I will be back for more update
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Allen,
ReplyDeleteSometime I am wrong, but since I see the dollar problem and saw the trend what was coming, I adjust my trading to this trend and it work very well for me ...
I have gain more 200% for the past six month from my investment ..
But I still carefull with my investment , with the profit I got , I can invest more riskier like about 97% of more fund are invested now ..
ohh my god, 200%!!!
ReplyDeletetake some holidays i cannot get better..usually people start to do some crazy things after the have so many big winners..
nobody is always right or can predict future..think is not needed to make some money we trade what we see..therefor for me this bottomguessing or topguessing in dollar makes no sense.. i think we will know what to do when we see dollar rising with more than a 1% a day..
@anthony i have no idea about coffee,never done any reserch but its trading above 100 and 200mva usually this is bullish..and with that much cheap money all around i would be carefull to short comodities..at a start of maybe a big bullmarket there..only a very strong dollar could help your trade out i think
I think will look for opportunity to unload AA ... will update
ReplyDeleteAllen
ReplyDeleteit seem like I am on the right side of the trade every round most of the time .. I make difficult call ....
So it been a good run ... I prepare to take some rest but there still profit to take ...so I will be in the market abit longer ..
Anthony,
ReplyDeleteGenerally coffee commoditites is very good as the world consume more coffe then before ...
Play long should be safe ... I think the world is having weather like El Niño and will last throught 2010
below is the link
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
Long commoditites will do well from time to come
I have full committed my investment and so I did input the trading range .... as I just wait to cash out my position ...
ReplyDeleteshort dollar euro breakout!!
ReplyDeletehope havent jumped the gun, bought some short pound euro if it isnt a false breakout pound would be overvalud and should follow..
Stock to watch : UMC
ReplyDeleteShort pound euro should be ok
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeletehow far do you think this Gold mkt can go up before have meaningful correction? $1500?
Anthony
From what I see... The gold will try to form a base @ 1050 - 1060 range so I think the market might go to 1080 - 1090 range before pull back
ReplyDeleteMy guese is as good as your so let see how the gold play out tomorrow ..
ReplyDeleteGold & Silver is too overbot, daily stochastic is way overbot. I wrote a Call $1100 Nov. Gold Call, will expire by Oct.27, next 19 days, i am worry will hit $1100 by Oct.27 expiration date. thinking to cut loss
ReplyDeleteI never thought Gold can go up that fast.
Anthony
I bot Coffee, at 1.3770 just now.
ReplyDeletebad price? Too high? Shoot...
Anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeleteyour El Nino theory really works. Coffee, Soybeans on fire today. SoyMeal, SoyOil, all go up big time. Soybeans broke its long downtrend channel. Buy Soybeans?
Anthony
All my fund invested ... so now just waiting to cash out
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteCoffee hold at breakout level 1.3740, stay on its outside upper triangle. Wait for closing time. If so, it's a good sign for continuation of uptrend. MACD turns up also.
Anthony.
look like 10 yrs bond got sold big time ... thay should not well for dollar
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted with Soybeans. It's very trending market, when it goes up, it goes up very wildly, even more so than gold's. I think, beans are on fire now.
ReplyDeleteAnthony
10 year Note has not broken down its ascending triangle yet. can still go up again. Int. Rates mkts are very volatile, they are manipulated by the US goverment. Even i got the trend correct, but it has big fluctuations, my stops got hit many times, i end up with losing trades.. Don't want to trade Interest rates mkt anymore.
ReplyDeleteAnthony
The commodities are trading very wild lately .... I think we are in the first stage of commoditites bull
ReplyDeleteEL nino will support commodities
Hey Pred-
ReplyDeleteWhat is your exit on OIL? I had a very large position in @ about the same as you $69.. I sold half at $71.75 - I beleive we are going to do a small dip and then run for $75- what about you?
Hi Traderjoe,
ReplyDeleteBase on today treasury got sold, government deficit hit hitted record 1.4 trillion, I would said ... oil 75 is on card definitely
Now as the market is very speculative, I think the large pull back news for oil have occurred yestersday so from here on there should be a small pull back so I will still hold my position until at least 75. to play with small margine trade will cause sometime cause a missed in opportunity so I will not do pull back type of trade this time ..
Based on How Aloca beat market expectation on job cutting trend to make profit is quite worrison .. I think get into this somewhere next week ..
ReplyDeleteHey Pred,
ReplyDeleteI bot Wheat almost same price like yours. We had an important breakout 2 days ago, broke a long downtrend line on 10/06/09 at 460, trend since high June 02,09 at 722. Now, according to your theory, what next for Wheat & Corn ?
Do you think Wheat will go back down? Do you think this El Nino thing will fade next week?
I think we have a serious weather problems ahead, because ALL food mkts gone up, Soy,Corn,Wheat,Coffee,Cocoa,oat,etc.. What's happening with the weather? I thought this is a low probability event??? It can't be, can it?
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletetake a look at AUD.NZD, i place a buy at 1.2200 I think Austl's rates can go up higher. My EUR.CHF,EUR.JPY is doing fine. Looks like Soybeans can buy here at 890.0. My Coffee is fine. Hey, Crude Oil is moving up, higher.. no kidding. How can this happen? Weak economy, but oil go up. Copper also go up, they reported huge inventory at LME, like 5-6 months high, but copper keep rising. Pred, what are target price for our Wheat and Corn?
do you hear, they extension for jobless benefit? print more. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33230509/ns/politics-capitol_hill
ReplyDeletehey pred, are you shorting dollar here? Oh, i forgot to sign my name, the last 2 comments are mine too.
Anthony
Hey Pred,
ReplyDeletei think Wheat can explode next week. What do you think? Looks very strong. Harvest from Canada not good
Anthony
my gameplan today
ReplyDeletesold yesterday half short dollar euro..
2nd half stop at 1,467 i know is above the important trendline but want to save a small provit on 2nd half..
short pound euro
worked not out as i thought yesterday but still rising looks like free game..stop at 91,9
would consider buying if brakes 92,6 area and retest holds..
Hey Allen,
ReplyDeleteyou shorted Eur.GBP? I stay away from Dollar & Pound for now, they're v weak fundamentally & can bounce anytime, then go back down unpredictably. everytime dollar pop up, the whole world shorting it, not only traders, but all goverment on this planet want to short dollar... any bounce is very short live, i think? But, someday will rally big, just don't know when. I want to short Eur.GBP too, but, i scare, it may continue to go up & up, then suddenly go down, because their fundamental is very weak, keep printing money. put your stop
anthony
Pred,
ReplyDeletei see Crude Oil, Heating Oil & Gasoline are rising. But we usually have them go down during end of year, seasonal., how come they're rising?? From October to Dec. Crude usually go down, almost always. I am puzzle here. Gold's strength may push Crude hihger??
Anthony
@anthony
ReplyDeletehm i know is one of this crowded trades and will very likley explode same time dollar starts his big rally..like dollar funding currency now..
Was in this trade from time to time and think will be one of the best trades in the next jears to come...sure there will be times when pound rallys big...but will only use it to start another short pound trade
England is really dead broken, brawn isnt the man that solves real problems, like obama and bernanke, he likes to get realected, has wrong(keynes) or no economic ideas..
Gordon brawn responsible for selling half of brittains gold reserves for a bargain just to pressure euro...the point on chart is still called brawn buttom..
ok i stop could write a book what speaks against britain and pound in longtherm..
I place a buy OJ at 1.0350, El nino
ReplyDeleteAnthony
I just back will be back for update .... Today I think I might sell some position or take profit for all position ... Talk later
ReplyDeletePred,
ReplyDeleteare you selling Gold & Silver as well? How about our Wheat & Corn?
Anthony
Preditor 1976:
ReplyDeleteGreat Site. Read your blog every day.
Bob G
what happens to Crude Oil ??
ReplyDeleteAnthony
Hi everyone...
ReplyDeleteI am opening a new tread
Pred,
ReplyDeletewhere's the tread ? Not there
want to know about Oil, Gold. I think gold will go down a bit next week, too overbot??
Anthony