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Friday, October 23, 2009

"Treasury Auction " opportunity to buy commodity on dip. What next for equity?

On th Wednesday, I have wrote something ( link to the http://realityinvestment.blogspot.com/2009/10/running-late-today-but-hope-to-squeeze.html ) commentary on treasury auction here is the quote"please beware if there is any treasury auction announce somewhere the next two week, take some profit of the table and wait to the re-enter the market on dip." After this commentary post, the next next day the treasury auction announce ...


I like use this as main indicator for my invest, so the coming next will be a slight bumpy week. I am expecting some short term pressure on All asset class but it should not be a "big pressure " anticioate a mild correction in commodity and asset class and dollar should regain some strength..

Russia gold sales ...this is a story should be follow. But I still doubt the source of this NEWS .

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/10/23/2009-10-23T134018Z_01_LN274842_RTRIDST_0_GOLD-RUSSIA-UPDATE-3.html

Why is Treasury Auction is always have impact on equity or asset class price...

The auction usually will pull short term fund out of market, so you will always see a short pull back before or during treasury auction period with dollar regain some strength.

I expect the pull back and dollar strength will be very short live so any dip from now should be a buy.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jMxes7aV1luYaSoMiV7nrcefUB9wD9BH1Q684
...

Today snapshot:

South Korea’s GDP Expands at Fastest Pace in 7 Years ...and indicator of Global economy is recovering, while the US is still stop bleeding . Look like the korea will have to raise interest faster then anticipate, and there will be a few asia economy will follow suit in raising rate while the Fed have no target when to raise the rate... Like one of the Fed officer said"as long is it take".
For me it is another sigh of Dollar weakeness.

So Global equity is now in Bull market where USA will follow the trend... what the different?
the different is the percenyage increase in equity should slower then asia equity ..As you might have not notice, this time the Global economy is recovering without the support from US consumer ... interesting to take note ...

Well, my bet is now in commodity I expect a price breakout very soon ... sit on tight to soft commodity , oil and gold ...

Might be thinking of shift some investment from Gold to oil or soft commodity ... I will update in the blog.

If there is any dip in oil or commodity should use opportunity to buy if there in any dip.

will also look to short treasury this week..

Hope all will have a good trading week

Conclusion:

dollar might regain some strength early in the week, and resume weakness trend once he treasury auction end.

Equity should be on upward momentun might have meet some pressure during the week.

Commodity will do every well for week to come ....

is Oil over price.. I afraid to predict that we will move higher US$85.00US$90.00 is on card ...








19 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...

    Pred,
    we have a big drop on Crude Oil yeterday. Do you think this rally is over??? Gold may go down to less than $1000/oz ? Dollar really go up, looks strong bounce ? So, what to do with Oil, Wheat, Corn, Silver ? I am confuse looking at US Dollar's direction. How come it looks like go up but fundamental so weak?
    Anthony
    October 24, 2009 1:03 AM

    =============

    Hi Anthony,

    The oil going higher , Gold consildation and will move higher too ... Dollar weakness trend intact ... Treasury auction week so dollar will get some short term love :)

    ======
    mambo said...

    hi pred,

    dba is deutche's etf on their agri index that tracks wheat, corn, soybean and sugar with 25% weighting each. dag is a 2x note on dba.

    i dun play futures, so this 2 etf/n are my best instruments.

    I'm a agriculture bull and own some POT, sitting on some 10% paper profit. So now, I'm just waiting a right time to go into the etf/etn directly.

    I missed the breakout that happened past 2 weeks, so now I'm not sure if i should buy on pullback or wait a while as the general short term trend in s&p is downward....



    Hi Mambo

    I think the commoditity is still effortable at this level eventhough it already gain 20% and there is still room to bound from here ... asny weakness should be opportunity entry posint .. look to a strong bull in coming week

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Pred! i love your insights, and I agree with your assessments on commodities. I am same age as you, good to see traders out age do so well. I agree asia about to raise rates; but are emerging markets (etf) a good buy at these prices even with 6+% gdp growth? Wondering when you think emerging markets look like a good trade to buy.It looks overpriced right now but could it keep going up with pullback her?. p.s. - I will be looking to build my major positions in gold and soft commodities on next dip. happy trading!

    ReplyDelete
  3. hi pred,
    today lot of stops to protect profit were hit,
    and a small los in wheat..out of short pound at 0,92
    sitting on 80%cash euro,still have mining etf and oil shares
    dont like this euro dollar chart at moment think ur right could be some dollarstrenght ahead..
    gold hm russia wants to sell,reminds me somehow on imf wantet to sell..pension funds still underinvestet.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXmYglOn5Sac

    ReplyDelete
  4. Pred,
    i sold all my oil at 80.150
    sitting on cash now. Soybeans got hit badly., still holding them. I think, you need to wait a bit longer for Oil to go down. Dollar gets lots of love today.
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  5. Pred,
    Should we Short Crude Oil ?? bad reversal.
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Anthony,

    If you would like to short on crude, make sure you put tight stop ..cause I think the crude will spring higher after the treasury auction, it is a healthy to take some profit off the table ..

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi OG,

    Welcome ... and thank you for your comment ..

    For your point of view, I guess everything have now over priced but one thing people don't take note is that I think dollar is greatly over supply so I am not surprise to see price inflation on all asset class and equity

    ReplyDelete
  8. Pred,
    how about our Wheat & Corn. Wheat has a very bad reversal today. Do you think, it still can go up more?
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  9. Pred,
    crude oil drops very severe today. like a dead cat; will it bounce or continue to trending up? Its Up trend already broken. I am shorting Crude...

    ReplyDelete
  10. hm looks like euro dollar wants to test older trendline 1,4800
    wheat fighting hard at 200mva 532.. hm today really takes balls of steel to be a buyer..just watching havent bought anything

    hope the dollar carrytraders arent getting scared..

    ReplyDelete
  11. Pred,
    i shorted Crude oil at 79.30, i think can go to 50% retracement at $74-$75, may be?
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  12. Today - Wednesday ,

    It is a buying opportunity, like said the contraction will be short live .. same as for the dollar strength. Don't get carry away by the market sentiment keep with the trading trend

    I have sell alot of stuff on friday after the treasury auction is annoucement . last week it being a busy week for me so did not have time to update my trading ...

    Now sitting on cash 65% will waiting to re-enter the market..

    Have to be careful buddy ...if you see profit from your short in oil price, please quickly book profit ...

    Will be away to manage business ... will upate the blog again later today ..

    Have a nice day everyone

    ReplyDelete
  13. Pred,
    my style is very easy. Whenever uptrend or downtrend line broken, i go short/Long. Oil may be go down more ? I stay short
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  14. Pred,
    i also reverse & Short Dec. Coffee. Anyone wants to short Coffee? Target at 115-125 level.
    Anthony

    ReplyDelete
  15. @anthony
    hm not feeling happy shorting comos at moment i stick with jim rogers..the printing so much money
    hm maybe should have waited till tomorror but bought short dollar euro..stop under major trendline 1,4800..atleast gleithner speaking should weaken dollar..

    Tuesday

    4-Week Bill Auction
    11:30 AM ET


    2-Yr Note Auction
    1:00 PM ET

    Timothy Geithner Speaks
    4:00 PM ET

    ReplyDelete
  16. Predictor-

    Why did you say "if there are any treasury announcements"?? Don't we know exatly when the announcements will be? Clearly, I'm confused.

    J

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi j,

    From you comment it seem you already know the treasury will held auction 2 week in advance , as the comment I post is last wednesday (please refer back to previous blog written on 20 of October...before the auction date annouced .. which Treasury annouce Thursday ..

    Usually the Treasury will notify 1 week in advance.Please let me know if I have miss out this import information where we can know the treasury before anouncement.

    This is a question: I would like to know when will be the next treasury after this week auction?

    If you ready hold value information it will be great assist in planning my investment


    thank you J in advance

    ReplyDelete
  18. @ pred,
    find this one usefull hms gave link..

    http://mam.econoday.com/bymonth.asp?cust=mam

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi allen

    thank you for your link.

    You can also track via http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

    It is almost the same ...

    ReplyDelete